More on yesterday's game in the Monday Mash. For now, on to the final two games of divisional weekend. I was trying to think of the optimal way to introduce today's matchups. After much deliberation, I consulted the past. I decided to see what was churning through my brain four months ago when I wrote my 2010 NFL preview blog. My self-confidence took an immediate hit within seconds. So many swings and misses. But as you look down at the playoff section, I did manage to get four out of eight teams correct in this very round. The Packers (nothing impressive about the pick) the Seahawks (direct any autograph requests to my email) the Jets (of course) and the Patriots (begrudgingly.) But I am guaranteed to miss at least three of my final four teams. The only hope of saving my picks section and my happiness will be for the Jets to pull a mammoth upset of the Patriots in Foxboro.
But the playoffs thus far have called into question whether homefield is a dominating factor. Except for last week's game in Seattle and yesterday in Pittsburgh, the other four games have been won by the visitors. Two of the home losers (Kansas City and Atlanta) got their doors, windows, and roofs blown off. So there is certainly a degree of hope for mega-underdog Seahawks and Jets this week. How much hope, you ask? Let's see how they measure up...
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-9) AT CHICAGO BEARS (11-5)
The Line: Bears by 10
How They Got Here
Actually, people are still kinda wondering how the hell Seattle got here. But they sure can't knock them anymore. The Seahawks were mocked, cheapened, and saddled with a 10-point spread as a home underdog last week. Nobody blinked at the fact that New Orleans piled up 36 points on Seattle's defense. But everyone was floored when Matt Hasslebeck & co. scored an astounding 41. Seattle had scored more than 25 just 4 times in the regular season. Marshawn Lynch had the run of the millenium, the 'Hawks and their crowd never stopped their charge, and voila! Chicago sat back in their recliners during that game. And--let's be honest--were probably doing somersaults when Seattle won. Chicago got here by playing stellar defense (3rd in NFL in points against) and be establishing an unspectacular-yet-steady mix of the pass and run. Despite the Bears' 11-5 record, there is a noticeable, relevant blemish on their regular season. October 17th...in Chicago...Seahawks 23, Bears 20. Seattle had confidence against a New Orleans team that manhandled them during the regular season--their mindset going against a team they've already beat should be great to watch.
How the Seahawks Can Win
You can make a non-maniacal case that Seattle has the quarterback edge in this game. Yes, Matt Hasselbeck is old. He's been bald for 17 years now. But as he showed last week, there's still some diesel left in the caboose. This is a quarterback with significant playoff experience as well as a Super Bowl appearance. He's even made a fake-cameo on South Park. At the very least, he won't be overwhelmed by the rabid fans. Chicago won't let anyone run on their defense, but that plays rather nicely into Seattle's hands. Despite Lynch's earth-shaker last week, Seattle isn't looking to ground and pound anybody. Hasselbeck will have to be the guy, and the Bears were a mere 20th in the NFL against the pass. As far as Chicago's offense is concerned, everyone expects Forte to have more success than the no-name injury replacements New Orleans trotted out there. But passing-wise, this will be far less daunting than the Saints attack. Take away the huge play, and they'll get Cutler to do things he's not supposed to. Kick returner Leon Washington better bring his A-game, because he will need it to keep pace with Devin Hester on the other side.
How the Bears Can Win
I'm not sure how to answer this question. On the surface, it seems so easy to say that Seattle just rode the wave of their fans and put everything they had into that one victory. It was their Super Bowl. They are content, and losing this game will not sully their great finish to the season. Chicago's defense is stratospheres better than the sham New Orleans pulled last week. Jay Cutler is no Drew Brees, but it certainly seems logical he can put up more points than the Chicago defense will allow Seattle. Lynch won't be breaking eight tackles all afternoon, let alone on any one play. Hester will make a difference in field position. Chicago needs to hop out early (like New Orleans) and never loosen the grip on Seattle's throats (unlike New Orleans.) A Packer win today means that the Bears are only one win away from hosting their divisional rival next week for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. It's hard to imagine that they won't seize this opportunity.
The Pick
Oh boy. I picked Seatte to lose by two touchdowns last week and they won. I picked Green Bay and Pittsburgh to lose today and they won. Should I go with my bread and butter tactic of being just plain wrong? No...it's not the Reilly way. At the full risk of going 0-3 on divisional weekend picks, I'm taking the Seahawks to cover. And I'm taking the Seahawks to win. Too many wow factors--Hasselbeck acting like John Wayne on his last legs...Pete Carroll constantly being on the verge of a stroke due to childlike excitement...everyone who said they shouldn't be in the playoffs eating their second serving of crow. Most of all, the whole Seattle-winning-a-shocker-immediately-before-the-Jets-kickoff really worked wonders last week. The NFC Championship is going through Seattle. 7-and-9? More like 7-and-FINE.
