Movin' On Up

Hello there and thanks so much for coming back to the blog. Some of you may be wondering, "Where in the hell is my week 15 Sunday Smash??" I don't blame you. It's been that way since week 1 of the season.

But there's about to be some changes in Conor's blogging world in 2010. We are moving on from the Reilly Sports Blog to spearhead the new "Big Apple Big-Mouths" blog. It will consist of me and my longtime colleague, Chris Bianchi. Generously sponsored by ZDM Design Studio, you can find the site at NYSportBlog.com.

But don't think this is a Johnny Damon-esque sellout. I will not change anything about the blog's structure. Sure, a couple things here and there (you can see that starting this week, I will pick every NFL game against the spread.) But you will still get the Sunday Smashes, Monday Mashes, sparkling wit, and sometimes-egregious bias you've come to known from this site. We're just going Hollywood a little bit.

So I invite you to come along to the big leagues. I'd like to give my deepest thanks and gratitude to those who read the Reilly Sports Blog from the start. Along with my cherished 18 "Followers," I know there are many more that have given me encouragement along the way. It's what kept the site going. And I really hope each of you will continue to follow me and Chris on Big Apple Big-Mouths.

C. Reilly, over and out.

Holiday Hogepodge

Why hello there, strangers! Please pardon the blog's mid-week hiatus. We got lost in some holiday television specials on Wednesday; and weren't really in the mood to chat after attending the Islander-Ranger game last night. But we're back with the oh-so-rare Friday matinee edition. I'm in a rather chipper mood today, after the Colts knocked off the Jaguars to give the Jets' ray of playoff hope a little more glisten. We'll get to the Jets and Giants in a bit. Heck, we'll cover some baseball hot stove, too. Aw, what the hey, we'll even chat hockey! The sports holiday hodgepodge is in place, and the blog is ready to dish. Let's get to it...

Football
As usual, I'll start with the guys in green. As mentioned earlier, the race for the final AFC playoff spot may be down to three horses. Miami, Baltimore, and the Jets are all tied at 7-6. If people were placing bets, the Ravens are favorites right now. Unless I'm missing something, they are the team that makes the playoffs if all three teams win out. They also have perhaps the easiest schedule of the bunch, facing the Bears, Steelers, and Raiders (15-24 combined.) The Jets seem to have a daunting task of the Falcons, Colts, and Bengals (29-11 overall.) But some real luck may come their way, as the formidable Colts and Bengals may rest their big players to prepare for the playoffs. If Gang Green can seize their potentially-great opportunity, they can make some hay. It all starts with Atlanta though, which could be rocky. Miami is in serious danger with their schedule, as the Titans, Texans, and Steelers (a deceiving 18-21 overall) will all come to play. So as you can see by the schedules, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the Jets' playoff hopes in the palm of their hands.

Now to the Blue Man group. Their situation is a little less messy. After doing some conceding (Eagles win the NFC East, Packers get the 1st wild card spot) we can deduce that either the Cowboys or Giants will be the other wild carder. The Jets can help out by finishing off Atlanta on Sunday. Though the 49ers have shown feistiness, I'm going to declare it too little too late for them. That's where the deducing comes from. Being one game in front, the Cowboys are locked into the playoffs if they win their three remaining games. If they do not, however, the Giants hold all the tiebreakers and will be there to take Dallas' spot. Games against the undefeated Saints and formidable Eagles may mean another December heartache for the Cowboys. The Giants' quest to leapfrog them will start Monday night against Washington.

Baseball
Usually in December, baseball talk is all about the free agents cashing in on new deals. Though there is some of that going on (Lackey and Cameron to Boston, Figgins to Seattle, Wolf to Milwaukee, etc.) talk these days is all about "The Trade." Yes, the deal that landed new homes for 2 of the 5 best starting pitchers in all of baseball. The two-time defending National League Champion Phillies ditched Cliff Lee in favor of Roy Halladay. On the outside, it looks like a classic Brad/Jennifer/Angelina scenario. "One was really special, but we can take over the world with the other one." So the Phils did what they thought was necessary to stay on top, though it cost them some serious young talent. I will further discuss the hot stove when more things get done/I do more research. But Cliff Lee already seems spurned by Philadelphia. He is going to be a man possessed next season, and the Mariners suddenly look pretty zesty.

Hockey
Yeah, we're going here. It's almost halfway through the NHL season, and the Islanders and Rangers both have 33 points. How poetic. Though their totals are identical, one team's fans are calling for the heads of the head coach and general manager while the other is being praised for resiliency and good coaching. It's funny how hockey works sometimes. The general opinion is that the Rangers are indeed getting the least out of their talent. Forward Marion Gaborik is leading the league in scoring, but he is their solitary contributor on offense. Coupled with this lack of offense has been goalie Henrik Lundqvist's so-so play between the pipes. Nobody is looking to run the guy out of town, but he has set the bar very high for himself in recent years.

The Islanders have sure come a long way in 35 games. They are currently 2 points out of the final playoff seed in the east. To offer some perspective, they missed the final seed by 32 points last season. So there you go. Is there a swoon coming? Perhaps. But the Isles had a brutal schedule up to now (21 road games compared to just 14 at home.) If they can cash in on this upcoming home stretch during the holidays, they may be a long way from the #1 pick in next year's draft.

Thus concludes the holiday hodgepodge. Judging by the amount of blood on my fingers from typing, I'd say I made up for the hiatus. But I really wanted to tackle another edition of What About Conor Wednesday to commemorate the holidays, so I will do that today. Presenting for the first (and perhaps only) time, it's Facts About Conor Friday! Today's topic: Conor's top-5 holiday songs for the season. The links will take you to some kind of video for the song. Enjoy.

5. Carol of the Bells (Best Version- Trans-Siberian Orchestra)

I'm pretty sure this is the name of the song. To be honest, I've always called in the "Home Alone song." It's a real testament when a Christmas song doesn't need words to be awesome. This song begs for some kind of berserk light show everytime it is played. Every sound that's been discovered by man is featured in the song. I'm not exactly sure what connects it to the holiday season. But something just clicks with it. It belongs on this list.

4. Believe (Best Version- Josh Groban)

I'll admit, this one's a little...wimpy? I didn't go head over heels for the Polar Express movie. But I think this song--if not bigger than the movie--certainly gave it solidarity. The lyrics are nice and all, but the melody in the background just bursts with holiday cheer.

3. O Holy Night (Best Version- Bing Crosby)

A real 'keep Christ in Christmas' song. For me, something has always just set this song apart from other traditions (O Come All Ye Faithful, Silent Night, Hark the Herald Angels Sing, etc.) As for the best version, there is no question about it. Crosby's version was the first I heard of the song, and it's the undisputed champion.
BONUS VERSION- Eric Cartman. Hey, it makes me giggle.

2. Jingle Bell Rock (Best Version- Bobby Helms)

It's short and sweet. There's nothing I can say that the lyrics don't. And Bobby Helms sings it best.

1. Little Drummer Boy (Best Version- David Bowie and Bing Crosby)

Ok fine. The Little Drummer Boy isn't my favorite Christmas song. But this is my favorite Christmas video of all time. The uncomfortable awkwardness of the opening conversation absolutely blows my mind. And the way they drastically alter the song is preposterously phenomenal. It's just a staple of the holidays.

Well there you go. Feel free to comment with your own. We will hit the holiday movies next week. Promise. We'll see you on Sunday for the 'Smash.

Monday Mash- Week 14

Welcome back to the blog. Sunday's week 14 action had lacked some topsy-turvyness for the majority of the day. Great teams stayed undefeated. Good teams beat bad teams. Crappy teams beat crappier teams. The supposed-to-be game of the week ended in a 30-10 Minnesota blowout of Cincinnati.

Well all of that changed at about 8:30 last night, when the Giants and Eagles kicked off. The two teams made up for any lock of topsy-turv-ocity (and then some.) We will get to that slugfest in just a tick. First, the matinee games. Sure, some of it was mundane. But here are the things that made me give a Tony Robbins-esque 'YES!' from yesterday's action.

Did the Kellen Clemens-led Jets dispose of the Bucs and keep the season afloat?
YES!

Did the Dolphins take out the Jaguars to pull everyone even in the wild card race?
YES!

Did the blog's picks finish with a sterling 6-1 record on Sunday?
YES! YES! YES!

It all reminds me of the :26 mark of this video. Just call me the guy that's on the right, pacing back and forth.

So the blog basks in its glory, as the Jets, Chargers, Texans, and the Pack attack all prevailed as favorites. And all the while the Panthers and Dolphins covered as 'dogs.

The only blemish on the blog's picks? Well, that's a perfect segway into one of the topsiest, turviest games I can ever remember watching. To watch the Giants play the Eagles last night wasn't just viewing an NFL game. It was a conquest on the couch. It was an odyssey in HD. It was a monsoon with pretzels and popcorn.

