After quite a few years on NYSportBlog.com, that site seems to have been taken by the government and I cannot get it back. So after a long 3+ year departure, I'm proud to declare:
creillysports.blogspot.com. So much history. So much grandeur. And at least for the foreseeable future, we're BACK.
September has arrived, which means football is on the horizon. So just like a few other billion blowhards across the country, better get some 2014 NFL season picks out there! Division-by-division projected results, with some extra coverage given to the hometown NY squads (hopefully their play this season warrants it?)
In any case, 2014 will be a redemption year. I can't link to last year's preview- because the site's been kidnapped as noted above. But my proposed Super Bowl was Houston vs. Atlanta. Combined record for those two teams last year: 6-26. No joke.
So hopefully that gaffe is just a 'glancing blow' to my credibility rather than a killshot. Time will tell. And it's time to get goin'.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2013 record: 10-6
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 10-6, NFC East Champions
Summary: The Eagles pulled the worst-to-first trick last season, thanks to new head coach Chip Kelly bringing his fast-paced offense to the NFL. Sure enough, Philly put up the 2nd most points in the NFC last season. The defense is not quite as world-burning, but despite the surprising ousting of receiver DeSean Jackson, Philly is still comfortably the cast of what projects to again be another weak East division.
2. Washington Redskins
2013 record: 3-13
Trending: Upward
2014 projection: 8-8, miss playoffs
Summary: While Philly is the safe pick to win this division, how the next three teams finish is pretty much a crapshoot. Contrary to the Eagles, Washington did the more unpleasant first-to-worst turnaround last season. While he was the savior as a rookie, Robert Griffin III was a disaster both physically and performance-ly in his 2013 sophomore campaign. The aforementioned Jackson landed in D.C. after leaving the Eagles, and forms a great receiver duo with Pierre Garcon. Griffin has the weapons to bounce-back, but it will be an up-and-down season.
3. Dallas Cowboys
2013 record: 8-8
Trending: (forever) Neutral
2014 projection: 8-8, miss playoffs
Summary: In an NFL predicated on constant change and parity, the Cowboys have stubbornly gone 8-8 in each of the past 3 seasons, maddening their fans in the process. Tony Romo still has his demons when big games are on the line, and he will be asked to do more than ever this season- because the Cowboys defense will be amongst the very worst in the league. Romo and Dez Bryant will light up fantasy scores every week trying to keep up, but it's going to be tough week after week.
4. New York Giants
2013 record: 7-9
Trending: Downward
2014 projection: 6-10, miss playoffs
Summary: Please, no riots in the tri-state area. A very controversial projection for one of our hometown teams, I know. The Giants have undergone an enormous transition this offseason, in both personnel and offensive philosophy. Any fan that has watched the preseason execution on offense has come away with a whole lot of worry. After the worst season of his career (27 interceptions), Eli Manning has looked uncomfortable trying to learn all the new jibber-jabber. He'll still have weapons Victor Cruz and Reuben Randle on the outside, but the offensive line and tight end positions are very, very thin for these Giants. Throw in the sadly forced retirement of youngster running back David Wilson, and there's just a bad energy that seems to be going on.
But one thing Big Blue has going for it is a very stingy secondary on defense. Now more than ever, the NFL is a passing league. And these guys can cover. If Jason Pierre-Paul can jump back to his superstar form on the line, he can wreck games on his own. I'd be surprised if the Giants indeed finished with only six wins, but unless Eli and the offense have pulled the wool over everybody's eyes, this new offense looks like it will have some serious bumps along the way. New York will feel pressure early in the season not to repeat history- as the Giants started a ghastly 0-6 last season before finishing strong.
NFC North
1. Chicago Bears
2013 record: 8-8
Trending: Upward
2014 projection: 11-5, NFC North Champions
Summary: Yes, this prediction was made before Green Bay got toasted by Seattle this past Thursday. Many foresee the Packers coming out on top in this division, but I'm liking these frisky Bears. Quarterback Jay Cutler struggled to stay healthy last season, but he is back and has all kinds of firepower surrounding him. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett are all elite in their respective positions, and Chicago is sound on both sides of the line. The defense won't live up to its longstanding historic reputation, but the Bears will be able to score with anybody- Green Bay included- and that offense will power Chicago to its first division title since 2010.
