2015 NHL Playoffs: Do You Want to Build a Snowman?

It's here.

It's finally, finally here.

Tonight begins the 2015 NHL Playoffs. The season started in October with 30 teams dreaming the ultimate dream of raising the Stanley Cup, and that list has now been whittled down to 16. Included in these 16 are a Rangers team looking to return to the Cup Final after falling short against the Kings last year; as well as an Islanders team looking to write a fairytale ending to its final season at Nassau Coliseum.

These hockey playoffs are the crapshoot of all crapshoots. The upcoming basketball playoffs will also invite 16 teams to the dance...but in reality there are only 4-5 true contenders. In the NHL, seeding is just a number. As the 'Reset' button is pushed on everything from the past 6 months and everybody is now 0-0, it can be a hot goalie, clicking power play, playing on home ice, etc. that makes an underdog team greater than the sum of its parts.

It's why the Bruins and defending-champion Kings were so devastated to lose out on their playoff spots in the final week. These teams weren't playing for a boost in morale & for the right to get blown off the ice by the top seeds in their conference. No. If you're in this tournament, you can authentically win this tournament. Simple as that.

While that part may be simple, picking out who the heck is gonna win this thing is the polar opposite. The puck drops tonight on four of the eight first round series, so let's take a look at what's in store.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. (WC) Pittsburgh Penguins (98 points)
Season Series: Rangers won 3 of 4, Pittsburgh's only win came via shootout
Stanley Cup Odds: New York 5/1 (best); Pittsburgh 16/1 (9th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "I don't have a skull. Or bones..." -Olaf
The Breakdown: Is this finally 'The Year' for the Blueshirts? Last year they came darn close, with marathon playoff series leading to a Cup defeat at the hands of the Kings. But with nearly all the key pieces back for the Rangers and some important pieces also added, things are trending upwards in a big way. The Rangers depth on offense (Rick Nash, Derek Brassard, Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan, Mats Zaccarello) and defense (Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Keith Yandle) are scary enough. And on top of that you have to stare down Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes? These guys are Cup favorites for a reason.
The Penguins have been among the East's elite for the past decade, but injuries have decimated the squad. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are always a risk to steal a game or two, but the Rangers have Pittsburgh outmatched in nearly every element of the game.
The Pick: Unless Lundqvist lays an egg in Game 1 and the "We Want (Cam) Talbot!!" hoopla tears the team apart, the Rangers should dust off the beatup Pens rather quickly.
Rangers in Five

#2M Washington Capitals (101 points) vs. #3M New York Islanders (101 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with three of for games needing Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Washington 18/1 (12th best); New York 20/1 (14th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "Oh Anna... if there was only someone out there who loved you." -Hans
The Breakdown: Ever since the Islanders opened the year winning four straight, it's been a dream season for the Nassau Coliseum's swan song. The Isles even flirting with the top position in the conference for a short period. But it's been a rough finish to the year. Kyle Okposo sustained a midseason eye injury and following his return, did not maintain his torrid pre-injury production. Current injuries to forward Mikhail Grabovski and defenseman Travis Hamonic are also quite concerning. But the biggest worry of all is that goaltender Jaroslav Halak may be showing signs of burnout. The Islanders had some horrific losses down the stretch- which featured blown third period leads and a staggering amount of goals surrendered in the final minute of periods. But despite all the bad, the Islanders made the tournament thanks to the brilliance of franchise player John Tavares. Putting together an MVP caliber season, Tavares netted 86 points while Okposo was second on the team with...51. Tavares improves anybody who plays alongside him, and scoring (top 5 in the NHL) isn't the issue. Ryan Strome, Anders Lee, Frans Nielson, Nikolay Kulemin, Brock Nelson & co. will do their part.
It's all about whether the Islander defense can stiffen up and counteract the terrifying Alex Ovechkin-led Capital attack. Washington is a balanced squad- in the top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed. Ovechkin is flanked by fellow stay Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, and Troy Brouwer. Islander defenders will have a tough task locking the Caps down 5-on-5, and even more trouble with the top-ranked Capitals powerplay unit. With Hamonic out, expect Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy to have preposterously high ice time numbers. Goalie Braden Holtby has been a workhorse for Washington, with 73(!!) starts this season. He has been stellar throughout, and Washington is hoping that those same Halak-type burnout questions do not manifest themselves.
The Pick: Washington comes in playing much better hockey- that's indisputable. But as the season point totals indicate, these squads are neck and neck. Call it pageantry, call it lunacy...but doesn't the Islanders script for the final season at the Coliseum just beg for a postseason showdown with the Rangers? If both teams take care of business, that matchup will be secured. Few doubt that the Rangers will hold up their end of the bargain...and here's one that believes the underdog Islanders find a way.
Islanders in Seven