Ok, all that is a little much. But this game had it all. And that's necessarily a compliment. Yes, the stellar quarterback play, long touchdowns, and resilient comebacks were all a part of the action. But so were the dropped passes, horrifically-missed tackles, and coverage ineptitude of a high school intramural game.

By the time the game was over, the scoreboard read 45-38, Philadelphia. The Eagles took the lead three and a half minutes into the game. That lead would last until five minutes remained in the third quarter, when the Giants went on top by 1 (because Philly had a blocked extra point early on.) That New York lead lasted all of fifteen seconds before DeSean Jackson was skipping backwards to the endzone. Game, set, match.

The Giants gave the Eagles all they wanted on offense (4 fumbles lost) defense (billions of big plays allowed) and special teams (DeSean Jackson again.) At home, to put up 38 points and nearly 400 offensive yards and lose...it's as inexplicable as it gets. The Eagles were favored by a minuscule one point, so the football world knew that anything was possible. But the game last night transcended possibility. It even flirted with the ream of impossibility.

Here's the rest from week 14...

The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Brandon Marshall, Broncos. To my recollection, the first ever performer to win the award despite his team losing. But Marshall re-wrote the record books with his 21-catch, 200-yard, 2-touchdown explosion yesterday. Denver's Unocinco went from the outskirts of the league's top-20 in receptions to third, one catch behind Reggie Wayne for second. He also vaulted into the top-10 in yards. The Broncos fell as the latest victim to the undefeated Colts, and their stranglehold on a wild card spot is getting a little loose. But this is an individual achievement for individual weeks, and this individual earned it.

• The new batch of teams mathematically eliminated from the postseason: St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, Oakland, and Chicago. One-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-other. Peter King predicted the Bears in the Super Bowl. I demand his job.
• Since they are in the NFC, the Giants' 7-6 record bears a lot more fruit than the Jets' 7-6 record. By virtue of the Cowboys' impossible schedule, the Giants are looking at potentially going 8-8 and still sneaking in. The Jets? Their only option is still to win out and get an itty bitty bit of help.
• I'm not sure if the whole Randy Moss quitting thing is actual news; or a product of late season lack-of-juiciness. Considering the Patriots won the game, I think it's all a little too much. But after his vacation years in Oakland, it's a situation worth monitoring.
• Due to the lack of juiciness mentioned earlier, this Mash is noticeably shorter. Just not too many games worth your time. The biggest eye-popper on the week 14 scoreboard? The Rams-Titans boxscore. No, not the 47-7 homicide. It was the St. Louis stat leaders. Passing: Keith Null with 157 yards (along with 5 interceptions.) Rushing: Kenneth Darby with 51 (all on one carry. Darby's yard total in the previous 12 games: 56 yards.) Receiving: Brandon Gibson with 43. I can say with confidence I had never heard of Null or Gibson until yesterday. I could have pegged Darby as an NFL player, but I wouldn't to be able to say what team he played for.
• Not the greatest Monday nighter tonight. Fans of the Cardinals can be excited that Arizona can clinch another division title if they beat San Francisco tonight. I fully expect them to do so. The Cards are favored by 4; take that with confidence. Cardinals 31, 49ers 13
  

Sunday Smash (Saturday Edition)- Week 14

Hello there fans and friends. It's the final straightaway of the race that is the NFL season. Twelve games down, four to go. There are six teams that are officially, utterly, mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. After this week, that number can grow by more than a half-dozen other teams. The week is already off to a bizarre start, as the Steelers laid an egg for the fifth consecutive week. (At this point, I'm a proponent for Troy Polamalu getting the NFL MVP every single season. Pittsburgh has shown what they are without him.)

On Thursday, (besides picking a Steeler victory and declaring how preposterous it would be if they lost) the blog took a look at the scenarios for the New York teams this weekend. So you can check those out. After dropping to 0-1 for the week Thursday night, we are obviously anxious for redemption. Here are the picks.

The Locals
Jets (-4) over Bucs
Kellen Clemens vs. Josh Freeman. Look out Canton! This spread would probably be doubled if Mark Sanchez were starting for the Jets. But as bad as Clemens has been, I think all Jets fans can agree that Kellen at his worst is actually better than Marky Mark at his worst. He won't be forced into anything big in this game. Thomas Jones will rack up the yards and work down the clock. And I see the defense re-creating the hell they gave Houston in week 1, smothering the young Bucs (not sure if the pun's intended) into turnovers.

Giants (+1) over Eagles
The toughest game of the week to pick. The Eagles have the momentum and probably have superior talent. But the Giants are at home and showed a whole lot of moxy in out-slugging Dallas last week. If Philly loses, they fall to even with the Giants and their playoff hopes take a big hit. If New York loses, its playoff hopes take a fatal hit. They will be slightly more desperate, and that's the difference in the end.

Around the NFL
Chargers (+3) over Cowboys
From the hardest game to pick, we move to what I think is one of the easiest (I will now pause and allow you to put your life savings on the Cowboys.) But the Chargers on NBA Jam-type fire right now. Contrary to their December reputation, the Cowboys have played well so far this month. But their vulnerability to big plays and lack of discipline was worrisome against the Giants last week. And San Diego has more explosive playmakers than Big Blue does.

Packers (-4) over Bears
Ya know, when the season is over I plan to do a detailed overview of my picks for the entire season. I'm going to see which teams I tended to pick for and against. There is little doubt in my mind that I've picked against the Bears more than any other team this season. Nothing about them is likable. And it's not in a personal sense. It's just I never see a spread that I like with them; not even a home game in freezing December against a big rival. I just don't see it.

Dolphins (+2.5) over Jaguars
Yeah, this is shameless pandering toward the Jets' playoff chances. And no, I'm not apologizing. Along with Denver, Jacksonville is another team whose success baffles me. If they win this week and get to 8-5, I can do nothing but tip my cap. If they lose? Well, a Jaguars team that is 7-6 makes a lot more sense to me.

Texans (-7) over Seahawks
In a division that had the potential to be wide open, Seattle has shown time and again that they want no part of winning it. Houston is at home and still has mathematics to play for. The Seahawks have a messy situation that has now reached their front office. 2010 cannot come fast enough for them. I have no problem laying 7 on it.

Upset Perfiction of the Week
Panthers (+13) over Patriots
There are 14 games taking place on Sunday. This one has the second-biggest spread (right below the Baltimore-Detroit barn-burner.) And I'm not sure why. The Patriots haven't been themselves the entire year, and all their problems have been magnified on the road. Some guy named Moore is under center for Carolina, but they have a two-headed nightmare of a backfield. With all the turmoil and guys getting thrown out of team meetings, the Patriots may be buttering us up for a 72-10 game. It's a possibility. But I'm banking on a competitive, exciting game that's going to get a little dicey for the Pats.

Enjoy the games!

When Life Gives A Kellen, Make Some Clemen-ade

Welcome back to the show. On the last transmission, I predicted a Baltimore win over Green Bay on Monday night. To nobody's surprise, Green Bay dominated. Though the incorrect pick stung, it was evened out (and then some) by virtue of what this result meant to the Jets.

Because with that win, I can now say with 98% confidence that the Jets will make the playoffs if they win out. Sure, it's a long shot. But the prospect of winning out and needing help is infinitely bleaker. Gang Green's playoffs start this Sunday and lucky for them, their first matchup is against a team with a 1-11 record. But the football gods seemingly wanted to handicap the game, as Mark Sanchez will sit out with his knee injury.

So chapter 47 of the Kellen Clemens saga takes place Sunday in Tampa Bay. The first 46 were met with mixed reviews (to put it kindly.) The 4th-year quarterback from Oregon has shown good arm strength and has definitely gotten better since he first started out. In fact, if Sanchez actually stayed in for the rest of the Buffalo game last Thursday, fans wouldn't be all too terrified with Clemens starting a game.

But that's the problem. Sanchez came out of the game. Fans then watched in shock and awe as Clemens tried to hold the lead for the rest of the game. It was graphic. Understandably, the Jets ran the ball like there was no tomorrow. But when Clemens dropped back to pass, the fans' mindset went from "Ok, he's rusty" to "Ok, he was woefully unprepared to play in this game" to "Oh dear God Kellen you are murdering my soul." It culminated with a sack/fumble in which D'Brickashaw Ferguson pounced on the ball to save the game and the Jets' playoff hopes. Everything the Jets fans thought they knew about Clemens' developing skills was napalmed in front of their eyes last Thursday.

But a win is a win, and the past is the past. Since Rex Ryan and the staff were probably playing it safe, Clemens has been preparing to start this game since last Thursday. He has started games before, and knows what it takes to win. Keeping that in mind, all I can say is that 1) Thank goodness they're playing the Bucs and 2) There better be 6 different ice baths waiting for Thomas Jones after the game. He will be that sore.

We'll see all that drama unfold on Sunday. Along with the Jets must-win, here are some other rooting you'll find Jets nation doing on Sunday...Lions over Ravens; Panthers over Patriots; Dolphins over Jaguars; Colts over Broncos.

