Monday Mash- Week 12

Welcome back to everyone's favorite Monday tradition (besides Monday Night Football and Monday Night Raw, of course.) The blog is back for a post-Thanksgiving weekend Monday Mash. There is plenty to talk about in a week 12 that included upsets, comebacks, a primetime game that went to overtime and, of course, several incorrect Reilly Sports Blog picks.

Ok, I'll take most of the blame for foolishly picking the Dolphins and Panthers. The Bills and Jets were both at home and neither Miami nor Carolina had a whole ton of momentum. I don't know what came over me on that one. But the Redskins covering against the Eagles? Preposterous. Thank goodness for the gimme pick (Seahwaks over Rams) but it was a little bit of bad luck that I had to settle for a push in the Arizona/Carolina game (more on that in a bit.)

So there's your kinda-sorta explanation for what turned out to be a 1-4-1 picks section. The Upset Perfiction was by far the biggest heartbreak of the day. Houston, at home, getting 4 points against the undefeated Colts. I felt like a bonafied genius after the first half, as the Texans brought a 20-7 lead into the locker room. Before we get to what happened in the second half, here's a little lesson about sticking to your guns...

It was just 8 days ago, in week 11's Sunday Smash, when I typed this passage,

"I will not cast the first stone for picking Indy's first loss. It should have come on Sunday night against New England. Though they are 9-0, their record should read 8.5-0.5 instead. But I'm not picking against Manning."

It was just eight days ago. I deliberately went against my word and paid dearly for it. I let a hunch get the best of me. So it's no surprise that Peyton and the Colts would explode in the second half and win the game (and cover the spread.) It was bad enough that the Texans blew it, but seeing that blog entry from just last week adds insult to injury.

Despite some crappy picks, here's the rest from a pretty captivating week 12 (that still has its best game to come.)

The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Vince Young, Titans. Oh yeah. No doubt about it. Sure, his one touchdown paled in comparison to some other gaudy QB numbers this week. But he threw for 387 yards, 99 of which came one an epic final drive to win the game. Three conversions on 4th down, culminating with a touchdown pass to Kenny Britt with no time left on the clock. It's now 5 straight wins for a Titans team that started 0-6. Don't call them dead yet.
(Plus, Vince Young beat Matt Leinart, giving perfect reason to show this video.)

• Yes, the Titans still have a shot in the AFC. But that's because EVERYONE still has a shot in the AFC. There are 3 teams tied for the final playoff spot, with a 6-5 record. Behind that, there are 4 more teams (Jets included) lurking at 5-6. The message is clear: don't worry that you already have 5 or even 6 losses. The (lenghty) playoffs start now for these seven teams. Whoever can play their best football and run the table for 5 games will find themselves with a postseason berth.
  
• The NFC is considerably more clear-cut. Realistically, there are four teams battling it out for the two wild card spots. Philadelphia and Green Bay have a one-game leg up of the Giants and Falcons, who are giving no indication they are up for the chase.
• Though Altanta and Philadelphia are within reach of the postseason, both avoided the pesky "upsets-that-cripple-the-season" yesterday. For an explanation of that term, please consult Week 6: Jets vs. Bills and Week 10: Jets vs Jaguars. Anywho, the Bucs and Redskins couldn't quite play spoiler this time around.
• Terrell Owens has officially come out of his Buffalo hibernation (just in time to play the Jets on Thursday...dammit.) The Bills have a new coach, and a new gameplan to throw him the ball at all costs. Miami could do nothing to stop it. The Jets hope Darrelle Revis can pull another rabbit out of a hat and cover him one-on-one this week.
• Thank goodness for that Cardinals-Titans thriller, because the rest of the mid-afternoon games had the excitement of paint drying. 49ers 20, Jaguars 3. Vikings 36, Bears 10. Chargers 43, Chiefs 14. Yes, that last one is encouraging for the blog's Super Bowl prediction, but those "contests" were painful to watch.
• Coming to boredom's rescue? The phenomenal primetime game last night between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Dennis Dixon started for the concussed Ben Roethlisberger, so the majority of fans expected an ugly Ravens win. Something in the realm of 10-6 or 13-7. But the 20-17 overtime final had a little bit of everyting. Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall showing the future of great running backs, Dixon scampering for long runs, kickers scrambling for (and almost nailing) long field goals at the buzzer. In the end, it was Dixon throwing an overtime interception that seemed overdue. So Baltimore indeed won the game, but in a much different and more exciting fashion than anticipated.
• Only one question remains: who will win tonight's battle of the juggernauts? Just about 4 hours until kickoff, the line has New Orleans favored by 2 over New England. Hmmm, the last time the Patriots were slight underdogs in primetime....it sounds familiar. I'm not sure why. Something having to do with some coach making a big decision. Maybe I'll think of it later. But remember what I said about sticking to your guns? Here's an excerpt from Week 10's Sunday Smash...

"People are salivating about getting the Patriots and points. If the game is played in New England, the Pats would probably be laying three. That's how even it is. But the Colts have not lost, and they have Peyton Manning."

I'll say the same exact thing this week. Just substitute 'Saints' and 'Drew Brees' where applicable. Gotta stick to your guns. Saints 34, Patriots 28.

Sunday Smash- Week 12

Ok, right to business. Thirty minutes before kickoff and we gotta squeeze in this Smash.

To be honest, I exhausted much of my blogging mojo yesterday, as I recounted the St. Anthony's Turkey Bowl game. The complete story of the festivities can be found by clicking here. So the analysis will be light today, but tomorrow will be a comprehensive Monday Mash to make up for it, I promise.

Before the picks, let me just say a huge asterisk belongs next to my 'incorrect' upset perfiction of Thanksgiving. I picked a Lions team led by DAUNTE CULPEPPER to cover against the Packers. My heart sank when Matthew Stafford gamely made the start. And yes, he was very bad. The Lions and Giants go down, while the Cowboys cover easily. A 1-2 Thanksgiving...as Charlie Weis would say, "Not good enough." Today's picks will get us over the Mendoza line. So here we go!

The Locals
Panthers (+3) over Jets
Yeah, I said it. Maybe the Jets will win by 1 or 2 and this will be a win-won situation. But Kerry Rhodes being benched and Mark Sanchez now adapting a 3rd grade color-by-number play calling system, things are looking bleak in New York. Williams and Stewart will gash a defense that would sell their sould to have Kris Jenkins back.

Giants, lost to Denver on Thursday.

Around the NFL
Seahawks (-4) over Rams
Four points, Seattle? Really? Something's gotta give today as the Seahawks are 0-5 on the road and the Rams are 0-5 at home. Should be riveting. But four is not nearly enough for me to pick St. Louis. Can't do it.

Cardinals (+3) over Titans
Tennesee is absolutely rolling right now with Vince Young behind center. But you can be the hottest team in the league and still lose to Arizona (hell, you could also be the coldest team and still beat them.) Matt Leinart may start for Arizona...get the party started! But I believe in the --yes I'll pull this one out--the defending NFC champs to prevail.

Eagles (-10) over Redskins
Bonus points for Washington because their starting running back today is named Rock. But it won't help them much on the field, as the Eagles should have that spread covered by the second quarter.

Dolphins (-4) over Bills
Ricky Williams, supernova. The Bills will be helpless trying to contain the now-traditional Miami running attack. Owens and Evans may get a few long gains on a weak secondary, but the Dolphins will eat up the clock and score late to cover.

Upset Perfiction of the Week
Texans (+4) over Colts
Down goes Manning! Down goes Manning! It seems like Houston has been waiting for this game since the franchise's existance. How many times can they possible lose by 1 or 2 points to Indy? It all ends today. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and a little bit of Steve Slaton put everything into this effort, and they're able to beat the Colts at thier own game. I think....

Enjoy the games, see you tomorrow.

A Thanksgiving Feast

I have to admit, I had a plan for this post a few days ago. It was going to be the reasons the Jets should bench Mark Sanchez right here and now. I was going to list the reasons (same mistakes over and over, the media is really going to be out for blood soon, the Jets veterans can't keep their poker faces much longer with each and every rookie mistake, etc.) and arrive at a somber conclusion.

