I Have...The Powa!

Well, it's mid-November 2009, and there's not much joy in Reilly Sports Blog-ville. The blog will have to drown its sadness in a whole bunch of turkey and apple cider come next week. After all, the Jets are not yet out of their swoon at 4-5, and find themselves as 11-point 'dog at New England this week. The Mets are trying to woo Roy Halladay out of Canada to save their seemingly-in-turmoil franchise. The Knicks are...well, moving on. I thought I'd be in my mid-50's before the Islanders could be the saving grace among my teams.

But look what we have here! Of course, nobody is aware, but these Isles aren't (that) bad! Sure they are in last place. But they're also just one point away from third place in an excellent division. We are more than a quarter of the way through the season and the New York Islanders would be a playoff team if the season ended today. Forward Kyle Okposo may be playing his way onto Team USA in the upcoming Olympics. With Okposo possibly playing for the Americans and defenseman Mark Streit leading the Swiss team, the Isles may even get some international buzz come February. For a team and fans that thought they'd be counting the days until the 2010 draft, things are looking pretty bright.
(I know, I know, the Lighthouse Project...throw the Isles fan a rare bone on this one.)

So we have a hodgepodge of NY sports stories to throw around. But we'll keep the focus on the NFL. No storyline hops out too much (Rex Ryan's tears, Jick Jauron's pink slip, Jerome Bettis laying the verbal smackdown on Bill Belichick are all mild headlines) so we will do something everyone can enjoy: NFL Power Rankings! It's a desperate move for a blog, maybe. But you have to do a couple of these once in a while, right? We'll do it from worst to first because it's more fun that way. We'll include the team's record, a little comment, and the Reilly Sports Blog's exclusive playoff odds. They are calculated using advanced mathematics combined with gut feeling. (Ok, there's no math involved ...try to enjoy them anyway.)

When Does the Offseason Start?

32. Cleveland Browns (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
The Browns have scored 78 points in 9 games this year. The Patriots have put up 59 in one game.
31. St. Louis Rams (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
The blog predicted a 1-15 record before the season. With one win already, the drama is building.
30. Oakland Raiders (2-7) Playoff Chance: 0%
Oakland's 2 wins only mean that they are heading for a deceivingly-low draft pick in April.
29. Detroit Lions (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
Thank goodness they finally got their victory, because they've had some tough luck with injuries.
28. Kansas City Chiefs (2-7) Playoff Chance: 0%
Getting rid of Larry Johnson is a good step. Their management will know what to do with high draft picks.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
Josh Freeman is looking promising at quarterback. They shouldn't be underestimated, despite the record.

Going Through the (Losing) Motions

26. Buffalo Bills (3-6) Playoff Chance: 3%
Fired their offensive coordinator before the season, fired head coach mid-season. Guess you can't fire T.O.
25. Washington Redskins (3-6) Playoff Chance: 5%
If not for a win over Denver they may be 5 spots lower. The NFC East division will be merciless.
24. Seattle Seahawks (3-6) Playoff Chance: 18%
A weak division causes a bump in playoff chances. They are among the NFL's biggest disappointments
23. Chicago Bears (4-5) Playoff Chance: 10%
Speaking of disappointments...the Bears (especially Cutler/Forte) have let down across the board.
22. Tennessee Titans (3-6) Playoff Chance: 14%
One of the most dangerous teams moving forward. Chris Johnson will be a nightmare for all defenses.

Hanging By a Thread

21. San Francisco 49ers (4-5) Playoff Chance: 26%
Like Seattle, they're never dead in the NFC West. Tough schedule will likely doom them, though.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) Playoff Chance: 26%
A win over the Jets kept them afloat, but 5-4 looks quite deceiving for them. Love Jones-Drew, though.
19. Houston Texans (5-4) Playoff Chance: 31%
They're better than a lot of teams that I rank higher, but the wild card is now their only option.
18. Carolina Panthers (4-5) Playoff Chance: 31%
Exact same situation as the Texans. They are the NFC's version.
17. New York Jets (4-5) Playoff Chance: 39%
If they win at new England this week, that percentage bumps up 10%. A loss, it goes down 39%.
16. Miami Dolphins (4-5) Playoff Chance: 39%
Same record and a better divisional record than the Jets. One more game against NE will decide their chances.

Ah, Ah, Ah, Ah, Stayin' Alive

15. Atlanta Falcons (5-4) Playoff Chance: 46%
Their talent cannot be denied. But Matt Ryan is hitting some bumps he hasn't faced as a pro yet.
14. Green Bay Packers (5-4) Playoff Chance: 44%
This team can beat anyone or lose to anyone. They're not catching Minnesota but the wild card is there.
13. Baltimore Ravens (5-4) Playoff Chance: 44%
They're in a cut-throat division, and they may have buried themselves too deep already.
12. New York Giants (5-4) Playoff Chance: 50%
They got some serious help during their bye, now they must take things into their own hands.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) Playoff Chance: 50%
They picked the wrong time for their mini-swoon, but they and the Giants are right there if Dallas trips.

Sitting Pretty

10. Denver Broncos (6-3) Playoff Chance: 51%
When will the bleeding stop? That win over San Diego earlier this year helps them tremendously.
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-3) Playoff Chance: 60%
They had a real chance to pull away last week. After a brutal loss to GB, they're barely hanging on.
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) Playoff Chance: 70%
The division is their's if they want it. As you can see, I believe there is a 70% chance that they do.
7. San Diego Chargers (6-3) Playoff Chance: 60%
The blog's projected AFC Champs! That win over the Eagles was a big boost. They'll pass Denver.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) Playoff Chance: 65%
They are solid everywhere, but another Polamalu injury is a killer. Cincinnati swept them.

Get Out of Their Way

5. New England Patriots (6-3) Playoff Chance: 75%
There's only so many games they can win in spite of you, Bill Belichick. Jeez.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) Playoff Chance: 75%
Every casual football fan is hoping that Cedric Benson's injury doesn't derail this magic carpet.
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-1) Playoff Chance: 90%
Brett Favre has only three interceptions. The Jets might truly be cursed.
2. New Orleans Saints (9-0) Playoff Chance: 100%
Close call against the Rams was oogly, but the other 8 games were convincing.
1. Indianapolis Colts (9-0) Playoff Chance: 100%
If they could win that game Sunday night, you tell me what game they can't win.


Hope you enjoyed that. That was too long to provide a WAC Wednesday. Look for that next week. See you this weekend for the games.