(As an equal opportunity blogger, here is a short synopsis for the Giants' aspirations. First off, if they lose to the Eagles they are not making the playoffs. They seemed to realize that same situation about one quarter into the Cowboys game. They are hoping that furious finish will carry over. Besides that, Big Blue would love to see the Saints finish off the Falcons; the Bears upset the Packers; and of course the Chargers over the Cowboys. All of these are completely reasonable.)

Enough about Sunday. Because the AFC playoff picture will take some more shape tonight. The Steelers, somehow 6-6 after losing at home to Oakland, will travel into Cleveland to play the lowly Browns. As if their 1-11 record didn't say enough, Cleveland's only victory came in a game is which they scored 6 points (talk about lockdown defense!) But the Browns can be feisty, and they will bring all they got tonight against their big rivals. If Pittsburgh polished off the Raiders as expected on Sunday, this would have trap written all over it. But the Steelers losing to Oakland and Cleveland over the span of five days? Save that storyline for the Twilight Zone. Cleveland squeaks out a cover (they are +9.5) in an entertaining game.
Steelers 20, Browns 14.

We'll see you on Sunday.

Monday Mash- Week 13

Welcome back to the blog. I must say, this was one of the more relaxing weeks of watching football. The Jets were not in action, so no pressure there. But it's not on the same level as a simple bye week. Sure, there is no pressure of losing during the bye. But there's also nothing to gain from it (excluding rest, preparation, etc.) But I was able to sit back on Sunday knowing that the Jets had already won! So after that Thursday night win in Buffaronto, Jets fans could sit back and, well, hope for some help.

And yet again, the Jets got some help. The past few weeks, there has been one or two "sneaky upsets" that are doing nothing except keeping the Gang Green heart beating. Yesterday featured the sneakiest of all, with Oakland taking down Pittsburgh in their own building (much more on that in a bit.) The Dolphins also let the football world know the AFC East race is a long way from the checkered line, as they beat the Pats in one of the most topsy-turvy-games of '09. Finally, the Colts knocked the Titans out of the race while staying undefeated.

While there was much help, there were also a few big (plural of the noun-form of hinder.) The two wild card leaders took care of business, with Jacksonville eeking by Houston and Denver exploding Kansas City. So the playoffs are still a long-shot for the Jets. But they're still a shot. They need more of the same help they've gotten. I'm not going to go through the billions of scenarios, but Yahoo has this cool playoff generator thing that you can play around with and make your own scenario.

As for the Giants, they helped themselves in an enormous way yesterday. If you saw yesterday's pick section, you'll know it's something I didn't see coming. At all. It was for a little while, as Dallas jumped out early. But the Giants seemed to score 2 touchdowns in 4 seconds before the first half ended. A big plays (including Hixon's punt return) later, the Giants are alive and kicking for the wild card and even the division.

One of the teams in the Giants' way would be the Green Bay Packers, who play Baltimore tonight. One thing for sure is that one New York team is going to be very happy tonight. Either Green Bay loses and the Giants celebrate, or Baltimore loses and the Jets go bonkers. We will get to that pick later on in the usual spot. But you probably shouldn't trust the pick very much after yesterday's performance. It seemed like a pretty good balance...4 favorites, 2 underdogs. But that balance kinda goes out of whack when all six teams are on the road. The Cowboys, Texans, and Vikings all let down bigtime, while Denver easily covered. The Bucs couldn't pull the Perfiction upset, but there was still an enormous moral victory to be had from the section. Here's an excerpt from the Rams-Bears pick...

"Just begging for a cover here. I'm not making this the Upset Perfiction of the Week, because the spirit of that honor is that the underdog is supposed to win outright. The Rams have burned me too many times to count. Maybe they come through for once."

St. Louis was given 9 points. The final score? 17-9 Bears! Boom, baby. One of the biggest moral victories in the months-long history of the picks section.

Here's the rest from week 13...

The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Bruce Gradkowski, Raiders. We never thought we would see the day. A man in the silver and black has a day so epic, perhaps so absurd, he is distinguished with this honor. I've said all along that this award isn't all about the numbers, and sure enough, Bruce's 308 passing yards ranked just 9th in the league for week 13. But come on. The Raiders beating an absolutely desperate Steeler team? On the road?? NEEDING TO GO THE LENGTH OF THE FIELD IN THE FINAL MINUTE??? Just look at these highlights. Please, just pay attention to the Raider announcers' voices as they call that final drive. Even they couldn't believe what they were seeing. Gradkowski completed ridiculous passes to non-fictional NFL players that are named 'Chaz' and 'Johnnie Lee.' Sure, Bruce and the Raiders got bonus points for helping out the Jets. But this game, and his performance, was amazingly preposterous. Or better yet, preposterously amazing.

• Officially speaking, we know have 2 teams that have clinched the playoffs in the NFL. Though it was a long time coming, the undefeated Saints and Colts both punched their tickets. The Colts win was impressive, coming against the powder-blue-hot Titans. The Saints? Well, they got an early Christmas gift from the Redskins. Washington had dozens of chances to put that game away. But at the end of the day, both streaks live on.
• Minnesota is also a lock to clinch, but that was a particularly disturbing loss to Arizona last night. Sure, the Cardinals will always be dangerous. But the Vikings got some injuries they didn't need, and Favre looked a little 'Jet-like' with the ball. Everyone is entitled to a bad week. But the cloud of doubt about Favre seems to be forming overhead.
• I'm never betting for or against the Texans again this season. This is getting insane. I know Jacksonville would be a playoff team if the season ended today, but what was Houston doing?? They play every game as if they are 7-8 and it's the final game of the year. It never means anything to them. If that coaching staff stays intact into next year...I don't know. I would give up.
• The Bengals beating the Lions didn't shock too many people. But the headline on ESPN is a little rough on Cinci's fans..."Bengals handle Lions, clinch rare winning record." Is a backhand required with everything the Bengals do right? Their fans deserve this success.
• I was a little creeped out by the Eagles-Falcons situation. Michael Vick comes back to Atlanta, and shows ability that we hadn't seen since his return. Not only do the Falcon fans have to see that, but they also must watch their golden boy Matt Ryan injured on the sidelines as their season melts away. Seems like a particularly harsh day.
• I was thrilled that the Dolphins-Patriots game was on New York television. It was a thrilling game. But watching the Patriots for an entire game made me realize that Wes Welker is very often-overlooked in the discussion of athletes that look like sure pedophiles.
• Yes, the Broncos shut me up for at least this week. 44 points is a lot. And so is an 8-4 record. But road games against Indy and Philly will tell me a lot more than games against the Chiefs.
• As we said earlier, it's the Green Bay Packers hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night football. I've just done some extensive weather research, it's supposed to be 25 degrees with flurries. My green heart is with the Packers, and so is Vegas with a 3.5 point spread. But Baltimore's defense comes in angry and makes some plays. Big plays. Ravens 24, Packers 22

Sunday Smash- Week 13

Week 13...just typing that is surreal. The football season makes time move at hyper-speed. Halloween, Thanksgiving, and soon Christmas all fly by in a blur as we make our way towards the playoffs. There is a nice platter of games to digest today, but first let's dissect the first game of week 13.

The Jets and Bills were both on the road Thursday night, but Buffalo was considered the 'home team' in Toronto. As you often find in the Thursday games, the play is usually sluggish and messy. After all, New York and Buffalo only had 3 days of rest, and had to make the trip to Toronto during that time. So nobody was to expect an epic, wheelin'-dealin' type game. Here's an excerpt from Thursday's post, where I picked the Jets to win...

It may not be the most captivating game in NFL history, but the Jets are in desperation mode from here on out. No style points; every win is poetic.

Three days (and one Jets victory) later, everyone feels the exact same way. It's a bad cliche, but the Jets quite literally 'lived to play another week.' It's all they can do these days. Win your game, cheer for certain AFC teams to lose, move on to the next week. The Jets did their part for week 13. They can sit back today and know everything is out of their hands. (In case you're curious, the general consensus is that the Jets are rooting for the following today: Dolphins over Patriots, Houston over Jacksonville, and Indianapolis over Tennessee.)

The Jets win wasn't pretty (Braylon Edwards catching a ball with his face.) It was even painful (Sanchez questionable for next week with a knee injury.) But the defense is showing some real signs of going back to the good ol' days of September, and the running game is still a driving force. Yes, the team's been maddening with inconsistency this season. But there's plenty of places that have it worse than the Jets, perhaps even their gotham neighbors.

Seeing as how we got that Giants teaser in, let's get on to the week 13 picks. Just cover, baby.

The Locals
Cowboys (-1.5) over Giants
I have to keep a clean conscience this week. I want the Giants to win today. It would make the NFC playoff picture incredibly compelling. But tomorrow, I can't be staring at my computer screen wondering what I was thinking. Not this week. Keeping all allegiances aside, there is no concrete argument as to why Big Blue wins. So why the tiny spread? Because the Cowboys, despite winning consistently, have had some real nasty wins lately. An offensive dud today would not work out well. But I don't see it. The Cowboys move the ball with relative ease, and the Giants run out of steam at the end.