But we're in a holiday season. Sports should not bring us down (too much.) There's always next week to tell the Jets how to run the franchise. For now, we will do a Sunday Smash, Thursday Edition. It's the ever-elusive Thursday Thrash. So without further ado, here is a mid-week picks section for today's Thanksgiving matchups. Just gobble, baby.

Cowboys (-13.5) over Raiders
Tony Romo and the whole Dallas offense has played like, well, turkeys. Oakland actually has pretty good numbers defending the pass. But if the Cowboys have shown us anything this year, it's to expect the unexpected. Marion Barber tears up Oakland early on, and Romo shreds them late to pull away.

Giants (-6.5) over Broncos
If you've fancied this blog during the season, you probably notice the trend that I always pick against the Broncos. Their week 1 win was an insane fluke, and I have unfairly held it against them to this day. It's not like I hate them. I don't. But ever since that crazy win...I've just continually expected a fall. The Giants, despite beating Atlanta, clearly haven't escaped their swoon either. Kyle Orton is back for the Broncos, but I see a combination of him having rust and trying to do too much, leading to turnovers. It will be a close one, but I can see the Giants getting in the endzone late. They will keep pace with Dallas in the division.

Upset Perfiction of Thanksgiving
Lions (+11) over Packers
It's right there in line with the other Thanksgiving traditions: Hope, against hope, that the Lions can somehow win their annual Thanksgiving game. I started following football cohesively in the late 1990's, so the Lions being awful is pretty much all I have known. This year is no different, as they are given eleven points. This is the team that scored 38 last week! Oh yeah, it was against Cleveland. But there's something really special going on here: Matthew Stafford hurt his shoulder in that game. That's right, big ol' Daunte Culpepper is in line to get the start for Detroit. There's something about Daunte Culpepper playing on a day that celebrates food that makes me feel wrong to pick against him. You can do it, Lions.


Now for the return of What About Conor Wednesday. What's it been, 2 months or so? Preposterous. Here's a quickie in honor of Turkey Day. In reverse order, Conor's top-5 Thanksgiving foods. To make thinks interesting, I have excluded turkey from consideration. It's a given...

5. Cranberry Sauce
Delicious, yes. But penalized a bit because it lacks ability to 'stand on its own.' More of a complimentary deliciousness.

4. Yams with Marshmallow
I used to think it was gross. Then I tried them, and I've never looked back.

3. Apple Cider
In a weird way, it's the most exclusive 'Thanksgiving food' that I know. How often does one have apple cider??

2. Stuffing
I still don't know what it's made of. But they are all scrumptious.

1. Mashed Potatoes
The classic. I never have a bite of turkey without some potatoes mixed in. Doesn't get any better.

Thanks for reading. Happy Thanksgiving!

Monday Mash- Week 11

After the picks section went 0-6 in week 10, the NFL's week 11 has now come and gone. And I have just one word...

WOOOOOO!

Well, kinda. 5-2 is woo-worthy, no? The Cowboys didn't even come close to their spread, so that was a bad one. But the Giants had a 6-1 record absolutely gift-wrapped for me. A full touchdown lead evaporated in the final seconds, and the overtime period guaranteed they wouldn't be able to cover. The Vikings (emphatically), Colts (barely) and Patriots (damn it) all covered as favorites while my two 'dogs (Browns and Bills) both covered despite losing. Actually, both lost in such heartbreaking fashion... I'm worried I put a hideous curse on them.

Let's take a look at the locals. It wasn't pretty, but the Giants were willing to take any kind of win they could get yesterday. Sure, they spit up every opportunity they had to bury Atlanta. Sure, Eli Manning's gaudy numbers are quite deceiving considering how uncomfortable he was all game. And sure, Falcons star running back Michael Turner was injured and Big Blue let the backup run somewhat-wild. But they got the win in the end. They kept pace with the Eagles and Cowboys, whose wins (Dallas particularly) were just as ugly as the Giants'. Though there's tons of work ahead, the Giants live to play another week.

While the Giants live to play, we now visit the tomb of the New York Jets' season. It was a somewhat up-and-down game, in the sense of how much the Pats would win by. It looked like they would win by 40, then about 25, then very briefly about 7, then the final score dictated a 17-point win. The fallen Sanchize (more on him later in the week) did his best to keep the game anti-close with another 5 turnovers in the game.

Games like this present some very interesting thoughts in a fan's head. Once the Patriots had the early interception returned for a touchdown, any Jets fan that's watched for the last month knew the game was absolutely, utterly over. It didn't matter how early it was. The game was over. It's a unique feeling. Normally, every time I watch a game, I focus on that game. You know, what they can do to win. But when you're sure that the game (and your playoff chances) are all up in smoke, here are some (factual) snippets of what ran through my brain...

• Hmmm, I wish I watched college football more often. Then I'd know what players are between 10th and 20th best and can be excited to picture them as a Jet next year.
• If the Jets, for absolutely no reason, named Kellen Clemens as a starting quarterback after week 3, what would their record be? 7-3? 8-2 perhaps?
• If I change over to Bride Wars on HBO, but it's 15 minutes after it began, will I still be able to get the central idea and themes of the movie?

It's not really an enjoyable experience. You do irrational things such as criticize every single call by the officials. (For the record, though, I'm still rationally irritated by two calls: Leigh Bodden's Mortal Kombat uppercut to Braylon Edwards as he tried to catch a long ball and Bodden again for roughing up Sanchez on that last interception. The Liu Kang fatality on Edwards is a moot point because the Jets got a touchdown anyway. But the other one still kind of bothers me. The announcers didn't talk about it yesterday, and nobody seems to be talking about it today, so maybe I'm still irrational. You can see the play by clicking here and decide for yourself. You can see it a little bit at the :26-:27 mark, but the best angle is at the :39-:40 mark, as number 23 (Bodden) comes in and absolutely launches his whole body to put the wallop on Mr. Sanchez. In a season that's been loaded with ticky tack roughing the passer penalties (with Tom Brady being the king,) I was quite surprised and disappointed not to see some flags there. would the Jets have won the game if it had been called? Hardly. But a 10-point game with 10 minutes left and the Jets driving with momentum...it certainly would have made things more interesting.)

But it wasn't meant to be. The New England offense moved consistently on the Jets via the short pass (another excellent job by Darelle Revis not letting Moss get any monster gains.) While the Pats offense clicked, Sanchez gave them everything they needed otherwise. At 4-6, at least the Jets can go about their business quietly (for a change) and perhaps play spoiler. Sanchez will take more lumps and hopefully learn from them. Though it's bitter after a 3-0 start, it's better than being a team completely in turmoil (St. Louis, Cleveland, etc.)

Here's the rest of the juicy stuff from week 11...

The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Matthew Stafford, Lions. How ya doin, rookie? In yesterday's pick section, I felt I "had to pick" the Browns-Lions game. That was sarcasm for how ghastly the game was supposed to be. Both teams came into the game woeful. The result? Why the game of the week, of course! The Lions grasp the victory on an un-timed play at the end of the game. (The reason? Why an unnecessary pass interference on the last-second hail mary of course! You're the best, Cleveland.) But Stafford took advantage, throwing his FIFTH TOUCHDOWN OF THE DAY. (Has Sanchez thrown five in the last month??) Second place for this award went to the other quarterback in the Lions-Browns game! Brady Quinn threw for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns, which just missed Stafford's 422 and 5 scores. Yes, over 725 yards passing and nine touchdowns in the Stafford-Quinn shootout. And we're told that the NBA is where amazing happens...

• In Reilly Sports Blog fantasy team news, Tony Romo might have done just enough to win this week. Though it was disgusting (he should have torched Washington) he did throw a score in the end. Team Clean Sanchez (and the Cowboys) keep pace with the pack.
• I'm sorry it's taken so long to get to this...but how bout those upsets yesterday? The Raiders, already victors over the Eagles this year, stun the Bengals at the buzzer. Let the theories about Larry Johnson, locker room cancer, begin! In an even bigger shocker, the hapless Chiefs drop the hammer on the Steelers?? I know Cedric Benson and Troy Polamalu are out for Cinci and Pit, but those defeats are real shockers.
• The Chargers beat the living garbage out of Denver to take control of the division. Honestly...I wasn't the only one but...I told ya so.
  
