Conference finals time! And with the Rangers and Lightning within minutes of puck-drop, let's get right to it!!
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. #2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points)
Season Series: Lightning won all three games, all in regulation.
Stanley Cup Odds: Rangers 2/1 (best in final four); Lightning 9/2 (worst)
Relevant High School Musical Quote: "Do you remember in kindergarten, how you'd meet a kid, and know nothing about them, then 10 seconds later you're playing like you're best friends, because you didn't have to be anything but yourself? Singing with you felt like that." -Gabriella, HSM 1
Round Two Roundup: Are the Rangers equipped for another marathon? ; Are the Lightning equipped to topple another all-world goalie?
Round Three Breakdown: The Rangers are the ultimate playoff rodents. Their games- whether wins or losses- are all so incredibly close that their fans are all on the brink of clinical treatment. And being down 3-1 to a rollin' Capitals team and needing to win three straight (two on the road) seemed like mountain too high. But Chris Kreider's game-tying goal with a minute left in Game 5 was a series-turning moment that the Rangers never looked back from. Of course, as per their unspoken arrangement, the three consecutive NYR victories were by one goal. Henrik Lundqvist outdueled Washington's Braden Holtby- who cannot be give enough credit for his outstanding goaltending in the series. And much like last year's epic run to the Cup Final, the Blueshirts appear to be content taking the long scenic route. And the next stop goes through scenic Tampa Bay.
Which creates an interesting dynamic. Taking a look at the season series above, the Lightning had their way with the Rangers when they matched up this year. The combined score of Tampa's three victories: 15-7! And Lundqvist was in goal for all three games. These games need to be taken with a grain of salt, though, as they all occurred in a strange two-week time period over five months ago. But still...don't expect this fantastic Lightning offense to be intimidated by The King.
Tampa also had a long series in their own right against Montreal last round. After mauling the Canadiens in the first three games of the series, their potential sweep turned into a headache when Montreal fought back to win the next two. Their offense is just relentless. In these playoffs, four Tampa players (Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn) have more points that the Rangers' co-leading scorers (Brassard & Stepan.) And they're not all just firepower. As ridiculous as Lundqvist has been with his 1.60 goals against average in these playoffs, Tampa's young Ben Bishop is right there with him at 1.81.
The Pick: It's the playoff-savvy veterans who only play close games against the young upstarts who have the best offense in the entire league. The Rangers will enjoy home ice advantage in the season, and certainly will have a sizable NY contingent when the series shifts down south as well. But there's something in this upstart Lightning that I like. They matured in taking down Detroit in a gritty seven game first round series. They overcame adversity when Montreal came roaring back in round two (ask the Capitals how tough that can be...) And here, facing their third storied Original Six team in as many rounds, Tampa is ready to put the whipped cream and hot fudge on top. Lightning in Six
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. #3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks won two out of three games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Blackhawks 2.25/1 (2nd best); 2.3/1 (3rd best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "My prom...is wherever you are." - Troy Bolton, HSM3
Round Two Roundup: Can anybody stop the Ducks? ; Can anybody stop the Blackhawks?
Round Three Breakdown: Whoaaaaaa Mama, this one is gonna be good. Despite some idiot picking Minnesota to upset Chicago in round two, the Blackhawks romped to a sweep (though to be fair to idiot, three of the four games were decided by one goal.) After all kinds of shakiness regarding their goaltending situation in Round one, Corey Crawford found his ways and Chicago has never looked back. Patrick Kane has not shown a bit of rust since returning from a long injury absence, leading the Hawks in points. He along with the usual suspects Toews, Keith, Sharp, etc. have been an absolute machine, as that core is trying to win their third Stanley Cup in six years.
The Ducks, meanwhile, haven't exactly been slouches. They have played nine games in the first three rounds, and have lost only one of them- in overtime. The offense has ripped off 35 goals in that nine-game span, and Frederik Anderson is another goalie rockin a sub-2.00 goals against average. Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf have been hot as pistols in leading the offense, although Chicago will be by far their biggest playoff test to date. No disrespect to Winnipeg nor Calgary...but they are no Chicago Blackhawks. This series will be long. It will be tough. And the winner will be quite the worthy Western Conference champion. When I'm flipping the coin, give me the squad with Kane and with more playoff moxy. By a smidge.
