Super Bowl XLIX Pick-off

Welp... it all comes down to tonight. After sitting through an interminable two weeks of Deflategate, Patriots fans urging everyone that  "there's nothing to see here" regarding Deflategate, Marshawn Lynch not talking, Richard Sherman baby mama drama, and the 'Firework v. Roar' Katy Perry halftime opening song debate....Super Bowl Sunday is finally here! Not much more of a preamble is needed- we've already waited long enough, plus I gotta keep an eye on the barbecue to make sure the sausages don't char. Without further adieu!

SUPER BOWL XLIX
No. 1 New England Patriots (14-4) vs. No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: Pick'em!
The Lowdown: It's the matchup that everyone's been waiting to see, despite the noteworthy unlike-ability of both these squads. Nobody outside of New England enjoys seeing the Patriots win due to their checkered past (not even going into it...enough is enough) and overall frosty demeanor. Seattle, in their own right, followed their miracle victory last week by crying as if they were middle-aged mothers who just found out they were in attendance at an Oprah's "Favorite Things" taping.
These two top seeds certainly their bumps on the way to the Big Game. The Pats got all they could handle from the Ravens in the Divisional Round, falling behind by 14 points on two different occasions. But unlikely as that eventual victory was, the Seahawks totally out-did them with a complete Houdini act against Green Bay in the NFC Championship. There came a point in the fourth quarter where about two dozen things had to break right for Seattle to win. And just like dominos, each one came through.
But then again, there's a reason these two were the top seeds in their conference, and a reason both are the final teams standing. New England has Tom Brady orchestrating a potent pass offense, with some serious help from tight end Rob Gronkowski. A great offense is nothing new for the Pats- but their revamped defense has been a welcomed change for their squad. Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Devin McCourty...all the sudden it's not so easy to chuck the ball on them anymore.
Well, Seattle doesn't care very much about tossing the ball anyway. Running back Marshawn Lynch- as knuckle-headed as he ay be from time to time- is the force behind everything the Seahawks do on offense. He is a punishing runner, capable receiver, and someone who is a nightmare to tackle for four straight quarters. Quarterback Russell Wilson works in the pass and runs of his own to complete the offense. But much like last season's historic unit, Seattle's identity is in its defense. The same defense that refused to let the NFC Championship get out of control when Wilson threw interception after interception early in the game. The same defense that terrified Peyton Manning and the Broncos straight out of the building in last year's Super Bowl. Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Michael Bennett...there are stars every place you look.
So with the two potent defenses taking the field, many folks are going south on the 47.5 over/under line. The key to the game will be Lynch's ability to gash New England's defensive front vs. Brady's ability to maneuver his way around Seattle's suffocating secondary.
The Pick: Very little drama in this one. I thought the Colts had a chance to take down New England, and maybe they would have if that Pats hadn't cheated (one last trolling job to take into the long offseason.) Seattle played some of the worst football they were capable of ever playing two weeks ago, yet still found a way. Though they won't quite have their vicious homefield advantage in the Super Bowl, early reports are that the Seahawks:Patriots fan ratio is tilted heavy towards the west coasters. I saw what this defense did in eviscerating Denver last year, and I saw them somehow keep the Seahawks in a game from hell two weeks ago. New England is a great team...and Seattle is just an itty bitty bit better. The last time the Patriots played a Super Bowl in Arizona, I got definitive proof there is indeed an all-loving God looking over the universe things didn't go as planned. Same story, new chapter. Look on the bright side, Patriots fans....at least it's not Eli Manning part 3.0
Seahawks 16, Patriots 10

Conference Title Pickoff: Who's Desert-Bound?

