Unbelievable as it is, there are just three games remaining in this NFL season (3.5 games if you count the Pro Bowl.) Four teams are left standing, and each will put up their dukes this evening and have it out. Unsurprisingly, both top seeds are sizable favorites in their home stadiums. But both of today's underdogs have superstar quarterbacks, one of whom has won a Super Bowl in his own right.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 2 Green Bay Packers (13-4) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Kickoff: 3pm
The Line: Seattle by 8
The Lowdown: These two squads return to the scene of September 4, 2014's NFL season opener. Following that 36-16 beatdown by Seattle, talks of a repeat Seahawks championship season got a'brewin. Those talks simmered a bit as Seattle stumbled to lose 3 of its next 5 games, but the Hawks regained their mojo in dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage. The results? Seattle has won 10 of its last 11, including a 31-17 thumping of Carolina in last week's divisional round. Though that game was more tightly contested than the final score would indicate, therein lies the beauty of how Seattle is so effective. Things don't have to go perfectly nor pretty for the Hawks to find a way. Playing in front of their home crowd, they chip away and chip away, patiently rushing the ball with Marshawn Lynch and wearing out their opponent. Though he doesn't get the superstar accolades of his three quarterback counterparts this weekend, Russell Wilson brutalized the Panthers with third down dagger after third down dagger last week. And when push comes to shove, it's nearly impossible to go 60 minutes against this defense without a killer mistake (i.e. Kam Chancellor's game-sealing interception return touchdown of Cam Newton last week.) Seattle is confident as can be, and as mentioned, simply outclassed Green Bay earlier this season.
The Pack, meanwhile, come in with folks still talking about their game against Dallas and Dez Bryant's catch/no-catch debate. Though everyone has their own opinion on that play, it's tough to say Rodgers wouldn't have found a way to pull out that victory. He was near flawless in the second half after a rocky start. Questions still linger about his injured calf, which still isn't 100% and is certainly playing a factor in the lofty 8 point spread of this matchup. With MVP favorite Rodgers firing on all cylinders, this line would probably be cut in half. But all the uncertainty surrounding his health affects everything the Packers try to do on offense. Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb are worthy offensive adversaries to take of Seattle's Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, & co. But if the centerpiece isn't there with a full canvas of his abilities, Green Bay will be in a real tough spot.
The Pick: Seattle really has this professional football stuff all figured out. Their rushing offense pounds opponents into submission, their defense pounds opponents into submission, and their quarterback is Mr. Cool in taking whatever the defense gives him and rolling along. Granted, their homefield advantage is over-discussed, but it also can't be denied. Though 8 points seems like quite a bit, it seems everytime I take that mindset into a game, the favorite proves why everyone bets so confidently in them. Unless Wilson uncharacteristically takes a mindset of "forget Brady, Luck, and Rodgers...I'LL SHOW YOU who the superstar quarterback is!" resulting in forcing passes and suffering turnovers, Seattle will do what has made it so successful two years running. The "repeat" talk got going in September. And it will reach a fever pitch tonight.
Seahawks 34, Packers 21
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at No. 1 New England Patriots (13-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: New England by 6.5
The Lowdown: Let this blog by the millionth place where you'll see the pun that this game is All About Luck. The Colts young quarterback has brought his team to the AFC Championship with staggeringly little help surrounding him. Indy is utterly fruitless in trying to run the football, they struggle mightily to stop the run, and their defensive secondary is marginal thanks to star corner Vontae Davis. But besides that, it's Andrew throwing left, Andrew throwing tight, Andrew throwing middle, and Andrew throwing deep. Playing in the weak AFC South, the Colts have feasted on a rather fluffy schedule this season in getting to the playoffs. But now that they're here? They've conquered every obstacle thrown their way. Yes, the Bengals were injured and stinky in round one- and Denver played one of the most confusingly inept games in the history of football last week- resulting in the firing of Broncos coach John Fox and possible retirement talk for Peyton Manning. But none of that is of the Colts' concern.
What is of their concern, however, is that Luck has gotten whipped by the Patriots in each of his career matchups against them. Last year's playoffs...this year's regular season...things have gotten ugly. Indianapolis has Andrew, and the Patriots have shown to have a quarterback and a whole lot more.