The Pick: Blackhawks in Seven.
Thanks for reading. And with a game every night for the next two weeks, enjoy the hockey binge!
Saturday, May 16, 2015
Thursday, April 30, 2015
NHL Playoffs Round 2: The Quack Attack is Back, Jack
Round one of the NHL Playoffs is in the books, and there are now just eight teams who can still set their sails toward Lord Stanley's Cup. The Lightning closed out the Red Wings 2-0 in Game 7 Wednesday night to close out the first round. Those fans in Detroit join their brokenhearted brethren in Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Vancouver, St. Louis, Nashville, and yes- Long Island (at least the pockets of LI who aren't pro-Rangers.)
So what did we learn in the first round? Well, the higher seeds ran the table in the East (despite Tampa and Washington needing 7-game marathons to do so.) While the West was appropriately wild- three lower seeds overcame home ice disadvantage to oust their foes.
The blog's first round picks were passable- thumbs up on the Rangers/Canadiens/Lightning/Ducks/Flames/Blackhawks; thumbs down on the Blues and You-Know-Who-landers.
And now that we've mentioned them, a quick aside on this season...
Simply incredible. The Isles made some offseason splashes, had folks wondering if there was something coming together for the organization, and then BAM. They won four straight at the start of the season, never let too many cold streaks hit them across the long season, and transformed themselves from a lottery team into a perennial playoff squad that's only going to get better as their insanely young core grows and matures.
Which is why the whole move sucks. So much. It's been beaten into the ground, and very few outside of LI want to hear about this while there's still a Stanley Cup to be won in the coming weeks, but being at all three Nassau Coliseum games gave me such a thrill. A thrill that I just cannot believe will be missed out by future generations of Long Islanders.
Driving along Hempstead Turnpike and seeing the outside video board that simply hasn't been operational for months and months....the entire 16,000+ seat building being accessible via just one concourse....the concessions/bathroom anarchy that results from aforementioned 16,000+ seat building having just one concourse...being able to literally touch/whack/bludgeon the low-hanging ceiling from the top rows, while still having a ridiculously good view of the action...the hundreds of rhythmic car horns sounding "BEEP-BEEP-BEEPBEEPBEEP" to the tune of "Lets-Go-Is-Lan-Ders!"...
It was something special for each and every fan. Right, attendance wasn't great throughout the past several seasons. Correct, several bandwagon fans hopped aboard for the playoff push. But for a team who hasn't won a playoff series in 22 years (by far the highest drought in the NHL- only 5 teams have streaks longer than 10 years), even the bandwagoners haven't had it easy!
The Brooklyn era awaits, and I will begrudgingly welcome it with open arms. After all, as I've learned with Bud Light Lime, The Big Bang Theory, and zumba... "Don't knock it til ya try it." But not-knocking is a far cry from "better experience than the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum." Because the Brooklyn atmosphere is never topping what went down those last three playoff games in Uniondale.
...
Still with me? Good. Great! On to the second round. Let's take a look at who will still be standing as eight becomes four over the next couple weeks....
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. #2M Washington Capitals (101 points)
Season Series: Rangers won three out of four games, all in regulation.
Stanley Cup Odds: Rangers 3/1 (best in NHL); Capitals 10/1 (7th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "THE GOA-LIEEEEEEEEE!!" - Wolf "The Dentist" Stansson, D2
Round One Roundup: Is Henrik Lundqvist of this planet? ; Can the Caps conquer New York?
Round Two Breakdown: As many Ranger fans can attest, that was no ordinary five-game romp over Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby went Sid Vicious in Game 2, tying the series as it shifted to Pittsburgh. But three consecutive 2-1 victories- with the final two coming in overtime- thrust the Rangers into the second round. Goalie Henrik Lundqvist was unbelievable in every sense- completely shutting down the Penguins as the Blueshirt offense did just enough. Can he continue it against the potent Capitals attack?