Unbelievable as it is, there are just three games remaining in this NFL season (3.5 games if you count the Pro Bowl.) Four teams are left standing, and each will put up their dukes this evening and have it out. Unsurprisingly, both top seeds are sizable favorites in their home stadiums. But both of today's underdogs have superstar quarterbacks, one of whom has won a Super Bowl in his own right.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 2 Green Bay Packers (13-4) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Kickoff: 3pm
The Line: Seattle by 8
The Lowdown: These two squads return to the scene of September 4, 2014's NFL season opener. Following that 36-16 beatdown by Seattle, talks of a repeat Seahawks championship season got a'brewin. Those talks simmered a bit as Seattle stumbled to lose 3 of its next 5 games, but the Hawks regained their mojo in dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage. The results? Seattle has won 10 of its last 11, including a 31-17 thumping of Carolina in last week's divisional round. Though that game was more tightly contested than the final score would indicate, therein lies the beauty of how Seattle is so effective. Things don't have to go perfectly nor pretty for the Hawks to find a way. Playing in front of their home crowd, they chip away and chip away, patiently rushing the ball with Marshawn Lynch and wearing out their opponent. Though he doesn't get the superstar accolades of his three quarterback counterparts this weekend, Russell Wilson brutalized the Panthers with third down dagger after third down dagger last week. And when push comes to shove, it's nearly impossible to go 60 minutes against this defense without a killer mistake (i.e. Kam Chancellor's game-sealing interception return touchdown of Cam Newton last week.) Seattle is confident as can be, and as mentioned, simply outclassed Green Bay earlier this season.
The Pack, meanwhile, come in with folks still talking about their game against Dallas and Dez Bryant's catch/no-catch debate. Though everyone has their own opinion on that play, it's tough to say Rodgers wouldn't have found a way to pull out that victory. He was near flawless in the second half after a rocky start. Questions still linger about his injured calf, which still isn't 100% and is certainly playing a factor in the lofty 8 point spread of this matchup. With MVP favorite Rodgers firing on all cylinders, this line would probably be cut in half. But all the uncertainty surrounding his health affects everything the Packers try to do on offense. Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb are worthy offensive adversaries to take of Seattle's Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, & co. But if the centerpiece isn't there with a full canvas of his abilities, Green Bay will be in a real tough spot.
The Pick: Seattle really has this professional football stuff all figured out. Their rushing offense pounds opponents into submission, their defense pounds opponents into submission, and their quarterback is Mr. Cool in taking whatever the defense gives him and rolling along. Granted, their homefield advantage is over-discussed, but it also can't be denied. Though 8 points seems like quite a bit, it seems everytime I take that mindset into a game, the favorite proves why everyone bets so confidently in them. Unless Wilson uncharacteristically takes a mindset of "forget Brady, Luck, and Rodgers...I'LL SHOW YOU who the superstar quarterback is!" resulting in forcing passes and suffering turnovers, Seattle will do what has made it so successful two years running. The "repeat" talk got going in September. And it will reach a fever pitch tonight.
Seahawks 34, Packers 21 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at No. 1 New England Patriots (13-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: New England by 6.5
The Lowdown: Let this blog by the millionth place where you'll see the pun that this game is All About Luck. The Colts young quarterback has brought his team to the AFC Championship with staggeringly little help surrounding him. Indy is utterly fruitless in trying to run the football, they struggle mightily to stop the run, and their defensive secondary is marginal thanks to star corner Vontae Davis. But besides that, it's Andrew throwing left, Andrew throwing tight, Andrew throwing middle, and Andrew throwing deep. Playing in the weak AFC South, the Colts have feasted on a rather fluffy schedule this season in getting to the playoffs. But now that they're here? They've conquered every obstacle thrown their way. Yes, the Bengals were injured and stinky in round one- and Denver played one of the most confusingly inept games in the history of football last week- resulting in the firing of Broncos coach John Fox and possible retirement talk for Peyton Manning. But none of that is of the Colts' concern.
What is of their concern, however, is that Luck has gotten whipped by the Patriots in each of his career matchups against them. Last year's playoffs...this year's regular season...things have gotten ugly. Indianapolis has Andrew, and the Patriots have shown to have a quarterback and a whole lot more.
Speaking of New England, the Pats nearly ran into a buzzsaw last week against Baltimore. The Ravens came out quick and never relented, building two different 14 point leads in the game. But the Patriots never panicked, chipped away any chance they got, and at the end of the day they squeezed out the victory. It seemed like a true coin flip as to who the better team was, but now the question becomes whether Indy is better than that Ravens team. It's a tough call. But based on the Patriots' rampant success against the Colts during the Luck era, clearly New England enjoys the matchups that Indy has presented them.
The Pick: Despite knowing that Baltimore would be a live underdog, I shared my thoughts last week that this did not seem like a "one-and-done" Patriots team this time around. Revis and Browner on defense, Gronkowski on offense, etc. On the flip side of things, does this year's New England squad have the moxy of a Super Bowl bound team? Well, they sure seem more qualified than this Colts team. The Patriots have a better all-around offense, comparable all-around defense, and decided edges in coaching and homefield. But ya know what? The Broncos enjoyed all those edges against this Colts team last week. Expect a close game where Indy covers the spread. And when in doubt as to who will win, just remember that one team has Andrew Luck playing quarterback and one team does not have Andrew Luck playing quarterback. Somehow, someway:
Colts 27, Patriots 24

Thanks for reading. Enjoy the games!