• Terrell Owens went for 197 yards catching. Of course the Bills didn't win. It's a hate-hate relationship.
• It's becoming extremely clear that the Colts are not going for style points here. Who knew a 10-0 team could still be the cardiac kids? It's insane the Ravens are now just 5-5.
• The Saints are also perfect after blasting Tampa. Next Monday against the Patriots is going to be something.
• But this Monday night? Tennessee at Houston. The Texans are favored by 4. Steve Slaton is the man again at running back for Houston, and I gotta ride with my guy. Tennessee is dangerous, but the Texans find a way. Houston 24, Tennessee 16.

Thanks for dropping by!

Sunday Smash- Week 11

What a long week it was for the blog.

Rex Ryan crying, Mark Sanchez writing a post-game speech, Kerry Rhodes Tweet-campaigning for a Pro Bowl spot while being invisible all year. The Jets have done enough damage. The disastrous picks section last week was just the cherry on top.

I have taken plenty of showers this week, but I still can't shake off the stink of 0-6. I'm desperately trying to figure out what went wrong. Did I rush them? Did I overthink them? Did i type them out while walking under a ladder? I can't be certain (except about the last one.) But Sunday has finally arrived, and for week 11 I am 0-0. I got some fantastic news last night for my fantasy football league, as my top pick Steve Slaton--a player I deemed to be 4th best in the league--is finally off the Texans' bench! The tide has already begun to turn. I finally have hope. And hope is a good thing.

So let's ride this momentum train right into the picks section. And this baby's running express. Though the tragic events of week 10 can never be erased from our memories, I'm certain these week 11 picks will go a long way towards alleviating the pain. Just cover, baby.

The Locals
Giants (-7) over Falcons
Admittedly, this line was rather eye-popping when I first saw it. The Giants have been porous for several weeks now, but they have to feed off that huge boost they got last week during their bye. Atlanta has all kinds of problems, and tends to get really uncomfortable on the road.

Patriots (-11) over Jets
This game would be exponentially-more compelling if New York didn't wet the bed against the Jaguars last week. The Jets were talked about for all the wrong reasons this week, and the Pats still have smoke coming out of their ears from their Monday night debacle. I can see the Jets starting off inspired, maybe trailing by 3 or 4 at the half. After that? Oy.

Across the NFL
Cowboys (-11) over Redskins
That astronomical line is begging people to take the underdog 'Skins. Dallas was terrbible last week while Washington put the hammer on Denver. Both teams are due to return to their normal performances.

Vikings (-10.5) over Seahawks
Another meaty point spread. It was between this game or the Saints-Bucs game for which (10.5) spread I would pick. But Seattle won't know what to do against the Viking defense.

Browns (+3) over Lions
Gotta pick this one, right? For one game...just one game, the Brownswill find a way not to play so, well, brown. That's all I can say about that.

Colts (-1.5) over Ravens
I will not cast the first stone for picking Indy's first loss. It should have some on Monday. Though they are 9-0, their record should read 8.5-0.5 instead. But I'm not picking against Manning.

Upset Perfiction of the Week
Bills (+8.5) over Jaguars
This one just jumped out at me for reasons I'm not totally sure of. The Jaguars can probably run for 300+ yards on Buffalo, and maybe that will move the game along enough to keep it close. Yes, the same Bills team that kept last week's game close...until giving up 24 in the 4th. Times change.

Enjoy the games.

I Have...The Powa!

Well, it's mid-November 2009, and there's not much joy in Reilly Sports Blog-ville. The blog will have to drown its sadness in a whole bunch of turkey and apple cider come next week. After all, the Jets are not yet out of their swoon at 4-5, and find themselves as 11-point 'dog at New England this week. The Mets are trying to woo Roy Halladay out of Canada to save their seemingly-in-turmoil franchise. The Knicks are...well, moving on. I thought I'd be in my mid-50's before the Islanders could be the saving grace among my teams.

But look what we have here! Of course, nobody is aware, but these Isles aren't (that) bad! Sure they are in last place. But they're also just one point away from third place in an excellent division. We are more than a quarter of the way through the season and the New York Islanders would be a playoff team if the season ended today. Forward Kyle Okposo may be playing his way onto Team USA in the upcoming Olympics. With Okposo possibly playing for the Americans and defenseman Mark Streit leading the Swiss team, the Isles may even get some international buzz come February. For a team and fans that thought they'd be counting the days until the 2010 draft, things are looking pretty bright.
(I know, I know, the Lighthouse Project...throw the Isles fan a rare bone on this one.)

So we have a hodgepodge of NY sports stories to throw around. But we'll keep the focus on the NFL. No storyline hops out too much (Rex Ryan's tears, Jick Jauron's pink slip, Jerome Bettis laying the verbal smackdown on Bill Belichick are all mild headlines) so we will do something everyone can enjoy: NFL Power Rankings! It's a desperate move for a blog, maybe. But you have to do a couple of these once in a while, right? We'll do it from worst to first because it's more fun that way. We'll include the team's record, a little comment, and the Reilly Sports Blog's exclusive playoff odds. They are calculated using advanced mathematics combined with gut feeling. (Ok, there's no math involved ...try to enjoy them anyway.)

When Does the Offseason Start?

32. Cleveland Browns (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
The Browns have scored 78 points in 9 games this year. The Patriots have put up 59 in one game.
31. St. Louis Rams (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
The blog predicted a 1-15 record before the season. With one win already, the drama is building.
30. Oakland Raiders (2-7) Playoff Chance: 0%
Oakland's 2 wins only mean that they are heading for a deceivingly-low draft pick in April.
29. Detroit Lions (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
Thank goodness they finally got their victory, because they've had some tough luck with injuries.
28. Kansas City Chiefs (2-7) Playoff Chance: 0%
Getting rid of Larry Johnson is a good step. Their management will know what to do with high draft picks.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) Playoff Chance: 0%
Josh Freeman is looking promising at quarterback. They shouldn't be underestimated, despite the record.

Going Through the (Losing) Motions

26. Buffalo Bills (3-6) Playoff Chance: 3%
Fired their offensive coordinator before the season, fired head coach mid-season. Guess you can't fire T.O.
25. Washington Redskins (3-6) Playoff Chance: 5%
If not for a win over Denver they may be 5 spots lower. The NFC East division will be merciless.
24. Seattle Seahawks (3-6) Playoff Chance: 18%
A weak division causes a bump in playoff chances. They are among the NFL's biggest disappointments
23. Chicago Bears (4-5) Playoff Chance: 10%
Speaking of disappointments...the Bears (especially Cutler/Forte) have let down across the board.
22. Tennessee Titans (3-6) Playoff Chance: 14%
One of the most dangerous teams moving forward. Chris Johnson will be a nightmare for all defenses.

Hanging By a Thread

21. San Francisco 49ers (4-5) Playoff Chance: 26%
Like Seattle, they're never dead in the NFC West. Tough schedule will likely doom them, though.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) Playoff Chance: 26%
A win over the Jets kept them afloat, but 5-4 looks quite deceiving for them. Love Jones-Drew, though.
19. Houston Texans (5-4) Playoff Chance: 31%
They're better than a lot of teams that I rank higher, but the wild card is now their only option.
18. Carolina Panthers (4-5) Playoff Chance: 31%
Exact same situation as the Texans. They are the NFC's version.
17. New York Jets (4-5) Playoff Chance: 39%
If they win at new England this week, that percentage bumps up 10%. A loss, it goes down 39%.
16. Miami Dolphins (4-5) Playoff Chance: 39%
Same record and a better divisional record than the Jets. One more game against NE will decide their chances.

Ah, Ah, Ah, Ah, Stayin' Alive

15. Atlanta Falcons (5-4) Playoff Chance: 46%
Their talent cannot be denied. But Matt Ryan is hitting some bumps he hasn't faced as a pro yet.
14. Green Bay Packers (5-4) Playoff Chance: 44%
This team can beat anyone or lose to anyone. They're not catching Minnesota but the wild card is there.
13. Baltimore Ravens (5-4) Playoff Chance: 44%
They're in a cut-throat division, and they may have buried themselves too deep already.
12. New York Giants (5-4) Playoff Chance: 50%
They got some serious help during their bye, now they must take things into their own hands.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) Playoff Chance: 50%
They picked the wrong time for their mini-swoon, but they and the Giants are right there if Dallas trips.

