Week 4 QPB (that's Quick Picks Blitz)

Happy Sunday, everyone! Enjoy all of today's action. For those who happen to be in Vegas or betting online, here's the express land to a cool $1 million! As always, home teams are BOLD.

Bears (+2) over Packers
I took the Bears to win the division during the preseason. And as up-and-down as they've looked so far, this is a game where they must protect their house. Tough to imagine Green Bay opening 1-3 after all the hype...but Jay Cutler finds a way.

Texans (-3) over Bills
The Texans got pasted last week by the Giants, and will be thrilled to return home. Star running back Arian Foster looks to be a go after missing last week, and he is Mr. Everything for the Houston offense.

Colts (-7.5) over Titans
The Titans kinda secretly stink, and Andrew Luck is the polar opposite of stinky. Colts pull away late in their home dome.

Panthers (+3.5) over Ravens
Former longtime Panther/now Raven Steve Smith has apparently promised some kind of mass mutiliation during this game, making it the must-see matchup in the 1pm hour. Not sure if the Panthers win outright, but that extra half-point in the 3.5 spread is just too tasty to ignore.

Jets (+1.5) over Lions
Just leave me be on this one.

Steelers (-7.5) over Bucs
There are so many things wrong in Tampa, it's scary. Backup quarterback Mike Glennon goes on the road to face an angry Steeler secondary. Pittsburgh is fresh off an impressive victory at Carolina and will not be messing around in banking this one.

Raiders (+4) over Miami
Oakland gave the Patriots eeeeeeverything they could handle last week, which should actually give some juice to the Black Hole home crowd. Miami is in quite a bit of disarray, and those cross-country trips are never pleasant. Take the points.

Jaguars (+13) over Chargers
The Blake Bortles era! 13 points! A trap game for San Diego? Probably not...but grab that preposterous amount of points and call it a day.

49ers (-5) over Eagles
Very tough matchup to pick. Philly is one of only 3 undefeated teams, and everybody's been wondering what's wrong in San Fran. I think all those doubts are put to rest today, as a high-scoding shootout goes to the Niners.

Falcons (-3) over Vikings
Teddy Bridgewater brings some much-needed intrigue to the QB position in Minnesota, but his weapons are just so limited. It's still very hard to trust Atlanta, but the spread seems just a bit too small- considering the circumstances.

Saints (-3) over Cowboys
This game's going to total 90+ points. The Saints' defense is juuuuuust a hair less crappier than the Cowboys. Lay the points and pray (and enjoy the offensive fireworks!)

Chiefs (+3.5) over Patriots
Jamaal Charles returning in primetime?? Call it the Upset of the Week. Chiefs 26, Patriots 21.


Riding the home teams like Secretariat this week! Thanks for reading and happy viewing, everyone.

NFL Week 3: Where Have All the Cupcakes Gone?

Each and every week, there are plenty of surprises to be had on the NFL gridiron. One of the reasons for its massive popularity is that on "Any Given Sunday," a heavy favorite can fall. It's what makes those Knockout Pick'em Pools so equally fun and frustrating.

But even for a league that's constantly celebrating its parity, the notion of favorite and underdogs has been skewed in a wild way these first two weeks. Three playoff teams from last year- the Saints, Colts, and Chiefs- are all licking their wounds at a combined 0-6. And in the meanwhile, teams whose wins were anticipated to be few and far between have been quite frisky thus far.

So let's recap what we've seen so far this season. Have some cupcakes become contenders? Are others just tasty-looking on the outside, but their inner fillings are gross? Without further adiue, NFL 2014's Cupcake Watch.

1. Buffalo Bills
Preseason Status: Longstanding culture of cupcak-ery
Blog's 2014 Projected Record: 6-10 (last in AFC East)
Through Two Games: These guys are the talk of the NFL! The Patriots have dominated their division since the turn of the millenium, and most anticipated that trend continuing this season. And if New England were to fall down a peg (wishful thinking going on 10 years now,) surely it would be Miami or the Jets who took the mantle, right? Well quarterback EJ Manuel and receiver Sammy Watkins are still just pups in this league, and they're playing like they never got the memo that Buffalo's been a perennial doormat. The Bills provided the shock of Week 1 when they upset the Bears in Chicago, and suffered no hangover whatsoever the following week when they throttled Miami at home. The Bills' rushing numbers both offensively and defensively have been tremendous, and Manuel has shown moxy. All the worry and mystery surronding the team's sale has been largely alleviated, and the Bills have played fantastic football.
Verdict: No longer cupcake, Wild Card contender

2. Cleveland Browns
Preseason Status: Hopes that Johnny Football could rescue them from cupcak-ery
Blog's 2014 Projected Record: 4-12 (last in AFC North)
Through Two Games: The Browns entered 14 with bucketfuls of bad karma. Their premier playmaker, wide receiver Josh Gordon, appeared to screw everything up with his season-long drug suspension. Though Cleveland had some ability on defense, the Gordon-less attack appeared to lack any kind of threats. Throw in the fact that the coaching staff seemed to have no clue what they wanted in terms of incumbent quarterback Brian Hoyer vs. hotshot rookie Johnny Manziel...and things looked beyond bleak. But the Browns went on the road in Week 1 to give Pittsburgh all they could handle (Steelers won on a last-second field goal). And in Week 2, the Browns were hosting an 0-1 Saints team looking to blow them out of the building...and it was CLEVELAND who shocked the NFL with a last-second field goal victory. Hoyer has played smart, capable football; the rushing attack has been sound; and the defense held a desperate Saints offense to a modest 24 points. Can they be for real? They have a surprisingly easy schedule over the next six weeks that may indeed beef up their record. But that lack of offense will eventually bite them.
Verdict: A much friskier cupcake than anticipated

3. Jacksonville Jaguars and 4. Oakland Raiders
Preseason Statuses: Two biggest cupcakes in football
Blog's 2014 Projected Record: Jacksonville 3-13 (Last in AFC South); Oakland 5-11 (Last in AFC West)
Through Two Games: We'll loop these two together because their tales are similar. Expected to be the prime contenders for the No. 1 pick in the 2015 Draft, both the Jaguars and Raiders went out on the road in Week 1 and were surprisingly competitive. The Jags had every Eagles fan reaching for industrial-strength Rolaids, jumping out to a huge lead on Philadelphia before the Birds woke up and notched a comfortable victory. The Raiders, meanwhile, gave the Jets quite a fight into the 4th quarter before bowing out. Unfortunately, both teams got their doors blown off in Week 2. Jacksonville lost 41-10 on the road to the Redskins while Oakland "celebrated" their home opener with a 30-14 loss to Houston. The metrics look ugly for both teams, leaving many to wonder if the Week 1 close battles will be among the season's highlights.
Verdict: As cupcak-ey as foreseen