Divisional Round Saturday Playoff Pick'em

Greetings, all! And welcome to perhaps the highest quality weekend of football the NFL has to offer. Eight teams remain in the win-or-go-home playoffs, and following byes last week, all the top-seeds join the fun this time around.

The Wild Card weekend was a bit disappointing in regards to the brand of football played, but it still had its moments. Folks are still left in amazement over the penalty flag picked up in Dallas that helped spring the Cowboys comeback over Detroit, Baltimore's Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass using nothing but his toned thighs, and Arizona's Ryan Lindley set a new standard as to what constitutes an un-winnable starting quarterback.

At the end of the day, it was a 3-1 week picking against the spread. Carolina, Indianapolis, and Detroit came through while Pittsburgh was the lone blemish. This week's slate of games presents all kinds of challenges in terms of lofty spreads, injured superstars, and which team- if any- will keep us from seeing juggernaut matchups of Denver/New England and Seattle/Green Bay next week. So how will it all go down? Splendid for you to ask!

SATURDAY 1/10
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at No. 1 New England Patriots (12-4)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: New England by 7
The Lowdown: Patriots haters (present company happily included) will once again need to rally around the Ravens to take down Goliath. Baltimore has had some recent playoff success at Foxboro, are just two years removed from their own Super Bowl Championship. Quarterback Joe Flacco has a well-documented, mystifying ability to play at a level way higher than his regular season norm, and he out-gunned Pittsburgh's favored passing attack on the road last week. Running back Justin Forsett anchors a capable running game, and the Ravens' defense is quite stout in stopping the run as well. In an ideal world, Baltimore will ride Forsett like Secretariat. The less time Tom Brady has to carve up their vulnerable secondary, the better. Speaking of Brady, he had an MVP-type year after a very rocky start to the season. Though they didn't light up the scoreboard each and every week like in years past, the New England defense has their fans feeling like it's once again the glory days of the Bill Belichick era. Revis, Browner, McCourty, etc...suddenly you can't just chuck it at will on them. Just as he is every other game, Rob Grownkowski will be the key player, in his ability to dominate both before and after the catch. The Ravens struggled to make the playoffs, were underdogs on the road in the Wild Card round, and seem perfectly fine playing that role once again.
The Pick: Really looking forward to this one. Had Pittsburgh beaten Baltimore this week, it would have been one-man-team Andrew Luck and his Colts making the rough trip to New England. The vast majority of fans would agree that Baltimore presents the tougher matchup for these Patriots. But there's always the peril that once the divisional round arrives, folks desperately grasp for reason to predict the upsets rather than looking at games for what they are. This does not at all have the look of a one-and-done Patriots team. The defense is as good as its been in years, Grownkowski is 100% healthy, and as far as Darrelle Revis...just ask Jets fans the difference one guy can make on defense. Take Baltimore with the points, because 7 seems irrational. But as far as who's winning...well, I guess some dreams are indeed just meant for sleepytime.
Patriots 21, Ravens 20

No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Kickoff: 8:15pm
The Line: Seattle by 11.5
The Lowdown: The cat chasing the bird...it's a familiar storyline. A point spread as astronomical as 11.5 means there must be some unique storylines in play. And, well, there are. Carolina was a losing team during the regular season whose franchise player Cam Newton had been banged up, then got more banged up in a car accident, and looked rather ho-hum playing against the aforementioned Ryan Lindley & co. last week. Seattle, meanwhile, is the defending Super Bowl champions who have nearly all of their core players back, and also the most pronounced home field advantage in pro sports. Quarterback Russell Wilson, running back Marshawn Lynch, and the NFL's best defense have looked utterly dominant during their 9-1 stretch to finish the season. Carolina's only hope is that their potent rushing attack can set up some long pass pays over the top, and that their defense can hold down Wilson & co. The Panthers will need to be patient and determined in stopping Lynch, as Seattle often wears out its opponents late in the game. Seattle's one weakness is a not-so-great receiving corps, so if Carolina can play near-perfect football and keep things close, it may be able to get the crowd a bit nervous and rouse up thoughts of a stunner. 
The Pick: A five-alarm upset alert is in order. Seattle is the better team from soup to nuts, but there's been a strange aura about Seattle since its dominating Super Bowl win over Denver last season. It wasn't the prototypical 12-4 season, as the Hawks were indeed sitting at just 3-3 at one point this season. Though it's great to get hot and roll off a bunch of games in a row, it may also create a speck of doubt if things don't go their way throughout this game. There have been troubling storylines with Lynch this year- his enormous fines for not talking to postgame media, his resulting bizarre/unpleasant interviews with that media, contract disagreements, his resentment of Percy Harvin being traded to the Jets mid-season. There's not a whole bunch of holes you can poke in a 12-4 defending champion, but Carolina has that moxy to them. Their NFC South division has been trashed all year, folks feel they don't belong, and very few think they can keep this one close, let alone win. But except for some receivers departing, these are the same guys who went 12-4 last year. While that season ended with disappointment in the divisonal round, Cam & co. flip the script and shock the nation.
Panthers 16, Seahawks 10