2. Green Bay Packers
2013 record: 8-7-1
Trending: Upward
2014 projection: 10-6, Wild Card team
Summary: Yikes, we all nearly forgot that an 8-7-1 record was enough to win the NFC North last season for Green Bay. In fairness to the Packers, their all-world quarterback Aaron Rodgers was unhealthy for giant chunks of last season. Fully healthy, he'll be worth a handful of wins on his own. Also missing time last season was star receiver Randall Cobb, who joins Jordy Nelson to create quite a tandem for Rodgers. Just like last season, Green Bay and Chicago are neck-and-neck in talent, and Green Bay his big name players like Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers on the defense. The Packers will be playoff bound.
3. Minnesota Vikings
2013 record: 5-10-1
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 7-9, miss playoffs
Summary: I like these Vikes! With Cutler, Rodgers, and Detroit's Matthew Stafford all prolific chuckers of the football, many are finding it hard to believe in Minnesota's ability to keep up. While Matt Cassel may not be an elite quarterback (or even a particularly good one), rookie Teddy Bridgewater is waiting in the wings, Cordarrelle Patterson will have a breakout year at receiver, and running back Adrian Peterson is still in his prime. Opponents will also find it strange visiting Minnesota and not playing in their dome- the Vikings will be temporary residents of the University of Minnesota's outdoor stadium as their new digs are being built. Freezing outdoor Minnesota temps come December? Sneaky late-season run for the Vikings! Their record will be respectable.
4. Detroit Lions
2013 record: 7-9
Trending: Downward
2014 projection: 5-11, miss playoffs
Summary: A tough projection personally, as I have always rooted for Detroit when all things are even. But while Stafford's throwing to Calvin Johnson and the no-rules rampage style of play Ndamukong Suh and the defense provides is fun to watch, I think the league has caught up. Even maniac coach Jim Schwartz has come and gone. Detroit has the feel of a team where if things start well, then its on. But if things get tough, they haven't displayed the ability to rise up and overcome. Needless to say, the schedule looks rough and the Lions look to have a quiet season on the horizon.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2013 record: 11-5
Trending: Upward
2014 projection: 10-6, NFC South Champions
Summary: The Saints just keep ticking. Quarterback Drew Brees continues to get the absolute best out of the pass catchers around him, and tight end Jimmy Graham has a historic 2013 season. Seattle has taken the crown as "Best Homefield Advantage in the NFL" - and justifiably so- but nobody ever wins in New Orleans' dome either. In what has become an annual storyline in the midseason, "Seattle vs. New Orleans homefield advantage battle" will rear its head yet again. The South looks uncharacteristically weak this season, and the Saints should reign comfortably.
2. Carolina Panthers
2013 record: 12-4
Trending: Downward
2014 projection: 7-9, miss playoffs
Summary: The most fun team of 2013 has gotten all kinds of hate this offseason. Gone are stalwart Steve Smith and all the other noteworthy receivers of last year, replaced by a less impressive bunch. Star quarterback Cam Newton is back and should be entering his prime years, but questions about his lack of offensive stars and also his health continue to linger. The defense, led by Luke Kuechly, should again be good, but not quite the destructive bunch that turned the tide of so many games last season. I think the Panthers will compete better than most people are giving them credit for, but I don't see another magical playoff run.
3. Atlanta Falcons
2013 record: 4-12
Trending: Upward
2014 projection: 6-10, miss playoffs
Summary: This is admittedly a rough projection for the talented Falcons, but I'm still scarred by that doom-fated Super Bowl prediction from last season. If Matt Ryan bounces back and plays to his potential, Atlanta can easily throw its hat in the ring for a Wild Card spot. But receiver Roddy White and running back Steven Jackson are another year older, and must stay healthy for the entire season. Along with superstar Julio Jones, the Falcons have bigtime playmakers. Which is good, because its defense certainly won't be mistaken for Seattle's anytime soon.
4. Tampa Bay Bucs
2013 record: 4-12
Trending: Upward
2014 projection: 6-10, miss playoffs
Summary: Well, SOMEBODY's gotta finish last, right? If Carolina has gotten all the negative vibes this offseason, it seems all the positive vibes have migrated to Tampa. New coach Lovie Smith is respected across the entire league, and new quarterback Josh McCown played tremendously when forced into duty last year in Chicago. Already projected as a major sleeper to make a playoff run, I see Tampa as improved yet losing some close, painful games within the division. They will be a tough out every single game, but think they will need one year to adjust to Lovie before making a big leap next season.
NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks
2013 record: 13-3, Super Bowl Champs
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 13-3, NFC West Champions
Summary: You know all about it, folks. Seattle throttled Denver in the Super Bowl last season, and have lost very little talent nor- seemingly- desire since then. Repeat championships in the NFL is as tough as it gets, but the Hawks have the ingredients. Russell Wilson gains more experience every game, Marshawn Lynch is still a monster at running back, a healthy Percy Harvin showed Thursday that he is a nightmare to play against, and Seattle has far and away the best defense and homefield advantage in the sport. Any questions?
2. Arizona Cardinals
2013 record: 10-6
Trending: Upward
2014 projection: 9-7, Wild Card team
Summary: Commonly referred to as the "Best team to not make the playoffs" in 2013, I think the Cards get over the hump this season. As tough as the division was last season, it's remarkable Arizona kept up to the tune of a 10-6 record. An up-and-coming defense keyed the Cards' success last season, and that same defense has gotten some cold-water dumped on it during this preseason. But I still see playmakers on that side of the ball, while quarterback Carson Palmer, runner Andre Ellington, and receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd all have ability on offense. I'm not talking Super Bowl for these guys...but 9-7 will be enough for the playoffs.
3. San Francisco 49ers
2013 record: 12-4
Trending: Downward
2014 projection: 8-8, miss playoffs
Summary: A playoff stalwart since Jim Harbaugh took over as coach in 2011, it was a wacky offseason for the Niners. None of it was pleasant. There was a bizarre rumor that Harbaugh may be traded (really) to Cleveland, the once-dominant defense continues to either gain more mileage or lose players to free agency/legal problems. Has the window rapidly closed in San Francisco? Probably not completely. But there's not a great aura surrounding them. Colin Kaepernick may be polarizing, but's he's got a whole world of talent. Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis are impressive weapons themselves. But in a perennially tough division, it looks to be a rare down year by the bay.
4. St. Louis Rams
2013 record: 7-9
Trending: Downward
2014 projection: 4-12, miss playoffs
Summary: The Rams certainly had potential as a sneaky-frisky team this season, but caught a terrible break when quarterback Sam Bradford went down for the season. The Rams' defense is amongst the league's best, and coach Jeff Fisher sure knows what he's doing...but they're starting Shaun Hill at quarterback. Every week. In this division. Just way too much to ask.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots
2013 record: 12-4
Trending: Upward
2014 projection: 12-4, AFC East Champions
Summary: Pretty much a carbon copy of the Saints summary above. The Pats have a great quarterback and are extremely good at home. Even with a bevy of defensive injuries last season, New England had no problems making a postseason run. They get all defenders back- as well as Darrelle Revis in the secondary. Throw in a supposed (and long-awaited) healthy year from Rob Gronkowski...and it's very tough to envision anybody but the Pats on top in this division.
2. New York Jets
2013 record: 8-8
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 9-7, miss playoffs
Summary: Nobody knows what to expect. Give anybody a few minutes, and they could make a compelling argument for the Jets to be 5-11 (terrible cornerback situation, Geno Smith's unpredictability, still lack offensive playmakers) or be 10-6 (elite defensive front, team went 8-8 and made improvements on offense, (again) Geno Smith's unpredictability.
The defensive backs are a serious issue. Since the Rex Ryan era began, Jets fans have been spoiled with some top-notch corners (Revis, Antonio Cromartie, etc.) It will be a drastic and humbling disappointment for fans to see "how the other half" lives in terms of trying to survive the pass-happy NFL with incapable defensive backs.
I'm a believer in the offensive upgrades (running back Chris Johnson, receiver Eric Decker) though I admit the Michael Vick situation has been a little strange in his outright acceptance to be the backup. But though I subscribe that overall the talent is better on this team than the one that went 8-8 last season. But playoffs? I think a particularly brutal schedule will keep that from happening. After opening with a (seemingly- be careful) cupcake game against Oakland at home, the Jets play a consecutive stretch against Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, and New England.
WHAAAAAAAAAT??
Granted, things get way more cozy in the second half of the season. But will the hole already be too deep. The Jets play 10 games before their bye week. If they can scrape by at 5-5 until that point, there can be a serious postseason run in play. But with the defensive back turmoil facing that hellacious early season slate of opponents, things may just be too tough.