5. Kansas City Chiefs and 6. Carolina Panthers
Preseason Statuses: 2013 playoff team due for a tumble into cupcake-ry
Blog's 2014 Projected Record: Kansas City 5-11 (3rd in AFC West); Carolina 7-9 (2nd in NFC South)
Through Two Games: A Tale of Two Bakeries. Kansas City has had a miserable start to the year, beginning with a road shellacking at the hands of (cupcake-fringe) Tennessee. The one-touchdown loss on the road to Denver looks encouraging, but the Chiefs caught a terrible break when star player Jamaal Charles went down with an ankle sprain. Charles was Mr. Everything for Kansas City last year, and it will be an enormous hit for the offense if he's out an extended period. The Chiefs are not nearly as bad as the other cupcakes, of course. But an upcoming schedule of Miami, New England, San Francisco and San Diego may have their record spiral out of control.
Carolina, meanwhile, absorbed all the doubters and haters during the preseason and didn't let it bother them one bit. Even with superstar quarterback Cam Newton hurt in Week 1, the Panthers went on the road to stun divisional foe Tampa Bay. And in Week 2's return of Cam, it was the defense who stole the show- holding Detroit's quality offense to just seven points. With the uncertainty of Tampa, Atlanta, and the shockingly 0-2 New Orleans within the division, Carolina is right where they want to be.
Verdict: Neither are cupcakes; Kansas City not a playoff contender due to schedule/injury. Carolina is as good a bet as any to win the NFC South once again.

7. St. Louis Rams
Preseason Status: Wounded cupcake in an impossible division
Blog's 2014 Projected Record: 4-12 (Last in NFC West)
Through Two Games: This one is really tough to gauge. That 4-12 projected record looked like a mirage after Week 1's 34-6 home bludgeoning at the hands of Minnesota. Quarterback Sam Bradford is hurt...playmaking defender Chris Long is hurt...and all hope seems lost. But then some guy named Austin Davis took over at QB and shocked Tampa Bay on the road. Besides star defenser Robert Quinn, St. Louis doesn't have anybody who will jump off the roster at you. But in a league where passing means everything, these guys are #5 in pass defense. Can they be for real? Absolutely not. But that win over Tampa was a good one for the fans.
Verdict: Minus Austin Davis' one shining moment, bonafide cupcake.


So there you have it! As far as tonight's game, take the hosting Falcons (-6.5) to beat down the Bucs. Tampa is scary close to cupcake territory, while Atlanta sees an NFC South divison up for the taking- having already beaten New Orleans earlier this season.

Thanks for reading!!

Sunday Smash- NFL Week 2

Greetings, all! A quick NFL picks blitz for your Week 2 viewing enjoyment! As always, home team is in bold.

Dolphins (-1.5) over Bills

Two teams that everybody’s going goo-goo gah-gah for after Week 1. The Dolphins toppled mighty New England in convincing fashion while the Bills went on the road and shocked the Bears in Chicago. The Bills crowd is sure to be raucous and it’s tough to trust Ryan Tannehill on the road, but if the Dolphins caused so many fits for Tom Brady last week, it’s tough to see EJ Manuel overcoming those same obstacles. Miami 24, Buffalo 20

Jaguars (+5) over Redskins

Jacksonville put a scare into a whole slew of “suicide pool” participants who picked against them last week, as the Jaguars bludgeoned the Eagles for an entire half before falling apart. This pick is more anti-Washington than pro-Jacksonville, as the Redskins haven’t shown anything that warrants them being a 5 point favorite, regardless of opponent. Jacksonville is frisky and will keep this one close. Washington 28, Jacksonville 27

Cowboys (+3) over Titans

Leave Dallas alone!!! It was a rough Week 1 for the Cowboys- to say the least. Everyone said they were going to get creamed…and then they got creamed. And at home, no less. The Cowboys hate has become a little much, and they have the offensive talent to go toe-to-toe with Tennessee. Dallas 20, Tennessee 15

Cardinals (+2) over Giants

Last week, the Giants looked like a team that didn’t have a preseason of preparation. Until Big Blue’s offense makes some significant leaps forward, it’s very tough to trust them. Arizona is coming across the country to play in the early timeslot, but the Cards defense will have their way with the Giants. Arizona 17, Giants 6

Patriots (-3) over Vikings

The Adrian Peterson story overshadows everything that will take place on the field in Minnesota, and it’s tough to imagine the Vikings having much of a chance without him. Unless Cordarrell Patterson has a circus-like game, Minnesota won’t be able to keep up with the unfamiliar-ly 0-1 Pats. New England 30, Minnesota 20

Saints (-5) over Browns

The Saints are certainly kicking themselves after blowing Week 1’s divisional game against the Falcons. The Browns defense is stout, and went on the road to give Pittsburgh all it could handle in Week 1. But New Orleans will be too much to handle. New Orleans 27, Cleveland 17

Falcons (+5) over Bengals

Can Atlanta be for real? Last week’s win over the Saints was undeniably impressive, as Matt Ryan put up video game-like stats. Cincinnati notched an impressive win themselves last week, going on the road to topple Baltimore. But still, 5 points seems like a staggering line for this one. Take the points and be safe. Cincinnati 20, Atlanta 19

Panthers (Pickem!) over Lions

Cammy Cam’s back. ‘Nuff said. (**this pick is not objective nor thought-inducing.) Carolina 27, Detroit 21

Chargers (+5) over Seahawks

Perhaps the toughest game of the week to pick. It seems no spread could be too high for Seattle when they’re playing at home. But on the road? Against a sneaky-good Charger squad? When in doubt, I’m taking the lofty spread. But far and away my least confident pick of the week. Seattle 21, San Diego 17

Jets (+7) over Packers

Oh, wait. THIS is my least confident pick of the week. Run, run, run. And then run some more. It’s the Jets gameplan that everybody’s expecting, as Green Bay can be pushed around defensively and Aaron Rodgers is least terrifying while on the sidelines. It would not shock me in the least bit if the Jets lost by two touchdowns (or worse), but if the run game is working from start to finish, this one could go down to the wire. Green Bay 26, Jets 21

Texans (-3) over Raiders

The Raiders- like most underdogs- were quite frisky in Week 1. But Houston’s defense showed glimmers of dominance last week. And despite the friendly confines of Oakland, I see the Texans pulling away late in this one. Houston 23, Oakland 10

Broncos (-11.5) over Chiefs

Always tough laying this many points. But perhaps Denver is a little ornery over how close things got last week against Indy. Throw in the fact that it’s a divisional game…and it doesn’t appear Peyton & co will be messing around this week. Denver 37, Kansas City 20

Colts (-3) over Eagles

Speaking of Indy, tough to see them starting 0-2. The Eagles got overmatched by Chad Henne for an entire half last week, so all-world talent Andrew Luck should fine plenty of open receivers all day. Philly’s offense is as scary as it gets when they’re clicking, but again…Andrew Luck’s not starting 0-2. No way Jose. Indianapolis 26, Philadelphia 21

CTR Lock of the Week

Bucs (-4) over Rams
Seems like the safest bet. The Rams don’t have a legitimate quarterback, and they’re on the road. Tampa got all kinds of love (probably too much) before the season started, only to go belly-up against the Cam-less Panthers last week. They bounce back in a big way at home. Tampa Bay 27, St. Louis 6

CTR Upset Special

Bears (+7) over 49ers
You betcha! Despite last week’s beatdown of the Cowboys, I’m not convinced all is hunky dory in San Fran. Chicago’s beastly receivers are both hobbled, which makes it scary. But I see a monster day from Matt Forte and the Bears, shocking the Niners in primetime. Chicago 24, San Francisco 23

Enjoy all the action!!

