Wednesday, April 26, 2017

NHL Playoffs Round Two: Clean Slate of Ice

That first round preview will be a very unseemly footnote on my tombstone. "Columbus over defending champ Pittsburgh"... "Bruins easy over the Senators"..."Chicago polishes off Nashville with little resistance"... and the coup de grace "The Wild sweep (or is it sweeps?) the just-happy-to-be-here Blues."

Batting .500 may make someone a god in fantasy baseball...but that percentage in picking playoff series just won't bring home the bacon. Welp, we're here to start anew. Eight teams remain in the hunt, giving us four matchups with varying levels of "wow appeal" The defending champs are still alive, as are the hometown Rangers...while out west one Cinderalla team in Nashville looks to keep dancing her way toward Lord Stanley. Hard to believe that teams are one one-quarter of the way toward their ultimate goal, but on we march.

Before it all started, I predicted Minnesota to win in all. Just like post-high school graduation when I predicted Kate Beckinsale would "win it all" in the context of my heart/marriage. Life gives us second chances. Let's make the very best of it....


EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M Washington Capitals vs #2M Pittsburgh Penguins
Season Series: Four Games- Two regulation wins WAS; Two OT wins for PIT
Current Stanley Cup Odds: WAS 8:1; PIT 8:1
Series Ther-WOW-meter: 10/10
The Breakdown: Well well well...we really come out of the gates swinging here. Certainly the premier matchup of this second round quartet, Pittsburgh and Washington have built up quite a rivalry over the past decade. The Caps have watched Sidney Crosby & co. raise the Cup twice already (2009, 2016)...and both of those years beat Washington in the second round to get there. The identical Stanley Cup odds for 2017 indicate the teams are close as ever, with Washington adding necessary pieces to the teams that have continually fallen short at this point in the tourney. 
The fresher team? That's not even a question. The expected slugfest between Columbus and Pittsburgh turned into a five-game romp. The Capitals embarked on a grueling six game series against the frisky Maple Leafs, with all games decided by one goal and a ridiculous five out of six going to overtime. T.J. Oshie was a monster in that series for Washington, leading the way with seven points. Evgeni Malkin (11 points) and Phil Kessel (8) put up video game numbers in dispatching the Blue Jackets. And based one round one performance, we'll gingerly call the goalie battle between Braden Holtby and M.A. Fleury a dead-heat at this point. 
The Pick: Last year, I was beyond certain it was the Caps' turn to finally gain a significant upper hand in this rivalry. The pieces were in place, the goaltending advantage seemed significant, and Ovechkin would know his window was closing and the pressure mounted on his shoulders. This year, I'm certifiably terrified by what Pittsburgh did in eviscerating Columbus last round. Though Toronto had expectedly brilliant coaching and promising young stars, Pittsburgh has the "now" stars. I wish for the Capitals sake they were actually starting this series on the road. The Penguin potential to steal one in Washington, build the pressure and get off and running is scary. At the end, I'd be thrilled to see the Caps finally get over the hump. But unfortunately at this point I must see to believe.
Penguins in 7

#2A Ottawa Senators vs. (WC) New York Rangers
Season Series: Three games- Two wins OTT; One win NYR
Stanley Cup Odds: OTT 50:1; NYR 25:1
Series Ther-WOW-meter: 3/10
The Breakdown: Both victors of intense six-games series, Ottawa and Broadway meet in a matchup that promises plenty of speed and skill. Ottawa was technically the higher seed and held home ice advantage in round one, but many were surprised that they were able to oust the Bruins (and win game six in Boston, at that.) Leading scorer (and defenseman) Erik Karlsson finally got some help from his buds up front, as Derick Brassard (8 points) and Bobby Ryan (7) both find themselves in the top 5 playoff scoring leaders. Goalie Craig Anderson has a freakish ability to be unbeatable in spurts. Though his first round metrics were a bit pedestrian, it was enough for the most important stat of all: four wins.
While we're on the subject of netminders, there's a kinda famous one in New York. Henrik Lundqvist entered the first round against Montreal's Carey Price as the "other goalie," took some lumps as his team fell behind 2-1 in the series, and then completely dominated from there on out. On the Rangers' offensive side, things have been....balanced, to say the least. Mika Zibanejad leads the way with four points, as there seems to be a "next man up/new hero every night" philosophy brewing at the Garden. 
It's a wonky setup this round, where Ottawa will have home ice despite finishing with less points in the standings than the Rangers. Though perhaps unfair, the Blueshirts had no qualms as road warriors in the first round before winning in front of their home fans in game 6.
The Pick: It's a shame this series will likely take a backseat to the ballyhooed Ovechkin-Crosby tilt, because we look to have a fun one here. As evidenced by the not-so-subtile Vegas odds, Ottawa is not exactly seen as a powerhouse. But the moxy they showed against a Boston team with plenty of playoff experience was impressive to say the least. Lundqvist admittedly looks like a man on a mission, building his legend with some ridiculous stops in the Montreal closeout game. Nonetheless, I appreciate the Senators' underdog status along with rallying around the Karlsson "yeah I'm injured, so what?" angle. Plus I need to get in a god troll job every now and again. Senators in 5