3. Miami Dolphins
2013 record: 8-8
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 7-9, miss playoffs
Summary: Miami's fullblown bullying scandal torpedo'd its season in 2013, and many folks foresee a bigtime turnaround for the 'Phins. Like nearly every NFL team, this one will come down to quarterback play. Ryan Tannehill has proved himself as capable, but can he make the jump and propel Miami to the playoffs? He has decent weapons around him like Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline, but Miami's offensive line will have to prove its turned the corner, because Tannehill got blasted far too many times last season. Divisional games against the Jets and Bills will make or break Miami's playoff chances.
4. Buffalo Bills
2013 record: 6-10
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 6-10, miss playoffs
Summary: Typically not a very exciting bunch, Buffalo sure made a splash on draft day when it traded up to grab receiver Sammy Watkins. Watkins has superstar potential, and running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson continue to be effective in their roles. Though sneaky good last season, the Bills defense lost top playmakers Jairus Byrd in free agency and Kiko Alonso to injury. And the question lingers as to whether quarterback EJ Manuel is any good. This blog's official stance: No.
AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2013 record: 11-5
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 11-5, AFC North Champions
Summary: It hasn't been a quiet offseason in Cincy, particularly for its quarterback. Andy Dalton has enjoyed plenty of success during his entire regular season career, only to go all Ryan Lead come playoff time. The uproar came when the Bengals inked Dalton to a monster contract this offseason, so it's time to put up or shut up when it comes to the playoffs. But there's enough talent on this Bengals squad to make sure he gets the chance. AJ Green and Gio Bernard are both electrifying at their positions, and an already capable defense gets superstan Geno Atkins back from injury. I'm lukewarm on the rest of this division, and think the Bengals will win it with room to spare.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
2013 record: 8-8
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 8-8, miss playoffs
Summary: I don't know what word to use describing this team. Is 'flaccid' offensive? I hope not. The're solid yet unspectacular on offense, the defense won't live up to its reputation...they're a team that you're not scared of and yet don't want to play. The best thing Pittsburgh has going for it is the long-standing coach-qb combo of Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger. You can't put a value on that. They'll be in playoff contention- just like always- but don't see them quite getting there. Just too flaccid.
3. Baltimore Ravens
2013 record: 8-8
Trending: Downward
2014 projection: 7-9, miss playoffs
Summary: The Ravens and Steelers always seem to be joined at the hip, and that also applies to this preview. This defense isn't the vaunted unit of years past, and quarterback Joe Flacco looks to regain his Super Bowl hero form instead of...whatever form that was in 2013. Steve Smith can be a sneaky-good acquisition for the offense, but the "bad vibes" hunch applies bigtime here following the whole Ray Rice fiasco. Baltimore will hang around just like Pittsburgh, but also ultimately fall short.
4. Cleveland Browns
2013 record: 4-12
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 4-12, miss playoffs
Summary: Just an insane offseason. Cleveland lost its best player and perhaps the best receiver on the planet in Josh Gordon, suspended seemingly for the entire season for substance abuse. The Browns drafted Johnny Manziel to be its savor, only to have a bumbling situation whether to start Johnny Football or incumbent Brian Hoyer out of the gate. With Gordon gone, neither quarterback has much to work with whatsoever. Cleveland's defense, however, certainly gives it hope to at least be competitive. Joe Haden & co. won't make life easy for opposing offenses. And if Johnny Football is given the reins and provides some magic, a .500 record may not be out of the question.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans
2013 record: 2-14
Trending: Upwards
2014 projection: 11-5, AFC South Champions
Summary: Admittedly, it's been a predictable bunch of playoff teams prognosticated so far. So I'll hitch my crazy-horse to Houston. Yes, the last time Houston won a game that counted was September 15 2013...before losing 14 straight on its way to football's worst record. But it was a ridiculous season as a whole. Quarterback Matt Schaub fell apart, running back Arian Foster got hurt, and things just spiraled. Ryan Fitzpatrick is no Joe Montana, but he's never really totally sucked...and now gets to chuck it to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. If Foster comes back strong and JJ Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Brian Cushing lead a defensive revival, new coach Bill O'Brien and the Texans absolutely have the ingredients to play January football.
2. Indianapolis Colts
2013 record: 11-5
Trending: Downward
2014 projection: 9-7, Wild Card team
Summary: Andrew Luck is a terrifying monster at quarterback- please consult last year's playoff game against Kansas City for reference. But one of these years, the Colts need to catch some bad breaks. Even in a projected 'down' season, I still see Indy in the playoffs because they'll get to beat up on divisional weak links Tennessee and Jacksonville. Luck will continue to grow as a superstar, and has some nice toys in receivers T.Y. Hilton, Hakeem Nicks, and ageless Reggie Wayne. But the defense will let down on more than one occasion, and playing that tough first place schedule (starting with Denver in Week 1) will have Indy settling for a Wild Card.