SEAHAWKS 21, BEARS 16
NEW YORK JETS (11-5) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-2)
The Line: Patriots by 9
How They Got Here
I could rehash the whole story, but I'm trying to keep this post under 25,000 words. In short, Rex Ryan hired by Jets two years ago. Magical run in 2009, a lot of talk of a breakout after, Hard Knocks, then beat the Patriots early in 2010 to get the hype machine in full throttle. Pats went about their business, traded Randy Moss yet got better, and everything led to a Monday night matchup in Foxboro with both teams at 9-2. Gurus and the general public were split on who would win. Those who picked New England were correct to the tune of 45-3. New England dominates the majority of the remaining regular season en route to a 14-2 record and a stone-cold frontrunner for the Super Bowl.
It's amazing what 45-3 did to the NFL universe. The Pats staked their claim on the league, while the Jets bumbled up and down, going just 2-2 after the embarrassment. Going into the Monday night matchup, the hype was insane as football folks (present company included) did everything they could to preview, analyze, try to find the minuscule things that separated New York and New England. Now? Nobody expects the Jets to win this game. Even the fans themselves--the majority have shifted last week's mindset (I don't know if we can beat Peyton, but this would really be a step back from last year) to this week's mindset (We really don't have a chance here, but at least we have back-to-back years with playoff wins in our pockets.)
The Jets got here with capable defensive play (but not nearly as good as last season due to pass rush dearth-ocity.) Technically, they have solid offensive balance between the run and the pass. But sometimes it seems to work against them in that they're unsure when to use which. An improving (but injured?) Sanchez, ridiculous 4th quarter comebacks, and they've shown they can beat anyone when they play to their potential. The Patriots got here because nobody can really stop their offense for four quarters, they never turn the ball over, and the defense just waits for opposing teams to make the inevitable mistakes as their deficits grow. So simple, yet so difficult to pull off.
Finally, we must mention the off-field stuff. Rex saying it's all about coaching. Cromartie calling Brady a butt. Welker with the foot puns, followed by Bart Scott's apparent threat to murder him. It's all worthless once the game starts, but boy did it grab some national attention.
How the Jets Can Win
Let me do my absolute best with this one. On that Monday night, 45-3 was a better outcome than something along the lines of 45-20. I truly believe that. When the Patriots pop in that game footage, they are going to find out vital information such as, "we can really contain Sanchez if he plays like sloth manure" and "this defense is pretty beatable when they have no idea what they're doing." When the Jets look at everything that went wrong (granted it probably took days to see it all) it's actually something valuable. As far as the defense goes, I'm not nearly smart enough to know all the changes that are needed from last time. I can only figure Welker will see a lot of Revis (if you're going to have Brady beat you, at least don't have it be with his guy on his terms) Cromartie playing his style on Branch, and a bunch of mixtures on the inside stuff and tight ends. On offense, I hope Rex simply played the 2nd half of the Colts game on loop all week for his team. They turned back the clock to last year when their run game and attitude was something to be feared, not sprinkled in. Peyton Manning touched the ball three times all half. It was poetry. If and when the pass game is needed, though, Sanchez needs to can the high throws he showed in Indy. A turnover early would be suicide in New England. It's just the way it works. Holmes needs to shake his weird case of the dropsies, Keller/Cotchery must be utilized because they always play their best against the Pats, and most importantly, Braylon Edwards needs to give Patriots defensive backs a follow-up lesson on how to Dougie.
How the Patriots Can Win
Belichick and his staff being great with a camera. Tom Brady not wanting to let down the son he abandoned (actually, I guess we should say let him down again.)
...Supplementary, Non-Hateful Ways the Patriots Can Win
The team is a perfect 8-0 at home. Tom Brady is historically efficient throwing the football this season. Every strength the Pats have on offense is a defensive weakness for the Jets. Last time the teams played, New England won by 6 (touchdowns, not points. Don't be silly.) There is no doubt the Patriots have more to lose in this one, which counts for something. Atlanta gave them a wakeup call today that 1-seeds can be as vulnerable as anyone else (You know, in the 0.000000000000001% chance that the Jets were coming into this one under-the-radar.) I think if we hooked everyone in the world up to a lie detector, there would be only one man that believes 100% in his heart that the Jets are going to win this game. And the Pats want to crush him more than anything in the world.
The Pick
I will spare you the dramatics. You know and I know that ever since Nick Folk's kick passed through the uprights last Saturday, this blog was going to pick the Jets to win this game. Listening to insane amounts of sports radio this week, you hear a lot of "45-3...what's going to change?" You know what, it's a great question. It was a great question last weekend when people previewed the Saints-Seahawks game. It was a great question in 2007 when the football world asked, "18-0...what's going to change?" Most of the time, there is no answer to this question and indeed nothing changes. But sometimes--the magical times--we are provided with an answer that no one expected come the end of the game. New England is coming in playing unbelievable football. Daunting as it may seem for the Jets, this is what they wanted. Rex Ryan said it the first day he was hired. Two years later, Belichick and his rings stand in the way of a return trip to the AFC Championship. 45-3...what changes today? Honestly, I have no idea. Just call it a leap of faith. Or perhaps a catapult of faith. But go ahead and take it, Jets fans. Who knows how many chances to leap we're ever going to get? JETS 17, PATRIOTS 14
My fingers are downright bleeding. Enjoy the heck outta these games, everyone.
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