Sitting Pretty

10. Denver Broncos (6-3) Playoff Chance: 51%
When will the bleeding stop? That win over San Diego earlier this year helps them tremendously.
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-3) Playoff Chance: 60%
They had a real chance to pull away last week. After a brutal loss to GB, they're barely hanging on.
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) Playoff Chance: 70%
The division is their's if they want it. As you can see, I believe there is a 70% chance that they do.
7. San Diego Chargers (6-3) Playoff Chance: 60%
The blog's projected AFC Champs! That win over the Eagles was a big boost. They'll pass Denver.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) Playoff Chance: 65%
They are solid everywhere, but another Polamalu injury is a killer. Cincinnati swept them.

Get Out of Their Way

5. New England Patriots (6-3) Playoff Chance: 75%
There's only so many games they can win in spite of you, Bill Belichick. Jeez.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) Playoff Chance: 75%
Every casual football fan is hoping that Cedric Benson's injury doesn't derail this magic carpet.
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-1) Playoff Chance: 90%
Brett Favre has only three interceptions. The Jets might truly be cursed.
2. New Orleans Saints (9-0) Playoff Chance: 100%
Close call against the Rams was oogly, but the other 8 games were convincing.
1. Indianapolis Colts (9-0) Playoff Chance: 100%
If they could win that game Sunday night, you tell me what game they can't win.


Hope you enjoyed that. That was too long to provide a WAC Wednesday. Look for that next week. See you this weekend for the games.

Monday Mash- Week 10

Thanks for coming on back to the show. Pop quiz question for week 10:

Q: Who had the most productive week 10 in the National Football League

(A.) The New York Jets, 7-point favorites playing at home against Jacksonville.
(B.) The Reilly Sports Blog pick section, coming off a scintillating 5-1 mark in Week 9.
(C.) The New York Giants, bye week.

The overwhelming, uproarious correct answer--your New York football Giants! You get a week off, then sit back and watch Philly and Dallas spit up their divisional lead! Big Blue was left for dead after losing four straight games, but now find themselves in somewhat of a driver's seat when it comes to the playoffs. Sure, they must improve their play drastically, but this was the easiest way to make up ground in football history.

As for the other two options on the pop quiz....whoa boy. Ohhhh doggy. It was a bad omen when the first play of the Jet game was Mark Sanchez interception. It was a worse omen when Maurice Jones-Drew didn't seem to have a run under 6 yards the entire game. It was the worst omen when Jones-Drew, with the Jets hoping and begging him to score a touchdown, went down at the goal line to prevent the Jets from getting the ball back. A field goal as time expired and boom, 24-22 Jags win. Jets fall to 4-5. From 3-0 to 4-5. That's a spicy meatball.

And the Reilly Sports Blog pick section? Well, an even spicier meatball. Something like this comes to mind. The first goose egg in blog history...0-6. I picked 4 favorites and only one of them (Indy) won the freakin' game! (We'll get to that phenomenal game in a moment.) The upset perfiction was the only one I came close on, as the Seahawks were given 9 points but lost by 11. Bummer. To be fair, I picked the Bills (+8) and they were actually looking pretty good...until the 4th quarter, when they realized they were the Bills and gave up 24 unanswered to close the game. Add in the Cowboys and Broncos both wetting the bed and, boom 0-6. So in conclusion, the emphatic answer to the pop quiz was the Giants. If someone told me the answer 36 hours ago, vomit would rain from above. Viva Los Jets. Viva El Reilly Sports Blog.

Here's the rest from week 10...

The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Bill Belichick, Patriots. And viva Bill Belichick! I was going to throw a curveball for this award and give it to defensive player Charles Woodson. He played tremendous against the Cowboys, forcing many a turnover. Woodson had it locked up until oh, about 11:00pm. He came so close. But then Bill Belichick changed it all. Every fan that saw their team lose in week 10...every fan that's had a losing season and looks for the rare moments this season that give them joy...VINDICATION! The Patriots went down to their bitter rival in a historical fashion. I'm assuming every blog reader is well aware of Belichick's immortal decision, so I'll save the blog space. But in the end, he defied the football karma. The script was written for Peyton Manning to have the ball deep in his own territory, and see if he could drive one more time on the Pats. Belichick made a decision that defied the script. There's no way the football gods would let the Pats two measly yards and let the game end anticlimactically. Not gonna happen. Not even for his highness. Thus ends the longest Delicious Performace summary in history. In case you couldn't tell, it made me a bit giddy.

• Though Belichick's blunder stole the show, the game was a real treat last night. Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne proved their both downright un-coverable when they want to be. Literally, the quarterbacks were equal, down to the final minute. Yesterday, Peyton Manning won the war. But those that tuned in to watch the entire game are hoping for another one come playoff time.
• The best team so far in the NFC (New Orleans) almost gave it up to the Rams. I almost wonder which team the NFL was rooting for. They want to see the Saints go as far as they can undefeated, but an upset like that makes every game viable for the rest of the season.
• In the battle of legs, team Hard Knocks took down the defending-champion Steelers for the second time this season. Once the Jets are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, there's no doubt which team the Blog will endorse come playoff time. Unless Larry Johnson comes in and acts like Angelina Jolie-Ohno.
• The Eagles/Chargers game was pretty darn entertaining, with Brian Westbrook's concussion being a backbreaker for Philly. As entertaining as San Diego's win was in a positive way, the Chiefs beating the Raiders was entertaining in a somewhat gross way.
• The Jets were 8-3 when Brett Favre began his swoon last year. The Vikings are now 8-1, praying there will be no swoon to speak of. Them and the Saints are really starting to break away from everyone else in the conference.
  
• Definitive team on the way down: Denver. Definitive team that's hot and doesn't want you to know it: Carolina! Look out for Jake the Snake.
• Not the best matchup on Monday night. The Ravens take on the Browns on Cleveland's dawg pound. The line is Baltimore by 12. I want to say that the Browns will cover. But hey, I have a mindset this week that got me to 0-6. Say I'm laying the points. Baltimore 31, Cleveland 10
  

Sunday Smash- Week 10

Welcome back to the show. The transition is now complete from baseball to football (along with hockey and basketball.) Boy, has this NFL season flown by, as here we are in week 10 already. Now's the time fans (and probably players) start taking a peak at remaining schedules to gauge their postseason chances. Teams that flew out of the gate (Denver, NY Giants) start coming back to earth, while the early disappointments (Carolina, Tennessee) may be doing some serious spoiling for the contenders.

Yes, the playoff push has begun. The Jets, realistically, have only a faint chance of sniffing the playoffs. A win against Jacksonville today would allow them to stay the course. A loss, though, and they will simply be grouped along with those 'playing spoiler' for the rest of the season. The Giants are on a bye, and have a week where they must examine every aspect of their team to figure out what on earth happened to them. Along with trying to fix themselves, they will have their pom poms out, cheering on the Chargers to beat the Eagles and the Packers to beat the Cowboys.

There's a brief outlook for the New York teams. Let's get to the picks, which are absolutely sizzling after going 5-1 last week. The pressure is building and the bar is being raised. the blog is ready to live up. Just cover, baby.

The Locals
Jets (-7) over Jaguars
The Jets can still barely sniff that division title. It's just a little whiff, and it's a little stinky, but they can sniff it. A win today and a New England loss to Indy makes that smell a lot more pungent. They can't let this one get away.

Bye week for the Giants.

Across the NFL
Cowboys (-3) over Packers
The Cowboys are going to frosty Green Bay to play an extremely desperate team. The Packers are playing for a lot more than Dallas (coach's job, quarterback's mental health, etc.) But Tony Romo and the fellas are on a roll. Until someone stops it, the blog's gotta roll with it.

Broncos (-4) over Redskins
Denver has played rather poorly the last two weeks. Washington has played rather poorly since the Clinton administration.

Bills (+8) over Titans
I'm not thrilled with this one, but 8 points just seems too high. The Titans can't cover anyone, so maybe this is Terrell Owens' one "stand" for the year, where everyone wonders for a couple of minutes if he can still be a top player. He can't. But Owens along with Lee Evans may keep this one within a touchdown.

Colts (-3) over Patriots
I had to take a home team somewhere, right? People are salivating about getting the Patriots and points. And the Indy secondary is pretty beat up. If the game is played in New England, the Pat's would probably be laying three. That's how even it is. But the Colts have not lost and have Peyton Manning, who's making room on the mantle for another MVP award.