#1A Montreal Canadiens (110 points) vs. (WC) Ottawa Senators (99 points)
Season Series: Senators won 3-1
Stanley Cup Odds: Montreal 10/1 (6th best); Ottawa 18/1 (11th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "Who marries someone that they just met?" -Kristoff
The Breakdown: Nobody wanted to play these streaking Senators. Ottawa seemed dead in the water a few weeks ago, only to sizzle off a 21-6 conclusion to the season. It's a strange squad whose leading scorer is a defenseman (Erik Karlsson) and second leading scorer is a rookie (Mark Stone). But they also happen to have a goalie who went 20-1-2 on the season. And that is not a typo. Andrew Hammond is the straw that stirs this drink for Ottawa. But he has no playoff experience, and they guy standing across from him in Montreal's net...
...is likely the MVP of the league this season. Carey Price has gone wire to wire as the best goalie in the league, putting up a transcendent season. 44 wins and a sub-2.00 goals against average is staggering to see. But much depends on the health of leading scorer Max Pacioretti, who suffered a nasty injury earlier in the season.
The Pick: Many folks are all about this upset, but Price will outshine the young Hammond. Ottawa should hold its head very high for making it this far, but
Canadiens in Six

#2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points) vs. #3A Detroit Red Wings (100 points)
Season Series: Lightning won 3-1, with one game needing Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Tampa Bay 12/1 (8th best); Detroit 20/1 (13th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "This is awkward... I'm awkward, you're gorgeous - wait what?" -Anna
The Breakdown: Detroit has been a staple in these playoffs for the last 600 years, but this isn't a classic WIngs squad. Injuries, uncertainties in net, and transitional growing pains have left this a very vulnerable Detroit squad. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk have plenty of experience, but will need plenty of help around.
The Lightning, conversely, look primed for a deep run. Steven Stamkos leads an explosive offense and Ben Bishop has been tremendous between the pipes.
The Pick: Detroit has the storied history, but Tampa's time is now.
Lightning in Five

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. (WC) Winnipeg Jets (99 points)
Season Series: Ducks won all three matchups, but two went to Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Anaheim 9/1 (4th best); Winnipeg 25/1 (16th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "It's time to see what I can do- to test the limits and break through." -Elsa
The Breakdown: Yet again, the Ducks have put together a monster regular season to earn the West's top seed. But in one of the most topsy-turvy stats I've ever seen, Anaheim won 27 more games than they lost in regulation- and yet scored just 10 more goals than they allowed throughout the season. Yes, apparently that's possible...by being very clutch in one-goal games and having very very off bad nights where they got shellacked. Since winning the Cup in 2007, the Ducks have had plenty of playoff disappointments following big regular seasons. Usual suspects Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry lead the offense along with playoff veteran Ryan Kesler, playing in his first season for Anaheim. Frederik Anderson will start in goal for the series, with John Gibson also playing a big role during the regular season. But with an offense that wasn't in the NHL's top 10 in scoring, and a defense that was in the NHL bottom 10 for goals allowed, this is one of the more confusing, pedestrian top seeds we have seen in a while.
You're not going to find many marquis names on Winnipeg (perhaps hulking defenseman Dustin Byfuglien qualifies) but they have a goalie that has played his tail off in closing out the year. Don't ask me how to pronounce Ondrej Pavelec...just know that if he picks up where he left off in finishing the regular season, the Ducks are in deep doodoo. When looking for playoff upsets, nothing is more compelling than the hot goalie.
Elsa's quote applies to both teams for different reasons. Due to their underwhelming stats, folks are seeing the Ducks as ripe for the picking. They need to prove they're not in for another letdown. The Jets, meanwhile, are in their first playoff series since relocating back to Winnipeg in 2011. Expect those fans to be juuuuust a little pumped to cheer on the upset.
The Pick: A very tough series to pick, but Winnipeg just seems of have a bit too many eggs in its goaltender's basket. If Pavelec keeps it going and steals this series away, all power to him and the Jets. But the Ducks are a team of veterans (a reason their success in one-goal games may not be quite as fluky as people think) and are more complete from top to bottom. Winnipeg will win one at home for its deserving fans, but Anaheim closes the book on this one quickly.
Ducks in Five.