Around the NFL
Texans (-2) over Jaguars
This has to happen. No, not just because it helps the Jets. Houston was annihilating the Colts last week before, well, they collapsed. The played to their potential and then were afraid to lose. The Jaguars will not put this fear in them. And they don't have Peyton Manning, either. Matt Schaub goes on fire in the Jacnsonville sun.

Broncos (-6) over Chiefs
This one is definitely a trap. But I'm happy to fall into it. The Broncos ripped apart the Giants on Thanksgiving, and had plenty of extra rest to prepare for Kansas City. Denver is not even in first place anymore after starting 6-0, and they will take out some anger on the Chiefs. It will be over early.

Rams (+9) over Bears
Just begging for a cover here. I'm not making this the Upset Perfiction of the Week, because the spirit of that honor is that the underdog is supposed to win outright. But the Bears just anger me. Nobody seems to like each other, Jay Cutler's eyes are always misty, it's all a mess. The Rams have burned me too many times to count. Maybe they come through for once.

Vikings (-3.5) over Cardinals
There's talk everywhere that Kurt Warner's still not right in the head. In a medical sense. His concussion problems make him a gametime decision for tonight's game. Minnesota has made an argument about being the best team in football recently. So 4 points is nothing to fret about. Even if Warner does play, the Vikings defense will mess him up. Favre and the purple people eaters roll on.

Upset Perfiction of the Week
Buccaneers (+4) over Panthers
The Bucs had one of the bigger UPofW success stories when they beat Green Bay earlier this year. Let's hop right back on board. Jake Delhomme isn't starting, and now there's news DeAngelo Williams won't play either. Josh Freeman makes the Bucs watchable, and Cadillac Williams breaks off a few. Tampa shocks them on the road.

Yeah, I just picked six road teams. I gotta feelin, Fergie. Enjoy the games, amigos.

A Very (Sports) Thirsty Thursday

Hey there and welcome back to the show. Previously on the Reilly Sports Blog, I was hyping up the Saints-Patriots matchup as the game of 2009. A 38-17 final score later, here we stand a little red in the face. Neither team could really stop each other on defense, but Brady threw a couple of picks while Brees was a mix between Joe Montana and William Wallace. Everyone got involved in the action.

The Saints' leading receiver? That would be Marques Colston, the team's undisputed #1 wideout. However, there was news today that surely turned his week from sweet to bitter. Colston is one of the few NFL players that attended college at Hofstra University. Located in Hempstead on Long Island, it is indeed a hometown school of the blog. Today, Hofstra announced that it has dropped its football program after 69 years of existence. Colston and Willie Colon of the Steelers are some notable alum that are currently playing on Sundays. But the most famous product of the Flying Dutchmen/Pride program is Wayne Chrebet, formerly of the Jets. Until this year, the Jets also held all of their training camps on Hofstra's campus. These factors will always connect the small school with my favorite football team. So though I didn't attend Hofstra, it was still sad news to hear.

Ok enough sappy stuff. Considering it's a Thursday night, there is a rather tasty sports brew on tap for the evening. Here is a brief overview on where my eyes will be tonight...

• 7:00- Tune in for the puck drop in Atlanta, where the Islanders are playing the Thrashers.
• 8:00- Set DVR for Community on NBC. I hear that it's ratings are crappy, perhaps bordering on cancellation. That would be criminal. Watch this show if you haven't before.
  
• 8:15- Kickoff between the Jets and Bills in Toronto. This game becomes the primary game I watch. Check back to the Islanders on commercials.
• 9:00- Set DVR for The Office. I'm pretty sure they don't have any ratings problems.
  
• 9:01- Flip over to the Oregon-Oregon State college football game. The winner will go to the Rose Bowl to play Ohio St. Go Ducks! This will become another secondary game. It will share time with the Islanders until that game ends at about 9:30. Afterwards, this game has exclusive rights to the Jets game commercials.
  
• 9:30- Islanders end, hopefully with a victory.
• 11:30- Jets end, please Lord, with a victory.
  
• 12:30- Oregon's Civil War game ends, with a Ducks blowout.

So how 'bout that Thursday. All locked up from 7 pm until after midnight. Should be fun. Except for my eyes of course, who won't have any fun and will probably be begging for mercy by the end. Whatever. I'll keep eyedrops close.

So, here's the solitary pick (as if it will be a surprise.)

Jets (-3) over Bills
Yes, the Bills are bolded because they are technically 'at home.' They are also getting 3 points against a team they already beat on the road. Mark Sanchez bought, gift-wrapped, and delivered that game to the Bills (5 Int.) And he is more than capable of a repeat performance. But the Jets will be content having Sanchez throw under 15 passes tonight. New York ran for over 300 yards against the Bills last time, and they'll go for 400 tonight. Thomas Jones, Thomas Jones, and Thomas Jones some more all night long in Toronto. And when he gets tired, they will run Shonn Greene into the ground. It may not be the most captivating game in NFL history, but the Jets are in desperation mode from here on out. No style points; every win is poetic. The Bills offense seems to be on a roll, but they will be stopped if the Jets defense comes to play. And they will. God help me, they will.
Jets 24, Bills 13

Monday Mash- Week 12

Welcome back to everyone's favorite Monday tradition (besides Monday Night Football and Monday Night Raw, of course.) The blog is back for a post-Thanksgiving weekend Monday Mash. There is plenty to talk about in a week 12 that included upsets, comebacks, a primetime game that went to overtime and, of course, several incorrect Reilly Sports Blog picks.

Ok, I'll take most of the blame for foolishly picking the Dolphins and Panthers. The Bills and Jets were both at home and neither Miami nor Carolina had a whole ton of momentum. I don't know what came over me on that one. But the Redskins covering against the Eagles? Preposterous. Thank goodness for the gimme pick (Seahwaks over Rams) but it was a little bit of bad luck that I had to settle for a push in the Arizona/Carolina game (more on that in a bit.)

So there's your kinda-sorta explanation for what turned out to be a 1-4-1 picks section. The Upset Perfiction was by far the biggest heartbreak of the day. Houston, at home, getting 4 points against the undefeated Colts. I felt like a bonafied genius after the first half, as the Texans brought a 20-7 lead into the locker room. Before we get to what happened in the second half, here's a little lesson about sticking to your guns...

It was just 8 days ago, in week 11's Sunday Smash, when I typed this passage,

"I will not cast the first stone for picking Indy's first loss. It should have come on Sunday night against New England. Though they are 9-0, their record should read 8.5-0.5 instead. But I'm not picking against Manning."

It was just eight days ago. I deliberately went against my word and paid dearly for it. I let a hunch get the best of me. So it's no surprise that Peyton and the Colts would explode in the second half and win the game (and cover the spread.) It was bad enough that the Texans blew it, but seeing that blog entry from just last week adds insult to injury.

Despite some crappy picks, here's the rest from a pretty captivating week 12 (that still has its best game to come.)

The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Vince Young, Titans. Oh yeah. No doubt about it. Sure, his one touchdown paled in comparison to some other gaudy QB numbers this week. But he threw for 387 yards, 99 of which came one an epic final drive to win the game. Three conversions on 4th down, culminating with a touchdown pass to Kenny Britt with no time left on the clock. It's now 5 straight wins for a Titans team that started 0-6. Don't call them dead yet.
(Plus, Vince Young beat Matt Leinart, giving perfect reason to show this video.)

• Yes, the Titans still have a shot in the AFC. But that's because EVERYONE still has a shot in the AFC. There are 3 teams tied for the final playoff spot, with a 6-5 record. Behind that, there are 4 more teams (Jets included) lurking at 5-6. The message is clear: don't worry that you already have 5 or even 6 losses. The (lenghty) playoffs start now for these seven teams. Whoever can play their best football and run the table for 5 games will find themselves with a postseason berth.
  