Monday Mash: Processing Week 1 & Ray Rice Saga

Welcome to the return of the Monday Mash, a weekly recap of Sunday's NFL action. Well, at least typically it is. After all that's gone on today regarding Baltimore running back Ray Rice, I think it's best to start with the sports topic that's gripped the nation all day Monday.

For starters, it's hard to believe this fiasco started all the way back in mid-February. Since then, the missteps from everyone involved (NFL, media, Rice, fans, etc.) have been nearly incalculable. A bare-bones timeline of events:

• Feb 15- Ray Rice and his fiance Janay Palmer are both arrested on simple assault charges in Atlantic City.
• Feb 19- TMZ releases a video from the incident, in which Rice drags a limp/unconscious Palmer out of an elevator.
• Mar 27- Rice indicted on third degree assault.
• May 20- Rice accepts a pretrial treatment program and thus avoids prosecution.
• July 27- NFL Commish Roger Goodell suspends Rice for two games.
• July 27 through Aug 27- National outcry over the light suspension
• Aug 28- NFL strengthens penalties for domestic abuse cases.
• Sept 8- TMZ releases second video from inside the elevator. Overwhelming additional outcry nationally, Ravens cut Rice, Goodell suspends Rice from NFL indefinitely.

(courtesy: http://espn.go.com/espnw/news-commentary/article/11489146/a-timeline-nfl-ravens-reactions-ray-rice-incident)

Of course, I don't know all the details and facts. Not even close. So instead of unqualified preachings, here are just some outward wonderings:

1. Where is all the power in the NFL?? There is no more "four major sports" in America. Football has blown away all other athletic leagues, and it's not even remotely close. The league essentially poops billions. I find it outrageously strange that TMfreakinZ seems like the captain of this ship throughout. The Rice situation created a big problem with an employee in this colossus of a business. How could the NFL continually act like the confused, timid child in the corner of the room rather than Head Honcho?
2. Following the release of today's video, Goodell has come under fire. Accusations are now abound as to whether the commissioner had already seen what was revealed today, and was simply hoping this thing would blow over and/or nobody else would see it. It's very hard to believe that such a powerful man could be so dumb. But at the same time, it's equally tough to absorb that when it comes to uncovering the truth of an NFL player, the pecking order appears to be 1. TMZ and 2. NFL.
3. At the end of the day, what was the ultimate significance of today's video release? More importantly, why didn't the first video do enough in terms of shock value? Clearly, the NFL has an "out" in that it can claim Rice wasn't truthful in his description of events. Maybe Rice claimed it was a terrible accident of he was acting in self-defense. Well, today it was revealed it certainly wasn't a instantaneous brush with insanity (Rice hits her once, and then strikes back again), and perhaps the most chilling parts of the video was the 30 seconds following the knockout, with Rice nonchalantly standing there...not a care in the world.
4. Rice and Palmer got married on March 28, in the midst of all this. Just another tidbit that makes it seem almost like it's not real-life.

Whatever the case, Ray Rice is no longer in the NFL after what he did to his fiance/wife. Which seems to now be a universally approved decision. But why it took so long for Goodell to first make a suspension announcement...why that first suspension was so lenient...why TMZ was always the driving force...and why Goodell continues his silence now (12 hours and counting)...these are the disturbing questions that linger. 

Ray Rice has come and gone. And unless there is some well-articulated (and not insultingly ridiculous) explanations from the NFL soon, many wonder whether Goodell may be next to go.

2014 NFL Bonanza (Entirely Too Long) Preview

Welcome back to where it all started!!

After quite a few years on NYSportBlog.com, that site seems to have been taken by the government and I cannot get it back. So after a long 3+ year departure, I'm proud to declare:

creillysports.blogspot.com. So much history. So much grandeur. And at least for the foreseeable future, we're BACK.

September has arrived, which means football is on the horizon. So just like a few other billion blowhards across the country, better get some 2014 NFL season picks out there! Division-by-division projected results, with some extra coverage given to the hometown NY squads (hopefully their play this season warrants it?)

In any case, 2014 will be a redemption year. I can't link to last year's preview- because the site's been kidnapped as noted above. But my proposed Super Bowl was Houston vs. Atlanta. Combined record for those two teams last year: 6-26. No joke.

So hopefully that gaffe is just a 'glancing blow' to my credibility rather than a killshot. Time will tell. And it's time to get goin'.

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles

2013 record: 10-6

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 10-6, NFC East Champions

Summary: The Eagles pulled the worst-to-first trick last season, thanks to new head coach Chip Kelly bringing his fast-paced offense to the NFL. Sure enough, Philly put up the 2nd most points in the NFC last season. The defense is not quite as world-burning, but despite the surprising ousting of receiver DeSean Jackson, Philly is still comfortably the cast of what projects to again be another weak East division.

2. Washington Redskins

2013 record: 3-13

Trending: Upward

2014 projection: 8-8, miss playoffs

Summary: While Philly is the safe pick to win this division, how the next three teams finish is pretty much a crapshoot. Contrary to the Eagles, Washington did the more unpleasant first-to-worst turnaround last season. While he was the savior as a rookie, Robert Griffin III was a disaster both physically and performance-ly in his 2013 sophomore campaign. The aforementioned Jackson landed in D.C. after leaving the Eagles, and forms a great receiver duo with Pierre Garcon. Griffin has the weapons to bounce-back, but it will be an up-and-down season.

3. Dallas Cowboys

2013 record: 8-8

Trending: (forever) Neutral

2014 projection: 8-8, miss playoffs

Summary: In an NFL predicated on constant change and parity, the Cowboys have stubbornly gone 8-8 in each of the past 3 seasons, maddening their fans in the process. Tony Romo still has his demons when big games are on the line, and he will be asked to do more than ever this season- because the Cowboys defense will be amongst the very worst in the league. Romo and Dez Bryant will light up fantasy scores every week trying to keep up, but it's going to be tough week after week.

4. New York Giants

2013 record: 7-9

Trending: Downward

2014 projection: 6-10, miss playoffs

Summary: Please, no riots in the tri-state area. A very controversial projection for one of our hometown teams, I know. The Giants have undergone an enormous transition this offseason, in both personnel and offensive philosophy. Any fan that has watched the preseason execution on offense has come away with a whole lot of worry. After the worst season of his career (27 interceptions), Eli Manning has looked uncomfortable trying to learn all the new jibber-jabber. He'll still have weapons Victor Cruz and Reuben Randle on the outside, but the offensive line and tight end positions are very, very thin for these Giants. Throw in the sadly forced retirement of youngster running back David Wilson, and there's just a bad energy that seems to be going on.