If you're a Washington fan, you pick between two mindsets. Door number one: "The Islanders effectively shut down superstar Alex Ovechkin for much of the series, and Long Island was without three of their best defensemen. We're screwed against this Ranger blueline!" Door number two: "Ovechkin was facing some serious monkeys on his back and was just pressing. He won't be held down two series in a row...look out, Rangers."
The Capitals have some serious playoff bones to pick with the Rangers. With this being the best regular season NYR team since the 1994 Cup run, nothing would give Ovechkin and the boys more joy than ousting them. Braden Holtby would have to be terrific- as he was for much of Round One.
But in the end, the Rangers just have too much. As good as Holtby has been, the fear of burnout is still ever-present. And even on his best day, he's not Lundqvist. Rick Nash, Derrick Brassard, etc. give the Rangers enough to solve the Caps defense. Washington's spirit will be willing, but the body will be weak.
The Pick: Rangers in Five
#1A Montreal Canadiens (110 points) vs. #2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points)
Season Series: Lightning won ALL five games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Canadiens 6/1 (5th best); Lightning 8/1 (6th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "12 to 1. 12...to...1. You know what word comes to mind when I think of that? PATHETIC!" - Gordon Bombay, D2
Round One Roundup: Did Montreal needlessly miss out on valuable rest? ; Did Tampa's marathon series exhaust them, or allow them to grow up?
The Breakdown: The two squads who battled for Atlantic Division supremacy throughout the six-plus months of the regular season finally get to duke it out in the playoffs. It's time to pick your cup of tea when watching this series- do you want the best scoring offense (Tampa) or the NHL's best 2015 goalie and surefire MVP (Montreal's Carey Price)? Rarely do you see a team earn 110 points in a season and get blanked five times by the same opponent during that season...but good grief the young Lightning must be sky high with confidence.
In what many (present company included) thought would be a relative stomping, Detroit gave Tampa all they could handle.But goalie Ben Bishop lived up to the billing in his game 7 shutout. Incomprehensibly, Tampa won a seven-game series with superstar Steven Stamkos being held without a goal. That will need to change in a hurray if the Lightning are going to solve Price and the Canadien defense.
These teams truly are neck and neck. At the end of the day, though, I see the Eastern Conference coming down to the best goalie of the past decade (Lundqvist) facing off against the unquestioned king of Goaltending 2015 (Price).
The Pick: Canadiens in Seven
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. #3P Calgary Flames (97 points)
Season Series: Ducks won three out of five games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Ducks 4.5/1 (2nd best); Flames 12/1 (8th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "Yes sir, Mr. Ducksworth. Quack Quack QUACK QUACK QUACK, Mr. Ducksworth!" - Gordon Bombay, D1
Round One Roundup: Are the Ducks finally living up the the hype? ; Is Calgary content just winning a round, or are they primed for an underdog run?
Round Two Breakdown: Was there even a Ducks-Jets series? Did I miss it? Was it cool?
The Winnipeg fans gave their squad a hearty salute at home after the Ducks swept them four games straight, but despite one overtime game it really wasn't much of a battle. Frederick Anderson was tremendous in goal for the Quackers, who now take on a Calgary team that out-bullied and out-hustled and most, importantly, out-scored the higher seeded Canucks in Round One.
Jonas Hiller, now with Calgary, goes up against the squad where he enjoyed the most success in his career. Jiri Hudler and Johnny Gaudreau were phenomenal against the Canucks, but it's hard to see that continuing against what appears to be a no-nonsense version of the Ducks. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler lead an attack that will be just too much for the Flames to handle. Though they provided plenty of thrills against Vancouver, the Calgary Flames just don't have the look of a final-four team.
The Pick: Ducks in Six.
#3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points) vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild (100 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks won three out of five games
Stanley Cup Odds: Blackhawks 4.5/1 (3rd best); Wild 5/1 (4th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "I told Coach Orion that you were the heart of the team...and that you would learn something from each other. I told him that you were the real Minnesota Miracle Man. So be that man, Charlie. Be that man." - Gordon Bombay, D3
Round One Roundup: Who the heck plays goalie for Chicago? ; Can Minnesota continue to be goal-scoring maniacs?