• The NFC is considerably more clear-cut. Realistically, there are four teams battling it out for the two wild card spots. Philadelphia and Green Bay have a one-game leg up of the Giants and Falcons, who are giving no indication they are up for the chase.
• Though Altanta and Philadelphia are within reach of the postseason, both avoided the pesky "upsets-that-cripple-the-season" yesterday. For an explanation of that term, please consult Week 6: Jets vs. Bills and Week 10: Jets vs Jaguars. Anywho, the Bucs and Redskins couldn't quite play spoiler this time around.
• Terrell Owens has officially come out of his Buffalo hibernation (just in time to play the Jets on Thursday...dammit.) The Bills have a new coach, and a new gameplan to throw him the ball at all costs. Miami could do nothing to stop it. The Jets hope Darrelle Revis can pull another rabbit out of a hat and cover him one-on-one this week.
• Thank goodness for that Cardinals-Titans thriller, because the rest of the mid-afternoon games had the excitement of paint drying. 49ers 20, Jaguars 3. Vikings 36, Bears 10. Chargers 43, Chiefs 14. Yes, that last one is encouraging for the blog's Super Bowl prediction, but those "contests" were painful to watch.
• Coming to boredom's rescue? The phenomenal primetime game last night between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Dennis Dixon started for the concussed Ben Roethlisberger, so the majority of fans expected an ugly Ravens win. Something in the realm of 10-6 or 13-7. But the 20-17 overtime final had a little bit of everyting. Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall showing the future of great running backs, Dixon scampering for long runs, kickers scrambling for (and almost nailing) long field goals at the buzzer. In the end, it was Dixon throwing an overtime interception that seemed overdue. So Baltimore indeed won the game, but in a much different and more exciting fashion than anticipated.
• Only one question remains: who will win tonight's battle of the juggernauts? Just about 4 hours until kickoff, the line has New Orleans favored by 2 over New England. Hmmm, the last time the Patriots were slight underdogs in primetime....it sounds familiar. I'm not sure why. Something having to do with some coach making a big decision. Maybe I'll think of it later. But remember what I said about sticking to your guns? Here's an excerpt from Week 10's Sunday Smash...

"People are salivating about getting the Patriots and points. If the game is played in New England, the Pats would probably be laying three. That's how even it is. But the Colts have not lost, and they have Peyton Manning."

I'll say the same exact thing this week. Just substitute 'Saints' and 'Drew Brees' where applicable. Gotta stick to your guns. Saints 34, Patriots 28.

Sunday Smash- Week 12

Ok, right to business. Thirty minutes before kickoff and we gotta squeeze in this Smash.

To be honest, I exhausted much of my blogging mojo yesterday, as I recounted the St. Anthony's Turkey Bowl game. The complete story of the festivities can be found by clicking here. So the analysis will be light today, but tomorrow will be a comprehensive Monday Mash to make up for it, I promise.

Before the picks, let me just say a huge asterisk belongs next to my 'incorrect' upset perfiction of Thanksgiving. I picked a Lions team led by DAUNTE CULPEPPER to cover against the Packers. My heart sank when Matthew Stafford gamely made the start. And yes, he was very bad. The Lions and Giants go down, while the Cowboys cover easily. A 1-2 Thanksgiving...as Charlie Weis would say, "Not good enough." Today's picks will get us over the Mendoza line. So here we go!

The Locals
Panthers (+3) over Jets
Yeah, I said it. Maybe the Jets will win by 1 or 2 and this will be a win-won situation. But Kerry Rhodes being benched and Mark Sanchez now adapting a 3rd grade color-by-number play calling system, things are looking bleak in New York. Williams and Stewart will gash a defense that would sell their sould to have Kris Jenkins back.

Giants, lost to Denver on Thursday.

Around the NFL
Seahawks (-4) over Rams
Four points, Seattle? Really? Something's gotta give today as the Seahawks are 0-5 on the road and the Rams are 0-5 at home. Should be riveting. But four is not nearly enough for me to pick St. Louis. Can't do it.

Cardinals (+3) over Titans
Tennesee is absolutely rolling right now with Vince Young behind center. But you can be the hottest team in the league and still lose to Arizona (hell, you could also be the coldest team and still beat them.) Matt Leinart may start for Arizona...get the party started! But I believe in the --yes I'll pull this one out--the defending NFC champs to prevail.

Eagles (-10) over Redskins
Bonus points for Washington because their starting running back today is named Rock. But it won't help them much on the field, as the Eagles should have that spread covered by the second quarter.

Dolphins (-4) over Bills
Ricky Williams, supernova. The Bills will be helpless trying to contain the now-traditional Miami running attack. Owens and Evans may get a few long gains on a weak secondary, but the Dolphins will eat up the clock and score late to cover.

Upset Perfiction of the Week
Texans (+4) over Colts
Down goes Manning! Down goes Manning! It seems like Houston has been waiting for this game since the franchise's existance. How many times can they possible lose by 1 or 2 points to Indy? It all ends today. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and a little bit of Steve Slaton put everything into this effort, and they're able to beat the Colts at thier own game. I think....

Enjoy the games, see you tomorrow.

A Thanksgiving Feast

I have to admit, I had a plan for this post a few days ago. It was going to be the reasons the Jets should bench Mark Sanchez right here and now. I was going to list the reasons (same mistakes over and over, the media is really going to be out for blood soon, the Jets veterans can't keep their poker faces much longer with each and every rookie mistake, etc.) and arrive at a somber conclusion.

But we're in a holiday season. Sports should not bring us down (too much.) There's always next week to tell the Jets how to run the franchise. For now, we will do a Sunday Smash, Thursday Edition. It's the ever-elusive Thursday Thrash. So without further ado, here is a mid-week picks section for today's Thanksgiving matchups. Just gobble, baby.

Cowboys (-13.5) over Raiders
Tony Romo and the whole Dallas offense has played like, well, turkeys. Oakland actually has pretty good numbers defending the pass. But if the Cowboys have shown us anything this year, it's to expect the unexpected. Marion Barber tears up Oakland early on, and Romo shreds them late to pull away.

Giants (-6.5) over Broncos
If you've fancied this blog during the season, you probably notice the trend that I always pick against the Broncos. Their week 1 win was an insane fluke, and I have unfairly held it against them to this day. It's not like I hate them. I don't. But ever since that crazy win...I've just continually expected a fall. The Giants, despite beating Atlanta, clearly haven't escaped their swoon either. Kyle Orton is back for the Broncos, but I see a combination of him having rust and trying to do too much, leading to turnovers. It will be a close one, but I can see the Giants getting in the endzone late. They will keep pace with Dallas in the division.

Upset Perfiction of Thanksgiving
Lions (+11) over Packers
It's right there in line with the other Thanksgiving traditions: Hope, against hope, that the Lions can somehow win their annual Thanksgiving game. I started following football cohesively in the late 1990's, so the Lions being awful is pretty much all I have known. This year is no different, as they are given eleven points. This is the team that scored 38 last week! Oh yeah, it was against Cleveland. But there's something really special going on here: Matthew Stafford hurt his shoulder in that game. That's right, big ol' Daunte Culpepper is in line to get the start for Detroit. There's something about Daunte Culpepper playing on a day that celebrates food that makes me feel wrong to pick against him. You can do it, Lions.


Now for the return of What About Conor Wednesday. What's it been, 2 months or so? Preposterous. Here's a quickie in honor of Turkey Day. In reverse order, Conor's top-5 Thanksgiving foods. To make thinks interesting, I have excluded turkey from consideration. It's a given...

5. Cranberry Sauce
Delicious, yes. But penalized a bit because it lacks ability to 'stand on its own.' More of a complimentary deliciousness.

4. Yams with Marshmallow
I used to think it was gross. Then I tried them, and I've never looked back.

3. Apple Cider
In a weird way, it's the most exclusive 'Thanksgiving food' that I know. How often does one have apple cider??

2. Stuffing
I still don't know what it's made of. But they are all scrumptious.

1. Mashed Potatoes
The classic. I never have a bite of turkey without some potatoes mixed in. Doesn't get any better.

Thanks for reading. Happy Thanksgiving!

Monday Mash- Week 11

After the picks section went 0-6 in week 10, the NFL's week 11 has now come and gone. And I have just one word...

WOOOOOO!

Well, kinda. 5-2 is woo-worthy, no? The Cowboys didn't even come close to their spread, so that was a bad one. But the Giants had a 6-1 record absolutely gift-wrapped for me. A full touchdown lead evaporated in the final seconds, and the overtime period guaranteed they wouldn't be able to cover. The Vikings (emphatically), Colts (barely) and Patriots (damn it) all covered as favorites while my two 'dogs (Browns and Bills) both covered despite losing. Actually, both lost in such heartbreaking fashion... I'm worried I put a hideous curse on them.

Let's take a look at the locals. It wasn't pretty, but the Giants were willing to take any kind of win they could get yesterday. Sure, they spit up every opportunity they had to bury Atlanta. Sure, Eli Manning's gaudy numbers are quite deceiving considering how uncomfortable he was all game. And sure, Falcons star running back Michael Turner was injured and Big Blue let the backup run somewhat-wild. But they got the win in the end. They kept pace with the Eagles and Cowboys, whose wins (Dallas particularly) were just as ugly as the Giants'. Though there's tons of work ahead, the Giants live to play another week.

While the Giants live to play, we now visit the tomb of the New York Jets' season. It was a somewhat up-and-down game, in the sense of how much the Pats would win by. It looked like they would win by 40, then about 25, then very briefly about 7, then the final score dictated a 17-point win. The fallen Sanchize (more on him later in the week) did his best to keep the game anti-close with another 5 turnovers in the game.

Games like this present some very interesting thoughts in a fan's head. Once the Patriots had the early interception returned for a touchdown, any Jets fan that's watched for the last month knew the game was absolutely, utterly over. It didn't matter how early it was. The game was over. It's a unique feeling. Normally, every time I watch a game, I focus on that game. You know, what they can do to win. But when you're sure that the game (and your playoff chances) are all up in smoke, here are some (factual) snippets of what ran through my brain...