You know what? I need to get my brain in order and can't attempt to top that one by going into Sunday's games. Stay tuned- those will be up tomorrow. Enjoy Saturday's slate!

2015 Playoff Pickoff- Wild Card Edition

Greetings and welcome back! It's playoff time in the NFL, and at long last it's time to offer up some picks that are sure to lose but sure to simultaneously be a whole lot of fun! First, a quick look back at my preseason playoff picks and how they fared during the regular season in 2014:

Predicted AFC playoff squads:
1. Broncos
2. Patriots
3. Bengals
4. Texans
5. Chargers
6. Colts

Real AFC playoff squads:
1. Patriots
2. Broncos
3. Steelers
4. Colts
5. Bengals
6. Ravens

Not an albatross! Texans were a big whiff and I didn't foresee the AFC North dominance, but the Chargers blew it on the last day when they had a playoff spot in the palm of their lightning bolts. But what can ya do? I'm grasping for as many straws/taking as many pats on the back as I can for the AFC picks because, the NFC on the other hand...

Predicted NFC playoff squads
1. Seahawks
2. Bears (twitching)
3. Eagles
4. Saints
5. Packers
6. Cardinals

Real NFC playoff squads
1. Seahawks
2. Packers
3. Cowboys
4. Panthers
5. Cardinals
6. Lions

Just 3 outta 6, and anybody on the planet could have predicted two of those correct teams (Seattle and Green Bay.) And those Bears....oy.

So the regular season may not have gone as planned, but that's nothing a perfect playoff pickoff (PPP) can't heal! It all starts with the four wildcard games this weekend, which all bring something great to the table and should be a real treat. Let's do this dance:

SATURDAY 1/3
No. 5 Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at No. 4 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: Carolina by 6.5
The Lowdown: Things start off with the NFL playoff's version of the Land of Misfit Toys. There is no misprint in the records above- Carolina lost more games than it won this year, but was still able to capture the NFC South crown. The Cardinals, meanwhile, got off to a scorching 9-1 start before losing both their starting quarterback AND backup quarterback. Arizona stumbled to a 2-4 finish to the season and now has something called a Ryan Lindley throwing the ball for them. Carolina had a nasty stretch where it didn't win a game from October 5-December 7 (0-6-1) but has since caught fire in going 4-0 down the stretch (albeit against very weak teams.) Nonetheless, with the division title and this playoff spot on the line, Carolina went into Atlanta's dome and eviscerated the Falcons 34-3 last week. Cam Newton had a very rocky season that had many questioning his health- and that was before a car crash late in the season that caused him to miss a game. But Cam looked like the old Cam in the season finale, and if you're a believer in momentum, it's not hard to see why Carolina is favored by a healthy margin in this game. Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are widely under-appreciated at wide receiver, but the Ryan Lindley has just shown so little in being able to deliver the football. The Panthers defensive secondary is a strength, as well.
The Pick: Well, whoever wins this game is almost certain to have 'double-digit-underdog' status when visiting either Seattle or Green Bay next week. You can't help but feel for the Cardinals, who entering the season had to hear all about Seattle and San Fran in their division. They went about their business in dominating fashion, only to lose players at the keystone position. It's good to see they were able to make the playoffs, but the Ryan Lindley is not engineered to win playoff games on the road against good defenses. Carolina manages the game, establishes their run game with Cam, Jonathan Stewart, & co., and grinds one out. Lay the points and take the Cam.
Panthers 24, Cardinals 13