Speaking of New England, the Pats nearly ran into a buzzsaw last week against Baltimore. The Ravens came out quick and never relented, building two different 14 point leads in the game. But the Patriots never panicked, chipped away any chance they got, and at the end of the day they squeezed out the victory. It seemed like a true coin flip as to who the better team was, but now the question becomes whether Indy is better than that Ravens team. It's a tough call. But based on the Patriots' rampant success against the Colts during the Luck era, clearly New England enjoys the matchups that Indy has presented them.
The Pick: Despite knowing that Baltimore would be a live underdog, I shared my thoughts last week that this did not seem like a "one-and-done" Patriots team this time around. Revis and Browner on defense, Gronkowski on offense, etc. On the flip side of things, does this year's New England squad have the moxy of a Super Bowl bound team? Well, they sure seem more qualified than this Colts team. The Patriots have a better all-around offense, comparable all-around defense, and decided edges in coaching and homefield. But ya know what? The Broncos enjoyed all those edges against this Colts team last week. Expect a close game where Indy covers the spread. And when in doubt as to who will win, just remember that one team has Andrew Luck playing quarterback and one team does not have Andrew Luck playing quarterback. Somehow, someway:
Colts 27, Patriots 24
Thanks for reading. Enjoy the games!
Sunday, January 18, 2015
Saturday, January 10, 2015
Divisional Round Saturday Playoff Pick'em
Greetings, all! And welcome to perhaps the highest quality weekend of football the NFL has to offer. Eight teams remain in the win-or-go-home playoffs, and following byes last week, all the top-seeds join the fun this time around.
The Wild Card weekend was a bit disappointing in regards to the brand of football played, but it still had its moments. Folks are still left in amazement over the penalty flag picked up in Dallas that helped spring the Cowboys comeback over Detroit, Baltimore's Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass using nothing but his toned thighs, and Arizona's Ryan Lindley set a new standard as to what constitutes an un-winnable starting quarterback.
At the end of the day, it was a 3-1 week picking against the spread. Carolina, Indianapolis, and Detroit came through while Pittsburgh was the lone blemish. This week's slate of games presents all kinds of challenges in terms of lofty spreads, injured superstars, and which team- if any- will keep us from seeing juggernaut matchups of Denver/New England and Seattle/Green Bay next week. So how will it all go down? Splendid for you to ask!
SATURDAY 1/10
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at No. 1 New England Patriots (12-4)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: New England by 7
The Lowdown: Patriots haters (present company happily included) will once again need to rally around the Ravens to take down Goliath. Baltimore has had some recent playoff success at Foxboro, are just two years removed from their own Super Bowl Championship. Quarterback Joe Flacco has a well-documented, mystifying ability to play at a level way higher than his regular season norm, and he out-gunned Pittsburgh's favored passing attack on the road last week. Running back Justin Forsett anchors a capable running game, and the Ravens' defense is quite stout in stopping the run as well. In an ideal world, Baltimore will ride Forsett like Secretariat. The less time Tom Brady has to carve up their vulnerable secondary, the better. Speaking of Brady, he had an MVP-type year after a very rocky start to the season. Though they didn't light up the scoreboard each and every week like in years past, the New England defense has their fans feeling like it's once again the glory days of the Bill Belichick era. Revis, Browner, McCourty, etc...suddenly you can't just chuck it at will on them. Just as he is every other game, Rob Grownkowski will be the key player, in his ability to dominate both before and after the catch. The Ravens struggled to make the playoffs, were underdogs on the road in the Wild Card round, and seem perfectly fine playing that role once again.
The Pick: Really looking forward to this one. Had Pittsburgh beaten Baltimore this week, it would have been one-man-team Andrew Luck and his Colts making the rough trip to New England. The vast majority of fans would agree that Baltimore presents the tougher matchup for these Patriots. But there's always the peril that once the divisional round arrives, folks desperately grasp for reason to predict the upsets rather than looking at games for what they are. This does not at all have the look of a one-and-done Patriots team. The defense is as good as its been in years, Grownkowski is 100% healthy, and as far as Darrelle Revis...just ask Jets fans the difference one guy can make on defense. Take Baltimore with the points, because 7 seems irrational. But as far as who's winning...well, I guess some dreams are indeed just meant for sleepytime.
