Welcome back to the blog, and welcome to hockey's second round! It's almost mind-boggling that teams that have come this far are only one-quarter of the way towards earning their ultimate goal. Tonight's Game 7 between the Ducks and Predators will be the final added piece to the NHL's "Elite Eight," and this bunch indeed includes some local flare. The Islanders advanced to the second round for the first time since 1993, sparking a Brooklyn party following Game 6's overtime clincher by captain John Tavares. While the Rangers ran into a buzzsaw Penguins team and did not have the same luck, there is still plenty of intrigue to get to. With the Western Conference first round is still (weirdly) going on as the second round starts in the East, let's roll through what to expect on just one side of the bracket in Round 2. Starting with the main event:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M Washington Capitals vs #2M Pittsburgh Penguins
Season Series: Five games- Three wins for PIT (one in OT); Two wins for WAS
Moxy Measurable: WAS 9/10; PIT 10/10
Sentimentality Scale: WAS 9/10; PIT 7/10
Stanley Cup Odds: WAS 27:10; PIT 19:5
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "To be the Man...you gotta beat the Man!" - Ric Flair
Relevant 1993 Anthem: "Two Princes" - Spin Doctors
Lessons from Round One: This one has all the makings of insanity. And a whole lot of fun. It's the undisputed champions of the NHL's regular season going skate-to-skate with the undisputed hottest team in the league. The Stanley Cup odds above admittedly look a little wonky (rough math: WAS 2.7:1 and PIT 4:1), but these also represents the two best odds of the nine teams remaining (Nine will become eight once Anaheim and Nashville settle their Game 7 tonight out west). Which almost seems impossible- two teams facing off in the quarterfinals having the two best odds. But that is the feeling in this one: these are the cream of the crop. Washington certainly (and expectedly) got the better of Philadelphia in the opening round. But with the recent playoff history of black eyes for the Caps, fans couldn't help but worry when their 3-0 series lead suddenly became 3-2. With the stunning play of goalie Braden Holtby (5 goals allowed in six games, two shutouts), the Capitals had enough to dispatch the Flyers. Alex Ovechkin got his production, usually on the power play, while less talked about Nicklas Backstrom put on an absolute show across the entire series. The Caps are loaded, and become even scarier if rising star Evgeny Kuznetsov (just one point in Round One) can find his groove.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, steamrolled the Rangers in a five-game series that didn't even seem that close. Evgeni Malkin returned and had a monster series, as did the usual suspects of Crosby, Letang, and (gasp!!) often-maligned Phil Kessel. The question with the Pens this playoff season, though, has never been the 5-on-5 talent...it's been that all-important sixth guy standing in the crease. Marc Andre Fleury still has concussion issues, meaning it will be the unheralded Matt Murray likely to shoulder the load. Murray played great in closing out the Rangers after taking over for Jeff Zatkoff in Game 3, but to say these Capitals will bring a new level of firepower would be a real understatement.
The Pick: Pundits from coast to coast are envisioning a seven-game classic in this one. Personally? I think that surprise test from Philly was exactly what the Capitals needed. After over six months of running roughshod through the league and arguably not playing much of a "meaningful game" in weeks, I think the alarm clock hath been rung D.C. In all the years of playoff shortcomings during the Ovechkin era, Pittsburgh has often been the grim reaper in their biggest heartaches. I think the Capitals have known for a long time that Crosby & co. would be their biggest test in their quest for the Cup, and they are ready for this. And, uh, playing a backup goalie doesn't hurt either. Don't adjust your computer screen...this one ends shockingly quick.
CAPITALS IN 5
#2A Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (WC) New York Islanders
Season Series: Three games- Two wins for NYI; One win TB
Moxy Measurable: TB 8/10; NYI 6/10
Sentimentality Scale: TB 8/10; NYI 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: TB 12:1; NYI 14:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "I will give you a show that you've never seen before. Why? Because I can" -
Shawn Michaels
Relevant 1993 Anthem: "Reason to Believe" - Rod Stewart
Lessons from Round One: It feels a bit like the "ugly stepchild" series in the East, as the Crosby/Ovechkin showdown is sure to soak up all the national attention. But surely neither of these teams have a problem with continuing to fly under the radar. Though it may get less attention, it's the same odds at stake with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. Your feelings on long layoffs during the playoffs (rest vs. rust) may sway how this series turns out. Tampa hasn't played in forever- eliminating the Red Wings last Thursday in the five-game series. They are missing their superstar forward Steven Stamkos, but you could hardly notice it against Detroit. Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson, Alex Killorn, and even Jonathan Drouin provided all the firepower needed against an overwhelmed Red Wings squad. While the offense held its own, the defending Eastern Conference champs will once again hitch their wagon to goaltender Ben Bishop. He was sharp as a tack against Detroit and--as the Rangers saw last year-- can wreck a series with his stellar play. Tampa will also have the home ice advantage to go along with their considerable "experience" edge in the series.
While the Lightning were able to kick their feet up and relax all week, the Islanders were engaged in double-overtime slugfests against the Panthers in Round One. The six game series felt like 20 games, as each was decided by one goal and three of the Isles' four wins needed one overtime or more. Nevertheless, New York finally got the monkey off their back and have advanced to this point. While Islanders fans have known the name and true value of John Tavares for many seasons, his eye popping performance in the first round- particularly the clincher- has put him on the mainstream map of superstardom. He put together nine points in the six games, while helping linemate Kyle Okposo notch six points. Though the top line asserted their will on the feisty yet inexperienced Panthers, the Lightning defensive prowess is bound to give them far more resistance. The Islanders can no longer afford to escape without secondary scoring from the likes of Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey, Nikolay Kulemin & co. Goaltender Thomas Greiss put on a first round performance that was every bit as good as Bishop, Holtby, you name it. But without any kind of playoff experience prior to this season, it's fair to worry about whether the grind of his first postseason as starter will take its toll against the scary Tampa attack. The Islanders are thrilled to have gotten to this point, as the celebration of Game 6 in Brooklyn had clearly indicated. Though they are hungry for more, they cannot afford to keep the status quo of their performance against Florida.
The Pick: Don't be fooled into thinking the Isles are a bigtime underdog in this series. New York finished three points higher in the standings than the Lightning, even with the perceived two-game "tanking" at the end. Stamkos is a tremendous loss for Tampa, no doubt. But the Lightning have the defensive prowess and proven goaltender that can withstand such a loss. But this year's version of the Islanders can consider themselves the best team to put on the jersey in over two decades. With a fanbase that now has New York all to itself (in the hockey sense). Greiss will need to continue holding up his end of the bargain, which will be easier said than done. And with the young forwards knowing they can be benched at any time and miss out on the excitement (see: Ryan Strome last round), perhaps that lights the fire for supplementary scoring. But with teams this closely matched, this pick gets filed under "one team has John Tavares...and the other team doesn't."
ISLANDERS IN 7
Thank you for reading and enjoy the action!
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
NHL Playoffs 2016: Time to Ring the Bell!
It's time.
It's here.
It's...sadly the only thing that gets me to dust off the typewriter once a year.
Hockey. Playoffs. 2k16.
The sun has shined brightly on the new baseball season and the Masters Tournament, but the sports world now zeroes in on chilly arenas throughout the USA (not this year, Canada...) for the NHL playoffs.
Sixteen teams remain standing after the rigorous regular season schedule. And though there are some clear favorites, everyone currently sits tied at the top at 0-0. Climbing the 16-win mountain over the next two months will earn the glory of all glories. Ready to get started with the round one matchups? I thought you'd never ask, darlin.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M Washington Capitals vs (WC) Philadelphia Flyers
Season Series: Four games- Two regulation wins for WAS; Two OT wins for PHI
Moxy Measurable: WAS 9/10; PHI 2/10
Sentimentality Scale: WAS 7/10; PHI 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: WAS 7:2; PHI 50:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "Brock Lesnar is a conquerer who is not here to put smiles on people's faces...Brock Lesnar is here to shock the WWE universe and put tears in the eyes of children!" - Paul Heyman
The Breakdown: The Flyers have plenty reason to hold their heads way up high. Not a whole lot was expected this season from the squad, and they got to this point with little more than grit and just-enough defense. But as good an accomplishment as it was...they look to be running into a real buzzsaw in this Capitals team. Washington's 120 points this season blew away the competition (nobody was within 10 points of them.) They are in the league's top 2 in both goals scored and goals against, with both special teams units in the NHL's top 5. They have the best scorer in the league in Alex Ovechkin and an ironman goalie that it playoff tested (Braden Holtby). Despite it being "taboo talk" in the hockey world, this has the makings of one team being thrilled to have made it, thrilled to give its home fans two juiced playoff games...yet ultimately overmatched in every conceivable way out on the ice. The notion of playing with house money and nothing to lose certainly means something, but in this case it will likely mean just one home win.
The Pick: Can't be detailed enough in how much the Capitals are superior to the Flyers. But they've been here before and horrifically come up short. For at least this round, they're safe.
Capitals in 5
#2M Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #3M New York Rangers
Season Series: Four games- Three wins (one in OT) for PIT; One win NYR
Moxy Measurable: PIT 10/10; NYR 7/10
Sentimentality Scale: PIT 1/10; NYR 8/10
Stanley Cup Odds: PIT 15:2; NYR 15:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "I didn't sell out...I bought in." - Seth Rollins
The Breakdown: Those who may have watched or followed along with the last two Islanders games of the season were treated with extreme awkwardness and rather obvious "tanking." The Isles had full control over their ability to leapfrog the Rangers in the standings and escape the wild card spot. But, uh, that would have meant a matchup against the hottest team in the league and the Islanders, uh, declined. The Penguins have been borderline terrifying of late, as the official Moxy Measurable scale indicates above. It's all quite confusing, seeing how the surge seemed to coincide with the injury of superstar forward Evgeni Malkin. Since a March 8th 2-1 loss to the Islanders, the Penguins have won 14 games and lost 2 (one of which was the season finale that had zero importance to them.) Crosby & co are primed for a deep playoff run. But now significant questions arise as to the health of their goalie Marc Andre Fleury. The Rangers, meanwhile, added forward Eric Staal at the deadline to join the usual cast of characters- anchored of course by Henrik Lundqvist in goal. The sneaky little secret, though, is the Rangers goals against is rather middle of the pack this season. The Mats Zuccarello led offense helped bail out some of the slippage on the back side (that sounds so wrong but it's not going anywhere.) The Penguins' scorching finish to the season should not overshadow the fact that these teams were just three points apart in the standings, and division rivals who are plenty familiar with each other. All the makings of a great opening series.
The Pick: Neither team is going to fear the other, and the goaltending advantage appears to be lopsided in the Rangers' direction. The Blueshirts' high grade on the patented Sentimentality Scale comes from the "Lundqvist Effect". His window appears to be starting to close, and his teammates know it may be now or never to get their King his Cup. It should be the best series of the opening round, but God help my soul I'm going Rangers in 7.
#1A Florida Panthers vs. (WC) New York Islanders
Season Series: Three games- Two wins FLA (one in OT); One win NYI
Moxy Measurable: FLA 3/10; NYI 7/10
Sentimentality Scale: FLA 10/10; NYI 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: FLA 20:1; NYI 20:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "Woo Woo Woo, you know it!" - Zack Ryder
The Breakdown: Well at least we're guaranteed one fan base it's gonna party like it's the mid-1990s. The two longest droughts in terms of playoff series wins (FLA 1996; NYI 1993) face off in this one. Florida shocked the hockey world with its Atlantic Division title. But despite not being flashy or spectacular in any one area, the Panthers quietly nestled themselves into the league's top 10 in both goals scored and allowed. The combination of the ageless Jaromir Jagr and prodigal son Roberto Luongo has spiked the Cats to a blistering 10 on the S.S. above. But behind those old folks are a young core that is built to last but also ready to get a taste of playoff success now. The Islanders feel they're more than poised to build on recent playoff shortfalls and finally do some real damage. The problem is the plan got sidetracked when Jaro Halak went out to a freak injury last month. He will miss the first round, leaving Thomas Greiss with the enormous burden of his first playoff series as a starter. Greiss has been more than capable in a reduced role this season, and this series will hinge on his ability to take the reigns and stand tall against the potent Florida attack. John Tavares & co will need to withstand another huge loss in forward Anders Lee, who broke his leg earlier this month. The young talent up front (Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson) has been disappointingly inconsistent this entire season, but can right a lot of wrongs with a strong showing here.