No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Kickoff: 8:15pm
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3
The Lowdown: Two of the familiar-est of foes meet in primetime. The AFC North rivals drop the gloves for the third time this season. If you're looking for some consistency, you got it: the Ravens won by 20 (26-6) at the matchup in Baltimore while the Steelers win by 20 (43-23) in Pittsburgh. This rival goes back a long way, and has largely been predicated on defense throughout the years. That likely won't be the case this time around, as Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and Baltimore's Joe Flacco look to feast on what has been weak defensive secondaries. Even more pressure will be on the Steelers to throw with news that superstar running back Le'Veon Bell will miss this game with a knee injury. A home team being favored by just three points indicates that oddsmakers see the teams as basically even. Neither team fears the other, both have Super Bowl winning quarterback/coach combos, and this could very well be the game of the weekend.
The Pick: Boy, the Steelers have had a weird season. Besides the Ravens, the Steelers have lost to the Bucs, Browns, Jets (really), and Saints- four teams that didn't sniff the playoffs this year. Meanwhile, they've issued beatdowns to playoff teams Carolina, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. Baltimore is a team you certainly don't want to mess with come January- and that was before they got wildman Steve Smith at receiver. Despite this, I like the Ben-led Pittsburgh attack just a little more than Baltimore's. Even without Bell in the backfield, Pittsburgh finds a way to solve their hated rival.
Steelers 34, Ravens 28

SUNDAY 1/4
No. 5 Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Kickoff: 1pm
The Line: Indianapolis by 3.5
The Lowdown: A big hint for this one appears to be October's regular season meeting, won by the Colts 27-0. Indy has Andrew Luck at quarterback, and not much anywhere else. Luck made the Colts one of the league's best pass attacks, while Cincy's Andy Dalton still seems to be something different every single week. It doesn't help the Bengals that Dalton's favorite target A.J. Green is banged up. Cincy may very well hitch its wagon to rookie running back Jeremy Hill, who has torched nearly everyone's he has encountered this season. Running the ball will take the pressure off Dalton and also keep Luck off the field. Because when he's on the field, he throws it early, deep, and often. Since a tough 0-2 stretch to open the season, the Colts have gone 11-3, with one of those losses a half-effort to Dallas late in the season after already clinching. Luck may not have much around him, but he evidently doesn't need it, either.
The Pick: Simply put, Dalton has shown nothing in his career to say he can be trusted in this one. He has melted in the playoffs each time he's been there so far, and I don't think this is a game where his weaknesses can be hidden. Luck comes out firing from the start, and this one gets decided early.
Colts 31, Bengals 10

No. 6 Detroit Lions (11-5) at No. 3 Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: Dallas by 6.5
The Lowdown: Two teams that everyone just kept expecting to fall out of the race, but never slowed down nor relented. Despite all the criticism he is destined to receive for all of time, Tony Romo leads a Cowboys offense that is actually quite terrifying. DeMarco Murray delivered insane production at running back, ditto for Dez Bryant at receiver. Throw in some Jason Witten and one of the league's best offensive lines, and Detroit can be in for some trouble. Don't shortchange the Lions offense, though, as Matt Stafford enjoys the pleasure of throwing to Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate over and over again. The Lions defense is also amongst the league's best against the run, and Ndamukong Suh avoided the suspension many expected after he tried to snap Aaron Rodgers' leg like a wishbone last week. Two high powered offenses give this game a real "expect anything and everything feel."
The Pick: Well, you never want to be the guy who picks all the home favorites on wild card weekend. What would be wild about that? The solution: find Tony Romo's game! I kid, I kid, of course. But take the Lions. At the very least, they'll cover that lofty spread, right? And I think they'll do even more.
Lions 20, Cowboys 17

Thanks for reading- enjoy the games!!

Week 4 QPB (that's Quick Picks Blitz)

Happy Sunday, everyone! Enjoy all of today's action. For those who happen to be in Vegas or betting online, here's the express land to a cool $1 million! As always, home teams are BOLD.

Bears (+2) over Packers
I took the Bears to win the division during the preseason. And as up-and-down as they've looked so far, this is a game where they must protect their house. Tough to imagine Green Bay opening 1-3 after all the hype...but Jay Cutler finds a way.

Texans (-3) over Bills
The Texans got pasted last week by the Giants, and will be thrilled to return home. Star running back Arian Foster looks to be a go after missing last week, and he is Mr. Everything for the Houston offense.

Colts (-7.5) over Titans
The Titans kinda secretly stink, and Andrew Luck is the polar opposite of stinky. Colts pull away late in their home dome.

Panthers (+3.5) over Ravens
Former longtime Panther/now Raven Steve Smith has apparently promised some kind of mass mutiliation during this game, making it the must-see matchup in the 1pm hour. Not sure if the Panthers win outright, but that extra half-point in the 3.5 spread is just too tasty to ignore.