Upset Perfiction of the Week
Seahawks (+9) over Cardinals
Arizona will either win this game by more than 14 points, or they will lose. Welcome to your 2009 Cardinals! Kurt Warner regresses a bit from his ridiculous performance last week, and Seattle makes the divisional race interesting.

Enjoy the games!

State of the Jets- Midseason Report

Well, we are pretty much at the midway point of the NFL season. The Jets have a convenient bye week...right smack in the middle. We will take a look at the Giants next week during their week off. But this week its all about Gang Green and their season thus far. First, a pure recap of what we've seen to this point:

Wins:
Week 1 @ Houston
Week 2 vs. New England
Week 3 vs. Tennessee
Week 7 @ Oakland

Losses:
Week 4 @ New Orleans
Week 5 @ Miami
Week 6 vs. Buffalo
Week 8 vs. Miami

There it is. 4-4, middle of the road. The wins (Oakland aside) are impressive, but the losses overshadow them greatly. The team that beat New England should never lose to the Bills or both Dolphins games. One perhaps to Miami, but not both. So at first glance, fans would love to see that record at 6-2 instead of 4-4.

But you are what your record says you are. And here's how they stacked up through eight games.

Offense
All the talk going into the season was about quarterback Mark Sanchez. Could he be the next Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco and actually make the playoffs? Or would he go down the road most rookie QB's take--struggle at first and learn the ropes. After looking like option #1 the first three weeks, he has fallen back to earth very, very quickly. Two losses are squarely on his right shoulder (Saints, Bills.) That means he's on pace to lose 4 games on his own which, actually, sounds about right for a rookie. Sanchez may have taken a step back from his first few weeks, but there are not very many people saying the Jets made a mistake in the draft.

At running back, the season took a drastic, gloomy turn when Leon Washington broke his leg. With him gone for the year, rookie Shonn Greene has been thrust into a meaningful role quicker than anyone thought. He has looked promising thusfar. But the team's offensive MVP so far has been Thomas Jones. Everyone predicted a big drop from last year's numbers, but Jones is in the NFL's top 10 for rushing yards and top 5 for rushing touchdowns. Fullback Tony Richardson has been invaluable is the blocking scheme. And with the offensive line is picking it up after a slow start, and the running attack looks to be in a great spot going forward.

In the receiver spot, Jerricho Cotchery looked phenomenal early in the season, trying to dismiss the rumors the Jets needed a true #1 wideout. He then got banged up and, well, the Jets acquired who they hope to be their true #1 receiver. Braylon Edwards came over from Cleveland and has looked sharp thusfar. Jets fans hope that once Cotchery is 100% healthy, Sanchez will have two quality recieivers on the outside, along with tight end Dustin Keller down the middle. Keller has done well when Sanchez finds him open, but most fans agree that he hasn't been found nearly enough. Other pass catchers Brad Smith and David Clowney have been used very sparingly.

Defense
It seems like there are hundreds of different ways to evaluate a team's defense. For what it's worth, the Jets have the second best D in terms of yards against, giving up 1 more yard per game than the first-ranked Giants. Keep in mind, however, that the Jets and Giants combined have just a 9-8 record. So we must take defensive yardage statistics with a grain of salt.

The 'points against' stats are far more fascinating. The Jets are 4th in the NFL with a tremendous 16.8 points against per game. Every other team in the top 7 of this category (Colts, Pats, Broncos, Bengals, Steelers, Cowboys) have a record of 6-2 or better. Except for the 4-4 Jets. The reasons? The kid quarterback and a game lost solely due to the special teams unit we will discuss soon.

All things considered, the defense has more than held up their end of the bargain. The one road contest against Miami is the only game in which they played 'poorly.' Against Buffalo they weren't great, but were good enough. Besides that, Rex Ryan has installed a unit that keeps the Jets in every game they play. You can't ask for much more than that from a defense. But a huge drawback hit the unit when Kris Jenkins tore his knee up. He's the real engine of the defense and to call him irreplaceable is an understatement. The stars of the unit (Revis, Rhodes, Harris, Scott) have to pick up their play even more to try to contain this devastating loss.

Special Teams
Certainly an unheralded aspect of football, but the Jets got a bigtime eye-opener of how important it is. Miami's Ted Ginn brought back 2 kick returns against the Jets that were the difference in the game. It's an absolute nightmare to lose a game with special teams being a primary reason. If the Jets had beaten the Dolphins at home, they would be right in the thick of the playoff race. Instead, they are a middle of the road team that is ensured a bad divisional record. Special teams coach Mike Westhoff is too good to have this unit lose another game on its own, but sometimes just one game can be the difference between the playoffs and the golf course.

Leon Washington's injury hurts special teams along with the offense. Neon Leon has made the Pro Bowl as a kick returner, and his presence will be missed. Hoping to capture some magic of the past, Gang Green brought back Justin Miller to return kicks. Though it was a short-lived era, Miller's knack for a big return did wonders for the Jets back in the day. They hope he can find it again.

As far as the legs, Jay Feely has missed a couple of field goals lately, but he can be trusted. He's in the NFL's top 10 in both kicks made and kick percentage. The Jets knew they wouldn't have a good punter this season, and Steve Weatherford really hasn't boomed too many memorable ones. He's kept things entertaining with some successful fakes, though.


So there's a brief look at how the Jets have gotten to where they are. Here's what they face the rest of the way:

Vs. Jacksonville (4-4)
@ New England (6-2)
Vs. Carolina (3-5)
@ Buffalo (3-5)
@ Tampa Bay (1-7)
Vs. Atlanta (5-3)
@ Indianapolis (8-0)
Vs. Cincinnati (6-2)

Overall, it's proabably not the scariest remaining schedule in the NFL. But boy is it loaded near the end. Simply put, the matchups against Jacksonville, Carolina, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay are games the Jets MUST HAVE. It's a roll of the dice in the other four games, including the Jets probably being significant underdogs against the Colts and Patriots. But if they take care of business against the weaker teams, it gives them sole leeway against the big boys.

Let's look specifically at the very-near future. The Jets tail New England by 2 games in the division. But the Patriots play the undefeated Colts this Sunday. If the Jets can beat the Jaguars and the Colts defeat the Pats, the lead shrinks to one game. Wouldn't you know it, the Patriots host Gang Green the very next week. So if things bounce the right way, the Jets have with a chance to come out of New England tied for first place. After the sometimes-glorious, sometimes-miserable 4-4 start, you couldn't ask for much more.

Monday Mash- Week 9

Welcome back to the show. Sorry I wasn't able to expand upon the picks section yesterday. Simply no time to do so. We'll be better next week.

With that said...WHAT A PICK SECTION IT WAS!

Out of the 6 picks, we took 5 underdogs ranging from 3 points to 10 points, and all of them won outright. Chargers, Bengals, Cowboys, and the Upset Perficted- Bucs all take care of business. The only blemish was Indy not covering the meaty 9-point gap over Houston. Maybe a rushed, non-explained strategy is the key to successful picking. Preparation is overrated.

For the last month, the New York Giants have seemed to take on that same mindset: preparation is overrated. Based on the team's defensive reputation, it would seem they have scored enough points to win over this span. 27, 17, 17, and 20 are not exactly power outages by the offense. But they were never truly alive in the games against New Orleans and Philly, the offense had its blunders against Arizona, and yesterday the defense could not prevent San Diego's offense from going 80 yards in under 2 minutes for the winning touchdown. Usually, a Giants defense feasts on the opportunity to slam the door, deliver the dagger, seal the deal, what have you.

But it was not to be. The Chargers--like the Saints, Cardinals, and Eagles before them--decided to throw, throw, throw right down Big Blue's throat. Philip Rivers had all the time he needed, and nobody could cover. It was as heartbreaking as losses get for the Giants...work hard and earn a 6 point lead for 58 minutes only to see it all evaporate in what seemed like 2 seconds instead of 2 minutes. The Giants now go into their bye a wounded 5-4 team.

With Dallas going up to 6-2 last night, I think the division is now up in smoke for the G-Men. After their bye, they host an Atlanta team fighting for the same wild card position as them. Win, and I think they're fine. Lose, and thoughts should start about the 2010 season. Pretty unbelievable stuff after a 5-0 start.