WESTERN CONFERENCE
#3C St. Louis Blues vs. (WC) Nashville Predators
Season Series: Five games- Three wins NAS; Two wins STL
Stanley Cup Odds: STL 14:1; NAS 25:1
Series Ther-WOW-meter: 7/10
The Breakdown: These two teams did their very best in making the round one preview as embarrassing as possible. Both certainly fit the category of "a hot goalie can overrule all else." St. Louis may not possess the most firepower in the world, but Jake Allen allowing Minnesota just one goal in games one (2-1 win), two (2-1 win), and three (3-1 win) gave the Blues the commanding 3-0 series lead that they never looked back from. 
For St. Louis to win a series in five games despite getting just three points from unquestioned superstar Vladimir Tarasenko is 1) impressive in terms of their defensive abilities and 2) a little scary as far as what's possible if he catches fire.
Nashville, meanwhile, staged one of the bigger stunners in recent playoff memory. It may not have been a vintage Chicago team that was firing on all cylinders and ready to raise the Cup for the fourth time in eight years. But the Preadators, well below .500 as a road team in the regular season, blitzed into Chitown and left with two shutouts and a bewildered opponent. Young stars Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg paced the offense while Pekka Rinne put on a goaltending spectacular that will long live in Nashville hockey lore. Nashville's been on cloud nine for over two weeks now, it will be interesting to see what happens if/when they face high intense playoff adversity.
The Pick: When in comes to picking underdogs to repeat their success, there's the old saying "if you're not there for the wedding, don't be there for the funeral." Luckily, I'm the dope that missed both these round one "weddings," expecting both of these teams to be defeated easily. Jake Allen's goaltending for St. Louis was nothing less than 'sensational,' but was still nonetheless within the realm of "humanly." 
Pekka Rinne, however, seems to have crossed over to the other side of what's possible. I for one am not getting in his way. Predators in 7

#1P Anaheim Ducks vs. #2P Edmonton Oilers
Season Series: Five Games- Two wins ANA, Three wins EDM (two in OT)
Stanley Cup Odds: ANA 12:1; EDM 30:1
Series Ther-WOW-meter: 9/10
The Breakdown: Get ready for the fireworks. Both teams know a whole lot about how to find the back of the net, and the John Gibson/Cam Talbot goalie matchup won't evoke any memories of Patrick Roy/Dominik Hasek battles of yesteryear. The Oilers are led of course by scoring champion and likely league MVP Connor McDavid. San Jose actually deserves a medal or two to limiting him to "just" four points in six games. Fellow young stud Leon Draisaitl chipped in to help last round in what was mostly a low-scoring series against the Sharks. They'll need to be at their best and get additional secondary input from teammates if they're going to outslug the Ducks.
Speaking of those Ducks, they had one of the more deceiving "sweeps" on record against a game Calgary Flames squad. They squeaked by games 1 and 2 by an identical 2-1 score before winning game 3 in overtime. But their balanced (Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf,....Nate Thompson?) attack's ability to notch at least 3 goals in each of the games speaks volumes. They are the unquestioned favorite in this series, but the pressure will be on to take both Games 1 and 2 at home. Otherwise these young Oilers stars will really start to believe in their potential and just how scary they can be.
The Pick: Anaheim may be a bit more of a baseball town, but would you happen to know the last time the Ducks lost a game in regulation? That would be March 10th. Nearly a month before baseball even had its Opening Day. Early east coast bedtimes have kept both these teams under the radar (except for McDavid, understandably.) Edmonton has waited a long time to be back on this big stage-- and plenty more are to come-- but I'm going with the more complete squad. Ducks in 6

Enjoy the games, everyone!

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