Jets (+1.5) over Lions
Just leave me be on this one.

Steelers (-7.5) over Bucs
There are so many things wrong in Tampa, it's scary. Backup quarterback Mike Glennon goes on the road to face an angry Steeler secondary. Pittsburgh is fresh off an impressive victory at Carolina and will not be messing around in banking this one.

Raiders (+4) over Miami
Oakland gave the Patriots eeeeeeverything they could handle last week, which should actually give some juice to the Black Hole home crowd. Miami is in quite a bit of disarray, and those cross-country trips are never pleasant. Take the points.

Jaguars (+13) over Chargers
The Blake Bortles era! 13 points! A trap game for San Diego? Probably not...but grab that preposterous amount of points and call it a day.

49ers (-5) over Eagles
Very tough matchup to pick. Philly is one of only 3 undefeated teams, and everybody's been wondering what's wrong in San Fran. I think all those doubts are put to rest today, as a high-scoding shootout goes to the Niners.

Falcons (-3) over Vikings
Teddy Bridgewater brings some much-needed intrigue to the QB position in Minnesota, but his weapons are just so limited. It's still very hard to trust Atlanta, but the spread seems just a bit too small- considering the circumstances.

Saints (-3) over Cowboys
This game's going to total 90+ points. The Saints' defense is juuuuuust a hair less crappier than the Cowboys. Lay the points and pray (and enjoy the offensive fireworks!)

Chiefs (+3.5) over Patriots
Jamaal Charles returning in primetime?? Call it the Upset of the Week. Chiefs 26, Patriots 21.


Riding the home teams like Secretariat this week! Thanks for reading and happy viewing, everyone.

NFL Week 3: Where Have All the Cupcakes Gone?

Each and every week, there are plenty of surprises to be had on the NFL gridiron. One of the reasons for its massive popularity is that on "Any Given Sunday," a heavy favorite can fall. It's what makes those Knockout Pick'em Pools so equally fun and frustrating.

But even for a league that's constantly celebrating its parity, the notion of favorite and underdogs has been skewed in a wild way these first two weeks. Three playoff teams from last year- the Saints, Colts, and Chiefs- are all licking their wounds at a combined 0-6. And in the meanwhile, teams whose wins were anticipated to be few and far between have been quite frisky thus far.

So let's recap what we've seen so far this season. Have some cupcakes become contenders? Are others just tasty-looking on the outside, but their inner fillings are gross? Without further adiue, NFL 2014's Cupcake Watch.

1. Buffalo Bills
Preseason Status: Longstanding culture of cupcak-ery
Blog's 2014 Projected Record: 6-10 (last in AFC East)
Through Two Games: These guys are the talk of the NFL! The Patriots have dominated their division since the turn of the millenium, and most anticipated that trend continuing this season. And if New England were to fall down a peg (wishful thinking going on 10 years now,) surely it would be Miami or the Jets who took the mantle, right? Well quarterback EJ Manuel and receiver Sammy Watkins are still just pups in this league, and they're playing like they never got the memo that Buffalo's been a perennial doormat. The Bills provided the shock of Week 1 when they upset the Bears in Chicago, and suffered no hangover whatsoever the following week when they throttled Miami at home. The Bills' rushing numbers both offensively and defensively have been tremendous, and Manuel has shown moxy. All the worry and mystery surronding the team's sale has been largely alleviated, and the Bills have played fantastic football.
Verdict: No longer cupcake, Wild Card contender

2. Cleveland Browns
Preseason Status: Hopes that Johnny Football could rescue them from cupcak-ery
Blog's 2014 Projected Record: 4-12 (last in AFC North)
Through Two Games: The Browns entered 14 with bucketfuls of bad karma. Their premier playmaker, wide receiver Josh Gordon, appeared to screw everything up with his season-long drug suspension. Though Cleveland had some ability on defense, the Gordon-less attack appeared to lack any kind of threats. Throw in the fact that the coaching staff seemed to have no clue what they wanted in terms of incumbent quarterback Brian Hoyer vs. hotshot rookie Johnny Manziel...and things looked beyond bleak. But the Browns went on the road in Week 1 to give Pittsburgh all they could handle (Steelers won on a last-second field goal). And in Week 2, the Browns were hosting an 0-1 Saints team looking to blow them out of the building...and it was CLEVELAND who shocked the NFL with a last-second field goal victory. Hoyer has played smart, capable football; the rushing attack has been sound; and the defense held a desperate Saints offense to a modest 24 points. Can they be for real? They have a surprisingly easy schedule over the next six weeks that may indeed beef up their record. But that lack of offense will eventually bite them.
Verdict: A much friskier cupcake than anticipated