The rest from week 9:

The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Kurt Warner, Cardinals. Earlier in the week I posted a blog about fantasy football and its occasional cruelty. This week, the guy that I played had Kurt Warner. Sometimes, an individual player can deliver a "Thanks for coming" performace for a fantasy team. When I saw Warner's line of 261 yards and 5 TD's, it is a quick acceptance of a fantasy loss. It hurts, but the rest of the day watching football is rather relaxing and enjoyable. So thanks, Kurt. Ya jerk.

• Viva Josh Freeman! Who, you ask? The rookie quarterback that takes an 0-7 Bucs team playing with house money and beats down the Packers. 205 yards and 3 scores made him the runner-up for the MBDPotW. Good for Tampa, distasterous for...Green (do people ever call it that?) No excuses or explanation for this meltdown as the Pack led going into the 4th quarter.
• In what was sure to be the game of the week, Dallas took down Philly for first place in the division. It was kind of a ho-hum game, but Miles Austin got lost just one time in the Eagles' secondary, and it decided the game.
  
• I really think the Saints are just playing around now. "Guys, let's see how big of a lead we can give teams before making a comeback. Over/Under 17, who's in?" The Panthers sprinted out early, but the Saints, as always, pull away late. After throw-aways against the Rams and Bucs, that Monday nighter in week 12 against New England must be sticking out on their schedule like a nun at an Iron Maiden concert.
• Speaking of those pesky Pats, they do what the Jets could not...beat the Dolphins. Miami faught valiently and will be tough in every game they play the rest of the year, but too much Tommy and Randy. Next up, the undefeated Peyton and the Colts.
• The Colts stayed unbeaten by way of a Kris Brown missed field goal. With 'Kris' spelled that way, I want to know who didn't see that coming.
• On to the stool of the NFL. We were spared from the Rams, Browns, and Raiders this week. But the Redskins were happy to get Atlanta back on track, the Lions boosted Seattle's confidence, and the Chiefs lost to Jacksonville before fulfilling fans' wishes and getting rid of role model Larry Johnson. Yes, that's role model Larry Johnson. One more time, role model Larry Johnson. With Tennessee's decisive win over San Francisco, I have hereby excused them from the NFL's stool section. Replacing them? The Chicago Bears. I don't care what the record says. Another blowout loss, courtesy of Warner and the Cards.
• Hard Knocks! Cincinnati takes down Baltimore and sits atop the tough AFC North division. I loved the Bengals going into this season. I struggled through picking the Texans to make the playoffs instead of them. Though I expected a lot, they have absolutely blown me away with that 6-2 record. And one of those losses was the Denver fluke in week 1. Their game at Pittsburgh next Sunday is sure to be the game of the week.
• But before Pittsburgh gets there, they face a tough road test tonight in Denver. Broncos are 6-1, Steelers are at 5-3. Pit is getting 3 points in this game...I guess people think that the Ravens really exposed something in Denver last week. While the Broncos can afford a loss or two, Pittsburgh is playing for its season, and it will show. Steelers 23, Broncos 15.

Thanks for reading, enjoy the game.

Sunday Smash Week 9- Cliff Note Edition

Off to work this morning, not sure about internet access there. If I can log in I will expand on these. But here are the picks for week 9.

Locals
Chargers (+6) over Giants

The Jets are on a bye. (But to set the record straight, the blog does not support jokes that suggest the 'bye' is favored to win over the Jets. I will not put Bye (-10) over Jets. That's something that i will not do.)

Around the NFL
Titans (+5) over 49ers

Bengals (+3) over Ravens

Colts (-9) over Texans

Cowboys (+3) over Eagles

Upset Perfiction of the Week
Buccaneers (+10) over Packers

A Fantasy Tale

Thanks so much for graciously returning to the Reilly Sports Blog. We will get to the Smash before kickoff tomorrow. But there is just one story I wish to narrate. I was going to give this its own blog post in the middle of the week, but those silly guys in pinstripes got in the way. This will have to do.

The cautionary triumphant tale revolves around the ever-expanding world of fantasy football. I remember playing before I was even in high school, so it's something I've done for about ten years now. I have loosely mapped out my experience to a process that I believe everyone goes through...

• First two years: Hey, this is fun! Maybe my team can compete and win a few games!
• Year 3: Man, my team finishes better every year! This is easier than it seems.
• Year 4: Finish in last place.
  
• Years 5-7: Go back to basics and tread mediocrity, trying to find the secrets of fantasy success.
  
• Years 8-9: A great amount of pride hinges on the success of your team. You've played far too long now not to win consistently.
• Year 10: Something (surely demonic) possesses you to wager $250 on a fantasy football league.

And that's how it goes. Lost in all of this of course, is the age-old conflicts between your fantasy team and your real life team. If I don't draft players from the Jets, they can do great in real life, but it's bittersweet because they may burn you in fantasy. Draft your guys, and all the sudden you want some of your favorite players to do better than your other favorite players.

This is usually no problem. Real life will always trounce fantasy. A loss by Clean Sanchez can be laughed off if it means the New York Jets win. This is until you reach year 10 in the process described above.

Ya see, when you own Thomas Jones in year 10, you can't believe Mark Sanchez takes it on a bootleg from the 1 yard line. What a touchdown goblin! You find it absurd that they would ever put Shonn Greene into a game to hijack Jones' carries. You think it's bananas that they kick a field goal on 4th and goal from the 8. You say Jones can do it! He can do it!

That's the thing about year 10. And fantasy football in general. It is way, way too easy to blame everyone else in the weeks you lose. You want everything to revolve around your chosen players. Never mind there are millions and millions of other fantasy teams out there. If your guys don't get the ball at the right time, it's the most frustrating tragedy in the world.

Take last week for example. It's bad enough the Jets lost to the Dolphins. Again. But Steve Slaton gets me a total of (-1) points for the week. Now, back in August, I drafted Steve Slaton in the first round, #4 overall. Preferably, we're looking at 15-20 points per week at the value I drafted him. But he carries once, fumbles, gets benched, and is not heard of again the rest of the game.

Well, everyone else on my team and my opponent's team play, and it works out that at the end of Sunday, it is a tied fantasy matchup. Tied. On Monday night, my opponent had QB Matt Ryan playing (a projected lock for anywhere between 15-25 points) while I had my Hofstra-educated, sure-handed WR Marques Colston (anything above 10 points would be considered great.) I needed a player such as Slaton to give me a points lead going in, so maybe I would have a chance. But my #1 guy, the focal point of my team, got (-1) points. In other words, if my best player STAYED IN THE TEAM HOTEL AND NEVER EVEN WENT TO THE GAME, he would score 0 points, rather than (-1), and I would have a 1 point lead going into Monday.

These are the things you think about when fantasy games are close. "Why did my quarterback try to force that throw and get intercepted?" "How could my running back go down 6 inches short of the endzone?" "Couldn't that receiver get 50 freakin yards instead of 49?"

Such are the everlasting questions of fantasy football. In years 1-9 of the fantasy curve, you just shake your head and hope things go well the next week. But in year 10...these questions dismantle you. From head to toe. They eat away at your soul. Now Steve Slaton wouldn't know who I was if he stepped on me and I said "Excuse me, Steve, you're stepping on me, Conor Reilly." That's the relationship we have, yet he is able to ruin an entire Sunday of football for me.

It shouldn't be this way. Fantasy football should enhance the fan experience, not make it constantly tramatic. But there I was on Sunday and Monday afternoon, sulking about my surely-crippling loss and wondering where my $250 goes when it gets metaphorically flushed down the toilet.

But then Monday night came. And I was the prodigal son that came back to my beloved game. My guy Colston puts up numbers that are above and beyond what's expected, and I keep the game close as the Falcons and Saints battled out their real-life game. Although close, in the end my (Colston's) valiant effort had came up just short. Matt Ryan wasn't good, but he was good enough. As he took the snap for the final play, I was down by one point. One freakin' point. Asking one last time, "Why couldn't you just stay at the team hotel, Steve Slaton?"