Patriots 21, Ravens 20
No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Kickoff: 8:15pm
The Line: Seattle by 11.5
The Lowdown: The cat chasing the bird...it's a familiar storyline. A point spread as astronomical as 11.5 means there must be some unique storylines in play. And, well, there are. Carolina was a losing team during the regular season whose franchise player Cam Newton had been banged up, then got more banged up in a car accident, and looked rather ho-hum playing against the aforementioned Ryan Lindley & co. last week. Seattle, meanwhile, is the defending Super Bowl champions who have nearly all of their core players back, and also the most pronounced home field advantage in pro sports. Quarterback Russell Wilson, running back Marshawn Lynch, and the NFL's best defense have looked utterly dominant during their 9-1 stretch to finish the season. Carolina's only hope is that their potent rushing attack can set up some long pass pays over the top, and that their defense can hold down Wilson & co. The Panthers will need to be patient and determined in stopping Lynch, as Seattle often wears out its opponents late in the game. Seattle's one weakness is a not-so-great receiving corps, so if Carolina can play near-perfect football and keep things close, it may be able to get the crowd a bit nervous and rouse up thoughts of a stunner.
The Pick: A five-alarm upset alert is in order. Seattle is the better team from soup to nuts, but there's been a strange aura about Seattle since its dominating Super Bowl win over Denver last season. It wasn't the prototypical 12-4 season, as the Hawks were indeed sitting at just 3-3 at one point this season. Though it's great to get hot and roll off a bunch of games in a row, it may also create a speck of doubt if things don't go their way throughout this game. There have been troubling storylines with Lynch this year- his enormous fines for not talking to postgame media, his resulting bizarre/unpleasant interviews with that media, contract disagreements, his resentment of Percy Harvin being traded to the Jets mid-season. There's not a whole bunch of holes you can poke in a 12-4 defending champion, but Carolina has that moxy to them. Their NFC South division has been trashed all year, folks feel they don't belong, and very few think they can keep this one close, let alone win. But except for some receivers departing, these are the same guys who went 12-4 last year. While that season ended with disappointment in the divisonal round, Cam & co. flip the script and shock the nation.
Panthers 16, Seahawks 10
You know what? I need to get my brain in order and can't attempt to top that one by going into Sunday's games. Stay tuned- those will be up tomorrow. Enjoy Saturday's slate!
The Wild Card weekend was a bit disappointing in regards to the brand of football played, but it still had its moments. Folks are still left in amazement over the penalty flag picked up in Dallas that helped spring the Cowboys comeback over Detroit, Baltimore's Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass using nothing but his toned thighs, and Arizona's Ryan Lindley set a new standard as to what constitutes an un-winnable starting quarterback.
At the end of the day, it was a 3-1 week picking against the spread. Carolina, Indianapolis, and Detroit came through while Pittsburgh was the lone blemish. This week's slate of games presents all kinds of challenges in terms of lofty spreads, injured superstars, and which team- if any- will keep us from seeing juggernaut matchups of Denver/New England and Seattle/Green Bay next week. So how will it all go down? Splendid for you to ask!
SATURDAY 1/10
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at No. 1 New England Patriots (12-4)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: New England by 7
The Lowdown: Patriots haters (present company happily included) will once again need to rally around the Ravens to take down Goliath. Baltimore has had some recent playoff success at Foxboro, are just two years removed from their own Super Bowl Championship. Quarterback Joe Flacco has a well-documented, mystifying ability to play at a level way higher than his regular season norm, and he out-gunned Pittsburgh's favored passing attack on the road last week. Running back Justin Forsett anchors a capable running game, and the Ravens' defense is quite stout in stopping the run as well. In an ideal world, Baltimore will ride Forsett like Secretariat. The less time Tom Brady has to carve up their vulnerable secondary, the better. Speaking of Brady, he had an MVP-type year after a very rocky start to the season. Though they didn't light up the scoreboard each and every week like in years past, the New England defense has their fans feeling like it's once again the glory days of the Bill Belichick era. Revis, Browner, McCourty, etc...suddenly you can't just chuck it at will on them. Just as he is every other game, Rob Grownkowski will be the key player, in his ability to dominate both before and after the catch. The Ravens struggled to make the playoffs, were underdogs on the road in the Wild Card round, and seem perfectly fine playing that role once again.