But one thing Big Blue has going for it is a very stingy secondary on defense. Now more than ever, the NFL is a passing league. And these guys can cover. If Jason Pierre-Paul can jump back to his superstar form on the line, he can wreck games on his own. I'd be surprised if the Giants indeed finished with only six wins, but unless Eli and the offense have pulled the wool over everybody's eyes, this new offense looks like it will have some serious bumps along the way. New York will feel pressure early in the season not to repeat history- as the Giants started a ghastly 0-6 last season before finishing strong.

NFC North

1. Chicago Bears

2013 record: 8-8

Trending: Upward

2014 projection: 11-5, NFC North Champions

Summary: Yes, this prediction was made before Green Bay got toasted by Seattle this past Thursday. Many foresee the Packers coming out on top in this division, but I'm liking these frisky Bears. Quarterback Jay Cutler struggled to stay healthy last season, but he is back and has all kinds of firepower surrounding him. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett are all elite in their respective positions, and Chicago is sound on both sides of the line. The defense won't live up to its longstanding historic reputation, but the Bears will be able to score with anybody- Green Bay included- and that offense will power Chicago to its first division title since 2010.

2. Green Bay Packers

2013 record: 8-7-1

Trending: Upward

2014 projection: 10-6, Wild Card team

Summary: Yikes, we all nearly forgot that an 8-7-1 record was enough to win the NFC North last season for Green Bay. In fairness to the Packers, their all-world quarterback Aaron Rodgers was unhealthy for giant chunks of last season. Fully healthy, he'll be worth a handful of wins on his own. Also missing time last season was star receiver Randall Cobb, who joins Jordy Nelson to create quite a tandem for Rodgers. Just like last season, Green Bay and Chicago are neck-and-neck in talent, and Green Bay his big name players like Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers on the defense. The Packers will be playoff bound.

3. Minnesota Vikings

2013 record: 5-10-1

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 7-9, miss playoffs

Summary: I like these Vikes! With Cutler, Rodgers, and Detroit's Matthew Stafford all prolific chuckers of the football, many are finding it hard to believe in Minnesota's ability to keep up. While Matt Cassel may not be an elite quarterback (or even a particularly good one), rookie Teddy Bridgewater is waiting in the wings, Cordarrelle Patterson will have a breakout year at receiver, and running back Adrian Peterson is still in his prime. Opponents will also find it strange visiting Minnesota and not playing in their dome- the Vikings will be temporary residents of the University of Minnesota's outdoor stadium as their new digs are being built. Freezing outdoor Minnesota temps come December? Sneaky late-season run for the Vikings! Their record will be respectable.

4. Detroit Lions

2013 record: 7-9

Trending: Downward

2014 projection: 5-11, miss playoffs

Summary: A tough projection personally, as I have always rooted for Detroit when all things are even. But while Stafford's throwing to Calvin Johnson and the no-rules rampage style of play Ndamukong Suh and the defense provides is fun to watch, I think the league has caught up. Even maniac coach Jim Schwartz has come and gone. Detroit has the feel of a team where if things start well, then its on. But if things get tough, they haven't displayed the ability to rise up and overcome. Needless to say, the schedule looks rough and the Lions look to have a quiet season on the horizon.

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints

2013 record: 11-5

Trending: Upward

2014 projection: 10-6, NFC South Champions

Summary: The Saints just keep ticking. Quarterback Drew Brees continues to get the absolute best out of the pass catchers around him, and tight end Jimmy Graham has a historic 2013 season. Seattle has taken the crown as "Best Homefield Advantage in the NFL" - and justifiably so- but nobody ever wins in New Orleans' dome either. In what has become an annual storyline in the midseason, "Seattle vs. New Orleans homefield advantage battle" will rear its head yet again. The South looks uncharacteristically weak this season, and the Saints should reign comfortably.

2. Carolina Panthers

2013 record: 12-4

Trending: Downward

2014 projection: 7-9, miss playoffs

Summary: The most fun team of 2013 has gotten all kinds of hate this offseason. Gone are stalwart Steve Smith and all the other noteworthy receivers of last year, replaced by a less impressive bunch. Star quarterback Cam Newton is back and should be entering his prime years, but questions about his lack of offensive stars and also his health continue to linger. The defense, led by Luke Kuechly, should again be good, but not quite the destructive bunch that turned the tide of so many games last season. I think the Panthers will compete better than most people are giving them credit for, but I don't see another magical playoff run.

3. Atlanta Falcons

2013 record: 4-12

Trending: Upward

2014 projection: 6-10, miss playoffs

Summary: This is admittedly a rough projection for the talented Falcons, but I'm still scarred by that doom-fated Super Bowl prediction from last season. If Matt Ryan bounces back and plays to his potential, Atlanta can easily throw its hat in the ring for a Wild Card spot. But receiver Roddy White and running back Steven Jackson are another year older, and must stay healthy for the entire season. Along with superstar Julio Jones, the Falcons have bigtime playmakers. Which is good, because its defense certainly won't be mistaken for Seattle's anytime soon.

4. Tampa Bay Bucs

2013 record: 4-12

Trending: Upward

2014 projection: 6-10, miss playoffs

Summary: Well, SOMEBODY's gotta finish last, right? If Carolina has gotten all the negative vibes this offseason, it seems all the positive vibes have migrated to Tampa. New coach Lovie Smith is respected across the entire league, and new quarterback Josh McCown played tremendously when forced into duty last year in Chicago. Already projected as a major sleeper to make a playoff run, I see Tampa as improved yet losing some close, painful games within the division. They will be a tough out every single game, but think they will need one year to adjust to Lovie before making a big leap next season.

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks

2013 record: 13-3, Super Bowl Champs

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 13-3, NFC West Champions

Summary: You know all about it, folks. Seattle throttled Denver in the Super Bowl last season, and have lost very little talent nor- seemingly- desire since then. Repeat championships in the NFL is as tough as it gets, but the Hawks have the ingredients. Russell Wilson gains more experience every game, Marshawn Lynch is still a monster at running back, a healthy Percy Harvin showed Thursday that he is a nightmare to play against, and Seattle has far and away the best defense and homefield advantage in the sport. Any questions?

2. Arizona Cardinals

2013 record: 10-6

Trending: Upward

2014 projection: 9-7, Wild Card team

Summary: Commonly referred to as the "Best team to not make the playoffs" in 2013, I think the Cards get over the hump this season. As tough as the division was last season, it's remarkable Arizona kept up to the tune of a 10-6 record. An up-and-coming defense keyed the Cards' success last season, and that same defense has gotten some cold-water dumped on it during this preseason. But I still see playmakers on that side of the ball, while quarterback Carson Palmer, runner Andre Ellington, and receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd all have ability on offense. I'm not talking Super Bowl for these guys...but 9-7 will be enough for the playoffs.

3. San Francisco 49ers

2013 record: 12-4

Trending: Downward

2014 projection: 8-8, miss playoffs

Summary: A playoff stalwart since Jim Harbaugh took over as coach in 2011, it was a wacky offseason for the Niners. None of it was pleasant. There was a bizarre rumor that Harbaugh may be traded (really) to Cleveland, the once-dominant defense continues to either gain more mileage or lose players to free agency/legal problems. Has the window rapidly closed in San Francisco? Probably not completely. But there's not a great aura surrounding them. Colin Kaepernick may be polarizing, but's he's got a whole world of talent. Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis are impressive weapons themselves. But in a perennially tough division, it looks to be a rare down year by the bay.