The Pick: Speaking completely biased, I need to think neutral folks are upset these two teams need to play each other so early. On their own, both are rather root-able if only because it's been so impossibly long since they've enjoyed success. But I think the brutal 7-game series loss to the Capitals last year gave the Islanders an experience that the young Panthers still need to feel. Greiss will be the key, but in the first year of the Barclays Center the Isles give the fans reason to go crazy at home when the result is Islanders in 6.
#2A Tampa Bay Lightning vs. #3A Detroit Red Wings
Season Series: Four games- Two wins TB; Two wins DET
Moxy Measurable: TB 5/10; DET 5/10
Sentimentality Scale: TB 4/10; DET 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: TB 18:1; DET 40:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "You are watching the longest running weekly episodic show in history!" - Michael Cole
The Breakdown: Tampa Bay is fresh off a Stanley Cup Final appearance, and were humming along just fine...until a freak injury to a player they just cannot afford to lose. Steven Stamkos is one of the best goal scorers in the league and the straw that stirs the drink offensively for the Bolts. But with a blood clot likely to sideline him for the entire playoffs, it will be star goalie Ben Bishop and the role players trying to make do. Their first test is not an enormous one, as the Red Wings are not particularly strong in any area. Jimmy Howard has somewhat picked up his play of late in goal, but besides superstar in the making rookie Dylan Larkin having his breakthrough season, it's not much. The proud Red Wings have extended their insane streak of postseason appearances, and they will need to hang their hat on that because it will be a short stay.
The Pick: Hopefully the series is better on the ice than the ho-hum matchup it appears to be on paper. Lightning in 6.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1C Dallas Stars vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild
Season Series: Five games- Four wins DAL (3 in OT); One win MIN
Moxy Measurable: DAL 8/10; MIN 3/10
Sentimentality Scale: DAL 4/10; MIN 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: DAL 8:1; MIN 30:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "This is MY house!" - Paige
The Breakdown: The old Minnesota North Stars take on the now-Minnesota Wild. A great matchup for the storybooks, but it may not be pretty out on the ice. Minnesota's 87 points were far and away the lowest total for any playoff team, and they lost 5 straight to close the season. On an even darker note, star forward Zach Parise is dealing with back issues. The only place Minnesota is trending upwards is on a map of the USA. (was that a good one? I don't think it was bad.)
Dallas, meanwhile, conquered the "division of death," as a very impressive 3 teams from the Central finished with more than 103 points. Jamie Benn and the (perhaps banged up?) Tyler Seguin lead the NHL's #1 scoring attack. While goaltending will be an issue as the Stars face the cream of the crop later on in the tourney, they will overwhelm the Wild.
The Pick: At least Minnesota made it in. If they were in the East they wouldn't have qualified. So, ya know, there's that... Stars in 4.
#2C St. Louis Blues vs. #3C Chicago Blackhawks
Season Series: Five games- Three wins STL (all in OT); Two wins CHI
Moxy Measurable: STL 8/10; CHI 10/10
Sentimentality Scale: STL 9/10; CHI 2/10
Stanley Cup Odds: STL 9:1; CHI 13:2
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "The Champ is here." - John Cena
The Breakdown: As we said before, the Central division was diabolical. The Stars' true reward for winning the division was not having to face wither of these behemoths in round one. It's very unique to see two round one opponents both in the top 7 as far as Stanley Cup odds, but that's the case here. The Blues are very, very good- particularly on special teams. And Vlad Tarasenko could steal a couple games on his own. But you just get the feeling that at this point, the regular season is just a dress rehearsal for Chicago. They know exactly what to do come playoff time, and have proven it with three titles in the last six years. Patrick Kane has taken his game to Level 11 this season, and all the familiar faces are around him for another deep run.
The Pick: Taking nothing away from St. Louis and their tremendous season, but can't pick against Chicago this early. Blackhawks in 7
#1P Anaheim Ducks vs. (WC) Nashville Predators
Season Series: Three games- Two wins NSH; One win ANA
Moxy Measurable: ANA 7/10; NSH 5/10
Sentimentality Scale: ANA 6/10; NSH 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: ANA 8:1; NSH 25:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "It's a New Day, yes it is." - The New Day
The Breakdown: It's hard to get a read on these Predators. While formidable, they seem to have taken a noticeable step back from the team that couldn't quite get over the hump the last five years. They are not in the league's top 10 in goals scored, against, or any special teams. The Ducks, meanwhile, have been a defensive supernova with ace special teams this season. They have been stubborn in keeping their core together, with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry once again leading the way. It may not be enough to take on the true beats of the conference, but Nashville does not look to be that much of an obstacle.
The Pick: Quack Quack Quack. Ducks in 6
#2P Los Angeles Kings vs. #3P San Jose Sharks
Season Series: Five games- Three wins SJ; Two wins LA (one in OT)
Moxy Measurable: LA 9/10; SJ 2/10
Sentimentality Scale: LA 3/10; SJ 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: LA 8:1; SJ 15:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "You stupid idiot! You stupid man!" - Chris Jericho
The Breakdown: The Sharks...what can you say? If Anaheim is "stubborn," then what the heck is San Jose?? We're humbly entering year #72 of the Joe Thornton/Joe Pavelski/Patrick Marleau regime, and once again they're here for what many expect to be the latest chapter of playoff shortcoming. San Jose may have PTSD seeing the Kings in round one. It was two short years ago the Sharks were up 3-0 on Los Angeles before joining the historical list of chokejobs. Stop me if you've heard this before- but the Kings will go as far as goalie Jonathan Quick takes them. Make no mistake, this can definitely be a very long way. But after some pretty vanilla picks in the rest of the matchups, need to make the Chris Jericho quote applicable.
The Pick: San Jose erases oh so many demons. And does so in shockingly impressive style. Sharks in 5.
Could you tell I often can't stay up late and/or get television feeds of Western Conference games? Maybe shuffle those picks out of sight when you call into Vegas.
But who cares- the playoffs are here!! DING-DING-DING!
Enjoy it.
It's here.
It's...sadly the only thing that gets me to dust off the typewriter once a year.
Hockey. Playoffs. 2k16.
The sun has shined brightly on the new baseball season and the Masters Tournament, but the sports world now zeroes in on chilly arenas throughout the USA (not this year, Canada...) for the NHL playoffs.
Sixteen teams remain standing after the rigorous regular season schedule. And though there are some clear favorites, everyone currently sits tied at the top at 0-0. Climbing the 16-win mountain over the next two months will earn the glory of all glories. Ready to get started with the round one matchups? I thought you'd never ask, darlin.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M Washington Capitals vs (WC) Philadelphia Flyers
Season Series: Four games- Two regulation wins for WAS; Two OT wins for PHI
Moxy Measurable: WAS 9/10; PHI 2/10
Sentimentality Scale: WAS 7/10; PHI 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: WAS 7:2; PHI 50:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "Brock Lesnar is a conquerer who is not here to put smiles on people's faces...Brock Lesnar is here to shock the WWE universe and put tears in the eyes of children!" - Paul Heyman
The Breakdown: The Flyers have plenty reason to hold their heads way up high. Not a whole lot was expected this season from the squad, and they got to this point with little more than grit and just-enough defense. But as good an accomplishment as it was...they look to be running into a real buzzsaw in this Capitals team. Washington's 120 points this season blew away the competition (nobody was within 10 points of them.) They are in the league's top 2 in both goals scored and goals against, with both special teams units in the NHL's top 5. They have the best scorer in the league in Alex Ovechkin and an ironman goalie that it playoff tested (Braden Holtby). Despite it being "taboo talk" in the hockey world, this has the makings of one team being thrilled to have made it, thrilled to give its home fans two juiced playoff games...yet ultimately overmatched in every conceivable way out on the ice. The notion of playing with house money and nothing to lose certainly means something, but in this case it will likely mean just one home win.
The Pick: Can't be detailed enough in how much the Capitals are superior to the Flyers. But they've been here before and horrifically come up short. For at least this round, they're safe.
Capitals in 5
#2M Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #3M New York Rangers
Season Series: Four games- Three wins (one in OT) for PIT; One win NYR
Moxy Measurable: PIT 10/10; NYR 7/10
Sentimentality Scale: PIT 1/10; NYR 8/10
Stanley Cup Odds: PIT 15:2; NYR 15:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "I didn't sell out...I bought in." - Seth Rollins
The Breakdown: Those who may have watched or followed along with the last two Islanders games of the season were treated with extreme awkwardness and rather obvious "tanking." The Isles had full control over their ability to leapfrog the Rangers in the standings and escape the wild card spot. But, uh, that would have meant a matchup against the hottest team in the league and the Islanders, uh, declined. The Penguins have been borderline terrifying of late, as the official Moxy Measurable scale indicates above. It's all quite confusing, seeing how the surge seemed to coincide with the injury of superstar forward Evgeni Malkin. Since a March 8th 2-1 loss to the Islanders, the Penguins have won 14 games and lost 2 (one of which was the season finale that had zero importance to them.) Crosby & co are primed for a deep playoff run. But now significant questions arise as to the health of their goalie Marc Andre Fleury. The Rangers, meanwhile, added forward Eric Staal at the deadline to join the usual cast of characters- anchored of course by Henrik Lundqvist in goal. The sneaky little secret, though, is the Rangers goals against is rather middle of the pack this season. The Mats Zuccarello led offense helped bail out some of the slippage on the back side (that sounds so wrong but it's not going anywhere.) The Penguins' scorching finish to the season should not overshadow the fact that these teams were just three points apart in the standings, and division rivals who are plenty familiar with each other. All the makings of a great opening series.
The Pick: Neither team is going to fear the other, and the goaltending advantage appears to be lopsided in the Rangers' direction. The Blueshirts' high grade on the patented Sentimentality Scale comes from the "Lundqvist Effect". His window appears to be starting to close, and his teammates know it may be now or never to get their King his Cup. It should be the best series of the opening round, but God help my soul I'm going Rangers in 7.
#1A Florida Panthers vs. (WC) New York Islanders
Season Series: Three games- Two wins FLA (one in OT); One win NYI
Moxy Measurable: FLA 3/10; NYI 7/10
Sentimentality Scale: FLA 10/10; NYI 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: FLA 20:1; NYI 20:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "Woo Woo Woo, you know it!" - Zack Ryder
The Breakdown: Well at least we're guaranteed one fan base it's gonna party like it's the mid-1990s. The two longest droughts in terms of playoff series wins (FLA 1996; NYI 1993) face off in this one. Florida shocked the hockey world with its Atlantic Division title. But despite not being flashy or spectacular in any one area, the Panthers quietly nestled themselves into the league's top 10 in both goals scored and allowed. The combination of the ageless Jaromir Jagr and prodigal son Roberto Luongo has spiked the Cats to a blistering 10 on the S.S. above. But behind those old folks are a young core that is built to last but also ready to get a taste of playoff success now. The Islanders feel they're more than poised to build on recent playoff shortfalls and finally do some real damage. The problem is the plan got sidetracked when Jaro Halak went out to a freak injury last month. He will miss the first round, leaving Thomas Greiss with the enormous burden of his first playoff series as a starter. Greiss has been more than capable in a reduced role this season, and this series will hinge on his ability to take the reigns and stand tall against the potent Florida attack. John Tavares & co will need to withstand another huge loss in forward Anders Lee, who broke his leg earlier this month. The young talent up front (Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson) has been disappointingly inconsistent this entire season, but can right a lot of wrongs with a strong showing here.
The Pick: Speaking completely biased, I need to think neutral folks are upset these two teams need to play each other so early. On their own, both are rather root-able if only because it's been so impossibly long since they've enjoyed success. But I think the brutal 7-game series loss to the Capitals last year gave the Islanders an experience that the young Panthers still need to feel. Greiss will be the key, but in the first year of the Barclays Center the Isles give the fans reason to go crazy at home when the result is Islanders in 6.