The Pick: Really looking forward to this one. Had Pittsburgh beaten Baltimore this week, it would have been one-man-team Andrew Luck and his Colts making the rough trip to New England. The vast majority of fans would agree that Baltimore presents the tougher matchup for these Patriots. But there's always the peril that once the divisional round arrives, folks desperately grasp for reason to predict the upsets rather than looking at games for what they are. This does not at all have the look of a one-and-done Patriots team. The defense is as good as its been in years, Grownkowski is 100% healthy, and as far as Darrelle Revis...just ask Jets fans the difference one guy can make on defense. Take Baltimore with the points, because 7 seems irrational. But as far as who's winning...well, I guess some dreams are indeed just meant for sleepytime.
Patriots 21, Ravens 20
No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Kickoff: 8:15pm
The Line: Seattle by 11.5
The Lowdown: The cat chasing the bird...it's a familiar storyline. A point spread as astronomical as 11.5 means there must be some unique storylines in play. And, well, there are. Carolina was a losing team during the regular season whose franchise player Cam Newton had been banged up, then got more banged up in a car accident, and looked rather ho-hum playing against the aforementioned Ryan Lindley & co. last week. Seattle, meanwhile, is the defending Super Bowl champions who have nearly all of their core players back, and also the most pronounced home field advantage in pro sports. Quarterback Russell Wilson, running back Marshawn Lynch, and the NFL's best defense have looked utterly dominant during their 9-1 stretch to finish the season. Carolina's only hope is that their potent rushing attack can set up some long pass pays over the top, and that their defense can hold down Wilson & co. The Panthers will need to be patient and determined in stopping Lynch, as Seattle often wears out its opponents late in the game. Seattle's one weakness is a not-so-great receiving corps, so if Carolina can play near-perfect football and keep things close, it may be able to get the crowd a bit nervous and rouse up thoughts of a stunner.
The Pick: A five-alarm upset alert is in order. Seattle is the better team from soup to nuts, but there's been a strange aura about Seattle since its dominating Super Bowl win over Denver last season. It wasn't the prototypical 12-4 season, as the Hawks were indeed sitting at just 3-3 at one point this season. Though it's great to get hot and roll off a bunch of games in a row, it may also create a speck of doubt if things don't go their way throughout this game. There have been troubling storylines with Lynch this year- his enormous fines for not talking to postgame media, his resulting bizarre/unpleasant interviews with that media, contract disagreements, his resentment of Percy Harvin being traded to the Jets mid-season. There's not a whole bunch of holes you can poke in a 12-4 defending champion, but Carolina has that moxy to them. Their NFC South division has been trashed all year, folks feel they don't belong, and very few think they can keep this one close, let alone win. But except for some receivers departing, these are the same guys who went 12-4 last year. While that season ended with disappointment in the divisonal round, Cam & co. flip the script and shock the nation.
Panthers 16, Seahawks 10
You know what? I need to get my brain in order and can't attempt to top that one by going into Sunday's games. Stay tuned- those will be up tomorrow. Enjoy Saturday's slate!
Friday, January 2, 2015
2015 Playoff Pickoff- Wild Card Edition
Greetings and welcome back! It's playoff time in the NFL, and at long last it's time to offer up some picks that are sure to lose but sure to simultaneously be a whole lot of fun! First, a quick look back at my preseason playoff picks and how they fared during the regular season in 2014:
Predicted AFC playoff squads:
1. Broncos
2. Patriots
3. Bengals
4. Texans
5. Chargers
6. Colts
Real AFC playoff squads:
1. Patriots
2. Broncos
3. Steelers
4. Colts
5. Bengals
6. Ravens
Not an albatross! Texans were a big whiff and I didn't foresee the AFC North dominance, but the Chargers blew it on the last day when they had a playoff spot in the palm of their lightning bolts. But what can ya do? I'm grasping for as many straws/taking as many pats on the back as I can for the AFC picks because, the NFC on the other hand...