4. St. Louis Rams

2013 record: 7-9

Trending: Downward

2014 projection: 4-12, miss playoffs

Summary: The Rams certainly had potential as a sneaky-frisky team this season, but caught a terrible break when quarterback Sam Bradford went down for the season. The Rams' defense is amongst the league's best, and coach Jeff Fisher sure knows what he's doing...but they're starting Shaun Hill at quarterback. Every week. In this division. Just way too much to ask.

AFC East

1. New England Patriots

2013 record: 12-4

Trending: Upward

2014 projection: 12-4, AFC East Champions

Summary: Pretty much a carbon copy of the Saints summary above. The Pats have a great quarterback and are extremely good at home. Even with a bevy of defensive injuries last season, New England had no problems making a postseason run. They get all defenders back- as well as Darrelle Revis in the secondary. Throw in a supposed (and long-awaited) healthy year from Rob Gronkowski...and it's very tough to envision anybody but the Pats on top in this division.

2. New York Jets

2013 record: 8-8

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 9-7, miss playoffs

Summary: Nobody knows what to expect. Give anybody a few minutes, and they could make a compelling argument for the Jets to be 5-11 (terrible cornerback situation, Geno Smith's unpredictability, still lack offensive playmakers) or be 10-6 (elite defensive front, team went 8-8 and made improvements on offense, (again) Geno Smith's unpredictability.

The defensive backs are a serious issue. Since the Rex Ryan era began, Jets fans have been spoiled with some top-notch corners (Revis, Antonio Cromartie, etc.) It will be a drastic and humbling disappointment for fans to see "how the other half" lives in terms of trying to survive the pass-happy NFL with incapable defensive backs.

I'm a believer in the offensive upgrades (running back Chris Johnson, receiver Eric Decker) though I admit the Michael Vick situation has been a little strange in his outright acceptance to be the backup. But though I subscribe that overall the talent is better on this team than the one that went 8-8 last season. But playoffs? I think a particularly brutal schedule will keep that from happening. After opening with a (seemingly- be careful) cupcake game against Oakland at home, the Jets play a consecutive stretch against Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, and New England.

WHAAAAAAAAAT??

Granted, things get way more cozy in the second half of the season. But will the hole already be too deep. The Jets play 10 games before their bye week. If they can scrape by at 5-5 until that point, there can be a serious postseason run in play. But with the defensive back turmoil facing that hellacious early season slate of opponents, things may just be too tough.

3. Miami Dolphins

2013 record: 8-8

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 7-9, miss playoffs

Summary: Miami's fullblown bullying scandal torpedo'd its season in 2013, and many folks foresee a bigtime turnaround for the 'Phins. Like nearly every NFL team, this one will come down to quarterback play. Ryan Tannehill has proved himself as capable, but can he make the jump and propel Miami to the playoffs? He has decent weapons around him like Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline, but Miami's offensive line will have to prove its turned the corner, because Tannehill got blasted far too many times last season. Divisional games against the Jets and Bills will make or break Miami's playoff chances.

4. Buffalo Bills

2013 record: 6-10

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 6-10, miss playoffs

Summary: Typically not a very exciting bunch, Buffalo sure made a splash on draft day when it traded up to grab receiver Sammy Watkins. Watkins has superstar potential, and running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson continue to be effective in their roles. Though sneaky good last season, the Bills defense lost top playmakers Jairus Byrd in free agency and Kiko Alonso to injury. And the question lingers as to whether quarterback EJ Manuel is any good. This blog's official stance: No.

AFC North

1. Cincinnati Bengals 

2013 record: 11-5

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 11-5, AFC North Champions

Summary: It hasn't been a quiet offseason in Cincy, particularly for its quarterback. Andy Dalton has enjoyed plenty of success during his entire regular season career, only to go all Ryan Lead come playoff time. The uproar came when the Bengals inked Dalton to a monster contract this offseason, so it's time to put up or shut up when it comes to the playoffs. But there's enough talent on this Bengals squad to make sure he gets the chance. AJ Green and Gio Bernard are both electrifying at their positions, and an already capable defense gets superstan Geno Atkins back from injury. I'm lukewarm on the rest of this division, and think the Bengals will win it with room to spare.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers 

2013 record: 8-8

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 8-8, miss playoffs

Summary: I don't know what word to use describing this team. Is 'flaccid' offensive? I hope not. The're solid yet unspectacular on offense, the defense won't live up to its reputation...they're a team that you're not scared of and yet don't want to play. The best thing Pittsburgh has going for it is the long-standing coach-qb combo of Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger. You can't put a value on that. They'll be in playoff contention- just like always- but don't see them quite getting there. Just too flaccid.

3. Baltimore Ravens

2013 record: 8-8

Trending: Downward

2014 projection: 7-9, miss playoffs

Summary: The Ravens and Steelers always seem to be joined at the hip, and that also applies to this preview. This defense isn't the vaunted unit of years past, and quarterback Joe Flacco looks to regain his Super Bowl hero form instead of...whatever form that was in 2013. Steve Smith can be a sneaky-good acquisition for the offense, but the "bad vibes" hunch applies bigtime here following the whole Ray Rice fiasco. Baltimore will hang around just like Pittsburgh, but also ultimately fall short.

4. Cleveland Browns

2013 record: 4-12

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 4-12, miss playoffs

Summary: Just an insane offseason. Cleveland lost its best player and perhaps the best receiver on the planet in Josh Gordon, suspended seemingly for the entire season for substance abuse. The Browns drafted Johnny Manziel to be its savor, only to have a bumbling situation whether to start Johnny Football or incumbent Brian Hoyer out of the gate. With Gordon gone, neither quarterback has much to work with whatsoever. Cleveland's defense, however, certainly gives it hope to at least be competitive. Joe Haden & co. won't make life easy for opposing offenses. And if Johnny Football is given the reins and provides some magic, a .500 record may not be out of the question.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans

2013 record: 2-14

Trending: Upwards

2014 projection: 11-5, AFC South Champions

Summary: Admittedly, it's been a predictable bunch of playoff teams prognosticated so far. So I'll hitch my crazy-horse to Houston. Yes, the last time Houston won a game that counted was September 15 2013...before losing 14 straight on its way to football's worst record. But it was a ridiculous season as a whole. Quarterback Matt Schaub fell apart, running back Arian Foster got hurt, and things just spiraled. Ryan Fitzpatrick is no Joe Montana, but he's never really totally sucked...and now gets to chuck it to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. If Foster comes back strong and JJ Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Brian Cushing lead a defensive revival, new coach Bill O'Brien and the Texans absolutely have the ingredients to play January football.