• Hmmm, I wish I watched college football more often. Then I'd know what players are between 10th and 20th best and can be excited to picture them as a Jet next year.
• If the Jets, for absolutely no reason, named Kellen Clemens as a starting quarterback after week 3, what would their record be? 7-3? 8-2 perhaps?
• If I change over to Bride Wars on HBO, but it's 15 minutes after it began, will I still be able to get the central idea and themes of the movie?

It's not really an enjoyable experience. You do irrational things such as criticize every single call by the officials. (For the record, though, I'm still rationally irritated by two calls: Leigh Bodden's Mortal Kombat uppercut to Braylon Edwards as he tried to catch a long ball and Bodden again for roughing up Sanchez on that last interception. The Liu Kang fatality on Edwards is a moot point because the Jets got a touchdown anyway. But the other one still kind of bothers me. The announcers didn't talk about it yesterday, and nobody seems to be talking about it today, so maybe I'm still irrational. You can see the play by clicking here and decide for yourself. You can see it a little bit at the :26-:27 mark, but the best angle is at the :39-:40 mark, as number 23 (Bodden) comes in and absolutely launches his whole body to put the wallop on Mr. Sanchez. In a season that's been loaded with ticky tack roughing the passer penalties (with Tom Brady being the king,) I was quite surprised and disappointed not to see some flags there. would the Jets have won the game if it had been called? Hardly. But a 10-point game with 10 minutes left and the Jets driving with momentum...it certainly would have made things more interesting.)

But it wasn't meant to be. The New England offense moved consistently on the Jets via the short pass (another excellent job by Darelle Revis not letting Moss get any monster gains.) While the Pats offense clicked, Sanchez gave them everything they needed otherwise. At 4-6, at least the Jets can go about their business quietly (for a change) and perhaps play spoiler. Sanchez will take more lumps and hopefully learn from them. Though it's bitter after a 3-0 start, it's better than being a team completely in turmoil (St. Louis, Cleveland, etc.)

Here's the rest of the juicy stuff from week 11...

The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Matthew Stafford, Lions. How ya doin, rookie? In yesterday's pick section, I felt I "had to pick" the Browns-Lions game. That was sarcasm for how ghastly the game was supposed to be. Both teams came into the game woeful. The result? Why the game of the week, of course! The Lions grasp the victory on an un-timed play at the end of the game. (The reason? Why an unnecessary pass interference on the last-second hail mary of course! You're the best, Cleveland.) But Stafford took advantage, throwing his FIFTH TOUCHDOWN OF THE DAY. (Has Sanchez thrown five in the last month??) Second place for this award went to the other quarterback in the Lions-Browns game! Brady Quinn threw for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns, which just missed Stafford's 422 and 5 scores. Yes, over 725 yards passing and nine touchdowns in the Stafford-Quinn shootout. And we're told that the NBA is where amazing happens...

• In Reilly Sports Blog fantasy team news, Tony Romo might have done just enough to win this week. Though it was disgusting (he should have torched Washington) he did throw a score in the end. Team Clean Sanchez (and the Cowboys) keep pace with the pack.
• I'm sorry it's taken so long to get to this...but how bout those upsets yesterday? The Raiders, already victors over the Eagles this year, stun the Bengals at the buzzer. Let the theories about Larry Johnson, locker room cancer, begin! In an even bigger shocker, the hapless Chiefs drop the hammer on the Steelers?? I know Cedric Benson and Troy Polamalu are out for Cinci and Pit, but those defeats are real shockers.
• The Chargers beat the living garbage out of Denver to take control of the division. Honestly...I wasn't the only one but...I told ya so.
  
• Terrell Owens went for 197 yards catching. Of course the Bills didn't win. It's a hate-hate relationship.
• It's becoming extremely clear that the Colts are not going for style points here. Who knew a 10-0 team could still be the cardiac kids? It's insane the Ravens are now just 5-5.
• The Saints are also perfect after blasting Tampa. Next Monday against the Patriots is going to be something.
• But this Monday night? Tennessee at Houston. The Texans are favored by 4. Steve Slaton is the man again at running back for Houston, and I gotta ride with my guy. Tennessee is dangerous, but the Texans find a way. Houston 24, Tennessee 16.

Thanks for dropping by!

Sunday Smash- Week 11

What a long week it was for the blog.

Rex Ryan crying, Mark Sanchez writing a post-game speech, Kerry Rhodes Tweet-campaigning for a Pro Bowl spot while being invisible all year. The Jets have done enough damage. The disastrous picks section last week was just the cherry on top.

I have taken plenty of showers this week, but I still can't shake off the stink of 0-6. I'm desperately trying to figure out what went wrong. Did I rush them? Did I overthink them? Did i type them out while walking under a ladder? I can't be certain (except about the last one.) But Sunday has finally arrived, and for week 11 I am 0-0. I got some fantastic news last night for my fantasy football league, as my top pick Steve Slaton--a player I deemed to be 4th best in the league--is finally off the Texans' bench! The tide has already begun to turn. I finally have hope. And hope is a good thing.

So let's ride this momentum train right into the picks section. And this baby's running express. Though the tragic events of week 10 can never be erased from our memories, I'm certain these week 11 picks will go a long way towards alleviating the pain. Just cover, baby.

The Locals
Giants (-7) over Falcons
Admittedly, this line was rather eye-popping when I first saw it. The Giants have been porous for several weeks now, but they have to feed off that huge boost they got last week during their bye. Atlanta has all kinds of problems, and tends to get really uncomfortable on the road.

Patriots (-11) over Jets
This game would be exponentially-more compelling if New York didn't wet the bed against the Jaguars last week. The Jets were talked about for all the wrong reasons this week, and the Pats still have smoke coming out of their ears from their Monday night debacle. I can see the Jets starting off inspired, maybe trailing by 3 or 4 at the half. After that? Oy.

Across the NFL
Cowboys (-11) over Redskins
That astronomical line is begging people to take the underdog 'Skins. Dallas was terrbible last week while Washington put the hammer on Denver. Both teams are due to return to their normal performances.

Vikings (-10.5) over Seahawks
Another meaty point spread. It was between this game or the Saints-Bucs game for which (10.5) spread I would pick. But Seattle won't know what to do against the Viking defense.

Browns (+3) over Lions
Gotta pick this one, right? For one game...just one game, the Brownswill find a way not to play so, well, brown. That's all I can say about that.

Colts (-1.5) over Ravens
I will not cast the first stone for picking Indy's first loss. It should have some on Monday. Though they are 9-0, their record should read 8.5-0.5 instead. But I'm not picking against Manning.

Upset Perfiction of the Week
Bills (+8.5) over Jaguars
This one just jumped out at me for reasons I'm not totally sure of. The Jaguars can probably run for 300+ yards on Buffalo, and maybe that will move the game along enough to keep it close. Yes, the same Bills team that kept last week's game close...until giving up 24 in the 4th. Times change.

Enjoy the games.

I Have...The Powa!

Well, it's mid-November 2009, and there's not much joy in Reilly Sports Blog-ville. The blog will have to drown its sadness in a whole bunch of turkey and apple cider come next week. After all, the Jets are not yet out of their swoon at 4-5, and find themselves as 11-point 'dog at New England this week. The Mets are trying to woo Roy Halladay out of Canada to save their seemingly-in-turmoil franchise. The Knicks are...well, moving on. I thought I'd be in my mid-50's before the Islanders could be the saving grace among my teams.

But look what we have here! Of course, nobody is aware, but these Isles aren't (that) bad! Sure they are in last place. But they're also just one point away from third place in an excellent division. We are more than a quarter of the way through the season and the New York Islanders would be a playoff team if the season ended today. Forward Kyle Okposo may be playing his way onto Team USA in the upcoming Olympics. With Okposo possibly playing for the Americans and defenseman Mark Streit leading the Swiss team, the Isles may even get some international buzz come February. For a team and fans that thought they'd be counting the days until the 2010 draft, things are looking pretty bright.
(I know, I know, the Lighthouse Project...throw the Isles fan a rare bone on this one.)

So we have a hodgepodge of NY sports stories to throw around. But we'll keep the focus on the NFL. No storyline hops out too much (Rex Ryan's tears, Jick Jauron's pink slip, Jerome Bettis laying the verbal smackdown on Bill Belichick are all mild headlines) so we will do something everyone can enjoy: NFL Power Rankings! It's a desperate move for a blog, maybe. But you have to do a couple of these once in a while, right? We'll do it from worst to first because it's more fun that way. We'll include the team's record, a little comment, and the Reilly Sports Blog's exclusive playoff odds. They are calculated using advanced mathematics combined with gut feeling. (Ok, there's no math involved ...try to enjoy them anyway.)

When Does the Offseason Start?