Predicted NFC playoff squads
1. Seahawks
2. Bears (twitching)
3. Eagles
4. Saints
5. Packers
6. Cardinals
Real NFC playoff squads
1. Seahawks
2. Packers
3. Cowboys
4. Panthers
5. Cardinals
6. Lions
Just 3 outta 6, and anybody on the planet could have predicted two of those correct teams (Seattle and Green Bay.) And those Bears....oy.
So the regular season may not have gone as planned, but that's nothing a perfect playoff pickoff (PPP) can't heal! It all starts with the four wildcard games this weekend, which all bring something great to the table and should be a real treat. Let's do this dance:
SATURDAY 1/3
No. 5 Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at No. 4 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: Carolina by 6.5
The Lowdown: Things start off with the NFL playoff's version of the Land of Misfit Toys. There is no misprint in the records above- Carolina lost more games than it won this year, but was still able to capture the NFC South crown. The Cardinals, meanwhile, got off to a scorching 9-1 start before losing both their starting quarterback AND backup quarterback. Arizona stumbled to a 2-4 finish to the season and now has something called a Ryan Lindley throwing the ball for them. Carolina had a nasty stretch where it didn't win a game from October 5-December 7 (0-6-1) but has since caught fire in going 4-0 down the stretch (albeit against very weak teams.) Nonetheless, with the division title and this playoff spot on the line, Carolina went into Atlanta's dome and eviscerated the Falcons 34-3 last week. Cam Newton had a very rocky season that had many questioning his health- and that was before a car crash late in the season that caused him to miss a game. But Cam looked like the old Cam in the season finale, and if you're a believer in momentum, it's not hard to see why Carolina is favored by a healthy margin in this game. Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are widely under-appreciated at wide receiver, but the Ryan Lindley has just shown so little in being able to deliver the football. The Panthers defensive secondary is a strength, as well.
The Pick: Well, whoever wins this game is almost certain to have 'double-digit-underdog' status when visiting either Seattle or Green Bay next week. You can't help but feel for the Cardinals, who entering the season had to hear all about Seattle and San Fran in their division. They went about their business in dominating fashion, only to lose players at the keystone position. It's good to see they were able to make the playoffs, but the Ryan Lindley is not engineered to win playoff games on the road against good defenses. Carolina manages the game, establishes their run game with Cam, Jonathan Stewart, & co., and grinds one out. Lay the points and take the Cam.
Panthers 24, Cardinals 13
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Kickoff: 8:15pm
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3
The Lowdown: Two of the familiar-est of foes meet in primetime. The AFC North rivals drop the gloves for the third time this season. If you're looking for some consistency, you got it: the Ravens won by 20 (26-6) at the matchup in Baltimore while the Steelers win by 20 (43-23) in Pittsburgh. This rival goes back a long way, and has largely been predicated on defense throughout the years. That likely won't be the case this time around, as Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and Baltimore's Joe Flacco look to feast on what has been weak defensive secondaries. Even more pressure will be on the Steelers to throw with news that superstar running back Le'Veon Bell will miss this game with a knee injury. A home team being favored by just three points indicates that oddsmakers see the teams as basically even. Neither team fears the other, both have Super Bowl winning quarterback/coach combos, and this could very well be the game of the weekend.
The Pick: Boy, the Steelers have had a weird season. Besides the Ravens, the Steelers have lost to the Bucs, Browns, Jets (really), and Saints- four teams that didn't sniff the playoffs this year. Meanwhile, they've issued beatdowns to playoff teams Carolina, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. Baltimore is a team you certainly don't want to mess with come January- and that was before they got wildman Steve Smith at receiver. Despite this, I like the Ben-led Pittsburgh attack just a little more than Baltimore's. Even without Bell in the backfield, Pittsburgh finds a way to solve their hated rival.
Steelers 34, Ravens 28
SUNDAY 1/4
No. 5 Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Kickoff: 1pm
The Line: Indianapolis by 3.5
The Lowdown: A big hint for this one appears to be October's regular season meeting, won by the Colts 27-0. Indy has Andrew Luck at quarterback, and not much anywhere else. Luck made the Colts one of the league's best pass attacks, while Cincy's Andy Dalton still seems to be something different every single week. It doesn't help the Bengals that Dalton's favorite target A.J. Green is banged up. Cincy may very well hitch its wagon to rookie running back Jeremy Hill, who has torched nearly everyone's he has encountered this season. Running the ball will take the pressure off Dalton and also keep Luck off the field. Because when he's on the field, he throws it early, deep, and often. Since a tough 0-2 stretch to open the season, the Colts have gone 11-3, with one of those losses a half-effort to Dallas late in the season after already clinching. Luck may not have much around him, but he evidently doesn't need it, either.