#2P Vancouver Canucks (101 points) vs. #3P Calgary Flames (97 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Canucks won coming in OT
Stanley Cup Odds: Vancouver 16/1 (9th best); Calgary 25/1 (16th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote:"I don't know why, but I've always loved the idea of summer...and sun... and all things hot..." -Olaf
The Breakdown: If you take a look at the Flames roster, and then the Kings roster, and then told folks that Calgary beat out LA for a playoff spot...most hockey aficionados may give themselves a mild concussion from so much head-scratching. Nobody's every heard of anybody on the Flames (though Jiri Hudler is nearly a point-per-game forward) and their best overall player Mark Giordano has been out for months with a biceps injury. But Calgary is a balanced team that finds a way to accomplish the most important of tasks: finding the back of the net. They are 6th in the NHL in goals scored, and experienced goalie Jonas Hiller will start the series.
Vancouver has the more explosive-yet-topheavy attack, with the Sedin teams and Radim Vrbata each eclipsing 60 points on the season. The Canucks special teams- which tend to make or break teams this time of year- have been stellar. The power play and penalty kill each rank in the NHL top 10. Goalie Eddie Lack has impressive peripheral numbers, but he lacks any significant playoff experience.
The Pick: See the Frozen quote above. No hockey playoffs are complete without at least one "wait...what?" first round result. Take the Flames. And the sun. And all things hot. Calgary finds a way to out-fun their Canadian brethren.
Flames in Seven.

#1C St. Louis Blues (109 points) vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild (100 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Blues win coming in a shootout
Stanley Cup Odds: Blues 8.5/1 (3rd best); Wild 9/1 (5th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "And you...is there sorcery in you, too? Are you a monster, too?" -Duke
The Breakdown: Whoa, nellie, look at those Stanley Cup odds! A first round matchup consisting of two 100-point teams is always a treat, and this one looks to be a classic. The Blues have once again put together an unbelievable squad, in the NHL's top-5 in goals scored, goals allowed, and power play. Vladamir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen, David Backes, and T.J. Oshie are all a handful to deal with, while Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex Pietrangelo leads what many consider to be the best defense in the sport. It's always scary to thrust a rookie into the hotbed that is the NHL playoffs, but Jake Allen has been tremendous throughout the regular season and will get the nod.
The Wild also boast some big names in Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Ryan Suter...but their most important player was midseason trade acquisition Devan Dubnyk. In just half a season, he complied 27 wins an a sub-1.80 goals against average. Jaw-dropping numbers.  
The Pick: The Wild have really come on strong to finish the season, and those lofty Cup odds are no fluke. But they got a real tough first-round draw in this St. Louis squad. As long as Allen doesn't get the willies in his first playoff action, the Blues should squeak by.
Blues in Seven

#2C Nashville Predators (104 points) vs. #3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks lead 3-1, with two games needing OT
Stanley Cup Odds: Predators 12/1 (7th best); Blackhawks 7/1 (2nd best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "You don't have to live in fear...cause for the first time in forever, I will be right here." -Anna
The Breakdown: Poor, poor Nashville...The Predators sat atop the NHL for so much of the regular season and seemingly withstood a midseason injury to franchise goalie Pekka Rinne..only to slip up at the end and lose their final six games. Their penance is a first-round date with the Blackhawks, with superstar Patrick Kane finally returning to Chicago's lineup (inspiring the Frozen quote above.) Rinne can be the best in the world when he's on, but the Predator goalie has struggled mightily to be himself lately. Chicago's Corey Crawford has proven himself to be more than capable in his own right, and the Blackhawks surrounding personnel simply outmatches what Nashville brings to the table. Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, & co. are poised for another deep run.
The Pick: It's hard to show such disrespect to a Nashville team that had such an impressive regular season. But Chicago's ability to stay elite even without their superstar showed how truly scary they will be now that he's back.
Blackhawks in Six.