32. Cleveland Browns (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
The Browns have scored 78 points in 9 games this year. The Patriots have put up 59 in one game.
31. St. Louis Rams (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
The blog predicted a 1-15 record before the season. With one win already, the drama is building.
30. Oakland Raiders (2-7) Playoff Chance: 0%
Oakland's 2 wins only mean that they are heading for a deceivingly-low draft pick in April.
29. Detroit Lions (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
Thank goodness they finally got their victory, because they've had some tough luck with injuries.
28. Kansas City Chiefs (2-7) Playoff Chance: 0%
Getting rid of Larry Johnson is a good step. Their management will know what to do with high draft picks.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
Josh Freeman is looking promising at quarterback. They shouldn't be underestimated, despite the record.

Going Through the (Losing) Motions

26. Buffalo Bills (3-6) Playoff Chance: 3%
Fired their offensive coordinator before the season, fired head coach mid-season. Guess you can't fire T.O.
25. Washington Redskins (3-6) Playoff Chance: 5%
If not for a win over Denver they may be 5 spots lower. The NFC East division will be merciless.
24. Seattle Seahawks (3-6) Playoff Chance: 18%
A weak division causes a bump in playoff chances. They are among the NFL's biggest disappointments
23. Chicago Bears (4-5) Playoff Chance: 10%
Speaking of disappointments...the Bears (especially Cutler/Forte) have let down across the board.
22. Tennessee Titans (3-6) Playoff Chance: 14%
One of the most dangerous teams moving forward. Chris Johnson will be a nightmare for all defenses.

Hanging By a Thread

21. San Francisco 49ers (4-5) Playoff Chance: 26%
Like Seattle, they're never dead in the NFC West. Tough schedule will likely doom them, though.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) Playoff Chance: 26%
A win over the Jets kept them afloat, but 5-4 looks quite deceiving for them. Love Jones-Drew, though.
19. Houston Texans (5-4) Playoff Chance: 31%
They're better than a lot of teams that I rank higher, but the wild card is now their only option.
18. Carolina Panthers (4-5) Playoff Chance: 31%
Exact same situation as the Texans. They are the NFC's version.
17. New York Jets (4-5) Playoff Chance: 39%
If they win at new England this week, that percentage bumps up 10%. A loss, it goes down 39%.
16. Miami Dolphins (4-5) Playoff Chance: 39%
Same record and a better divisional record than the Jets. One more game against NE will decide their chances.

Ah, Ah, Ah, Ah, Stayin' Alive

15. Atlanta Falcons (5-4) Playoff Chance: 46%
Their talent cannot be denied. But Matt Ryan is hitting some bumps he hasn't faced as a pro yet.
14. Green Bay Packers (5-4) Playoff Chance: 44%
This team can beat anyone or lose to anyone. They're not catching Minnesota but the wild card is there.
13. Baltimore Ravens (5-4) Playoff Chance: 44%
They're in a cut-throat division, and they may have buried themselves too deep already.
12. New York Giants (5-4) Playoff Chance: 50%
They got some serious help during their bye, now they must take things into their own hands.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) Playoff Chance: 50%
They picked the wrong time for their mini-swoon, but they and the Giants are right there if Dallas trips.

Sitting Pretty

10. Denver Broncos (6-3) Playoff Chance: 51%
When will the bleeding stop? That win over San Diego earlier this year helps them tremendously.
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-3) Playoff Chance: 60%
They had a real chance to pull away last week. After a brutal loss to GB, they're barely hanging on.
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) Playoff Chance: 70%
The division is their's if they want it. As you can see, I believe there is a 70% chance that they do.
7. San Diego Chargers (6-3) Playoff Chance: 60%
The blog's projected AFC Champs! That win over the Eagles was a big boost. They'll pass Denver.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) Playoff Chance: 65%
They are solid everywhere, but another Polamalu injury is a killer. Cincinnati swept them.

Get Out of Their Way

5. New England Patriots (6-3) Playoff Chance: 75%
There's only so many games they can win in spite of you, Bill Belichick. Jeez.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) Playoff Chance: 75%
Every casual football fan is hoping that Cedric Benson's injury doesn't derail this magic carpet.
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-1) Playoff Chance: 90%
Brett Favre has only three interceptions. The Jets might truly be cursed.
2. New Orleans Saints (9-0) Playoff Chance: 100%
Close call against the Rams was oogly, but the other 8 games were convincing.
1. Indianapolis Colts (9-0) Playoff Chance: 100%
If they could win that game Sunday night, you tell me what game they can't win.


Hope you enjoyed that. That was too long to provide a WAC Wednesday. Look for that next week. See you this weekend for the games.

Monday Mash- Week 10

Thanks for coming on back to the show. Pop quiz question for week 10:

Q: Who had the most productive week 10 in the National Football League

(A.) The New York Jets, 7-point favorites playing at home against Jacksonville.
(B.) The Reilly Sports Blog pick section, coming off a scintillating 5-1 mark in Week 9.
(C.) The New York Giants, bye week.

The overwhelming, uproarious correct answer--your New York football Giants! You get a week off, then sit back and watch Philly and Dallas spit up their divisional lead! Big Blue was left for dead after losing four straight games, but now find themselves in somewhat of a driver's seat when it comes to the playoffs. Sure, they must improve their play drastically, but this was the easiest way to make up ground in football history.

As for the other two options on the pop quiz....whoa boy. Ohhhh doggy. It was a bad omen when the first play of the Jet game was Mark Sanchez interception. It was a worse omen when Maurice Jones-Drew didn't seem to have a run under 6 yards the entire game. It was the worst omen when Jones-Drew, with the Jets hoping and begging him to score a touchdown, went down at the goal line to prevent the Jets from getting the ball back. A field goal as time expired and boom, 24-22 Jags win. Jets fall to 4-5. From 3-0 to 4-5. That's a spicy meatball.

And the Reilly Sports Blog pick section? Well, an even spicier meatball. Something like this comes to mind. The first goose egg in blog history...0-6. I picked 4 favorites and only one of them (Indy) won the freakin' game! (We'll get to that phenomenal game in a moment.) The upset perfiction was the only one I came close on, as the Seahawks were given 9 points but lost by 11. Bummer. To be fair, I picked the Bills (+8) and they were actually looking pretty good...until the 4th quarter, when they realized they were the Bills and gave up 24 unanswered to close the game. Add in the Cowboys and Broncos both wetting the bed and, boom 0-6. So in conclusion, the emphatic answer to the pop quiz was the Giants. If someone told me the answer 36 hours ago, vomit would rain from above. Viva Los Jets. Viva El Reilly Sports Blog.

Here's the rest from week 10...

The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Bill Belichick, Patriots. And viva Bill Belichick! I was going to throw a curveball for this award and give it to defensive player Charles Woodson. He played tremendous against the Cowboys, forcing many a turnover. Woodson had it locked up until oh, about 11:00pm. He came so close. But then Bill Belichick changed it all. Every fan that saw their team lose in week 10...every fan that's had a losing season and looks for the rare moments this season that give them joy...VINDICATION! The Patriots went down to their bitter rival in a historical fashion. I'm assuming every blog reader is well aware of Belichick's immortal decision, so I'll save the blog space. But in the end, he defied the football karma. The script was written for Peyton Manning to have the ball deep in his own territory, and see if he could drive one more time on the Pats. Belichick made a decision that defied the script. There's no way the football gods would let the Pats two measly yards and let the game end anticlimactically. Not gonna happen. Not even for his highness. Thus ends the longest Delicious Performace summary in history. In case you couldn't tell, it made me a bit giddy.

• Though Belichick's blunder stole the show, the game was a real treat last night. Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne proved their both downright un-coverable when they want to be. Literally, the quarterbacks were equal, down to the final minute. Yesterday, Peyton Manning won the war. But those that tuned in to watch the entire game are hoping for another one come playoff time.
• The best team so far in the NFC (New Orleans) almost gave it up to the Rams. I almost wonder which team the NFL was rooting for. They want to see the Saints go as far as they can undefeated, but an upset like that makes every game viable for the rest of the season.
• In the battle of legs, team Hard Knocks took down the defending-champion Steelers for the second time this season. Once the Jets are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, there's no doubt which team the Blog will endorse come playoff time. Unless Larry Johnson comes in and acts like Angelina Jolie-Ohno.
• The Eagles/Chargers game was pretty darn entertaining, with Brian Westbrook's concussion being a backbreaker for Philly. As entertaining as San Diego's win was in a positive way, the Chiefs beating the Raiders was entertaining in a somewhat gross way.
• The Jets were 8-3 when Brett Favre began his swoon last year. The Vikings are now 8-1, praying there will be no swoon to speak of. Them and the Saints are really starting to break away from everyone else in the conference.
  