The Pick: Simply put, Dalton has shown nothing in his career to say he can be trusted in this one. He has melted in the playoffs each time he's been there so far, and I don't think this is a game where his weaknesses can be hidden. Luck comes out firing from the start, and this one gets decided early.
Colts 31, Bengals 10
No. 6 Detroit Lions (11-5) at No. 3 Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: Dallas by 6.5
The Lowdown: Two teams that everyone just kept expecting to fall out of the race, but never slowed down nor relented. Despite all the criticism he is destined to receive for all of time, Tony Romo leads a Cowboys offense that is actually quite terrifying. DeMarco Murray delivered insane production at running back, ditto for Dez Bryant at receiver. Throw in some Jason Witten and one of the league's best offensive lines, and Detroit can be in for some trouble. Don't shortchange the Lions offense, though, as Matt Stafford enjoys the pleasure of throwing to Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate over and over again. The Lions defense is also amongst the league's best against the run, and Ndamukong Suh avoided the suspension many expected after he tried to snap Aaron Rodgers' leg like a wishbone last week. Two high powered offenses give this game a real "expect anything and everything feel."
The Pick: Well, you never want to be the guy who picks all the home favorites on wild card weekend. What would be wild about that? The solution: find Tony Romo's game! I kid, I kid, of course. But take the Lions. At the very least, they'll cover that lofty spread, right? And I think they'll do even more.
Lions 20, Cowboys 17
Thanks for reading- enjoy the games!!
Predicted AFC playoff squads:
1. Broncos
2. Patriots
3. Bengals
4. Texans
5. Chargers
6. Colts
Real AFC playoff squads:
1. Patriots
2. Broncos
3. Steelers
4. Colts
5. Bengals
6. Ravens
Not an albatross! Texans were a big whiff and I didn't foresee the AFC North dominance, but the Chargers blew it on the last day when they had a playoff spot in the palm of their lightning bolts. But what can ya do? I'm grasping for as many straws/taking as many pats on the back as I can for the AFC picks because, the NFC on the other hand...
Predicted NFC playoff squads
1. Seahawks
2. Bears (twitching)
3. Eagles
4. Saints
5. Packers
6. Cardinals
Real NFC playoff squads
1. Seahawks
2. Packers
3. Cowboys
4. Panthers
5. Cardinals
6. Lions
Just 3 outta 6, and anybody on the planet could have predicted two of those correct teams (Seattle and Green Bay.) And those Bears....oy.
So the regular season may not have gone as planned, but that's nothing a perfect playoff pickoff (PPP) can't heal! It all starts with the four wildcard games this weekend, which all bring something great to the table and should be a real treat. Let's do this dance:
SATURDAY 1/3
No. 5 Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at No. 4 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: Carolina by 6.5
The Lowdown: Things start off with the NFL playoff's version of the Land of Misfit Toys. There is no misprint in the records above- Carolina lost more games than it won this year, but was still able to capture the NFC South crown. The Cardinals, meanwhile, got off to a scorching 9-1 start before losing both their starting quarterback AND backup quarterback. Arizona stumbled to a 2-4 finish to the season and now has something called a Ryan Lindley throwing the ball for them. Carolina had a nasty stretch where it didn't win a game from October 5-December 7 (0-6-1) but has since caught fire in going 4-0 down the stretch (albeit against very weak teams.) Nonetheless, with the division title and this playoff spot on the line, Carolina went into Atlanta's dome and eviscerated the Falcons 34-3 last week. Cam Newton had a very rocky season that had many questioning his health- and that was before a car crash late in the season that caused him to miss a game. But Cam looked like the old Cam in the season finale, and if you're a believer in momentum, it's not hard to see why Carolina is favored by a healthy margin in this game. Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are widely under-appreciated at wide receiver, but the Ryan Lindley has just shown so little in being able to deliver the football. The Panthers defensive secondary is a strength, as well.