#2A Tampa Bay Lightning vs. #3A Detroit Red Wings
Season Series: Four games- Two wins TB; Two wins DET
Moxy Measurable: TB 5/10; DET 5/10
Sentimentality Scale: TB 4/10; DET 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: TB 18:1; DET 40:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "You are watching the longest running weekly episodic show in history!" - Michael Cole
The Breakdown: Tampa Bay is fresh off a Stanley Cup Final appearance, and were humming along just fine...until a freak injury to a player they just cannot afford to lose. Steven Stamkos is one of the best goal scorers in the league and the straw that stirs the drink offensively for the Bolts. But with a blood clot likely to sideline him for the entire playoffs, it will be star goalie Ben Bishop and the role players trying to make do. Their first test is not an enormous one, as the Red Wings are not particularly strong in any area. Jimmy Howard has somewhat picked up his play of late in goal, but besides superstar in the making rookie Dylan Larkin having his breakthrough season, it's not much. The proud Red Wings have extended their insane streak of postseason appearances, and they will need to hang their hat on that because it will be a short stay.
The Pick: Hopefully the series is better on the ice than the ho-hum matchup it appears to be on paper. Lightning in 6.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1C Dallas Stars vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild
Season Series: Five games- Four wins DAL (3 in OT); One win MIN
Moxy Measurable: DAL 8/10; MIN 3/10
Sentimentality Scale: DAL 4/10; MIN 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: DAL 8:1; MIN 30:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "This is MY house!" - Paige
The Breakdown: The old Minnesota North Stars take on the now-Minnesota Wild. A great matchup for the storybooks, but it may not be pretty out on the ice. Minnesota's 87 points were far and away the lowest total for any playoff team, and they lost 5 straight to close the season. On an even darker note, star forward Zach Parise is dealing with back issues. The only place Minnesota is trending upwards is on a map of the USA. (was that a good one? I don't think it was bad.)
Dallas, meanwhile, conquered the "division of death," as a very impressive 3 teams from the Central finished with more than 103 points. Jamie Benn and the (perhaps banged up?) Tyler Seguin lead the NHL's #1 scoring attack. While goaltending will be an issue as the Stars face the cream of the crop later on in the tourney, they will overwhelm the Wild.
The Pick: At least Minnesota made it in. If they were in the East they wouldn't have qualified. So, ya know, there's that... Stars in 4.
#2C St. Louis Blues vs. #3C Chicago Blackhawks
Season Series: Five games- Three wins STL (all in OT); Two wins CHI
Moxy Measurable: STL 8/10; CHI 10/10
Sentimentality Scale: STL 9/10; CHI 2/10
Stanley Cup Odds: STL 9:1; CHI 13:2
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "The Champ is here." - John Cena
The Breakdown: As we said before, the Central division was diabolical. The Stars' true reward for winning the division was not having to face wither of these behemoths in round one. It's very unique to see two round one opponents both in the top 7 as far as Stanley Cup odds, but that's the case here. The Blues are very, very good- particularly on special teams. And Vlad Tarasenko could steal a couple games on his own. But you just get the feeling that at this point, the regular season is just a dress rehearsal for Chicago. They know exactly what to do come playoff time, and have proven it with three titles in the last six years. Patrick Kane has taken his game to Level 11 this season, and all the familiar faces are around him for another deep run.
The Pick: Taking nothing away from St. Louis and their tremendous season, but can't pick against Chicago this early. Blackhawks in 7
#1P Anaheim Ducks vs. (WC) Nashville Predators
Season Series: Three games- Two wins NSH; One win ANA
Moxy Measurable: ANA 7/10; NSH 5/10
Sentimentality Scale: ANA 6/10; NSH 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: ANA 8:1; NSH 25:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "It's a New Day, yes it is." - The New Day
The Breakdown: It's hard to get a read on these Predators. While formidable, they seem to have taken a noticeable step back from the team that couldn't quite get over the hump the last five years. They are not in the league's top 10 in goals scored, against, or any special teams. The Ducks, meanwhile, have been a defensive supernova with ace special teams this season. They have been stubborn in keeping their core together, with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry once again leading the way. It may not be enough to take on the true beats of the conference, but Nashville does not look to be that much of an obstacle.
The Pick: Quack Quack Quack. Ducks in 6
#2P Los Angeles Kings vs. #3P San Jose Sharks
Season Series: Five games- Three wins SJ; Two wins LA (one in OT)
Moxy Measurable: LA 9/10; SJ 2/10
Sentimentality Scale: LA 3/10; SJ 9/10
Stanley Cup Odds: LA 8:1; SJ 15:1
Applicable WWE Catchphrase: "You stupid idiot! You stupid man!" - Chris Jericho
The Breakdown: The Sharks...what can you say? If Anaheim is "stubborn," then what the heck is San Jose?? We're humbly entering year #72 of the Joe Thornton/Joe Pavelski/Patrick Marleau regime, and once again they're here for what many expect to be the latest chapter of playoff shortcoming. San Jose may have PTSD seeing the Kings in round one. It was two short years ago the Sharks were up 3-0 on Los Angeles before joining the historical list of chokejobs. Stop me if you've heard this before- but the Kings will go as far as goalie Jonathan Quick takes them. Make no mistake, this can definitely be a very long way. But after some pretty vanilla picks in the rest of the matchups, need to make the Chris Jericho quote applicable.
The Pick: San Jose erases oh so many demons. And does so in shockingly impressive style. Sharks in 5.
Could you tell I often can't stay up late and/or get television feeds of Western Conference games? Maybe shuffle those picks out of sight when you call into Vegas.
But who cares- the playoffs are here!! DING-DING-DING!
Enjoy it.
Saturday, May 16, 2015
NHL Conference Finals: Get'Cha Head in the Game
Conference finals time! And with the Rangers and Lightning within minutes of puck-drop, let's get right to it!!
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. #2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points)
Season Series: Lightning won all three games, all in regulation.
Stanley Cup Odds: Rangers 2/1 (best in final four); Lightning 9/2 (worst)
Relevant High School Musical Quote: "Do you remember in kindergarten, how you'd meet a kid, and know nothing about them, then 10 seconds later you're playing like you're best friends, because you didn't have to be anything but yourself? Singing with you felt like that." -Gabriella, HSM 1
Round Two Roundup: Are the Rangers equipped for another marathon? ; Are the Lightning equipped to topple another all-world goalie?
Round Three Breakdown: The Rangers are the ultimate playoff rodents. Their games- whether wins or losses- are all so incredibly close that their fans are all on the brink of clinical treatment. And being down 3-1 to a rollin' Capitals team and needing to win three straight (two on the road) seemed like mountain too high. But Chris Kreider's game-tying goal with a minute left in Game 5 was a series-turning moment that the Rangers never looked back from. Of course, as per their unspoken arrangement, the three consecutive NYR victories were by one goal. Henrik Lundqvist outdueled Washington's Braden Holtby- who cannot be give enough credit for his outstanding goaltending in the series. And much like last year's epic run to the Cup Final, the Blueshirts appear to be content taking the long scenic route. And the next stop goes through scenic Tampa Bay.
Which creates an interesting dynamic. Taking a look at the season series above, the Lightning had their way with the Rangers when they matched up this year. The combined score of Tampa's three victories: 15-7! And Lundqvist was in goal for all three games. These games need to be taken with a grain of salt, though, as they all occurred in a strange two-week time period over five months ago. But still...don't expect this fantastic Lightning offense to be intimidated by The King.
Tampa also had a long series in their own right against Montreal last round. After mauling the Canadiens in the first three games of the series, their potential sweep turned into a headache when Montreal fought back to win the next two. Their offense is just relentless. In these playoffs, four Tampa players (Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn) have more points that the Rangers' co-leading scorers (Brassard & Stepan.) And they're not all just firepower. As ridiculous as Lundqvist has been with his 1.60 goals against average in these playoffs, Tampa's young Ben Bishop is right there with him at 1.81.
The Pick: It's the playoff-savvy veterans who only play close games against the young upstarts who have the best offense in the entire league. The Rangers will enjoy home ice advantage in the season, and certainly will have a sizable NY contingent when the series shifts down south as well. But there's something in this upstart Lightning that I like. They matured in taking down Detroit in a gritty seven game first round series. They overcame adversity when Montreal came roaring back in round two (ask the Capitals how tough that can be...) And here, facing their third storied Original Six team in as many rounds, Tampa is ready to put the whipped cream and hot fudge on top. Lightning in Six
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. #3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks won two out of three games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Blackhawks 2.25/1 (2nd best); 2.3/1 (3rd best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "My prom...is wherever you are." - Troy Bolton, HSM3
Round Two Roundup: Can anybody stop the Ducks? ; Can anybody stop the Blackhawks?
Round Three Breakdown: Whoaaaaaa Mama, this one is gonna be good. Despite some idiot picking Minnesota to upset Chicago in round two, the Blackhawks romped to a sweep (though to be fair to idiot, three of the four games were decided by one goal.) After all kinds of shakiness regarding their goaltending situation in Round one, Corey Crawford found his ways and Chicago has never looked back. Patrick Kane has not shown a bit of rust since returning from a long injury absence, leading the Hawks in points. He along with the usual suspects Toews, Keith, Sharp, etc. have been an absolute machine, as that core is trying to win their third Stanley Cup in six years.
The Ducks, meanwhile, haven't exactly been slouches. They have played nine games in the first three rounds, and have lost only one of them- in overtime. The offense has ripped off 35 goals in that nine-game span, and Frederik Anderson is another goalie rockin a sub-2.00 goals against average. Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf have been hot as pistols in leading the offense, although Chicago will be by far their biggest playoff test to date. No disrespect to Winnipeg nor Calgary...but they are no Chicago Blackhawks. This series will be long. It will be tough. And the winner will be quite the worthy Western Conference champion. When I'm flipping the coin, give me the squad with Kane and with more playoff moxy. By a smidge.
The Pick: Blackhawks in Seven.
Thanks for reading. And with a game every night for the next two weeks, enjoy the hockey binge!
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. #2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points)
Season Series: Lightning won all three games, all in regulation.
Stanley Cup Odds: Rangers 2/1 (best in final four); Lightning 9/2 (worst)
Relevant High School Musical Quote: "Do you remember in kindergarten, how you'd meet a kid, and know nothing about them, then 10 seconds later you're playing like you're best friends, because you didn't have to be anything but yourself? Singing with you felt like that." -Gabriella, HSM 1
Round Two Roundup: Are the Rangers equipped for another marathon? ; Are the Lightning equipped to topple another all-world goalie?
Round Three Breakdown: The Rangers are the ultimate playoff rodents. Their games- whether wins or losses- are all so incredibly close that their fans are all on the brink of clinical treatment. And being down 3-1 to a rollin' Capitals team and needing to win three straight (two on the road) seemed like mountain too high. But Chris Kreider's game-tying goal with a minute left in Game 5 was a series-turning moment that the Rangers never looked back from. Of course, as per their unspoken arrangement, the three consecutive NYR victories were by one goal. Henrik Lundqvist outdueled Washington's Braden Holtby- who cannot be give enough credit for his outstanding goaltending in the series. And much like last year's epic run to the Cup Final, the Blueshirts appear to be content taking the long scenic route. And the next stop goes through scenic Tampa Bay.
Which creates an interesting dynamic. Taking a look at the season series above, the Lightning had their way with the Rangers when they matched up this year. The combined score of Tampa's three victories: 15-7! And Lundqvist was in goal for all three games. These games need to be taken with a grain of salt, though, as they all occurred in a strange two-week time period over five months ago. But still...don't expect this fantastic Lightning offense to be intimidated by The King.
Tampa also had a long series in their own right against Montreal last round. After mauling the Canadiens in the first three games of the series, their potential sweep turned into a headache when Montreal fought back to win the next two. Their offense is just relentless. In these playoffs, four Tampa players (Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn) have more points that the Rangers' co-leading scorers (Brassard & Stepan.) And they're not all just firepower. As ridiculous as Lundqvist has been with his 1.60 goals against average in these playoffs, Tampa's young Ben Bishop is right there with him at 1.81.