• Definitive team on the way down: Denver. Definitive team that's hot and doesn't want you to know it: Carolina! Look out for Jake the Snake.
• Not the best matchup on Monday night. The Ravens take on the Browns on Cleveland's dawg pound. The line is Baltimore by 12. I want to say that the Browns will cover. But hey, I have a mindset this week that got me to 0-6. Say I'm laying the points. Baltimore 31, Cleveland 10
  

Sunday Smash- Week 10

Welcome back to the show. The transition is now complete from baseball to football (along with hockey and basketball.) Boy, has this NFL season flown by, as here we are in week 10 already. Now's the time fans (and probably players) start taking a peak at remaining schedules to gauge their postseason chances. Teams that flew out of the gate (Denver, NY Giants) start coming back to earth, while the early disappointments (Carolina, Tennessee) may be doing some serious spoiling for the contenders.

Yes, the playoff push has begun. The Jets, realistically, have only a faint chance of sniffing the playoffs. A win against Jacksonville today would allow them to stay the course. A loss, though, and they will simply be grouped along with those 'playing spoiler' for the rest of the season. The Giants are on a bye, and have a week where they must examine every aspect of their team to figure out what on earth happened to them. Along with trying to fix themselves, they will have their pom poms out, cheering on the Chargers to beat the Eagles and the Packers to beat the Cowboys.

There's a brief outlook for the New York teams. Let's get to the picks, which are absolutely sizzling after going 5-1 last week. The pressure is building and the bar is being raised. the blog is ready to live up. Just cover, baby.

The Locals
Jets (-7) over Jaguars
The Jets can still barely sniff that division title. It's just a little whiff, and it's a little stinky, but they can sniff it. A win today and a New England loss to Indy makes that smell a lot more pungent. They can't let this one get away.

Bye week for the Giants.

Across the NFL
Cowboys (-3) over Packers
The Cowboys are going to frosty Green Bay to play an extremely desperate team. The Packers are playing for a lot more than Dallas (coach's job, quarterback's mental health, etc.) But Tony Romo and the fellas are on a roll. Until someone stops it, the blog's gotta roll with it.

Broncos (-4) over Redskins
Denver has played rather poorly the last two weeks. Washington has played rather poorly since the Clinton administration.

Bills (+8) over Titans
I'm not thrilled with this one, but 8 points just seems too high. The Titans can't cover anyone, so maybe this is Terrell Owens' one "stand" for the year, where everyone wonders for a couple of minutes if he can still be a top player. He can't. But Owens along with Lee Evans may keep this one within a touchdown.

Colts (-3) over Patriots
I had to take a home team somewhere, right? People are salivating about getting the Patriots and points. And the Indy secondary is pretty beat up. If the game is played in New England, the Pat's would probably be laying three. That's how even it is. But the Colts have not lost and have Peyton Manning, who's making room on the mantle for another MVP award.

Upset Perfiction of the Week
Seahawks (+9) over Cardinals
Arizona will either win this game by more than 14 points, or they will lose. Welcome to your 2009 Cardinals! Kurt Warner regresses a bit from his ridiculous performance last week, and Seattle makes the divisional race interesting.

Enjoy the games!

State of the Jets- Midseason Report

Well, we are pretty much at the midway point of the NFL season. The Jets have a convenient bye week...right smack in the middle. We will take a look at the Giants next week during their week off. But this week its all about Gang Green and their season thus far. First, a pure recap of what we've seen to this point:

Wins:
Week 1 @ Houston
Week 2 vs. New England
Week 3 vs. Tennessee
Week 7 @ Oakland

Losses:
Week 4 @ New Orleans
Week 5 @ Miami
Week 6 vs. Buffalo
Week 8 vs. Miami

There it is. 4-4, middle of the road. The wins (Oakland aside) are impressive, but the losses overshadow them greatly. The team that beat New England should never lose to the Bills or both Dolphins games. One perhaps to Miami, but not both. So at first glance, fans would love to see that record at 6-2 instead of 4-4.

But you are what your record says you are. And here's how they stacked up through eight games.

Offense
All the talk going into the season was about quarterback Mark Sanchez. Could he be the next Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco and actually make the playoffs? Or would he go down the road most rookie QB's take--struggle at first and learn the ropes. After looking like option #1 the first three weeks, he has fallen back to earth very, very quickly. Two losses are squarely on his right shoulder (Saints, Bills.) That means he's on pace to lose 4 games on his own which, actually, sounds about right for a rookie. Sanchez may have taken a step back from his first few weeks, but there are not very many people saying the Jets made a mistake in the draft.

At running back, the season took a drastic, gloomy turn when Leon Washington broke his leg. With him gone for the year, rookie Shonn Greene has been thrust into a meaningful role quicker than anyone thought. He has looked promising thusfar. But the team's offensive MVP so far has been Thomas Jones. Everyone predicted a big drop from last year's numbers, but Jones is in the NFL's top 10 for rushing yards and top 5 for rushing touchdowns. Fullback Tony Richardson has been invaluable is the blocking scheme. And with the offensive line is picking it up after a slow start, and the running attack looks to be in a great spot going forward.

In the receiver spot, Jerricho Cotchery looked phenomenal early in the season, trying to dismiss the rumors the Jets needed a true #1 wideout. He then got banged up and, well, the Jets acquired who they hope to be their true #1 receiver. Braylon Edwards came over from Cleveland and has looked sharp thusfar. Jets fans hope that once Cotchery is 100% healthy, Sanchez will have two quality recieivers on the outside, along with tight end Dustin Keller down the middle. Keller has done well when Sanchez finds him open, but most fans agree that he hasn't been found nearly enough. Other pass catchers Brad Smith and David Clowney have been used very sparingly.

Defense
It seems like there are hundreds of different ways to evaluate a team's defense. For what it's worth, the Jets have the second best D in terms of yards against, giving up 1 more yard per game than the first-ranked Giants. Keep in mind, however, that the Jets and Giants combined have just a 9-8 record. So we must take defensive yardage statistics with a grain of salt.

The 'points against' stats are far more fascinating. The Jets are 4th in the NFL with a tremendous 16.8 points against per game. Every other team in the top 7 of this category (Colts, Pats, Broncos, Bengals, Steelers, Cowboys) have a record of 6-2 or better. Except for the 4-4 Jets. The reasons? The kid quarterback and a game lost solely due to the special teams unit we will discuss soon.

All things considered, the defense has more than held up their end of the bargain. The one road contest against Miami is the only game in which they played 'poorly.' Against Buffalo they weren't great, but were good enough. Besides that, Rex Ryan has installed a unit that keeps the Jets in every game they play. You can't ask for much more than that from a defense. But a huge drawback hit the unit when Kris Jenkins tore his knee up. He's the real engine of the defense and to call him irreplaceable is an understatement. The stars of the unit (Revis, Rhodes, Harris, Scott) have to pick up their play even more to try to contain this devastating loss.

Special Teams
Certainly an unheralded aspect of football, but the Jets got a bigtime eye-opener of how important it is. Miami's Ted Ginn brought back 2 kick returns against the Jets that were the difference in the game. It's an absolute nightmare to lose a game with special teams being a primary reason. If the Jets had beaten the Dolphins at home, they would be right in the thick of the playoff race. Instead, they are a middle of the road team that is ensured a bad divisional record. Special teams coach Mike Westhoff is too good to have this unit lose another game on its own, but sometimes just one game can be the difference between the playoffs and the golf course.

Leon Washington's injury hurts special teams along with the offense. Neon Leon has made the Pro Bowl as a kick returner, and his presence will be missed. Hoping to capture some magic of the past, Gang Green brought back Justin Miller to return kicks. Though it was a short-lived era, Miller's knack for a big return did wonders for the Jets back in the day. They hope he can find it again.

As far as the legs, Jay Feely has missed a couple of field goals lately, but he can be trusted. He's in the NFL's top 10 in both kicks made and kick percentage. The Jets knew they wouldn't have a good punter this season, and Steve Weatherford really hasn't boomed too many memorable ones. He's kept things entertaining with some successful fakes, though.


So there's a brief look at how the Jets have gotten to where they are. Here's what they face the rest of the way:

Vs. Jacksonville (4-4)
@ New England (6-2)
Vs. Carolina (3-5)
@ Buffalo (3-5)
@ Tampa Bay (1-7)
Vs. Atlanta (5-3)
@ Indianapolis (8-0)
Vs. Cincinnati (6-2)

Overall, it's proabably not the scariest remaining schedule in the NFL. But boy is it loaded near the end. Simply put, the matchups against Jacksonville, Carolina, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay are games the Jets MUST HAVE. It's a roll of the dice in the other four games, including the Jets probably being significant underdogs against the Colts and Patriots. But if they take care of business against the weaker teams, it gives them sole leeway against the big boys.

Let's look specifically at the very-near future. The Jets tail New England by 2 games in the division. But the Patriots play the undefeated Colts this Sunday. If the Jets can beat the Jaguars and the Colts defeat the Pats, the lead shrinks to one game. Wouldn't you know it, the Patriots host Gang Green the very next week. So if things bounce the right way, the Jets have with a chance to come out of New England tied for first place. After the sometimes-glorious, sometimes-miserable 4-4 start, you couldn't ask for much more.