Round Two Breakdown: The must-watch series of Round Two. Chicago has all the talent in the world throughout their roster, but their one apparent blemish is where...you never ever want to have the blemish. Corey Crawford is the proven Cup winner, but lays an egg in Game One. Backup Scott Darling went on to pull the game out of the fire, and yet the Blackhawks went back to Crawford in Game Two- only to get blasted 6-2 by Nashville. Then they hand the keys to Darling, who wins games three and four before taking his own beatdown in Game 5. Crawford wins Game six, and Chicago advances in "what the heck do we do here?" fashion.
In comes the Zach Parise-led Minnesota attack, which ripped the heavily favored Blues defense to shreds in Round One. but the story of the series was goalie Devan "Get The Tables" Dubnyk, who put on a fantastic Jeckyll & Hyde routine. When he was good, he was great (four goals total surrendered in Wild's four wins.) When he was bad, he was an albatross (10 goals surrendered in two losses.)
So do we trust the greatness and playoff moxy of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, etc. to make up for the goaltending wackiness in Chicago? In a word, NO!
Three higher seeded teams advance this round, and one plucky Minnesota Wild squad crashes the party as well. Be those men, Minnesota...Be those men.
The Pick: Wild in Seven
Thanks for reading, and enjoy the second round action!!
So what did we learn in the first round? Well, the higher seeds ran the table in the East (despite Tampa and Washington needing 7-game marathons to do so.) While the West was appropriately wild- three lower seeds overcame home ice disadvantage to oust their foes.
The blog's first round picks were passable- thumbs up on the Rangers/Canadiens/Lightning/Ducks/Flames/Blackhawks; thumbs down on the Blues and You-Know-Who-landers.
And now that we've mentioned them, a quick aside on this season...
Simply incredible. The Isles made some offseason splashes, had folks wondering if there was something coming together for the organization, and then BAM. They won four straight at the start of the season, never let too many cold streaks hit them across the long season, and transformed themselves from a lottery team into a perennial playoff squad that's only going to get better as their insanely young core grows and matures.
Which is why the whole move sucks. So much. It's been beaten into the ground, and very few outside of LI want to hear about this while there's still a Stanley Cup to be won in the coming weeks, but being at all three Nassau Coliseum games gave me such a thrill. A thrill that I just cannot believe will be missed out by future generations of Long Islanders.
Driving along Hempstead Turnpike and seeing the outside video board that simply hasn't been operational for months and months....the entire 16,000+ seat building being accessible via just one concourse....the concessions/bathroom anarchy that results from aforementioned 16,000+ seat building having just one concourse...being able to literally touch/whack/bludgeon the low-hanging ceiling from the top rows, while still having a ridiculously good view of the action...the hundreds of rhythmic car horns sounding "BEEP-BEEP-BEEPBEEPBEEP" to the tune of "Lets-Go-Is-Lan-Ders!"...
It was something special for each and every fan. Right, attendance wasn't great throughout the past several seasons. Correct, several bandwagon fans hopped aboard for the playoff push. But for a team who hasn't won a playoff series in 22 years (by far the highest drought in the NHL- only 5 teams have streaks longer than 10 years), even the bandwagoners haven't had it easy!
The Brooklyn era awaits, and I will begrudgingly welcome it with open arms. After all, as I've learned with Bud Light Lime, The Big Bang Theory, and zumba... "Don't knock it til ya try it." But not-knocking is a far cry from "better experience than the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum." Because the Brooklyn atmosphere is never topping what went down those last three playoff games in Uniondale.
...
Still with me? Good. Great! On to the second round. Let's take a look at who will still be standing as eight becomes four over the next couple weeks....
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. #2M Washington Capitals (101 points)
Season Series: Rangers won three out of four games, all in regulation.
Stanley Cup Odds: Rangers 3/1 (best in NHL); Capitals 10/1 (7th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "THE GOA-LIEEEEEEEEE!!" - Wolf "The Dentist" Stansson, D2
Round One Roundup: Is Henrik Lundqvist of this planet? ; Can the Caps conquer New York?