3. Jacksonville Jaguars and 4. Oakland Raiders
Preseason Statuses: Two biggest cupcakes in football
Blog's 2014 Projected Record: Jacksonville 3-13 (Last in AFC South); Oakland 5-11 (Last in AFC West)
Through Two Games: We'll loop these two together because their tales are similar. Expected to be the prime contenders for the No. 1 pick in the 2015 Draft, both the Jaguars and Raiders went out on the road in Week 1 and were surprisingly competitive. The Jags had every Eagles fan reaching for industrial-strength Rolaids, jumping out to a huge lead on Philadelphia before the Birds woke up and notched a comfortable victory. The Raiders, meanwhile, gave the Jets quite a fight into the 4th quarter before bowing out. Unfortunately, both teams got their doors blown off in Week 2. Jacksonville lost 41-10 on the road to the Redskins while Oakland "celebrated" their home opener with a 30-14 loss to Houston. The metrics look ugly for both teams, leaving many to wonder if the Week 1 close battles will be among the season's highlights.
Verdict: As cupcak-ey as foreseen

5. Kansas City Chiefs and 6. Carolina Panthers
Preseason Statuses: 2013 playoff team due for a tumble into cupcake-ry
Blog's 2014 Projected Record: Kansas City 5-11 (3rd in AFC West); Carolina 7-9 (2nd in NFC South)
Through Two Games: A Tale of Two Bakeries. Kansas City has had a miserable start to the year, beginning with a road shellacking at the hands of (cupcake-fringe) Tennessee. The one-touchdown loss on the road to Denver looks encouraging, but the Chiefs caught a terrible break when star player Jamaal Charles went down with an ankle sprain. Charles was Mr. Everything for Kansas City last year, and it will be an enormous hit for the offense if he's out an extended period. The Chiefs are not nearly as bad as the other cupcakes, of course. But an upcoming schedule of Miami, New England, San Francisco and San Diego may have their record spiral out of control.
Carolina, meanwhile, absorbed all the doubters and haters during the preseason and didn't let it bother them one bit. Even with superstar quarterback Cam Newton hurt in Week 1, the Panthers went on the road to stun divisional foe Tampa Bay. And in Week 2's return of Cam, it was the defense who stole the show- holding Detroit's quality offense to just seven points. With the uncertainty of Tampa, Atlanta, and the shockingly 0-2 New Orleans within the division, Carolina is right where they want to be.
Verdict: Neither are cupcakes; Kansas City not a playoff contender due to schedule/injury. Carolina is as good a bet as any to win the NFC South once again.

7. St. Louis Rams
Preseason Status: Wounded cupcake in an impossible division
Blog's 2014 Projected Record: 4-12 (Last in NFC West)
Through Two Games: This one is really tough to gauge. That 4-12 projected record looked like a mirage after Week 1's 34-6 home bludgeoning at the hands of Minnesota. Quarterback Sam Bradford is hurt...playmaking defender Chris Long is hurt...and all hope seems lost. But then some guy named Austin Davis took over at QB and shocked Tampa Bay on the road. Besides star defenser Robert Quinn, St. Louis doesn't have anybody who will jump off the roster at you. But in a league where passing means everything, these guys are #5 in pass defense. Can they be for real? Absolutely not. But that win over Tampa was a good one for the fans.
Verdict: Minus Austin Davis' one shining moment, bonafide cupcake.


So there you have it! As far as tonight's game, take the hosting Falcons (-6.5) to beat down the Bucs. Tampa is scary close to cupcake territory, while Atlanta sees an NFC South divison up for the taking- having already beaten New Orleans earlier this season.

Thanks for reading!!

Sunday Smash- NFL Week 2

Greetings, all! A quick NFL picks blitz for your Week 2 viewing enjoyment! As always, home team is in bold.