The Pick: Well, whoever wins this game is almost certain to have 'double-digit-underdog' status when visiting either Seattle or Green Bay next week. You can't help but feel for the Cardinals, who entering the season had to hear all about Seattle and San Fran in their division. They went about their business in dominating fashion, only to lose players at the keystone position. It's good to see they were able to make the playoffs, but the Ryan Lindley is not engineered to win playoff games on the road against good defenses. Carolina manages the game, establishes their run game with Cam, Jonathan Stewart, & co., and grinds one out. Lay the points and take the Cam.
Panthers 24, Cardinals 13
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Kickoff: 8:15pm
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3
The Lowdown: Two of the familiar-est of foes meet in primetime. The AFC North rivals drop the gloves for the third time this season. If you're looking for some consistency, you got it: the Ravens won by 20 (26-6) at the matchup in Baltimore while the Steelers win by 20 (43-23) in Pittsburgh. This rival goes back a long way, and has largely been predicated on defense throughout the years. That likely won't be the case this time around, as Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and Baltimore's Joe Flacco look to feast on what has been weak defensive secondaries. Even more pressure will be on the Steelers to throw with news that superstar running back Le'Veon Bell will miss this game with a knee injury. A home team being favored by just three points indicates that oddsmakers see the teams as basically even. Neither team fears the other, both have Super Bowl winning quarterback/coach combos, and this could very well be the game of the weekend.
The Pick: Boy, the Steelers have had a weird season. Besides the Ravens, the Steelers have lost to the Bucs, Browns, Jets (really), and Saints- four teams that didn't sniff the playoffs this year. Meanwhile, they've issued beatdowns to playoff teams Carolina, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. Baltimore is a team you certainly don't want to mess with come January- and that was before they got wildman Steve Smith at receiver. Despite this, I like the Ben-led Pittsburgh attack just a little more than Baltimore's. Even without Bell in the backfield, Pittsburgh finds a way to solve their hated rival.
Steelers 34, Ravens 28
SUNDAY 1/4
No. 5 Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Kickoff: 1pm
The Line: Indianapolis by 3.5
The Lowdown: A big hint for this one appears to be October's regular season meeting, won by the Colts 27-0. Indy has Andrew Luck at quarterback, and not much anywhere else. Luck made the Colts one of the league's best pass attacks, while Cincy's Andy Dalton still seems to be something different every single week. It doesn't help the Bengals that Dalton's favorite target A.J. Green is banged up. Cincy may very well hitch its wagon to rookie running back Jeremy Hill, who has torched nearly everyone's he has encountered this season. Running the ball will take the pressure off Dalton and also keep Luck off the field. Because when he's on the field, he throws it early, deep, and often. Since a tough 0-2 stretch to open the season, the Colts have gone 11-3, with one of those losses a half-effort to Dallas late in the season after already clinching. Luck may not have much around him, but he evidently doesn't need it, either.
The Pick: Simply put, Dalton has shown nothing in his career to say he can be trusted in this one. He has melted in the playoffs each time he's been there so far, and I don't think this is a game where his weaknesses can be hidden. Luck comes out firing from the start, and this one gets decided early.
Colts 31, Bengals 10
No. 6 Detroit Lions (11-5) at No. 3 Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: Dallas by 6.5
The Lowdown: Two teams that everyone just kept expecting to fall out of the race, but never slowed down nor relented. Despite all the criticism he is destined to receive for all of time, Tony Romo leads a Cowboys offense that is actually quite terrifying. DeMarco Murray delivered insane production at running back, ditto for Dez Bryant at receiver. Throw in some Jason Witten and one of the league's best offensive lines, and Detroit can be in for some trouble. Don't shortchange the Lions offense, though, as Matt Stafford enjoys the pleasure of throwing to Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate over and over again. The Lions defense is also amongst the league's best against the run, and Ndamukong Suh avoided the suspension many expected after he tried to snap Aaron Rodgers' leg like a wishbone last week. Two high powered offenses give this game a real "expect anything and everything feel."
The Pick: Well, you never want to be the guy who picks all the home favorites on wild card weekend. What would be wild about that? The solution: find Tony Romo's game! I kid, I kid, of course. But take the Lions. At the very least, they'll cover that lofty spread, right? And I think they'll do even more.
Lions 20, Cowboys 17
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