2. Indianapolis Colts

2013 record: 11-5

Trending: Downward

2014 projection: 9-7, Wild Card team

Summary: Andrew Luck is a terrifying monster at quarterback- please consult last year's playoff game against Kansas City for reference. But one of these years, the Colts need to catch some bad breaks. Even in a projected 'down' season, I still see Indy in the playoffs because they'll get to beat up on divisional weak links Tennessee and Jacksonville. Luck will continue to grow as a superstar, and has some nice toys in receivers T.Y. Hilton, Hakeem Nicks, and ageless Reggie Wayne. But the defense will let down on more than one occasion, and playing that tough first place schedule (starting with Denver in Week 1) will have Indy settling for a Wild Card.

3. Tennessee Titans

2013 record: 7-9

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 7-9, miss playoffs

Summary: The 7-9 projection may even be a little generous for Tennessee. They are middle of the pack both offensively and defensively, and are banking for quarterback Jake Locker to make a significant leap forward in 2014. I'm actually a Locker believer, but even with solid play from him as well as receivers Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, the Titans won't quite be in the playoff mix for at least another season.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

2013 record: 4-12

Trending: Downward

2014 projection: 3-13, miss playoffs

Summary: These guys irreparably stink.

AFC West

1. Denver Broncos

2013 record: 13-3, Lost Super Bowl

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 14-2, AFC West Champions

Summary: A very lofty projection, but now I think Peyton Manning is angry combined with embarrassed combined with the realization that he can't do this much longer. I don't think those three elixirs have been combined yet, even in his record setting 2013 season. The schedule is tough with Indy, New England, Seattle, and two Charger games...but the Broncos won't take any chances in going all-out for homefield, and I see DeMarcus Ware, Von Miller, and Aqib Talib keeping up with the offense's huge production. They are the clear frontrunner in the AFC.

2. San Diego Chargers

2013 record: 9-7

Trending: Upward

2014 projection: 10-6, Wild Card team

Summary: Another team getting a whole lot of buzz as a deep-run playoff crasher. I'm buying in. Philip Rivers was crazy good last season, and Keenan Allen is a superstar receiver with another year under his belt. Its defense boats playmakers Melvin Ingram, Dwight Freeney, Manti Teo and Brandon Flowers, and the Chargers will enjoy the similar luxury as Indy, trouncing underwhelming division foes Kansas City and Oakland. It will be enough for a  consecutive postseason berth.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

2013 record: 11-5

Trending: Downward

2014 projection: 5-11, miss playoffs 

Summary: Very similar vibes to Carolina. A magic season in 2013 may turn sour very quickly in Kansas City. Its defense is due to come back to earth after its absurd performance last season. And though runner Jamaal Charles is a stud, the offense lacks top-notch playmakers in any other department. Playing alongside the Broncos and Chargers as part of its tough schedule from going 11-5 last season, the Chiefs are bound for a steep fall.

4. Oakland Raiders

2013 record: 4-12 

Trending: Neutral

2014 projection: 5-11, miss playoffs

Summary: They stink...but I'm mildly intrigued. (and of course terrified the new look offense with rookie quarterback Derek Carr and veteran running back Maurice Jones Drew will shock the Jets in Week 1.) But unless Justin Tuck and LaMarr Woodley find the fountain of youth very quickly, folks are going to score on Oakland at will. They won't be the doormats everybody's been accustomed to.

Okay. So quick playoffs summary after that 2.9 trillion word regular season preview:

NFC Wild Card

(6) Cardinals over (3) Eagles

(4) Saints over (5) Packers

NFC Divisional

(1) Seahawks over (6) Cardinals

(4) Saints over (2) Bears

NFC Championship

(4) Saints over (1) Seahawks

AFC Wild Card

(3) Bengals over (6) Colts

(5) Chargers over (4) Texans

AFC Divisional

(3) Bengals over (2) Patriots

(1) Broncos over (5) Chargers

AFC Championship

(1) Broncos over (3) Bengals

SUPER BOWL XLIX

Saints 31, Broncos 24

Welp, there you have it. And I know you need just a little more. So a lightning round of Week 1 picks against the spread. Hereeeee we go! Home teams are bolded.

Saints (-3) over Falcons

Vikings (+3.5) over Rams

Browns (+7) over Steelers

Eagles (-10.5) over Jaguars

Jets (-5.5) over Raiders

Bengals (+1.5) over Ravens

Bears (-7) over Bills

Texans (-3) over Redskins

Titans (+3) over Chiefs

Dolphins (+4) over Patriots

Panthers (+3) over Bucs

49ers (-4.5) over Cowboys

Broncos (-7.5) over Colts

(Monday Night)

Lions (-6.5) over Giants

Chargers (+3) over Cardinals

Enjoy the season, everybody!

Conference Championship Preview-palooza

Hello again, folks. Sorry for the lack of follow-up posts after the Tuesday reaction. The last few days have been spend sifting through preview sections, getting mentally focused for today's game, and...yes, a little bit of reveling from last week.

From what I've seen of the New York papers, this town is confident the Jets are going to the Super Bowl. With all the published predictions, you would think Gang Green was facing the Pittsburgh Pirates on the field today. But it's to be expected--almost everyone locally picked the Jets to beat Indy last season. It's times like this where if you're in the New York media and don't buy in, it's really a lose-lose for you. If you pick against the Jets and they lose, whoopdy doo, you get it right and everyone else is miserable. Pick against them and they win, and then you're the dweeb who went against them. So all NY media picks should be taken with 50 grains of salt (except this blog's, which should be taken with the normal one grain of salt.)

So the Jets are trying to make the big show for the first time since Brett Favre began (Not his football career career--his life.) Meanwhile, plenty of attention is being given to Bears-Packers on the NFC side of things. They play in the same division, are both very talented, and the fans despise each other. Should be rather enjoyable starting at 3pm today. Wanna know what's going to happen? You got it!

GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-6) AT CHICAGO BEARS (11-5)

The Line: Packers by 3.5

How They Got Here

Well, the Packers side of things is a bit more interesting. It seems like a very, very long time ago when Green Bay took on the Giants with a playoff berth virtually at stake. Ever since taking care of business that day, the Pack have been the hottest thing going in the NFL. They had some bizarre losses this season (consecutive overtime losses to the Redskins and Dolphins.) And two other losses can certainly be forgiven, since Matt Flynn took the place of a concussed Aaron Rodgers for two weeks. Their quality wins include the Eagles and Jets, and of course the two straight wins over the Giants/Bears to close out the regular season. Rodgers has achieved super-duper-Jesus Christ-superstar status in the league, and nobody thinks he can be stopped on his way to a Super Bowl. On the other hand, the 2010 Bears have played this season with the sole mission of making me eat servings upon servings of crow. I anointed them a 5-11 team in my NFL preview, and they turned the tables by going 11-5. To be fair, I'm still not sure how they did it. After all, the Bears were no better than 20th in the league in pass yards, rush yards, and pass yards against. But they shut down the rush, they are opportunistic on defense, and Jay Cutler has gotten work done when he's had to. Losses were to Giants, Seahawks, Redskins, and Pats before their finale loss to the Packers when they had nothing to play for. Even though it was do-or-die for the Packers, Chicago led most of the game and were threatening late. Quality Chicago wins include Dallas (pre-implosion) Philadelphia and the Jets.

