But after what felt like one of the longest weeks in NFL history, the divisional round is finally here. It's the great week where quantity and quality are in play. Starting next week, only three games remain in this weird NFL season. So the four top-notch games on the slate for the next two days will be tremendous.
I am writing up this blog at 1:01 on a Friday night. One reason I'm doing so is because my current social life is comparable to Mother Theresa's. A second, more relevant reason is that your's truly will be present at the Jets Pep Rally tomorrow at the Meadowlands. Should be a fun way to kill the interminable time between waking up and the 4:30 pm game. One lucky(?) fan even wins a trip to Sunday's game in Foxboro! I hear everyone gets a free rally towel too. So there's that.
But enough about me. According to the point spreads, tomorrow's two games are the ones this weekend that are actually supposed to be competitive. Both matchups are razor-close in terms of talent, and the teams played down-to-the-wire games during the regular season. The tale of the tapes:
BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4)
The Line: Steelers by 3
How They Got Here
Let me just first point out that I'm not a proponent for 'adding wins in the playoffs to a team's overall record. I know the Ravens are technically "13-4" after their win last week, but the unbalanced number doesn't resonate with me well. I know this kills the Seahawks excitement of potentially becoming a .500 team this weekend, but I can't help it. Ok, now back to something relevant. Pittsburgh and Baltimore, like they always do, battled it out in the same division, split the season series, and dominated most of the other teams they played. Pittsburgh has only lost to teams that made the playoffs (Ravens, Saints, Patriots, Jets.) And take the Baltimore loss with a grain of salt, considering it was a 3-point loss when Roethlisberger wasn't released from time-out yet. But outside of beating Baltimore and an overtime win over Atlanta, there aren't too many WOW victories for the Steelers. Drubbing the Bucs and Raiders are the best of the rest. Three of Baltmore's losses came against the NFL's elite (Pats, Falcons, Steelers) and they had one awful day against Cincinnati. In case you don't get the idea (and haven't heard the 20 billion people say it this week)...um, these teams are close.
How the Ravens Can Win
Baltimore needs to keep everything the same in terms of what they do for 95% of the game. It's always low scoring, it's always close. But in the end, the Ravens seem more prone to make the crippling mistake than Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco needs to hold onto the ball and be efficient. Running on the Steelers is as tough as it gets. But just consult New England- the Pittsburgh defense can be had through the air. Boldin, Mason, and Heap are very respectable receivers and all must be utilized. Ray Rice will be an important checkdown out of the backfield, because Flacco cannot afford to be too bold. The defense, particularly Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, know their window is closing as a championship contender. This Ravens defense isn't as terrifying as the one a decade ago, but they are as experienced as it gets, and will recognize everything Pittsburgh shows them.
How the Steelers Can Win
Personal behavior aside, Ben Roethlisberger is the guy you want on your team this time of year. He is tough, efficient, and can use his legs. He will make defenses crazy with his ability to turn a missed sack into a 40-yard play. The Ravens have had some weird games where their defense cannot stop the bleeding (Houston, anyone?) Nobody expects a shootout in this one, but Pittsburgh can certainly keep up should a circus break out. Mike Wallace is a big play waiting to happen, and it will be interesting to see whether Ben floats a bomb to him with Ed Reed patrolling the area. Pittsburgh will run plenty, but many are concerned about Ben's protection with that patchwork offensive line. Terrell Suggs and the rest of the Ravens' front seven are no picnic, so they will need to be sharp.
The Pick
This is a unique game where most fans probably won't even have a rooting interest. No matter which team advances to the conference championship, nobody will be disappointed. But I think this is Baltimore's time to shine. I know that homefield means quite a bit these days, but these teams did have the same exact record (with the Steelers being a pedestrian 5-3 at home.) Baltimore played their tails off last week and dominated Kansas City. Pittsburgh's bye, combined with two laughers to end the season, means they haven't played a meaningful game in quite some time. I know it's not much...but the way these teams play each other, it's more than enough for me. The Flac Attack gets the monkey off his Back (no, this pick was not made just so I could make that rhyme. But it sure helps.) RAVENS 10, STEELERS 9
GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-6) AT ATLANTA FALCONS (13-3)
The Line: Falcons by 1.5
How They Got Here
Really a perfect storm brewing in this one. The nation seems to think that the 2010 Packers are the greatest 6-seed of all time, and the 2010 Falcons are the worst 1-seed of all time. Atlanta has done nothing but win all season, yet has not gotten anyone's attention. The quarterbacks should shine in this one, as Matt Ryan goes toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay has overcome a decade's worth of injuries to make the playoffs. The Falcons rode Ryan's insanely hot home record all season, and their dome is where they want to be. Atlanta's three losses were nothing to sneeze at- Saints, Eagles, and Steelers. And one of their 13 wins came at home against this Packers team. Not counting the Matt Flynn chronicles of mid-December, that Falcon game was the only loss with Rodgers at the helm since October 17th.
How the Packers Can Win
Everything revolves around Rodgers on offense. He throws great, he runs great, he looks great (very Gyllenhaal-esque.) James Starks came out of nowhere against the Eagles last week to give Green Bay an unexpected running game. Whether he can do that again is questionable, but the passing game could provide enough to win. Woodson and Williams play great pass defense from the corners, and they will need to be sharp against Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and the others. Clay Matthews is looking to make Matt Ryan's life a living hell Saturday night. He can turn the game by himself.
How the Falcons Can Win
Well they would prefer to beat the Packers a little more comfortably this time around (Atlanta needed a big kickoff/facemask combo to make a buzzer-beating field goal.) Everyone and their mistress thinks that Green Bay has the overall better team. But there is something to be said about the Falcons in their building. Ryan just plays lights out. Although they limped a little bit toward the end of the season, everything they have done has been for this game in this venue. There are no superstars on the Falcon defense, but plenty of steady guys like John Abraham and Brent Grimes. It's doubtful they will completely shut down Green Bay, but they can keep it reasonable. Michael Turner will need a huge game on the ground.
The Pick
I'm going with the 'favorite.' The point spread is negligible, and I see Atlanta pulling this one out. Though they did everything on their own, there's no disputing that the Packers squeaked into these playoffs. The injuries were just so much to overcome. The Falcons have gone about their business just winning game after game, and I don't see it ending so soon for them. They defeated these Packers once already, and now everything they've worked for all season is on the line. Ryan comes up big at the end of a fantastic game. FALCONS 27, PACKERS 20
Thanks for reading, everyone. Seeya tomorrow. Rah Rah, Jets!
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