Round Two Breakdown: As many Ranger fans can attest, that was no ordinary five-game romp over Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby went Sid Vicious in Game 2, tying the series as it shifted to Pittsburgh. But three consecutive 2-1 victories- with the final two coming in overtime- thrust the Rangers into the second round. Goalie Henrik Lundqvist was unbelievable in every sense- completely shutting down the Penguins as the Blueshirt offense did just enough. Can he continue it against the potent Capitals attack?
If you're a Washington fan, you pick between two mindsets. Door number one: "The Islanders effectively shut down superstar Alex Ovechkin for much of the series, and Long Island was without three of their best defensemen. We're screwed against this Ranger blueline!" Door number two: "Ovechkin was facing some serious monkeys on his back and was just pressing. He won't be held down two series in a row...look out, Rangers."
The Capitals have some serious playoff bones to pick with the Rangers. With this being the best regular season NYR team since the 1994 Cup run, nothing would give Ovechkin and the boys more joy than ousting them. Braden Holtby would have to be terrific- as he was for much of Round One.
But in the end, the Rangers just have too much. As good as Holtby has been, the fear of burnout is still ever-present. And even on his best day, he's not Lundqvist. Rick Nash, Derrick Brassard, etc. give the Rangers enough to solve the Caps defense. Washington's spirit will be willing, but the body will be weak.
The Pick: Rangers in Five
#1A Montreal Canadiens (110 points) vs. #2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points)
Season Series: Lightning won ALL five games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Canadiens 6/1 (5th best); Lightning 8/1 (6th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "12 to 1. 12...to...1. You know what word comes to mind when I think of that? PATHETIC!" - Gordon Bombay, D2
Round One Roundup: Did Montreal needlessly miss out on valuable rest? ; Did Tampa's marathon series exhaust them, or allow them to grow up?
The Breakdown: The two squads who battled for Atlantic Division supremacy throughout the six-plus months of the regular season finally get to duke it out in the playoffs. It's time to pick your cup of tea when watching this series- do you want the best scoring offense (Tampa) or the NHL's best 2015 goalie and surefire MVP (Montreal's Carey Price)? Rarely do you see a team earn 110 points in a season and get blanked five times by the same opponent during that season...but good grief the young Lightning must be sky high with confidence.
In what many (present company included) thought would be a relative stomping, Detroit gave Tampa all they could handle.But goalie Ben Bishop lived up to the billing in his game 7 shutout. Incomprehensibly, Tampa won a seven-game series with superstar Steven Stamkos being held without a goal. That will need to change in a hurray if the Lightning are going to solve Price and the Canadien defense.
These teams truly are neck and neck. At the end of the day, though, I see the Eastern Conference coming down to the best goalie of the past decade (Lundqvist) facing off against the unquestioned king of Goaltending 2015 (Price).
The Pick: Canadiens in Seven
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. #3P Calgary Flames (97 points)
Season Series: Ducks won three out of five games.
Stanley Cup Odds: Ducks 4.5/1 (2nd best); Flames 12/1 (8th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "Yes sir, Mr. Ducksworth. Quack Quack QUACK QUACK QUACK, Mr. Ducksworth!" - Gordon Bombay, D1
Round One Roundup: Are the Ducks finally living up the the hype? ; Is Calgary content just winning a round, or are they primed for an underdog run?
Round Two Breakdown: Was there even a Ducks-Jets series? Did I miss it? Was it cool?
The Winnipeg fans gave their squad a hearty salute at home after the Ducks swept them four games straight, but despite one overtime game it really wasn't much of a battle. Frederick Anderson was tremendous in goal for the Quackers, who now take on a Calgary team that out-bullied and out-hustled and most, importantly, out-scored the higher seeded Canucks in Round One.
Jonas Hiller, now with Calgary, goes up against the squad where he enjoyed the most success in his career. Jiri Hudler and Johnny Gaudreau were phenomenal against the Canucks, but it's hard to see that continuing against what appears to be a no-nonsense version of the Ducks. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler lead an attack that will be just too much for the Flames to handle. Though they provided plenty of thrills against Vancouver, the Calgary Flames just don't have the look of a final-four team.
The Pick: Ducks in Six.