The Pick: It's the playoff-savvy veterans who only play close games against the young upstarts who have the best offense in the entire league. The Rangers will enjoy home ice advantage in the season, and certainly will have a sizable NY contingent when the series shifts down south as well. But there's something in this upstart Lightning that I like. They matured in taking down Detroit in a gritty seven game first round series. They overcame adversity when Montreal came roaring back in round two (ask the Capitals how tough that can be...) And here, facing their third storied Original Six team in as many rounds, Tampa is ready to put the whipped cream and hot fudge on top. Lightning in Six
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. #3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks won two out of three games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Blackhawks 2.25/1 (2nd best); 2.3/1 (3rd best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "My prom...is wherever you are." - Troy Bolton, HSM3
Round Two Roundup: Can anybody stop the Ducks? ; Can anybody stop the Blackhawks?
Round Three Breakdown: Whoaaaaaa Mama, this one is gonna be good. Despite some idiot picking Minnesota to upset Chicago in round two, the Blackhawks romped to a sweep (though to be fair to idiot, three of the four games were decided by one goal.) After all kinds of shakiness regarding their goaltending situation in Round one, Corey Crawford found his ways and Chicago has never looked back. Patrick Kane has not shown a bit of rust since returning from a long injury absence, leading the Hawks in points. He along with the usual suspects Toews, Keith, Sharp, etc. have been an absolute machine, as that core is trying to win their third Stanley Cup in six years.
The Ducks, meanwhile, haven't exactly been slouches. They have played nine games in the first three rounds, and have lost only one of them- in overtime. The offense has ripped off 35 goals in that nine-game span, and Frederik Anderson is another goalie rockin a sub-2.00 goals against average. Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf have been hot as pistols in leading the offense, although Chicago will be by far their biggest playoff test to date. No disrespect to Winnipeg nor Calgary...but they are no Chicago Blackhawks. This series will be long. It will be tough. And the winner will be quite the worthy Western Conference champion. When I'm flipping the coin, give me the squad with Kane and with more playoff moxy. By a smidge.
The Pick: Blackhawks in Seven.
Thanks for reading. And with a game every night for the next two weeks, enjoy the hockey binge!
Thursday, April 30, 2015
NHL Playoffs Round 2: The Quack Attack is Back, Jack
Round one of the NHL Playoffs is in the books, and there are now just eight teams who can still set their sails toward Lord Stanley's Cup. The Lightning closed out the Red Wings 2-0 in Game 7 Wednesday night to close out the first round. Those fans in Detroit join their brokenhearted brethren in Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Vancouver, St. Louis, Nashville, and yes- Long Island (at least the pockets of LI who aren't pro-Rangers.)
So what did we learn in the first round? Well, the higher seeds ran the table in the East (despite Tampa and Washington needing 7-game marathons to do so.) While the West was appropriately wild- three lower seeds overcame home ice disadvantage to oust their foes.
The blog's first round picks were passable- thumbs up on the Rangers/Canadiens/Lightning/Ducks/Flames/Blackhawks; thumbs down on the Blues and You-Know-Who-landers.
And now that we've mentioned them, a quick aside on this season...
Simply incredible. The Isles made some offseason splashes, had folks wondering if there was something coming together for the organization, and then BAM. They won four straight at the start of the season, never let too many cold streaks hit them across the long season, and transformed themselves from a lottery team into a perennial playoff squad that's only going to get better as their insanely young core grows and matures.
Which is why the whole move sucks. So much. It's been beaten into the ground, and very few outside of LI want to hear about this while there's still a Stanley Cup to be won in the coming weeks, but being at all three Nassau Coliseum games gave me such a thrill. A thrill that I just cannot believe will be missed out by future generations of Long Islanders.
Driving along Hempstead Turnpike and seeing the outside video board that simply hasn't been operational for months and months....the entire 16,000+ seat building being accessible via just one concourse....the concessions/bathroom anarchy that results from aforementioned 16,000+ seat building having just one concourse...being able to literally touch/whack/bludgeon the low-hanging ceiling from the top rows, while still having a ridiculously good view of the action...the hundreds of rhythmic car horns sounding "BEEP-BEEP-BEEPBEEPBEEP" to the tune of "Lets-Go-Is-Lan-Ders!"...
It was something special for each and every fan. Right, attendance wasn't great throughout the past several seasons. Correct, several bandwagon fans hopped aboard for the playoff push. But for a team who hasn't won a playoff series in 22 years (by far the highest drought in the NHL- only 5 teams have streaks longer than 10 years), even the bandwagoners haven't had it easy!
The Brooklyn era awaits, and I will begrudgingly welcome it with open arms. After all, as I've learned with Bud Light Lime, The Big Bang Theory, and zumba... "Don't knock it til ya try it." But not-knocking is a far cry from "better experience than the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum." Because the Brooklyn atmosphere is never topping what went down those last three playoff games in Uniondale.
...
Still with me? Good. Great! On to the second round. Let's take a look at who will still be standing as eight becomes four over the next couple weeks....
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. #2M Washington Capitals (101 points)
Season Series: Rangers won three out of four games, all in regulation.
Stanley Cup Odds: Rangers 3/1 (best in NHL); Capitals 10/1 (7th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "THE GOA-LIEEEEEEEEE!!" - Wolf "The Dentist" Stansson, D2
Round One Roundup: Is Henrik Lundqvist of this planet? ; Can the Caps conquer New York?
Round Two Breakdown: As many Ranger fans can attest, that was no ordinary five-game romp over Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby went Sid Vicious in Game 2, tying the series as it shifted to Pittsburgh. But three consecutive 2-1 victories- with the final two coming in overtime- thrust the Rangers into the second round. Goalie Henrik Lundqvist was unbelievable in every sense- completely shutting down the Penguins as the Blueshirt offense did just enough. Can he continue it against the potent Capitals attack?
If you're a Washington fan, you pick between two mindsets. Door number one: "The Islanders effectively shut down superstar Alex Ovechkin for much of the series, and Long Island was without three of their best defensemen. We're screwed against this Ranger blueline!" Door number two: "Ovechkin was facing some serious monkeys on his back and was just pressing. He won't be held down two series in a row...look out, Rangers."
The Capitals have some serious playoff bones to pick with the Rangers. With this being the best regular season NYR team since the 1994 Cup run, nothing would give Ovechkin and the boys more joy than ousting them. Braden Holtby would have to be terrific- as he was for much of Round One.
But in the end, the Rangers just have too much. As good as Holtby has been, the fear of burnout is still ever-present. And even on his best day, he's not Lundqvist. Rick Nash, Derrick Brassard, etc. give the Rangers enough to solve the Caps defense. Washington's spirit will be willing, but the body will be weak.
The Pick: Rangers in Five
#1A Montreal Canadiens (110 points) vs. #2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points)
Season Series: Lightning won ALL five games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Canadiens 6/1 (5th best); Lightning 8/1 (6th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "12 to 1. 12...to...1. You know what word comes to mind when I think of that? PATHETIC!" - Gordon Bombay, D2
Round One Roundup: Did Montreal needlessly miss out on valuable rest? ; Did Tampa's marathon series exhaust them, or allow them to grow up?
The Breakdown: The two squads who battled for Atlantic Division supremacy throughout the six-plus months of the regular season finally get to duke it out in the playoffs. It's time to pick your cup of tea when watching this series- do you want the best scoring offense (Tampa) or the NHL's best 2015 goalie and surefire MVP (Montreal's Carey Price)? Rarely do you see a team earn 110 points in a season and get blanked five times by the same opponent during that season...but good grief the young Lightning must be sky high with confidence.
In what many (present company included) thought would be a relative stomping, Detroit gave Tampa all they could handle.But goalie Ben Bishop lived up to the billing in his game 7 shutout. Incomprehensibly, Tampa won a seven-game series with superstar Steven Stamkos being held without a goal. That will need to change in a hurray if the Lightning are going to solve Price and the Canadien defense.
These teams truly are neck and neck. At the end of the day, though, I see the Eastern Conference coming down to the best goalie of the past decade (Lundqvist) facing off against the unquestioned king of Goaltending 2015 (Price).
The Pick: Canadiens in Seven
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. #3P Calgary Flames (97 points)
Season Series: Ducks won three out of five games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Ducks 4.5/1 (2nd best); Flames 12/1 (8th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "Yes sir, Mr. Ducksworth. Quack Quack QUACK QUACK QUACK, Mr. Ducksworth!" - Gordon Bombay, D1
Round One Roundup: Are the Ducks finally living up the the hype? ; Is Calgary content just winning a round, or are they primed for an underdog run?
Round Two Breakdown: Was there even a Ducks-Jets series? Did I miss it? Was it cool?
The Winnipeg fans gave their squad a hearty salute at home after the Ducks swept them four games straight, but despite one overtime game it really wasn't much of a battle. Frederick Anderson was tremendous in goal for the Quackers, who now take on a Calgary team that out-bullied and out-hustled and most, importantly, out-scored the higher seeded Canucks in Round One.
Jonas Hiller, now with Calgary, goes up against the squad where he enjoyed the most success in his career. Jiri Hudler and Johnny Gaudreau were phenomenal against the Canucks, but it's hard to see that continuing against what appears to be a no-nonsense version of the Ducks. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler lead an attack that will be just too much for the Flames to handle. Though they provided plenty of thrills against Vancouver, the Calgary Flames just don't have the look of a final-four team.
The Pick: Ducks in Six.
#3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points) vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild (100 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks won three out of five games
Stanley Cup Odds: Blackhawks 4.5/1 (3rd best); Wild 5/1 (4th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "I told Coach Orion that you were the heart of the team...and that you would learn something from each other. I told him that you were the real Minnesota Miracle Man. So be that man, Charlie. Be that man." - Gordon Bombay, D3
Round One Roundup: Who the heck plays goalie for Chicago? ; Can Minnesota continue to be goal-scoring maniacs?
Round Two Breakdown: The must-watch series of Round Two. Chicago has all the talent in the world throughout their roster, but their one apparent blemish is where...you never ever want to have the blemish. Corey Crawford is the proven Cup winner, but lays an egg in Game One. Backup Scott Darling went on to pull the game out of the fire, and yet the Blackhawks went back to Crawford in Game Two- only to get blasted 6-2 by Nashville. Then they hand the keys to Darling, who wins games three and four before taking his own beatdown in Game 5. Crawford wins Game six, and Chicago advances in "what the heck do we do here?" fashion.
In comes the Zach Parise-led Minnesota attack, which ripped the heavily favored Blues defense to shreds in Round One. but the story of the series was goalie Devan "Get The Tables" Dubnyk, who put on a fantastic Jeckyll & Hyde routine. When he was good, he was great (four goals total surrendered in Wild's four wins.) When he was bad, he was an albatross (10 goals surrendered in two losses.)
So do we trust the greatness and playoff moxy of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, etc. to make up for the goaltending wackiness in Chicago? In a word, NO!
Three higher seeded teams advance this round, and one plucky Minnesota Wild squad crashes the party as well. Be those men, Minnesota...Be those men.
The Pick: Wild in Seven
Thanks for reading, and enjoy the second round action!!
So what did we learn in the first round? Well, the higher seeds ran the table in the East (despite Tampa and Washington needing 7-game marathons to do so.) While the West was appropriately wild- three lower seeds overcame home ice disadvantage to oust their foes.
The blog's first round picks were passable- thumbs up on the Rangers/Canadiens/Lightning/Ducks/Flames/Blackhawks; thumbs down on the Blues and You-Know-Who-landers.
And now that we've mentioned them, a quick aside on this season...
Simply incredible. The Isles made some offseason splashes, had folks wondering if there was something coming together for the organization, and then BAM. They won four straight at the start of the season, never let too many cold streaks hit them across the long season, and transformed themselves from a lottery team into a perennial playoff squad that's only going to get better as their insanely young core grows and matures.
Which is why the whole move sucks. So much. It's been beaten into the ground, and very few outside of LI want to hear about this while there's still a Stanley Cup to be won in the coming weeks, but being at all three Nassau Coliseum games gave me such a thrill. A thrill that I just cannot believe will be missed out by future generations of Long Islanders.
Driving along Hempstead Turnpike and seeing the outside video board that simply hasn't been operational for months and months....the entire 16,000+ seat building being accessible via just one concourse....the concessions/bathroom anarchy that results from aforementioned 16,000+ seat building having just one concourse...being able to literally touch/whack/bludgeon the low-hanging ceiling from the top rows, while still having a ridiculously good view of the action...the hundreds of rhythmic car horns sounding "BEEP-BEEP-BEEPBEEPBEEP" to the tune of "Lets-Go-Is-Lan-Ders!"...