How the Bears Can Win

Well, I have a feeling Chicago will be a bit more emotionally charged. They won the division, the Packers didn't. They are playing at home, the Packers are facing their third straight road game. Put all that together and the Bears are...a field goal underdog? Dopes like me have given the Bears (particularly Cutler) no recognition for how good they've played. Sure enough, everyone is laying at the feet of Aaron Rodgers this week and the Bears are the 'other team.' That's a dangerous mix, having their home fans behind them. Since I don't see the Pack running game doing anything, the Bears defense must do the improbable and find a way to slow down Rodgers. It may take some unique tactics. Perhaps Lovie Smith will take Julius Peppers aside and recreate this scene, right down to the purple sweater. I came away really impressed with Cutler after how he carved the Jets--those throws he made were ridiculous (in a good way.) Forte and the Bears have the edge in the running game too, which can allow them to mix it up better. Last week, the Falcons did a miserable job with the chances they had to bring down Rodgers. If Chicago is going to stay in it, they will need to finish. Don't forget about Devin Hester in the return game, either. Because if Green Bay does, he can turn the game all on his own.

How the Packers Can Win

More of the same. The offense faced little resistance in Philadelphia, and no resistance in Atlanta. The Eagles game could have been as ugly as the Falcons game, except Green Bay dropped an easy touchdown and got a little too comfortable with the lead in a coaching sense. James Starks gave the Packers a running game nobody saw coming in these playoffs. Green Bay's defense has also improved in its stellar regular season. Raji, Matthews, Woodson, Williams, and Collins are serious playmakers. The formula so far is get a nice lead, then let the defense take the ball away as the other teams try to play catch-up. Green Bay has answered all questions about winning on the road, so the rowdy fans shouldn't terrify them. But boy is it going to be cold there. Rodgers was waltzing around and flicking the ball wherever he wanted in Atlanta's dome...that may be tougher to do on a crappy field in crappy weather. Very few people disagree with the fact that Green Bay is better than Chicago across the board. They just have to avoid disasters (Peppers haunting Rodgers, kicking foolishly to Hester, etc.)

The Pick

This one's for you, Chicago. As I said, my opinion of the Bears in the preseason was less than flattering. I'm sure it didn't get much better during the season--I'm scared to go back and look how many times I picked Chicago against the spread. But I'm ready to move on. All this Aaron Rodgers-is-God talk is becoming a little much for me. As slanted as this stat may be, Rodgers has half the amount of playoff wins as Mark Sanchez! Yeah, Jay Cutler only has one playoff win himself. But the disrespect for a playoff home team can't be underestimated. Which game would you be more confident about...the Saints beating Seattle on the road, or the Packers beating the Bears on the road? Green Bay has already visited Chicago once this year, and came out of the game on the losing end. We have already seen enough craziness in these playoffs. Jay Cutler in the Super Bowl would be the delicious cherry on top. Get ready for a wild one.

BEARS 34, PACKERS 31

NEW YORK JETS (11-5) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4)

The Line: Steelers by 4

How They Got Here

The Jets beat a couple of scrubs, and the Steelers took down their hated rival. Hehehe. Ok, Gang Green is on a ridiculous high after taking down the two quarterbacks who dominate the football landscape. Rex Ryan constructed gameplans catered to hold down two Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, and he's got one more guy left. The Jets up-and-down season has been well documented, and it was the victory in Pittsburgh that finally got them their swag back. On the Pittsburgh end, the regular season was impressive. Their only losses were to Baltimore (without Ben) New Orleans, New England, and these Jets. As good as that regular season was, they did not instill fear into their opponents with last week's performance. They looked finished in that 3rd quarter when Baltimore led 21-7. Yes, the defense took over bigtime. but Baltimore was also quite accommodating to the comeback. The Jets will look to take an early lead in this one (like in the regular season when Brad Smith took back the opening kickoff.) Of course, I will be the billionth person to indicate Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller didn't play in that one. Both will be there today.

How the Jets Can Win

The confidence this week as compared to last week is like night and day. After taking down Manning and Brady, the team has put its complete belief in Rex and the coaching staff that they can form a great scheme. The Jets have great balance, and were basically the only team that gave Pittsburgh trouble in the running game this season. Passing the ball, Sanchez has found a 'comfortable' routine of sucking early and brilliance late. The Steelers can be had in the secondary, but it's all about being content with the safe throws instead of making mistakes going for it all. On special teams, Heinz Field is a nightmare for kickers. Already being a living nightmare, this isn't great news for Nick Folk. But in terms of the return game, the Jets must take advantage of their superior ability. Smith's kick return was truly the difference last game. For the defense, they must capitalize on the few opportunities they get. If a sack is possible, a sack must be attained. No whiffs, no arm tackles that can be swatted. As long as the coverage guys play as incredibly as they did last week, things will be tough for Ben and the offense.

How the Steelers Can Win

The defense can win the game on its own. Their ability to take the ball away will have me horrified everytime Shonn Greene touches the ball. As Baltimore clearly showed last week, you have to play your best for sixty whole minutes if the Jets want to win. On offense, Miller is always there for Ben if trouble arises. If you put last week out of your mind for a moment, remember the difficulty this team has covering guys in the seams. Gang Green begged and dared Indy/New England to run. Things will change this week because the Steelers do that a lot better. If the running game is successful, play-actions to Mike Wallace running deep will be lethal. Despite the media's love affair with Rex and the Jets, the Steelers are favored for a reason. A road win over New England does not guarantee a road win over Pittsburgh. No matter how much it feels like fate for these Jets.

The Pick

Last week I was hoping against hope. Admittedly, now I'm hoping...with(?) hope. These Jets have talked about it ever since Hard Knocks swept the nation. Few can argue that this has been one of the wackier NFL seasons in history. Going along with that, I don't think the traditional, win-every-year Steelers have a place in the Super Bowl. The Jets got this far last season, only to run into an Indy juggernaut and have it all fall apart. Well, the juggernauts have already been vanquished by Gang Green. The Steelers are a tremendous team. But this is 40+ years in the making. You could put the football Monstarz out there, and I'd take these Jets. This is Finland-after-Russia for 1980 Team USA hockey. This is Cardinals-after-Yankees for the 2004 Red Sox. The Jets are going to the Super Bowl. Don't let my postgame victory coma last any more than two weeks...we've got a game to watch in Dallas.

JETS 21, STEELERS 13

Tuesday Trash: Trying to Put Into Words

Unbelievable. Unreal. Overjoyed.

In previewing Sunday's Jets-Patriots game, the great question everyone had was, "45-3...what changes this time around?" It was the same two teams. In the same stadium. With everything on the line. Personally, I had no idea what would change...concluding that it was a leap of faith to think the Jets had a chance.

A leap of faith that the Patriots offense (point totals in their final 8 games: 39, 31, 45, 45, 36, 31, 34, 38) could somehow be contained after the Jets were so powerless on that Monday night.

A leap of faith that the Jets defense (who lost so much shutdown-ability since their great 2009) could hold their own in coverage and somehow muster any kind of pass rush.