#3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points) vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild (100 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks won three out of five games
Stanley Cup Odds: Blackhawks 4.5/1 (3rd best); Wild 5/1 (4th best)
Relevant Mighty Ducks Quote: "I told Coach Orion that you were the heart of the team...and that you would learn something from each other. I told him that you were the real Minnesota Miracle Man. So be that man, Charlie. Be that man." - Gordon Bombay, D3
Round One Roundup: Who the heck plays goalie for Chicago? ; Can Minnesota continue to be goal-scoring maniacs?
Round Two Breakdown: The must-watch series of Round Two. Chicago has all the talent in the world throughout their roster, but their one apparent blemish is where...you never ever want to have the blemish. Corey Crawford is the proven Cup winner, but lays an egg in Game One. Backup Scott Darling went on to pull the game out of the fire, and yet the Blackhawks went back to Crawford in Game Two- only to get blasted 6-2 by Nashville. Then they hand the keys to Darling, who wins games three and four before taking his own beatdown in Game 5. Crawford wins Game six, and Chicago advances in "what the heck do we do here?" fashion.
In comes the Zach Parise-led Minnesota attack, which ripped the heavily favored Blues defense to shreds in Round One. but the story of the series was goalie Devan "Get The Tables" Dubnyk, who put on a fantastic Jeckyll & Hyde routine. When he was good, he was great (four goals total surrendered in Wild's four wins.) When he was bad, he was an albatross (10 goals surrendered in two losses.)
So do we trust the greatness and playoff moxy of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, etc. to make up for the goaltending wackiness in Chicago? In a word, NO!
Three higher seeded teams advance this round, and one plucky Minnesota Wild squad crashes the party as well. Be those men, Minnesota...Be those men.
The Pick: Wild in Seven
Thanks for reading, and enjoy the second round action!!
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
2015 NHL Playoffs: Do You Want to Build a Snowman?
It's here.
It's finally, finally here.
Tonight begins the 2015 NHL Playoffs. The season started in October with 30 teams dreaming the ultimate dream of raising the Stanley Cup, and that list has now been whittled down to 16. Included in these 16 are a Rangers team looking to return to the Cup Final after falling short against the Kings last year; as well as an Islanders team looking to write a fairytale ending to its final season at Nassau Coliseum.
These hockey playoffs are the crapshoot of all crapshoots. The upcoming basketball playoffs will also invite 16 teams to the dance...but in reality there are only 4-5 true contenders. In the NHL, seeding is just a number. As the 'Reset' button is pushed on everything from the past 6 months and everybody is now 0-0, it can be a hot goalie, clicking power play, playing on home ice, etc. that makes an underdog team greater than the sum of its parts.
It's why the Bruins and defending-champion Kings were so devastated to lose out on their playoff spots in the final week. These teams weren't playing for a boost in morale & for the right to get blown off the ice by the top seeds in their conference. No. If you're in this tournament, you can authentically win this tournament. Simple as that.
While that part may be simple, picking out who the heck is gonna win this thing is the polar opposite. The puck drops tonight on four of the eight first round series, so let's take a look at what's in store.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. (WC) Pittsburgh Penguins (98 points)
Season Series: Rangers won 3 of 4, Pittsburgh's only win came via shootout
Stanley Cup Odds: New York 5/1 (best); Pittsburgh 16/1 (9th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "I don't have a skull. Or bones..." -Olaf
The Breakdown: Is this finally 'The Year' for the Blueshirts? Last year they came darn close, with marathon playoff series leading to a Cup defeat at the hands of the Kings. But with nearly all the key pieces back for the Rangers and some important pieces also added, things are trending upwards in a big way. The Rangers depth on offense (Rick Nash, Derek Brassard, Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan, Mats Zaccarello) and defense (Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Keith Yandle) are scary enough. And on top of that you have to stare down Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes? These guys are Cup favorites for a reason.
The Penguins have been among the East's elite for the past decade, but injuries have decimated the squad. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are always a risk to steal a game or two, but the Rangers have Pittsburgh outmatched in nearly every element of the game.
The Pick: Unless Lundqvist lays an egg in Game 1 and the "We Want (Cam) Talbot!!" hoopla tears the team apart, the Rangers should dust off the beatup Pens rather quickly.