But just like in NFL football, the fantasy game ain't over until the clock hits 0:00. With the Falcons needing a Hail Mary pass to win, Ryan chucked the ball 50 yards to the end zone. The smart play for the New Orleans defense would be to knock the ball down. It's the safe play. It's the play most defenses are taught to make. But not Darren Sharper. Not on this Monday night. The Saints' defender leapt up and grabbed a phenomenal interception. What does that do for Matt Ryan's fantasy numbers? A subtle (-2) point penalty for an interception. That subtle (-2) turned my 1 point defeat into a 1 point victory. You couldn't script it. Sulking all day Sunday and Monday, thinking about the trillions of little things I could have done differently to win. And Darren Sharper makes the play less traveled, winning me the game.

Cautiously triumphant. I can't think of a better way to describe fantasy football. On Tuesday, I was saying "Yeah, Steve Slaton really screwed me over, but Darren Sharper bailed me out in the end. I still got a shot." It's almost non-sensical. At least 95% of fans couldn't care less that the play was an interception instead of an incompletion. The Saints had won the game and that's what mattered.

But maybe that's what it's all about. I suppose fantasy football does enhance the fan's experience. Because for one day, for one play, Darren Sharper was my favorite football player in the world. And maybe next week there will be another Darren Sharper that bails me out. Though guys get paid serious money to try to predict and project every stat from every game, the reality is that nobody really knows anything. Even when everything looks figured out, some Darren Sharper-esque player may there to blow it all up.

I've been doing this junk for almost 10 years. Yes, it drives me nuts. But sometimes, sometimes, the proverbial Darren Sharper rides in on his stallion to make it all worthwhile.

Crowning The Champs

"Ballgame over. World Series over. Yankees win. THEEEE...." you get the idea.

In what may be the last baseball blog for a few months, it is time to give the 2009 champions their due. Last night, the New York Yankees christened their new palace by defeating the Philadelphia Phillies to win the championship. All along, I tried to doubt, deny, destruct, destroy, decompose, de-whatever this notion. I picked them to barely get by the walking-dead-Twins. I picked them to lose to the Angels in six games. They humbled me greatly. The only prediction I came close on was that Joba would have an ERA over 6.00. Though he was, at best, 'jiggly,' that wasn't even correct.

So the blog is here to pay respect. After all, it hasn't been the typical decade for the Yankees and their fans. Being a Mets fan, the last time I saw my team reach the World Series was 2000. Pretty long time ago--yours truly wasn't even in high school yet. Well, that's the exact same time the Yankees were last on top of the baseball world. Since then, while the Mets have continually hit their fans in the groin with a barbed wire-wrapped golf club, it hasn't exactly been paradise for the pinstripes either.

In 2001, their highness Mariano Rivera blew game 7 of the World Series to Arizona. In 2003 the Marlins shocked them and the world behind a kid named Beckett. In 2004...well since this is a congratualtory post to the Yankees, I won't even type what happened in 2004. In 2007 it was the Red Sox again. Just to recap...eight years, 0 for 2 in the World Series, watching your sworn enemy win two titles, one of which will be remembered forever.

But make no mistake about it. This is not a Mets fan converting. My feelings about the Yankees and their fans are adequately described in the post leading up to this World Series. I would never, ever, ever forever root for them for even a single game unless the following occurred:

• They played team Al Queda

OR

• Tom Brady buys a team, managed by Bill Belichick, with a payroll of $500 million, called the Baby Abandoners.
  

Even the second one would be dicey. Within the realm of possibility, I could never like them. They are, and forever will be, the Evil Empire.

All I'm saying is...well, I get it. Though this is the unheard-of 27th time it's occurred, I have come to understand the legitimate joy that this brings the Yankee fan. I wasn't really old enough to remember, but I probably would have 'gotten it' in 1996 as well. Being a 22 year old, I would classify the "Age of Entitlement" for the Yankees and their fans to be from 1998-2004.

During the AoE, you wouldn't find the fans saying this:
"Yes! The Yankees are the best team, this is incredible! Championship!"

Instead, it was someting like this, give or take.
"F*** yeah, just add one more to the mantle, baby! Look how many we got. How many does your s*** team have?? It would take you 2,458 years to catch up to us at your pace! We're the best, and we BETTER win next year!"

No real legitimate happiness. Satisfaction, perhaps. But not happiness.

That was during the AoE. After 2004, the Red Sox served the Yankees some humility, and their fans didn't really know how to let go. They mocked, almost dismissed, the two titles won by Boston in four years. The Sox hadn't won in 86 years...what were they going to do? The fans kept on with their AoE aura, but instead of frustrated nods of acceptance, the baseball world just laughed them off. The Yanks spent the most money and had the highest expectations, but couldn't quite seal the deal year after year.

But now, it's vindication for the Yankees. I still can't help but let out a chuckle when ESPN personalities or people calling in to sports radio describe the "long wait" it has been. There are 30 teams in Major League Baseball. 29 of them would give an arm and a leg to wait nine years per title. But the Yankees are different. They love being different. We love hating how they are different.

So I say congratulations. It's been nine years, and the Yankees are back on top. I actually do like some of thier players (Rivera, Series hero Matsui.) And congrats to the fans. Sometimes, in blogs like this, it's easy to categorize everyone into a specific 'fan attitude.' It's very hard not to. There are many, many Yankees fans that root hard, are dedicated, and are darn good people. Co-workers at my jobs. People I spent four years with in college. Kids from my high school--heck, my high school prom date. There are many of you out there. This is your time to celebrate, the first in nine years. Enjoy it.

So are we on the dawn of the second Age of Entitlement? We'll see. But there's one thing we can all agree on...at least this one won't include Roger Clemens.

Monday Mash- Week 8

You would think this Monday Mash would be a joyous occasion for me. I introduced a new system of picking 7 games instead of 5, and had a sterling 6-1 record this week! The only blemish? The Giants' complete and utter meltdown against Philadelphia. I didn't see that one coming; I would like to meet the person that did. But besides that, the Rams, Ravens, Cowboys, and Vikings covered. The Upset Perfiction Panthers even won outright.

The other game I got right? Regrettably, the Dolphins. Here's an excerpt from yesterday's Sunday Smash:
I think the Jets pull it out very, very late. Think about Ronnie Brown's touchdown with under ten seconds left to win the last matchup. Shonn Greene does the same and sends the Jet fans home happy, though with minor heart palpitations.
The Jets had the ball, down by 5, inside the 10-yard line with just a minute to go! Forget the ridiculous and absurd nature from which the Dolphins scored. Forget that if the Jets simply kicked extra points instead of failing two 2-point conversions, they could have simply kicked a field goal for overtime. The Jets were on the brink of not only winning the game in remarkable fashion, but making me a prognosticating genius! What if ESPN was dialing my number as the Jets were driving, about to hire me for their Experts Pick Section? What a terrible way to lose. But this is what we signed up for when we became Jets fans. After 3-0 and on top of the world, it's 4-4 at their bye. We will have a 'State of the Jets' midseason report some point next week.

On to the Giants for a moment. Admittedly, the Jets game was on my TV and I only flipped to Giants-Eagles during commercials. What I saw was eerily similar to what we all saw the two previous games. The Giants have been completely exposed. Ever since safety Kenny Phillips suffered his injury, the G-Men cannot cover anyone in the secondary. Granted, the Saints and Cardinals are known for their high-powered aerial attacks. But the Eagles, in a rivalry game, without Brian Westbrook, putting up 40? Three touchdowns of 40 yards or more. Sure, Eli didn't help with those flutters across the middle, but the secondary looks to be in absolute shambles moving forward. But give credit to Philly. 40 points, and no one rushed or caught for over 100 yards. That there is balance. The Giants are looking awfully forward to their bye in 2 weeks. First they host San Diego next week. They aren't too shabby throwing the ball, either. Here's the rest from week 8.

The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Chris Johnson, Titans. A couple of factors went into this one. First off, the dude ran for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns, getting the Titans their elusive first victory. Second, Johnson performed well enough for this distinction earlier in the season, but was just barely beaten out by a Frank Gore performance. Third, Brett Favre was going to get the award, but he already won it this season. No repeats. So congrats to Johnson, maybe not the best all-around running back in the league. But in this man's eyes, the scariest as far as taking any run for a touchdown.