It was something special for each and every fan. Right, attendance wasn't great throughout the past several seasons. Correct, several bandwagon fans hopped aboard for the playoff push. But for a team who hasn't won a playoff series in 22 years (by far the highest drought in the NHL- only 5 teams have streaks longer than 10 years), even the bandwagoners haven't had it easy!
The Brooklyn era awaits, and I will begrudgingly welcome it with open arms. After all, as I've learned with Bud Light Lime, The Big Bang Theory, and zumba... "Don't knock it til ya try it." But not-knocking is a far cry from "better experience than the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum." Because the Brooklyn atmosphere is never topping what went down those last three playoff games in Uniondale.
...
Still with me? Good. Great! On to the second round. Let's take a look at who will still be standing as eight becomes four over the next couple weeks....
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. #2M Washington Capitals (101 points)
Season Series: Rangers won three out of four games, all in regulation.
Stanley Cup Odds: Rangers 3/1 (best in NHL); Capitals 10/1 (7th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "THE GOA-LIEEEEEEEEE!!" - Wolf "The Dentist" Stansson, D2
Round One Roundup: Is Henrik Lundqvist of this planet? ; Can the Caps conquer New York?
Round Two Breakdown: As many Ranger fans can attest, that was no ordinary five-game romp over Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby went Sid Vicious in Game 2, tying the series as it shifted to Pittsburgh. But three consecutive 2-1 victories- with the final two coming in overtime- thrust the Rangers into the second round. Goalie Henrik Lundqvist was unbelievable in every sense- completely shutting down the Penguins as the Blueshirt offense did just enough. Can he continue it against the potent Capitals attack?
If you're a Washington fan, you pick between two mindsets. Door number one: "The Islanders effectively shut down superstar Alex Ovechkin for much of the series, and Long Island was without three of their best defensemen. We're screwed against this Ranger blueline!" Door number two: "Ovechkin was facing some serious monkeys on his back and was just pressing. He won't be held down two series in a row...look out, Rangers."
The Capitals have some serious playoff bones to pick with the Rangers. With this being the best regular season NYR team since the 1994 Cup run, nothing would give Ovechkin and the boys more joy than ousting them. Braden Holtby would have to be terrific- as he was for much of Round One.
But in the end, the Rangers just have too much. As good as Holtby has been, the fear of burnout is still ever-present. And even on his best day, he's not Lundqvist. Rick Nash, Derrick Brassard, etc. give the Rangers enough to solve the Caps defense. Washington's spirit will be willing, but the body will be weak.
The Pick: Rangers in Five
#1A Montreal Canadiens (110 points) vs. #2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points)
Season Series: Lightning won ALL five games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Canadiens 6/1 (5th best); Lightning 8/1 (6th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "12 to 1. 12...to...1. You know what word comes to mind when I think of that? PATHETIC!" - Gordon Bombay, D2
Round One Roundup: Did Montreal needlessly miss out on valuable rest? ; Did Tampa's marathon series exhaust them, or allow them to grow up?
The Breakdown: The two squads who battled for Atlantic Division supremacy throughout the six-plus months of the regular season finally get to duke it out in the playoffs. It's time to pick your cup of tea when watching this series- do you want the best scoring offense (Tampa) or the NHL's best 2015 goalie and surefire MVP (Montreal's Carey Price)? Rarely do you see a team earn 110 points in a season and get blanked five times by the same opponent during that season...but good grief the young Lightning must be sky high with confidence.
In what many (present company included) thought would be a relative stomping, Detroit gave Tampa all they could handle.But goalie Ben Bishop lived up to the billing in his game 7 shutout. Incomprehensibly, Tampa won a seven-game series with superstar Steven Stamkos being held without a goal. That will need to change in a hurray if the Lightning are going to solve Price and the Canadien defense.
These teams truly are neck and neck. At the end of the day, though, I see the Eastern Conference coming down to the best goalie of the past decade (Lundqvist) facing off against the unquestioned king of Goaltending 2015 (Price).
The Pick: Canadiens in Seven
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. #3P Calgary Flames (97 points)
Season Series: Ducks won three out of five games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Ducks 4.5/1 (2nd best); Flames 12/1 (8th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "Yes sir, Mr. Ducksworth. Quack Quack QUACK QUACK QUACK, Mr. Ducksworth!" - Gordon Bombay, D1
Round One Roundup: Are the Ducks finally living up the the hype? ; Is Calgary content just winning a round, or are they primed for an underdog run?
Round Two Breakdown: Was there even a Ducks-Jets series? Did I miss it? Was it cool?
The Winnipeg fans gave their squad a hearty salute at home after the Ducks swept them four games straight, but despite one overtime game it really wasn't much of a battle. Frederick Anderson was tremendous in goal for the Quackers, who now take on a Calgary team that out-bullied and out-hustled and most, importantly, out-scored the higher seeded Canucks in Round One.
Jonas Hiller, now with Calgary, goes up against the squad where he enjoyed the most success in his career. Jiri Hudler and Johnny Gaudreau were phenomenal against the Canucks, but it's hard to see that continuing against what appears to be a no-nonsense version of the Ducks. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler lead an attack that will be just too much for the Flames to handle. Though they provided plenty of thrills against Vancouver, the Calgary Flames just don't have the look of a final-four team.
The Pick: Ducks in Six.
#3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points) vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild (100 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks won three out of five games
Stanley Cup Odds: Blackhawks 4.5/1 (3rd best); Wild 5/1 (4th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "I told Coach Orion that you were the heart of the team...and that you would learn something from each other. I told him that you were the real Minnesota Miracle Man. So be that man, Charlie. Be that man." - Gordon Bombay, D3
Round One Roundup: Who the heck plays goalie for Chicago? ; Can Minnesota continue to be goal-scoring maniacs?
Round Two Breakdown: The must-watch series of Round Two. Chicago has all the talent in the world throughout their roster, but their one apparent blemish is where...you never ever want to have the blemish. Corey Crawford is the proven Cup winner, but lays an egg in Game One. Backup Scott Darling went on to pull the game out of the fire, and yet the Blackhawks went back to Crawford in Game Two- only to get blasted 6-2 by Nashville. Then they hand the keys to Darling, who wins games three and four before taking his own beatdown in Game 5. Crawford wins Game six, and Chicago advances in "what the heck do we do here?" fashion.
In comes the Zach Parise-led Minnesota attack, which ripped the heavily favored Blues defense to shreds in Round One. but the story of the series was goalie Devan "Get The Tables" Dubnyk, who put on a fantastic Jeckyll & Hyde routine. When he was good, he was great (four goals total surrendered in Wild's four wins.) When he was bad, he was an albatross (10 goals surrendered in two losses.)
So do we trust the greatness and playoff moxy of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, etc. to make up for the goaltending wackiness in Chicago? In a word, NO!
Three higher seeded teams advance this round, and one plucky Minnesota Wild squad crashes the party as well. Be those men, Minnesota...Be those men.
The Pick: Wild in Seven
Thanks for reading, and enjoy the second round action!!
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
2015 NHL Playoffs: Do You Want to Build a Snowman?
It's here.
It's finally, finally here.
Tonight begins the 2015 NHL Playoffs. The season started in October with 30 teams dreaming the ultimate dream of raising the Stanley Cup, and that list has now been whittled down to 16. Included in these 16 are a Rangers team looking to return to the Cup Final after falling short against the Kings last year; as well as an Islanders team looking to write a fairytale ending to its final season at Nassau Coliseum.
These hockey playoffs are the crapshoot of all crapshoots. The upcoming basketball playoffs will also invite 16 teams to the dance...but in reality there are only 4-5 true contenders. In the NHL, seeding is just a number. As the 'Reset' button is pushed on everything from the past 6 months and everybody is now 0-0, it can be a hot goalie, clicking power play, playing on home ice, etc. that makes an underdog team greater than the sum of its parts.
It's why the Bruins and defending-champion Kings were so devastated to lose out on their playoff spots in the final week. These teams weren't playing for a boost in morale & for the right to get blown off the ice by the top seeds in their conference. No. If you're in this tournament, you can authentically win this tournament. Simple as that.
While that part may be simple, picking out who the heck is gonna win this thing is the polar opposite. The puck drops tonight on four of the eight first round series, so let's take a look at what's in store.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. (WC) Pittsburgh Penguins (98 points)
Season Series: Rangers won 3 of 4, Pittsburgh's only win came via shootout
Stanley Cup Odds: New York 5/1 (best); Pittsburgh 16/1 (9th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "I don't have a skull. Or bones..." -Olaf
The Breakdown: Is this finally 'The Year' for the Blueshirts? Last year they came darn close, with marathon playoff series leading to a Cup defeat at the hands of the Kings. But with nearly all the key pieces back for the Rangers and some important pieces also added, things are trending upwards in a big way. The Rangers depth on offense (Rick Nash, Derek Brassard, Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan, Mats Zaccarello) and defense (Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Keith Yandle) are scary enough. And on top of that you have to stare down Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes? These guys are Cup favorites for a reason.
The Penguins have been among the East's elite for the past decade, but injuries have decimated the squad. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are always a risk to steal a game or two, but the Rangers have Pittsburgh outmatched in nearly every element of the game.
The Pick: Unless Lundqvist lays an egg in Game 1 and the "We Want (Cam) Talbot!!" hoopla tears the team apart, the Rangers should dust off the beatup Pens rather quickly.
Rangers in Five
#2M Washington Capitals (101 points) vs. #3M New York Islanders (101 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with three of for games needing Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Washington 18/1 (12th best); New York 20/1 (14th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "Oh Anna... if there was only someone out there who loved you." -Hans
The Breakdown: Ever since the Islanders opened the year winning four straight, it's been a dream season for the Nassau Coliseum's swan song. The Isles even flirting with the top position in the conference for a short period. But it's been a rough finish to the year. Kyle Okposo sustained a midseason eye injury and following his return, did not maintain his torrid pre-injury production. Current injuries to forward Mikhail Grabovski and defenseman Travis Hamonic are also quite concerning. But the biggest worry of all is that goaltender Jaroslav Halak may be showing signs of burnout. The Islanders had some horrific losses down the stretch- which featured blown third period leads and a staggering amount of goals surrendered in the final minute of periods. But despite all the bad, the Islanders made the tournament thanks to the brilliance of franchise player John Tavares. Putting together an MVP caliber season, Tavares netted 86 points while Okposo was second on the team with...51. Tavares improves anybody who plays alongside him, and scoring (top 5 in the NHL) isn't the issue. Ryan Strome, Anders Lee, Frans Nielson, Nikolay Kulemin, Brock Nelson & co. will do their part.
It's all about whether the Islander defense can stiffen up and counteract the terrifying Alex Ovechkin-led Capital attack. Washington is a balanced squad- in the top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed. Ovechkin is flanked by fellow stay Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, and Troy Brouwer. Islander defenders will have a tough task locking the Caps down 5-on-5, and even more trouble with the top-ranked Capitals powerplay unit. With Hamonic out, expect Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy to have preposterously high ice time numbers. Goalie Braden Holtby has been a workhorse for Washington, with 73(!!) starts this season. He has been stellar throughout, and Washington is hoping that those same Halak-type burnout questions do not manifest themselves.
The Pick: Washington comes in playing much better hockey- that's indisputable. But as the season point totals indicate, these squads are neck and neck. Call it pageantry, call it lunacy...but doesn't the Islanders script for the final season at the Coliseum just beg for a postseason showdown with the Rangers? If both teams take care of business, that matchup will be secured. Few doubt that the Rangers will hold up their end of the bargain...and here's one that believes the underdog Islanders find a way.
Islanders in Seven
#1A Montreal Canadiens (110 points) vs. (WC) Ottawa Senators (99 points)
Season Series: Senators won 3-1
Stanley Cup Odds: Montreal 10/1 (6th best); Ottawa 18/1 (11th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "Who marries someone that they just met?" -Kristoff
The Breakdown: Nobody wanted to play these streaking Senators. Ottawa seemed dead in the water a few weeks ago, only to sizzle off a 21-6 conclusion to the season. It's a strange squad whose leading scorer is a defenseman (Erik Karlsson) and second leading scorer is a rookie (Mark Stone). But they also happen to have a goalie who went 20-1-2 on the season. And that is not a typo. Andrew Hammond is the straw that stirs this drink for Ottawa. But he has no playoff experience, and they guy standing across from him in Montreal's net...