A leap of faith that Tom Brady would show a human side after his historical run to end the season.

A leap of faith that Mark Sanchez could conquer the demons of playing in Foxboro (in two previous games: 300 total passing yards, 1 touchdown, 7 interceptions.)

Finally, the leap of faith that Rex Ryan could do what he promised: for one game, outfox Bill Belichick.

Last week in Indianapolis, I was incredibly uneasy going into the game. I knew Gang Greencould win the game, but this was Peyton Manning. Admittedly, the Seahawks beating the Saints helped my psyche incredibly. I knew one game had nothing to do with the other. What happened in Seattle had no impact thousands of miles away in Indianapolis. But when the 'Hawks won, I just felt it set the tone of, "Get ready for these playoffs. Because things are gonna get wild." Next thing you know, Nick Folk sneaks one through the goal posts as time expires, and the Jets punch their ticket to New England.

Fast forward a week. The Jets will never admit it, but they must have known that they had much more to win than lose against the Patriots. The Pats were Super Bowl favorites and everybody bought in. It's why you were hearing arguments that this team was better than the 2007 team that went to the Super Bowl 18-0. This team was supposedly peaking at the right time and ready to skate to a championship. It's why Welker had fun with his foot comments. It's why Belichick consequently had no problem sitting Welker for a series as a punishment.

And in watching the game, boy did it feel different from Indy. Maybe the memories of 45-3 were still dancing maniacally in my head. But personally I was just waiting for the Jets to climb into a bit of a hole and see if they could dig themselves out. The Pats played their part, moving the ball crisply on the first drive. But the Brady interception just turned everything on its head. The Jets simply never got picks this year, so I was watching in disbelief seeing David Harris 'running' (come on, he couldn't escape 450 lb. Alge Crumpler) down the sideline. Since Brady hadn't turned the ball over since his XFL days, the home fans were stunned. And any Patriots player that said they weren't also stunned would be a liar. On the very first series, the Jets showed they wouldn't be the sieve-swiss cheese-house of cards that they were last time. And who knows-- if Welker is on the field instead of being punished, maybe that play is run for him and the pick never happens. Whoever said the Jets' talk was worthless??

Sure enough, Folk launched the field goal attempt toward Trinidad & Tobago, and the Jets got no points off the shocking turnover. The Pats took the ball right back and marched, marched, and appeared to have a touchdown to Crumpler (meaning he would be responsible for a 14-point swing in this game.) Perhaps seeing how absurd that would be, the football gods fired a bolt of invisible lightning to Crumpler's hands and he dropped the ball. Seven points became three points. It's not much, but the Jets trailing by only 3 at the end of the 1st had all of their fans overjoyed.

When I look back on this game, one turning point I will always remember is Drew Coleman's sack in the second quarter. It was violent. It was vicious. And if Brady had any doubts after his interception, now he had to worry about his wellbeing in the pocket. Understandably, the Pats were not expecting the Jets to fluster Brady in the least bit. But when Rex creates schemes that make four rushers seem like 5-6, every quarterback is vulnerable. Great field position off the punt, Sanchez looks cool as ever going down the field, and the Jets lead 7-3 as Tomlinson skates into the endzone.

After that, I literally don't know what to say. Except for some special teams frustrations, the Jets played the game of their lives. Sanchez was John Wayne, being fearless-yet-efficient with his passes. Back before the Monday massacre, everyone was saying the Patriots didn't have the capacity to handle all the Jets receivers. While that game got out of hand and the point became moot, that viewpoint reared its beautiful head for the Jets in this one. Cotchery was everywhere, Edwards carried two Pro Bowl defenders into the endzone (disappointingly, no Dougie) and Holmes made a touchdown catch that will long live in Jets lore. Tomlinson was capable in his running, and Greene rocked the Pats to sleep to virtually clinch the game.

That's all well and good. But 28 points sometimes hasn't been good enough against the Pats this year. This game was defense, defense, and more defense. Brady never got comfortable, and it was just a snowball effect. The longer the Jets held down the Pats' vaunted offense, the more panic came from New England and the more confidence came brooding from New York. When Brady needed time, a pass rush that nobody saw coming suffocated him. Shaun Ellis sure picked a good time to have the game of his life. Ditto for the youngsters in the secondary that everyone thought would be treated like dog food for 4 quarters. There were plays where Brady had all the time in the world, yet had nowhere to go with the football. A lasting image from watching on television was Rex Ryan, clapping and laughing on the sideline after the Patriots' botched fake punt. The Jets played the Monday night game in a fearful, reactionary way. This time they would be the ones bringing the fight.

Going into this game, the Jets believed the best way to stop Brady was to keep him on the sideline. They allowed the Colts nine possessions the previous Saturday, and still barely hung on. Well yesterday, the game dictated that the Jets had no problem with Brady taking the field. Twelve possessions in all. On the night of 45-3, the Pats had 10 possessions. This time, even 21 points was deceiving. Gang Green allowed but one touchdown and two field goals before sealing the game. The Jets thought they had to do anything they could to keep Brady away from the field...they ended up beating him up and forcing him to the sidelines all by themselves.

And so it went. The Jets went on making plays, holding off a steady-but-by-no-means-terrifying New England rally. They watched the Patriots essentially dig their own grave with an eternal drive that zapped the clock and resulted in zero points. They held on to a few onside kicks, Shonn Greene scurried into the endzone, and it was see ya next year for the ballyhooed Pats.

Rex Ryan called this game the second biggest in Jets history. I suppose that by default, next week's game gets that title and this one slips to third. But I cannot think of a sweeter win for the Jet fans. They wanted to have a rebuttal to Pats fans rehashing memories of 45-3. They watched all week as Pats fans reveled in the fact that Peyton Manning lost to these Jets, as they were so certain that Brady and the boys had #4 all locked up. Look out for karma, New England-ites...all that enjoyment you get out of 'winning' the Brady-Manning discussions may be short lived. Because if Pittsburgh beats the Jets and goes on to win a Super Bowl, they're gonna be comparing their guy Ben to Brady. And look at the postseason success between the two--they'll have a heck of a leg to stand on. Good luck picking a side to root for this Sunday!

So though the Jets teetered on 'way too excited' mode after the game, there was certainly a lot to get off their chests. Unfortunately it was at the expense of Deion Branch. Despite being one of two teams to defeat New England this year, that game was totally dismissed because the Pats were now a 'totally different team.' Nobody bothered to consider that the Jets were exactly the same team, and they had the potential to do it again. They just needed a God damn snack to get themselves refocused.

In the broad scope of things, this win should be completely out of the Jets' heads by today. It's hard to believe that their playoff journey is only halfway complete. They've beaten quarterbacks that have combined for four championships, and they remarkably still need to beat a guy who has two himself. But as that significantly-smaller point spread suggests, the highest mountain for the Jets this postseason has just been summited.

Next Sunday night. Pittsburgh, PA. Jets-Steelers for the right to go to the Super Bowl. In the words of the deranged fellow that wears a Bart Scott jersey every Sunday for the Jets, "Can't wait."