• Speaking of Favre...what else is left to say? Throws for 250 yards and 4 touchdowns. But believe it or not, he's not the main reason the Vikings won. Aaron Rodgers met him blow for blow for the Packers. He threw for more yards than Favre, and was even the leading rusher for the Packers in the game. Nine guys caught a pass. No, Favre wasn't what set Minnesota apart. It was rookie Percy Harvin, and that gaudy 35-yard average on kickoff returns. He put the Vikings in a position to do damage every time he brought one back. In a game that was so even throughout, this was the difference.
• The Ravens escorted the Broncos back down to earth this week. It will be interesting to see how Denver responds to this. Sure, they started 6-0, but after that hot start they stand just 2 games ahead of San Diego in the division. Throw in the fact that the Broncos still face the Chargers one more time, and Denver may be feeling some heat sooner rather than later. Their first chance at a rebound is pretty darn tough--hosting the defending-champion Steelers next Monday night.
• Devin Hester caught 7 passes yesterday. That doesn't seem too impressive. But on the other side, quarterback Derek Anderson completed 6 passes total for the Browns. The Rams and Titans both won yesterday, so that is 2 less teams the Browns can say they are 'better than' based on their 1-7 record. The only team left? 0-7 Tampa Bay. But the Browns beat the Bills, who beat the Jets, who beat the Pats, who beat the Ravens, who beat the Broncos, who beat the Bengals, who beat the Steelers. So maybe they're among the top teams in the AFC. Who am I to judge?
• One last word on the Upset Perfiction. The Panthers won the game (and put up 34 points) with Jake Delhomme completing 7 passes for 90 yards. Perhaps now they have realized that their team is running and defense. Their well-roundedness is what made them a division champ last year, and what may salvage their season this year.
• Rams-Lions was a fun game! Check out these highlights! The fake field goal at 1:33 of the clip makes these kind of games entertaining. The series of events starting at 0:50 of the clip makes these kind of games legendary.
• Reilly Sports Blog playoff hopefuls Houston and Dallas put up impressive performances against teams against some gross competition. These games are connected though, as Dallas quarterback Tony Romo and Houston running back Steve Slaton are the focal points of the blog's fantasy team. One was good, one is in deep trouble. We will get to this topic more in-depth in the middle of the week.
• Peyton Manning threw for 350 yards, yet no touchdowns. Reggie Wayne caught a touchdown pass though. That's not something you see everyday. Running back Joseph Addai chucked one to Wayne as Indy stayed undefeated against the Niners.
• It's the 4-2 Falcons visiting the 6-0 Saints on Monday Night Football tonight. ESPN is praying for either the Phils or Yanks to put up a 10-spot in the early innings so they can maybe have some viewers. In any case, look for the Saints to prevail, 27-16.
  

Sunday Smash- Week 8

Welcome back to the show, hope everyone had a Happy Halloween! I can't remember the last time I flicked through so many sports games that I legitimately cared about in prime time. There was Islanders-Sabres at 7 (5-0 Isles, 3 in a row. Shazaam.) There was Notre Dame-Washington State (just an occasional score check...everyone knew this one was a gimme for the Irish.) There was Oregon-USC at the same time (a real jaw-dropping experience if you are like me and haven't exactly followed college football your whole life...I've never seen USC get the living crap beaten out of them; didn't know if it was even possible.) Finally, after the absurd storms blew out of Philly, we had game 3 of the World Series between the Phillies and Yankees. Between these two lineups and, more importantly, these two ballparks, this can really be a series like no other as far as balls flying over the wall. The Yankees out-muscled the Phillies last night and can ride the back of CC Sabathia to a possible 3-1 series lead tonight. If Philadephia wins, they can ride Cliff Lee in game 5 to a possible 3-2 series lead. A pivotal game 4 tonight to say the least.

But back to the sport that brings the masses to the Sunday Smash. November has arrived, and it has always been the month where the NFL really drives into high gear. Windy days, fans braving the cold, Thanksgiving, divisional matchups. Things get pretty tasty this time of year. Starting off November? Well, only Brett Favre returning to Green Bay as a member of the hated Vikings. Only the Giants and Eagles renewing their rivalry and providing a sensational appetizer to the Yankees-Phillies main course tonight. And finally, November also brings a change to thr Reilly Sports Blog's Sunday Smash section! I was getting cranky and throwing temper tantrums choosing only 5 games per week to pick. Throw in the fact that I pick the Giants and Jets games every week, and that's only 3 games I have freedom on picking each week. I don't like it. And if I can change, and You can change, everyone can change! So from this point forward, there will be a new and expanded and, hopefully, improved picks section.

Starting...RIGHT NOW! Home teams will be in black to look more spooky. Just cover, baby.

The Locals
Giants (+2) over Eagles
If you'll remember my NFL preaseason preview (I understand if you don't...please don't go back and try to look for it, it's not crucial) you will remember I picked the Eagles to beat out the Giants in the NFC East division. But there's no way Big Blue is losing 3 in a row after starting 5-0. Their home loss to Arizona last Sunday night was a bigtime hiccup, and they will be angry and motivated. The Eagles will be amped up in their own right because of the rivalry and the World Series game mentioned earlier. This one will be fun to watch.
Giants 23, Eagles 17.

Dolphins (+4) over Jets
The Dolphins out-muscled, out-coached, and out-classed the Jets in front of a national audience on Monday Night a few weeks ago. They led the ballyhooed Saints by 21 points before falling apart in the end. Before the Jets beheaded Oakland last week, they looked like a team that was injured and lost. How the Dolphins get 4 points...I cannot explain. I think the Jets pull it out very, very late. Think about Ronnie Brown's touchdown with under ten seconds left to win the last matchup. Shonn Greene does the same and sends the Jet fans home happy, though with minor heart palpitations.
Jets 21, Dolphins 20.

Across the NFL

1. Rams (+4) over Lions
We're going to start out in the pop warner division. The toxic Lions host the decrepid Rams in a game that might be pretty darn entertaining. It may be a 2-0 game, it may be a 42-41 game. Who are we to judge? With Calvin Johnson still banged up, Steven Jackson is the undisputed best offensive player in this matchup. That combined with 4 valuable points (these teams would do horrifying, vile things for 4 points) makes me a Ram Man.
Rams 16, Lions 10.

2. Ravens (-4) over Broncos
Finally, a home team. Finally, a team favored to win. I promise, one day I will believe in the Broncos. One day. I have held that ridiculous catch in week one against my Hard Knock Bengals against them for way too long. Unfortunately it rolls on into this week. Hey Denver, you are off a bye and your first two games are against the Ravens and Steelers. Go 2-0 in these games, and you can officially count me on board. Heck, go 1-1 and I'll be impressed.
Ravens 20, Broncos 7.

3. Cowboys (-10) over Seahawks
Bigger spread, MUCH bigger home stadium. After a lukeward start, the Cowboys had an early bye week, and then two home games coming out of it. Last week, they told the Falcons and the NFL world "our stadium is ridiculous, and we plan to play awesomely here." Though I like the Seahawks, they are walking into a perfect storm here of the Dallas pass rush combined with a possibly mojo'd Tony Romo.
Cowboys 31, Seahawks 17.

4. Vikings (+3) over Packers
The Favre bowl comes at 4 pm today. Some will cheer, some will boo, some may be silent, keeping their feelings in check. Once the game starts though, it's all about football. The Vikings are a better team than the Packers. Minnesota protected their home turf against the Pack earlier this year. The X-Factor? Favre wanting to make this game all about Favre. Forcing ridiculius passes, holding the ball too long, forgetting the basics that make the Vikings a successful team. Presumably, the Vikings are hoping to turn the Favre bowl into the Adrian Peterson bowl. Good luck telling Brett, though.
Vikings 28, Packers 24.

Upset Perfiction of the Week

5. Panthers (+11) over Cardinals
Yes, Arizona is at home. Yes, they beat the vaunted Giants last week on the road. Yes, Jake Delhomme has been to the Panthers what Alka-Seltzer is to birds. But eleven points? The Cardinals can lose to anyone on any given week. I still believe in Carolina--not as a playoff contended, but as a team that can compete every week. That means taking them when they are given more than a touchdown plus a field goal. They lost to Buffalo last week. They'll come in feisty.
Cardinals 31, Panthers 24


Enjoy the games everyone! See you tomorrow (with normal, non-Halloween font) for the Monday Mash.