...is likely the MVP of the league this season. Carey Price has gone wire to wire as the best goalie in the league, putting up a transcendent season. 44 wins and a sub-2.00 goals against average is staggering to see. But much depends on the health of leading scorer Max Pacioretti, who suffered a nasty injury earlier in the season.
The Pick: Many folks are all about this upset, but Price will outshine the young Hammond. Ottawa should hold its head very high for making it this far, but
Canadiens in Six
#2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points) vs. #3A Detroit Red Wings (100 points)
Season Series: Lightning won 3-1, with one game needing Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Tampa Bay 12/1 (8th best); Detroit 20/1 (13th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "This is awkward... I'm awkward, you're gorgeous - wait what?" -Anna
The Breakdown: Detroit has been a staple in these playoffs for the last 600 years, but this isn't a classic WIngs squad. Injuries, uncertainties in net, and transitional growing pains have left this a very vulnerable Detroit squad. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk have plenty of experience, but will need plenty of help around.
The Lightning, conversely, look primed for a deep run. Steven Stamkos leads an explosive offense and Ben Bishop has been tremendous between the pipes.
The Pick: Detroit has the storied history, but Tampa's time is now.
Lightning in Five
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. (WC) Winnipeg Jets (99 points)
Season Series: Ducks won all three matchups, but two went to Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Anaheim 9/1 (4th best); Winnipeg 25/1 (16th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "It's time to see what I can do- to test the limits and break through." -Elsa
The Breakdown: Yet again, the Ducks have put together a monster regular season to earn the West's top seed. But in one of the most topsy-turvy stats I've ever seen, Anaheim won 27 more games than they lost in regulation- and yet scored just 10 more goals than they allowed throughout the season. Yes, apparently that's possible...by being very clutch in one-goal games and having very very off bad nights where they got shellacked. Since winning the Cup in 2007, the Ducks have had plenty of playoff disappointments following big regular seasons. Usual suspects Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry lead the offense along with playoff veteran Ryan Kesler, playing in his first season for Anaheim. Frederik Anderson will start in goal for the series, with John Gibson also playing a big role during the regular season. But with an offense that wasn't in the NHL's top 10 in scoring, and a defense that was in the NHL bottom 10 for goals allowed, this is one of the more confusing, pedestrian top seeds we have seen in a while.
You're not going to find many marquis names on Winnipeg (perhaps hulking defenseman Dustin Byfuglien qualifies) but they have a goalie that has played his tail off in closing out the year. Don't ask me how to pronounce Ondrej Pavelec...just know that if he picks up where he left off in finishing the regular season, the Ducks are in deep doodoo. When looking for playoff upsets, nothing is more compelling than the hot goalie.
Elsa's quote applies to both teams for different reasons. Due to their underwhelming stats, folks are seeing the Ducks as ripe for the picking. They need to prove they're not in for another letdown. The Jets, meanwhile, are in their first playoff series since relocating back to Winnipeg in 2011. Expect those fans to be juuuuust a little pumped to cheer on the upset.
The Pick: A very tough series to pick, but Winnipeg just seems of have a bit too many eggs in its goaltender's basket. If Pavelec keeps it going and steals this series away, all power to him and the Jets. But the Ducks are a team of veterans (a reason their success in one-goal games may not be quite as fluky as people think) and are more complete from top to bottom. Winnipeg will win one at home for its deserving fans, but Anaheim closes the book on this one quickly.
Ducks in Five.
#2P Vancouver Canucks (101 points) vs. #3P Calgary Flames (97 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Canucks won coming in OT
Stanley Cup Odds: Vancouver 16/1 (9th best); Calgary 25/1 (16th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote:"I don't know why, but I've always loved the idea of summer...and sun... and all things hot..." -Olaf
The Breakdown: If you take a look at the Flames roster, and then the Kings roster, and then told folks that Calgary beat out LA for a playoff spot...most hockey aficionados may give themselves a mild concussion from so much head-scratching. Nobody's every heard of anybody on the Flames (though Jiri Hudler is nearly a point-per-game forward) and their best overall player Mark Giordano has been out for months with a biceps injury. But Calgary is a balanced team that finds a way to accomplish the most important of tasks: finding the back of the net. They are 6th in the NHL in goals scored, and experienced goalie Jonas Hiller will start the series.
Vancouver has the more explosive-yet-topheavy attack, with the Sedin teams and Radim Vrbata each eclipsing 60 points on the season. The Canucks special teams- which tend to make or break teams this time of year- have been stellar. The power play and penalty kill each rank in the NHL top 10. Goalie Eddie Lack has impressive peripheral numbers, but he lacks any significant playoff experience.
The Pick: See the Frozen quote above. No hockey playoffs are complete without at least one "wait...what?" first round result. Take the Flames. And the sun. And all things hot. Calgary finds a way to out-fun their Canadian brethren.
Flames in Seven.
#1C St. Louis Blues (109 points) vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild (100 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Blues win coming in a shootout
Stanley Cup Odds: Blues 8.5/1 (3rd best); Wild 9/1 (5th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "And you...is there sorcery in you, too? Are you a monster, too?" -Duke
The Breakdown: Whoa, nellie, look at those Stanley Cup odds! A first round matchup consisting of two 100-point teams is always a treat, and this one looks to be a classic. The Blues have once again put together an unbelievable squad, in the NHL's top-5 in goals scored, goals allowed, and power play. Vladamir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen, David Backes, and T.J. Oshie are all a handful to deal with, while Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex Pietrangelo leads what many consider to be the best defense in the sport. It's always scary to thrust a rookie into the hotbed that is the NHL playoffs, but Jake Allen has been tremendous throughout the regular season and will get the nod.
The Wild also boast some big names in Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Ryan Suter...but their most important player was midseason trade acquisition Devan Dubnyk. In just half a season, he complied 27 wins an a sub-1.80 goals against average. Jaw-dropping numbers.
The Pick: The Wild have really come on strong to finish the season, and those lofty Cup odds are no fluke. But they got a real tough first-round draw in this St. Louis squad. As long as Allen doesn't get the willies in his first playoff action, the Blues should squeak by.
Blues in Seven
#2C Nashville Predators (104 points) vs. #3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks lead 3-1, with two games needing OT
Stanley Cup Odds: Predators 12/1 (7th best); Blackhawks 7/1 (2nd best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "You don't have to live in fear...cause for the first time in forever, I will be right here." -Anna
The Breakdown: Poor, poor Nashville...The Predators sat atop the NHL for so much of the regular season and seemingly withstood a midseason injury to franchise goalie Pekka Rinne..only to slip up at the end and lose their final six games. Their penance is a first-round date with the Blackhawks, with superstar Patrick Kane finally returning to Chicago's lineup (inspiring the Frozen quote above.) Rinne can be the best in the world when he's on, but the Predator goalie has struggled mightily to be himself lately. Chicago's Corey Crawford has proven himself to be more than capable in his own right, and the Blackhawks surrounding personnel simply outmatches what Nashville brings to the table. Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, & co. are poised for another deep run.
The Pick: It's hard to show such disrespect to a Nashville team that had such an impressive regular season. But Chicago's ability to stay elite even without their superstar showed how truly scary they will be now that he's back.
Blackhawks in Six.
It's finally, finally here.
Tonight begins the 2015 NHL Playoffs. The season started in October with 30 teams dreaming the ultimate dream of raising the Stanley Cup, and that list has now been whittled down to 16. Included in these 16 are a Rangers team looking to return to the Cup Final after falling short against the Kings last year; as well as an Islanders team looking to write a fairytale ending to its final season at Nassau Coliseum.
These hockey playoffs are the crapshoot of all crapshoots. The upcoming basketball playoffs will also invite 16 teams to the dance...but in reality there are only 4-5 true contenders. In the NHL, seeding is just a number. As the 'Reset' button is pushed on everything from the past 6 months and everybody is now 0-0, it can be a hot goalie, clicking power play, playing on home ice, etc. that makes an underdog team greater than the sum of its parts.
It's why the Bruins and defending-champion Kings were so devastated to lose out on their playoff spots in the final week. These teams weren't playing for a boost in morale & for the right to get blown off the ice by the top seeds in their conference. No. If you're in this tournament, you can authentically win this tournament. Simple as that.
While that part may be simple, picking out who the heck is gonna win this thing is the polar opposite. The puck drops tonight on four of the eight first round series, so let's take a look at what's in store.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. (WC) Pittsburgh Penguins (98 points)
Season Series: Rangers won 3 of 4, Pittsburgh's only win came via shootout
Stanley Cup Odds: New York 5/1 (best); Pittsburgh 16/1 (9th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "I don't have a skull. Or bones..." -Olaf
The Breakdown: Is this finally 'The Year' for the Blueshirts? Last year they came darn close, with marathon playoff series leading to a Cup defeat at the hands of the Kings. But with nearly all the key pieces back for the Rangers and some important pieces also added, things are trending upwards in a big way. The Rangers depth on offense (Rick Nash, Derek Brassard, Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan, Mats Zaccarello) and defense (Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Keith Yandle) are scary enough. And on top of that you have to stare down Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes? These guys are Cup favorites for a reason.
The Penguins have been among the East's elite for the past decade, but injuries have decimated the squad. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are always a risk to steal a game or two, but the Rangers have Pittsburgh outmatched in nearly every element of the game.
The Pick: Unless Lundqvist lays an egg in Game 1 and the "We Want (Cam) Talbot!!" hoopla tears the team apart, the Rangers should dust off the beatup Pens rather quickly.
Rangers in Five
#2M Washington Capitals (101 points) vs. #3M New York Islanders (101 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with three of for games needing Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Washington 18/1 (12th best); New York 20/1 (14th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "Oh Anna... if there was only someone out there who loved you." -Hans
The Breakdown: Ever since the Islanders opened the year winning four straight, it's been a dream season for the Nassau Coliseum's swan song. The Isles even flirting with the top position in the conference for a short period. But it's been a rough finish to the year. Kyle Okposo sustained a midseason eye injury and following his return, did not maintain his torrid pre-injury production. Current injuries to forward Mikhail Grabovski and defenseman Travis Hamonic are also quite concerning. But the biggest worry of all is that goaltender Jaroslav Halak may be showing signs of burnout. The Islanders had some horrific losses down the stretch- which featured blown third period leads and a staggering amount of goals surrendered in the final minute of periods. But despite all the bad, the Islanders made the tournament thanks to the brilliance of franchise player John Tavares. Putting together an MVP caliber season, Tavares netted 86 points while Okposo was second on the team with...51. Tavares improves anybody who plays alongside him, and scoring (top 5 in the NHL) isn't the issue. Ryan Strome, Anders Lee, Frans Nielson, Nikolay Kulemin, Brock Nelson & co. will do their part.
It's all about whether the Islander defense can stiffen up and counteract the terrifying Alex Ovechkin-led Capital attack. Washington is a balanced squad- in the top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed. Ovechkin is flanked by fellow stay Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, and Troy Brouwer. Islander defenders will have a tough task locking the Caps down 5-on-5, and even more trouble with the top-ranked Capitals powerplay unit. With Hamonic out, expect Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy to have preposterously high ice time numbers. Goalie Braden Holtby has been a workhorse for Washington, with 73(!!) starts this season. He has been stellar throughout, and Washington is hoping that those same Halak-type burnout questions do not manifest themselves.
The Pick: Washington comes in playing much better hockey- that's indisputable. But as the season point totals indicate, these squads are neck and neck. Call it pageantry, call it lunacy...but doesn't the Islanders script for the final season at the Coliseum just beg for a postseason showdown with the Rangers? If both teams take care of business, that matchup will be secured. Few doubt that the Rangers will hold up their end of the bargain...and here's one that believes the underdog Islanders find a way.