3. Tennessee Titans
2013 record: 7-9
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 7-9, miss playoffs
Summary: The 7-9 projection may even be a little generous for Tennessee. They are middle of the pack both offensively and defensively, and are banking for quarterback Jake Locker to make a significant leap forward in 2014. I'm actually a Locker believer, but even with solid play from him as well as receivers Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, the Titans won't quite be in the playoff mix for at least another season.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2013 record: 4-12
Trending: Downward
2014 projection: 3-13, miss playoffs
Summary: These guys irreparably stink.
AFC West
1. Denver Broncos
2013 record: 13-3, Lost Super Bowl
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 14-2, AFC West Champions
Summary: A very lofty projection, but now I think Peyton Manning is angry combined with embarrassed combined with the realization that he can't do this much longer. I don't think those three elixirs have been combined yet, even in his record setting 2013 season. The schedule is tough with Indy, New England, Seattle, and two Charger games...but the Broncos won't take any chances in going all-out for homefield, and I see DeMarcus Ware, Von Miller, and Aqib Talib keeping up with the offense's huge production. They are the clear frontrunner in the AFC.
2. San Diego Chargers
2013 record: 9-7
Trending: Upward
2014 projection: 10-6, Wild Card team
Summary: Another team getting a whole lot of buzz as a deep-run playoff crasher. I'm buying in. Philip Rivers was crazy good last season, and Keenan Allen is a superstar receiver with another year under his belt. Its defense boats playmakers Melvin Ingram, Dwight Freeney, Manti Teo and Brandon Flowers, and the Chargers will enjoy the similar luxury as Indy, trouncing underwhelming division foes Kansas City and Oakland. It will be enough for a consecutive postseason berth.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
2013 record: 11-5
Trending: Downward
2014 projection: 5-11, miss playoffs
Summary: Very similar vibes to Carolina. A magic season in 2013 may turn sour very quickly in Kansas City. Its defense is due to come back to earth after its absurd performance last season. And though runner Jamaal Charles is a stud, the offense lacks top-notch playmakers in any other department. Playing alongside the Broncos and Chargers as part of its tough schedule from going 11-5 last season, the Chiefs are bound for a steep fall.
4. Oakland Raiders
2013 record: 4-12
Trending: Neutral
2014 projection: 5-11, miss playoffs
Summary: They stink...but I'm mildly intrigued. (and of course terrified the new look offense with rookie quarterback Derek Carr and veteran running back Maurice Jones Drew will shock the Jets in Week 1.) But unless Justin Tuck and LaMarr Woodley find the fountain of youth very quickly, folks are going to score on Oakland at will. They won't be the doormats everybody's been accustomed to.
Okay. So quick playoffs summary after that 2.9 trillion word regular season preview:
NFC Wild Card
(6) Cardinals over (3) Eagles
(4) Saints over (5) Packers
NFC Divisional
(1) Seahawks over (6) Cardinals
(4) Saints over (2) Bears
NFC Championship
(4) Saints over (1) Seahawks
AFC Wild Card
(3) Bengals over (6) Colts
(5) Chargers over (4) Texans
AFC Divisional
(3) Bengals over (2) Patriots
(1) Broncos over (5) Chargers
AFC Championship
(1) Broncos over (3) Bengals
SUPER BOWL XLIX
Saints 31, Broncos 24
Welp, there you have it. And I know you need just a little more. So a lightning round of Week 1 picks against the spread. Hereeeee we go! Home teams are bolded.
Saints (-3) over Falcons
Vikings (+3.5) over Rams
Browns (+7) over Steelers
Eagles (-10.5) over Jaguars
Jets (-5.5) over Raiders
Bengals (+1.5) over Ravens
Bears (-7) over Bills
Texans (-3) over Redskins
Titans (+3) over Chiefs
Dolphins (+4) over Patriots
Panthers (+3) over Bucs
49ers (-4.5) over Cowboys
Broncos (-7.5) over Colts
(Monday Night)
Lions (-6.5) over Giants
Chargers (+3) over Cardinals
Enjoy the season, everybody!
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