Conference Title Pickoff: Who's Desert-Bound?

Unbelievable as it is, there are just three games remaining in this NFL season (3.5 games if you count the Pro Bowl.) Four teams are left standing, and each will put up their dukes this evening and have it out. Unsurprisingly, both top seeds are sizable favorites in their home stadiums. But both of today's underdogs have superstar quarterbacks, one of whom has won a Super Bowl in his own right.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 2 Green Bay Packers (13-4) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Kickoff: 3pm
The Line: Seattle by 8
The Lowdown: These two squads return to the scene of September 4, 2014's NFL season opener. Following that 36-16 beatdown by Seattle, talks of a repeat Seahawks championship season got a'brewin. Those talks simmered a bit as Seattle stumbled to lose 3 of its next 5 games, but the Hawks regained their mojo in dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage. The results? Seattle has won 10 of its last 11, including a 31-17 thumping of Carolina in last week's divisional round. Though that game was more tightly contested than the final score would indicate, therein lies the beauty of how Seattle is so effective. Things don't have to go perfectly nor pretty for the Hawks to find a way. Playing in front of their home crowd, they chip away and chip away, patiently rushing the ball with Marshawn Lynch and wearing out their opponent. Though he doesn't get the superstar accolades of his three quarterback counterparts this weekend, Russell Wilson brutalized the Panthers with third down dagger after third down dagger last week. And when push comes to shove, it's nearly impossible to go 60 minutes against this defense without a killer mistake (i.e. Kam Chancellor's game-sealing interception return touchdown of Cam Newton last week.) Seattle is confident as can be, and as mentioned, simply outclassed Green Bay earlier this season.
The Pack, meanwhile, come in with folks still talking about their game against Dallas and Dez Bryant's catch/no-catch debate. Though everyone has their own opinion on that play, it's tough to say Rodgers wouldn't have found a way to pull out that victory. He was near flawless in the second half after a rocky start. Questions still linger about his injured calf, which still isn't 100% and is certainly playing a factor in the lofty 8 point spread of this matchup. With MVP favorite Rodgers firing on all cylinders, this line would probably be cut in half. But all the uncertainty surrounding his health affects everything the Packers try to do on offense. Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb are worthy offensive adversaries to take of Seattle's Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, & co. But if the centerpiece isn't there with a full canvas of his abilities, Green Bay will be in a real tough spot.
The Pick: Seattle really has this professional football stuff all figured out. Their rushing offense pounds opponents into submission, their defense pounds opponents into submission, and their quarterback is Mr. Cool in taking whatever the defense gives him and rolling along. Granted, their homefield advantage is over-discussed, but it also can't be denied. Though 8 points seems like quite a bit, it seems everytime I take that mindset into a game, the favorite proves why everyone bets so confidently in them. Unless Wilson uncharacteristically takes a mindset of "forget Brady, Luck, and Rodgers...I'LL SHOW YOU who the superstar quarterback is!" resulting in forcing passes and suffering turnovers, Seattle will do what has made it so successful two years running. The "repeat" talk got going in September. And it will reach a fever pitch tonight.
Seahawks 34, Packers 21 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at No. 1 New England Patriots (13-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: New England by 6.5
The Lowdown: Let this blog by the millionth place where you'll see the pun that this game is All About Luck. The Colts young quarterback has brought his team to the AFC Championship with staggeringly little help surrounding him. Indy is utterly fruitless in trying to run the football, they struggle mightily to stop the run, and their defensive secondary is marginal thanks to star corner Vontae Davis. But besides that, it's Andrew throwing left, Andrew throwing tight, Andrew throwing middle, and Andrew throwing deep. Playing in the weak AFC South, the Colts have feasted on a rather fluffy schedule this season in getting to the playoffs. But now that they're here? They've conquered every obstacle thrown their way. Yes, the Bengals were injured and stinky in round one- and Denver played one of the most confusingly inept games in the history of football last week- resulting in the firing of Broncos coach John Fox and possible retirement talk for Peyton Manning. But none of that is of the Colts' concern.
What is of their concern, however, is that Luck has gotten whipped by the Patriots in each of his career matchups against them. Last year's playoffs...this year's regular season...things have gotten ugly. Indianapolis has Andrew, and the Patriots have shown to have a quarterback and a whole lot more.
Speaking of New England, the Pats nearly ran into a buzzsaw last week against Baltimore. The Ravens came out quick and never relented, building two different 14 point leads in the game. But the Patriots never panicked, chipped away any chance they got, and at the end of the day they squeezed out the victory. It seemed like a true coin flip as to who the better team was, but now the question becomes whether Indy is better than that Ravens team. It's a tough call. But based on the Patriots' rampant success against the Colts during the Luck era, clearly New England enjoys the matchups that Indy has presented them.
The Pick: Despite knowing that Baltimore would be a live underdog, I shared my thoughts last week that this did not seem like a "one-and-done" Patriots team this time around. Revis and Browner on defense, Gronkowski on offense, etc. On the flip side of things, does this year's New England squad have the moxy of a Super Bowl bound team? Well, they sure seem more qualified than this Colts team. The Patriots have a better all-around offense, comparable all-around defense, and decided edges in coaching and homefield. But ya know what? The Broncos enjoyed all those edges against this Colts team last week. Expect a close game where Indy covers the spread. And when in doubt as to who will win, just remember that one team has Andrew Luck playing quarterback and one team does not have Andrew Luck playing quarterback. Somehow, someway:
Colts 27, Patriots 24

Thanks for reading. Enjoy the games!