Islanders in Seven
#1A Montreal Canadiens (110 points) vs. (WC) Ottawa Senators (99 points)
Season Series: Senators won 3-1
Stanley Cup Odds: Montreal 10/1 (6th best); Ottawa 18/1 (11th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "Who marries someone that they just met?" -Kristoff
The Breakdown: Nobody wanted to play these streaking Senators. Ottawa seemed dead in the water a few weeks ago, only to sizzle off a 21-6 conclusion to the season. It's a strange squad whose leading scorer is a defenseman (Erik Karlsson) and second leading scorer is a rookie (Mark Stone). But they also happen to have a goalie who went 20-1-2 on the season. And that is not a typo. Andrew Hammond is the straw that stirs this drink for Ottawa. But he has no playoff experience, and they guy standing across from him in Montreal's net...
...is likely the MVP of the league this season. Carey Price has gone wire to wire as the best goalie in the league, putting up a transcendent season. 44 wins and a sub-2.00 goals against average is staggering to see. But much depends on the health of leading scorer Max Pacioretti, who suffered a nasty injury earlier in the season.
The Pick: Many folks are all about this upset, but Price will outshine the young Hammond. Ottawa should hold its head very high for making it this far, but
Canadiens in Six
#2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points) vs. #3A Detroit Red Wings (100 points)
Season Series: Lightning won 3-1, with one game needing Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Tampa Bay 12/1 (8th best); Detroit 20/1 (13th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "This is awkward... I'm awkward, you're gorgeous - wait what?" -Anna
The Breakdown: Detroit has been a staple in these playoffs for the last 600 years, but this isn't a classic WIngs squad. Injuries, uncertainties in net, and transitional growing pains have left this a very vulnerable Detroit squad. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk have plenty of experience, but will need plenty of help around.
The Lightning, conversely, look primed for a deep run. Steven Stamkos leads an explosive offense and Ben Bishop has been tremendous between the pipes.
The Pick: Detroit has the storied history, but Tampa's time is now.
Lightning in Five
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. (WC) Winnipeg Jets (99 points)
Season Series: Ducks won all three matchups, but two went to Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Anaheim 9/1 (4th best); Winnipeg 25/1 (16th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "It's time to see what I can do- to test the limits and break through." -Elsa
The Breakdown: Yet again, the Ducks have put together a monster regular season to earn the West's top seed. But in one of the most topsy-turvy stats I've ever seen, Anaheim won 27 more games than they lost in regulation- and yet scored just 10 more goals than they allowed throughout the season. Yes, apparently that's possible...by being very clutch in one-goal games and having very very off bad nights where they got shellacked. Since winning the Cup in 2007, the Ducks have had plenty of playoff disappointments following big regular seasons. Usual suspects Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry lead the offense along with playoff veteran Ryan Kesler, playing in his first season for Anaheim. Frederik Anderson will start in goal for the series, with John Gibson also playing a big role during the regular season. But with an offense that wasn't in the NHL's top 10 in scoring, and a defense that was in the NHL bottom 10 for goals allowed, this is one of the more confusing, pedestrian top seeds we have seen in a while.
You're not going to find many marquis names on Winnipeg (perhaps hulking defenseman Dustin Byfuglien qualifies) but they have a goalie that has played his tail off in closing out the year. Don't ask me how to pronounce Ondrej Pavelec...just know that if he picks up where he left off in finishing the regular season, the Ducks are in deep doodoo. When looking for playoff upsets, nothing is more compelling than the hot goalie.
Elsa's quote applies to both teams for different reasons. Due to their underwhelming stats, folks are seeing the Ducks as ripe for the picking. They need to prove they're not in for another letdown. The Jets, meanwhile, are in their first playoff series since relocating back to Winnipeg in 2011. Expect those fans to be juuuuust a little pumped to cheer on the upset.
The Pick: A very tough series to pick, but Winnipeg just seems of have a bit too many eggs in its goaltender's basket. If Pavelec keeps it going and steals this series away, all power to him and the Jets. But the Ducks are a team of veterans (a reason their success in one-goal games may not be quite as fluky as people think) and are more complete from top to bottom. Winnipeg will win one at home for its deserving fans, but Anaheim closes the book on this one quickly.
Ducks in Five.
#2P Vancouver Canucks (101 points) vs. #3P Calgary Flames (97 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Canucks won coming in OT
Stanley Cup Odds: Vancouver 16/1 (9th best); Calgary 25/1 (16th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote:"I don't know why, but I've always loved the idea of summer...and sun... and all things hot..." -Olaf
The Breakdown: If you take a look at the Flames roster, and then the Kings roster, and then told folks that Calgary beat out LA for a playoff spot...most hockey aficionados may give themselves a mild concussion from so much head-scratching. Nobody's every heard of anybody on the Flames (though Jiri Hudler is nearly a point-per-game forward) and their best overall player Mark Giordano has been out for months with a biceps injury. But Calgary is a balanced team that finds a way to accomplish the most important of tasks: finding the back of the net. They are 6th in the NHL in goals scored, and experienced goalie Jonas Hiller will start the series.
Vancouver has the more explosive-yet-topheavy attack, with the Sedin teams and Radim Vrbata each eclipsing 60 points on the season. The Canucks special teams- which tend to make or break teams this time of year- have been stellar. The power play and penalty kill each rank in the NHL top 10. Goalie Eddie Lack has impressive peripheral numbers, but he lacks any significant playoff experience.
The Pick: See the Frozen quote above. No hockey playoffs are complete without at least one "wait...what?" first round result. Take the Flames. And the sun. And all things hot. Calgary finds a way to out-fun their Canadian brethren.
Flames in Seven.
#1C St. Louis Blues (109 points) vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild (100 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Blues win coming in a shootout
Stanley Cup Odds: Blues 8.5/1 (3rd best); Wild 9/1 (5th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "And you...is there sorcery in you, too? Are you a monster, too?" -Duke
The Breakdown: Whoa, nellie, look at those Stanley Cup odds! A first round matchup consisting of two 100-point teams is always a treat, and this one looks to be a classic. The Blues have once again put together an unbelievable squad, in the NHL's top-5 in goals scored, goals allowed, and power play. Vladamir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen, David Backes, and T.J. Oshie are all a handful to deal with, while Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex Pietrangelo leads what many consider to be the best defense in the sport. It's always scary to thrust a rookie into the hotbed that is the NHL playoffs, but Jake Allen has been tremendous throughout the regular season and will get the nod.
The Wild also boast some big names in Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Ryan Suter...but their most important player was midseason trade acquisition Devan Dubnyk. In just half a season, he complied 27 wins an a sub-1.80 goals against average. Jaw-dropping numbers.
The Pick: The Wild have really come on strong to finish the season, and those lofty Cup odds are no fluke. But they got a real tough first-round draw in this St. Louis squad. As long as Allen doesn't get the willies in his first playoff action, the Blues should squeak by.
Blues in Seven
#2C Nashville Predators (104 points) vs. #3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks lead 3-1, with two games needing OT
Stanley Cup Odds: Predators 12/1 (7th best); Blackhawks 7/1 (2nd best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "You don't have to live in fear...cause for the first time in forever, I will be right here." -Anna
The Breakdown: Poor, poor Nashville...The Predators sat atop the NHL for so much of the regular season and seemingly withstood a midseason injury to franchise goalie Pekka Rinne..only to slip up at the end and lose their final six games. Their penance is a first-round date with the Blackhawks, with superstar Patrick Kane finally returning to Chicago's lineup (inspiring the Frozen quote above.) Rinne can be the best in the world when he's on, but the Predator goalie has struggled mightily to be himself lately. Chicago's Corey Crawford has proven himself to be more than capable in his own right, and the Blackhawks surrounding personnel simply outmatches what Nashville brings to the table. Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, & co. are poised for another deep run.
The Pick: It's hard to show such disrespect to a Nashville team that had such an impressive regular season. But Chicago's ability to stay elite even without their superstar showed how truly scary they will be now that he's back.
Blackhawks in Six.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Super Bowl XLIX Pick-off
Welp... it all comes down to tonight. After sitting through an interminable two weeks of Deflategate, Patriots fans urging everyone that "there's nothing to see here" regarding Deflategate, Marshawn Lynch not talking, Richard Sherman baby mama drama, and the 'Firework v. Roar' Katy Perry halftime opening song debate....Super Bowl Sunday is finally here! Not much more of a preamble is needed- we've already waited long enough, plus I gotta keep an eye on the barbecue to make sure the sausages don't char. Without further adieu!
SUPER BOWL XLIX
No. 1 New England Patriots (14-4) vs. No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: Pick'em!
The Lowdown: It's the matchup that everyone's been waiting to see, despite the noteworthy unlike-ability of both these squads. Nobody outside of New England enjoys seeing the Patriots win due to their checkered past (not even going into it...enough is enough) and overall frosty demeanor. Seattle, in their own right, followed their miracle victory last week by crying as if they were middle-aged mothers who just found out they were in attendance at an Oprah's "Favorite Things" taping.
These two top seeds certainly their bumps on the way to the Big Game. The Pats got all they could handle from the Ravens in the Divisional Round, falling behind by 14 points on two different occasions. But unlikely as that eventual victory was, the Seahawks totally out-did them with a complete Houdini act against Green Bay in the NFC Championship. There came a point in the fourth quarter where about two dozen things had to break right for Seattle to win. And just like dominos, each one came through.
But then again, there's a reason these two were the top seeds in their conference, and a reason both are the final teams standing. New England has Tom Brady orchestrating a potent pass offense, with some serious help from tight end Rob Gronkowski. A great offense is nothing new for the Pats- but their revamped defense has been a welcomed change for their squad. Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Devin McCourty...all the sudden it's not so easy to chuck the ball on them anymore.
Well, Seattle doesn't care very much about tossing the ball anyway. Running back Marshawn Lynch- as knuckle-headed as he ay be from time to time- is the force behind everything the Seahawks do on offense. He is a punishing runner, capable receiver, and someone who is a nightmare to tackle for four straight quarters. Quarterback Russell Wilson works in the pass and runs of his own to complete the offense. But much like last season's historic unit, Seattle's identity is in its defense. The same defense that refused to let the NFC Championship get out of control when Wilson threw interception after interception early in the game. The same defense that terrified Peyton Manning and the Broncos straight out of the building in last year's Super Bowl. Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Michael Bennett...there are stars every place you look.
So with the two potent defenses taking the field, many folks are going south on the 47.5 over/under line. The key to the game will be Lynch's ability to gash New England's defensive front vs. Brady's ability to maneuver his way around Seattle's suffocating secondary.
The Pick: Very little drama in this one. I thought the Colts had a chance to take down New England, and maybe they would have if that Pats hadn't cheated (one last trolling job to take into the long offseason.) Seattle played some of the worst football they were capable of ever playing two weeks ago, yet still found a way. Though they won't quite have their vicious homefield advantage in the Super Bowl, early reports are that the Seahawks:Patriots fan ratio is tilted heavy towards the west coasters. I saw what this defense did in eviscerating Denver last year, and I saw them somehow keep the Seahawks in a game from hell two weeks ago. New England is a great team...and Seattle is just an itty bitty bit better. The last time the Patriots played a Super Bowl in Arizona,I got definitive proof there is indeed an all-loving God looking over the universe things didn't go as planned. Same story, new chapter. Look on the bright side, Patriots fans....at least it's not Eli Manning part 3.0
Seahawks 16, Patriots 10
SUPER BOWL XLIX
No. 1 New England Patriots (14-4) vs. No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: Pick'em!
The Lowdown: It's the matchup that everyone's been waiting to see, despite the noteworthy unlike-ability of both these squads. Nobody outside of New England enjoys seeing the Patriots win due to their checkered past (not even going into it...enough is enough) and overall frosty demeanor. Seattle, in their own right, followed their miracle victory last week by crying as if they were middle-aged mothers who just found out they were in attendance at an Oprah's "Favorite Things" taping.
These two top seeds certainly their bumps on the way to the Big Game. The Pats got all they could handle from the Ravens in the Divisional Round, falling behind by 14 points on two different occasions. But unlikely as that eventual victory was, the Seahawks totally out-did them with a complete Houdini act against Green Bay in the NFC Championship. There came a point in the fourth quarter where about two dozen things had to break right for Seattle to win. And just like dominos, each one came through.