Dolphins (-1.5) over Bills

Two teams that everybody’s going goo-goo gah-gah for after Week 1. The Dolphins toppled mighty New England in convincing fashion while the Bills went on the road and shocked the Bears in Chicago. The Bills crowd is sure to be raucous and it’s tough to trust Ryan Tannehill on the road, but if the Dolphins caused so many fits for Tom Brady last week, it’s tough to see EJ Manuel overcoming those same obstacles. Miami 24, Buffalo 20

Jaguars (+5) over Redskins

Jacksonville put a scare into a whole slew of “suicide pool” participants who picked against them last week, as the Jaguars bludgeoned the Eagles for an entire half before falling apart. This pick is more anti-Washington than pro-Jacksonville, as the Redskins haven’t shown anything that warrants them being a 5 point favorite, regardless of opponent. Jacksonville is frisky and will keep this one close. Washington 28, Jacksonville 27

Cowboys (+3) over Titans

Leave Dallas alone!!! It was a rough Week 1 for the Cowboys- to say the least. Everyone said they were going to get creamed…and then they got creamed. And at home, no less. The Cowboys hate has become a little much, and they have the offensive talent to go toe-to-toe with Tennessee. Dallas 20, Tennessee 15

Cardinals (+2) over Giants

Last week, the Giants looked like a team that didn’t have a preseason of preparation. Until Big Blue’s offense makes some significant leaps forward, it’s very tough to trust them. Arizona is coming across the country to play in the early timeslot, but the Cards defense will have their way with the Giants. Arizona 17, Giants 6

Patriots (-3) over Vikings

The Adrian Peterson story overshadows everything that will take place on the field in Minnesota, and it’s tough to imagine the Vikings having much of a chance without him. Unless Cordarrell Patterson has a circus-like game, Minnesota won’t be able to keep up with the unfamiliar-ly 0-1 Pats. New England 30, Minnesota 20

Saints (-5) over Browns

The Saints are certainly kicking themselves after blowing Week 1’s divisional game against the Falcons. The Browns defense is stout, and went on the road to give Pittsburgh all it could handle in Week 1. But New Orleans will be too much to handle. New Orleans 27, Cleveland 17

Falcons (+5) over Bengals

Can Atlanta be for real? Last week’s win over the Saints was undeniably impressive, as Matt Ryan put up video game-like stats. Cincinnati notched an impressive win themselves last week, going on the road to topple Baltimore. But still, 5 points seems like a staggering line for this one. Take the points and be safe. Cincinnati 20, Atlanta 19

Panthers (Pickem!) over Lions

Cammy Cam’s back. ‘Nuff said. (**this pick is not objective nor thought-inducing.) Carolina 27, Detroit 21

Chargers (+5) over Seahawks

Perhaps the toughest game of the week to pick. It seems no spread could be too high for Seattle when they’re playing at home. But on the road? Against a sneaky-good Charger squad? When in doubt, I’m taking the lofty spread. But far and away my least confident pick of the week. Seattle 21, San Diego 17

Jets (+7) over Packers

Oh, wait. THIS is my least confident pick of the week. Run, run, run. And then run some more. It’s the Jets gameplan that everybody’s expecting, as Green Bay can be pushed around defensively and Aaron Rodgers is least terrifying while on the sidelines. It would not shock me in the least bit if the Jets lost by two touchdowns (or worse), but if the run game is working from start to finish, this one could go down to the wire. Green Bay 26, Jets 21

Texans (-3) over Raiders

The Raiders- like most underdogs- were quite frisky in Week 1. But Houston’s defense showed glimmers of dominance last week. And despite the friendly confines of Oakland, I see the Texans pulling away late in this one. Houston 23, Oakland 10

Broncos (-11.5) over Chiefs

Always tough laying this many points. But perhaps Denver is a little ornery over how close things got last week against Indy. Throw in the fact that it’s a divisional game…and it doesn’t appear Peyton & co will be messing around this week. Denver 37, Kansas City 20

Colts (-3) over Eagles

Speaking of Indy, tough to see them starting 0-2. The Eagles got overmatched by Chad Henne for an entire half last week, so all-world talent Andrew Luck should fine plenty of open receivers all day. Philly’s offense is as scary as it gets when they’re clicking, but again…Andrew Luck’s not starting 0-2. No way Jose. Indianapolis 26, Philadelphia 21

CTR Lock of the Week

Bucs (-4) over Rams
Seems like the safest bet. The Rams don’t have a legitimate quarterback, and they’re on the road. Tampa got all kinds of love (probably too much) before the season started, only to go belly-up against the Cam-less Panthers last week. They bounce back in a big way at home. Tampa Bay 27, St. Louis 6

CTR Upset Special

Bears (+7) over 49ers
You betcha! Despite last week’s beatdown of the Cowboys, I’m not convinced all is hunky dory in San Fran. Chicago’s beastly receivers are both hobbled, which makes it scary. But I see a monster day from Matt Forte and the Bears, shocking the Niners in primetime. Chicago 24, San Francisco 23

Enjoy all the action!!