But then again, there's a reason these two were the top seeds in their conference, and a reason both are the final teams standing. New England has Tom Brady orchestrating a potent pass offense, with some serious help from tight end Rob Gronkowski. A great offense is nothing new for the Pats- but their revamped defense has been a welcomed change for their squad. Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Devin McCourty...all the sudden it's not so easy to chuck the ball on them anymore.
Well, Seattle doesn't care very much about tossing the ball anyway. Running back Marshawn Lynch- as knuckle-headed as he ay be from time to time- is the force behind everything the Seahawks do on offense. He is a punishing runner, capable receiver, and someone who is a nightmare to tackle for four straight quarters. Quarterback Russell Wilson works in the pass and runs of his own to complete the offense. But much like last season's historic unit, Seattle's identity is in its defense. The same defense that refused to let the NFC Championship get out of control when Wilson threw interception after interception early in the game. The same defense that terrified Peyton Manning and the Broncos straight out of the building in last year's Super Bowl. Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Michael Bennett...there are stars every place you look.
So with the two potent defenses taking the field, many folks are going south on the 47.5 over/under line. The key to the game will be Lynch's ability to gash New England's defensive front vs. Brady's ability to maneuver his way around Seattle's suffocating secondary.
The Pick: Very little drama in this one. I thought the Colts had a chance to take down New England, and maybe they would have if that Pats hadn't cheated (one last trolling job to take into the long offseason.) Seattle played some of the worst football they were capable of ever playing two weeks ago, yet still found a way. Though they won't quite have their vicious homefield advantage in the Super Bowl, early reports are that the Seahawks:Patriots fan ratio is tilted heavy towards the west coasters. I saw what this defense did in eviscerating Denver last year, and I saw them somehow keep the Seahawks in a game from hell two weeks ago. New England is a great team...and Seattle is just an itty bitty bit better. The last time the Patriots played a Super Bowl in Arizona,
Seahawks 16, Patriots 10
Sunday, January 18, 2015
Conference Title Pickoff: Who's Desert-Bound?
Unbelievable as it is, there are just three games remaining in this NFL season (3.5 games if you count the Pro Bowl.) Four teams are left standing, and each will put up their dukes this evening and have it out. Unsurprisingly, both top seeds are sizable favorites in their home stadiums. But both of today's underdogs have superstar quarterbacks, one of whom has won a Super Bowl in his own right.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 2 Green Bay Packers (13-4) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Kickoff: 3pm
The Line: Seattle by 8
The Lowdown: These two squads return to the scene of September 4, 2014's NFL season opener. Following that 36-16 beatdown by Seattle, talks of a repeat Seahawks championship season got a'brewin. Those talks simmered a bit as Seattle stumbled to lose 3 of its next 5 games, but the Hawks regained their mojo in dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage. The results? Seattle has won 10 of its last 11, including a 31-17 thumping of Carolina in last week's divisional round. Though that game was more tightly contested than the final score would indicate, therein lies the beauty of how Seattle is so effective. Things don't have to go perfectly nor pretty for the Hawks to find a way. Playing in front of their home crowd, they chip away and chip away, patiently rushing the ball with Marshawn Lynch and wearing out their opponent. Though he doesn't get the superstar accolades of his three quarterback counterparts this weekend, Russell Wilson brutalized the Panthers with third down dagger after third down dagger last week. And when push comes to shove, it's nearly impossible to go 60 minutes against this defense without a killer mistake (i.e. Kam Chancellor's game-sealing interception return touchdown of Cam Newton last week.) Seattle is confident as can be, and as mentioned, simply outclassed Green Bay earlier this season.
The Pack, meanwhile, come in with folks still talking about their game against Dallas and Dez Bryant's catch/no-catch debate. Though everyone has their own opinion on that play, it's tough to say Rodgers wouldn't have found a way to pull out that victory. He was near flawless in the second half after a rocky start. Questions still linger about his injured calf, which still isn't 100% and is certainly playing a factor in the lofty 8 point spread of this matchup. With MVP favorite Rodgers firing on all cylinders, this line would probably be cut in half. But all the uncertainty surrounding his health affects everything the Packers try to do on offense. Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb are worthy offensive adversaries to take of Seattle's Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, & co. But if the centerpiece isn't there with a full canvas of his abilities, Green Bay will be in a real tough spot.
The Pick: Seattle really has this professional football stuff all figured out. Their rushing offense pounds opponents into submission, their defense pounds opponents into submission, and their quarterback is Mr. Cool in taking whatever the defense gives him and rolling along. Granted, their homefield advantage is over-discussed, but it also can't be denied. Though 8 points seems like quite a bit, it seems everytime I take that mindset into a game, the favorite proves why everyone bets so confidently in them. Unless Wilson uncharacteristically takes a mindset of "forget Brady, Luck, and Rodgers...I'LL SHOW YOU who the superstar quarterback is!" resulting in forcing passes and suffering turnovers, Seattle will do what has made it so successful two years running. The "repeat" talk got going in September. And it will reach a fever pitch tonight.
Seahawks 34, Packers 21
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at No. 1 New England Patriots (13-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: New England by 6.5
The Lowdown: Let this blog by the millionth place where you'll see the pun that this game is All About Luck. The Colts young quarterback has brought his team to the AFC Championship with staggeringly little help surrounding him. Indy is utterly fruitless in trying to run the football, they struggle mightily to stop the run, and their defensive secondary is marginal thanks to star corner Vontae Davis. But besides that, it's Andrew throwing left, Andrew throwing tight, Andrew throwing middle, and Andrew throwing deep. Playing in the weak AFC South, the Colts have feasted on a rather fluffy schedule this season in getting to the playoffs. But now that they're here? They've conquered every obstacle thrown their way. Yes, the Bengals were injured and stinky in round one- and Denver played one of the most confusingly inept games in the history of football last week- resulting in the firing of Broncos coach John Fox and possible retirement talk for Peyton Manning. But none of that is of the Colts' concern.
What is of their concern, however, is that Luck has gotten whipped by the Patriots in each of his career matchups against them. Last year's playoffs...this year's regular season...things have gotten ugly. Indianapolis has Andrew, and the Patriots have shown to have a quarterback and a whole lot more.
Speaking of New England, the Pats nearly ran into a buzzsaw last week against Baltimore. The Ravens came out quick and never relented, building two different 14 point leads in the game. But the Patriots never panicked, chipped away any chance they got, and at the end of the day they squeezed out the victory. It seemed like a true coin flip as to who the better team was, but now the question becomes whether Indy is better than that Ravens team. It's a tough call. But based on the Patriots' rampant success against the Colts during the Luck era, clearly New England enjoys the matchups that Indy has presented them.
The Pick: Despite knowing that Baltimore would be a live underdog, I shared my thoughts last week that this did not seem like a "one-and-done" Patriots team this time around. Revis and Browner on defense, Gronkowski on offense, etc. On the flip side of things, does this year's New England squad have the moxy of a Super Bowl bound team? Well, they sure seem more qualified than this Colts team. The Patriots have a better all-around offense, comparable all-around defense, and decided edges in coaching and homefield. But ya know what? The Broncos enjoyed all those edges against this Colts team last week. Expect a close game where Indy covers the spread. And when in doubt as to who will win, just remember that one team has Andrew Luck playing quarterback and one team does not have Andrew Luck playing quarterback. Somehow, someway:
Colts 27, Patriots 24
Thanks for reading. Enjoy the games!
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 2 Green Bay Packers (13-4) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Kickoff: 3pm
The Line: Seattle by 8
The Lowdown: These two squads return to the scene of September 4, 2014's NFL season opener. Following that 36-16 beatdown by Seattle, talks of a repeat Seahawks championship season got a'brewin. Those talks simmered a bit as Seattle stumbled to lose 3 of its next 5 games, but the Hawks regained their mojo in dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage. The results? Seattle has won 10 of its last 11, including a 31-17 thumping of Carolina in last week's divisional round. Though that game was more tightly contested than the final score would indicate, therein lies the beauty of how Seattle is so effective. Things don't have to go perfectly nor pretty for the Hawks to find a way. Playing in front of their home crowd, they chip away and chip away, patiently rushing the ball with Marshawn Lynch and wearing out their opponent. Though he doesn't get the superstar accolades of his three quarterback counterparts this weekend, Russell Wilson brutalized the Panthers with third down dagger after third down dagger last week. And when push comes to shove, it's nearly impossible to go 60 minutes against this defense without a killer mistake (i.e. Kam Chancellor's game-sealing interception return touchdown of Cam Newton last week.) Seattle is confident as can be, and as mentioned, simply outclassed Green Bay earlier this season.
The Pack, meanwhile, come in with folks still talking about their game against Dallas and Dez Bryant's catch/no-catch debate. Though everyone has their own opinion on that play, it's tough to say Rodgers wouldn't have found a way to pull out that victory. He was near flawless in the second half after a rocky start. Questions still linger about his injured calf, which still isn't 100% and is certainly playing a factor in the lofty 8 point spread of this matchup. With MVP favorite Rodgers firing on all cylinders, this line would probably be cut in half. But all the uncertainty surrounding his health affects everything the Packers try to do on offense. Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb are worthy offensive adversaries to take of Seattle's Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, & co. But if the centerpiece isn't there with a full canvas of his abilities, Green Bay will be in a real tough spot.
The Pick: Seattle really has this professional football stuff all figured out. Their rushing offense pounds opponents into submission, their defense pounds opponents into submission, and their quarterback is Mr. Cool in taking whatever the defense gives him and rolling along. Granted, their homefield advantage is over-discussed, but it also can't be denied. Though 8 points seems like quite a bit, it seems everytime I take that mindset into a game, the favorite proves why everyone bets so confidently in them. Unless Wilson uncharacteristically takes a mindset of "forget Brady, Luck, and Rodgers...I'LL SHOW YOU who the superstar quarterback is!" resulting in forcing passes and suffering turnovers, Seattle will do what has made it so successful two years running. The "repeat" talk got going in September. And it will reach a fever pitch tonight.
Seahawks 34, Packers 21
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at No. 1 New England Patriots (13-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: New England by 6.5
The Lowdown: Let this blog by the millionth place where you'll see the pun that this game is All About Luck. The Colts young quarterback has brought his team to the AFC Championship with staggeringly little help surrounding him. Indy is utterly fruitless in trying to run the football, they struggle mightily to stop the run, and their defensive secondary is marginal thanks to star corner Vontae Davis. But besides that, it's Andrew throwing left, Andrew throwing tight, Andrew throwing middle, and Andrew throwing deep. Playing in the weak AFC South, the Colts have feasted on a rather fluffy schedule this season in getting to the playoffs. But now that they're here? They've conquered every obstacle thrown their way. Yes, the Bengals were injured and stinky in round one- and Denver played one of the most confusingly inept games in the history of football last week- resulting in the firing of Broncos coach John Fox and possible retirement talk for Peyton Manning. But none of that is of the Colts' concern.
What is of their concern, however, is that Luck has gotten whipped by the Patriots in each of his career matchups against them. Last year's playoffs...this year's regular season...things have gotten ugly. Indianapolis has Andrew, and the Patriots have shown to have a quarterback and a whole lot more.
Speaking of New England, the Pats nearly ran into a buzzsaw last week against Baltimore. The Ravens came out quick and never relented, building two different 14 point leads in the game. But the Patriots never panicked, chipped away any chance they got, and at the end of the day they squeezed out the victory. It seemed like a true coin flip as to who the better team was, but now the question becomes whether Indy is better than that Ravens team. It's a tough call. But based on the Patriots' rampant success against the Colts during the Luck era, clearly New England enjoys the matchups that Indy has presented them.
The Pick: Despite knowing that Baltimore would be a live underdog, I shared my thoughts last week that this did not seem like a "one-and-done" Patriots team this time around. Revis and Browner on defense, Gronkowski on offense, etc. On the flip side of things, does this year's New England squad have the moxy of a Super Bowl bound team? Well, they sure seem more qualified than this Colts team. The Patriots have a better all-around offense, comparable all-around defense, and decided edges in coaching and homefield. But ya know what? The Broncos enjoyed all those edges against this Colts team last week. Expect a close game where Indy covers the spread. And when in doubt as to who will win, just remember that one team has Andrew Luck playing quarterback and one team does not have Andrew Luck playing quarterback. Somehow, someway:
Colts 27, Patriots 24
Thanks for reading. Enjoy the games!
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