Rangers in Five
#2M Washington Capitals (101 points) vs. #3M New York Islanders (101 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with three of for games needing Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Washington 18/1 (12th best); New York 20/1 (14th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "Oh Anna... if there was only someone out there who loved you." -Hans
The Breakdown: Ever since the Islanders opened the year winning four straight, it's been a dream season for the Nassau Coliseum's swan song. The Isles even flirting with the top position in the conference for a short period. But it's been a rough finish to the year. Kyle Okposo sustained a midseason eye injury and following his return, did not maintain his torrid pre-injury production. Current injuries to forward Mikhail Grabovski and defenseman Travis Hamonic are also quite concerning. But the biggest worry of all is that goaltender Jaroslav Halak may be showing signs of burnout. The Islanders had some horrific losses down the stretch- which featured blown third period leads and a staggering amount of goals surrendered in the final minute of periods. But despite all the bad, the Islanders made the tournament thanks to the brilliance of franchise player John Tavares. Putting together an MVP caliber season, Tavares netted 86 points while Okposo was second on the team with...51. Tavares improves anybody who plays alongside him, and scoring (top 5 in the NHL) isn't the issue. Ryan Strome, Anders Lee, Frans Nielson, Nikolay Kulemin, Brock Nelson & co. will do their part.
It's all about whether the Islander defense can stiffen up and counteract the terrifying Alex Ovechkin-led Capital attack. Washington is a balanced squad- in the top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed. Ovechkin is flanked by fellow stay Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, and Troy Brouwer. Islander defenders will have a tough task locking the Caps down 5-on-5, and even more trouble with the top-ranked Capitals powerplay unit. With Hamonic out, expect Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy to have preposterously high ice time numbers. Goalie Braden Holtby has been a workhorse for Washington, with 73(!!) starts this season. He has been stellar throughout, and Washington is hoping that those same Halak-type burnout questions do not manifest themselves.
The Pick: Washington comes in playing much better hockey- that's indisputable. But as the season point totals indicate, these squads are neck and neck. Call it pageantry, call it lunacy...but doesn't the Islanders script for the final season at the Coliseum just beg for a postseason showdown with the Rangers? If both teams take care of business, that matchup will be secured. Few doubt that the Rangers will hold up their end of the bargain...and here's one that believes the underdog Islanders find a way.
Islanders in Seven
#1A Montreal Canadiens (110 points) vs. (WC) Ottawa Senators (99 points)
Season Series: Senators won 3-1
Stanley Cup Odds: Montreal 10/1 (6th best); Ottawa 18/1 (11th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "Who marries someone that they just met?" -Kristoff
The Breakdown: Nobody wanted to play these streaking Senators. Ottawa seemed dead in the water a few weeks ago, only to sizzle off a 21-6 conclusion to the season. It's a strange squad whose leading scorer is a defenseman (Erik Karlsson) and second leading scorer is a rookie (Mark Stone). But they also happen to have a goalie who went 20-1-2 on the season. And that is not a typo. Andrew Hammond is the straw that stirs this drink for Ottawa. But he has no playoff experience, and they guy standing across from him in Montreal's net...
...is likely the MVP of the league this season. Carey Price has gone wire to wire as the best goalie in the league, putting up a transcendent season. 44 wins and a sub-2.00 goals against average is staggering to see. But much depends on the health of leading scorer Max Pacioretti, who suffered a nasty injury earlier in the season.
The Pick: Many folks are all about this upset, but Price will outshine the young Hammond. Ottawa should hold its head very high for making it this far, but
Canadiens in Six
#2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points) vs. #3A Detroit Red Wings (100 points)
Season Series: Lightning won 3-1, with one game needing Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Tampa Bay 12/1 (8th best); Detroit 20/1 (13th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "This is awkward... I'm awkward, you're gorgeous - wait what?" -Anna
The Breakdown: Detroit has been a staple in these playoffs for the last 600 years, but this isn't a classic WIngs squad. Injuries, uncertainties in net, and transitional growing pains have left this a very vulnerable Detroit squad. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk have plenty of experience, but will need plenty of help around.
The Lightning, conversely, look primed for a deep run. Steven Stamkos leads an explosive offense and Ben Bishop has been tremendous between the pipes.
The Pick: Detroit has the storied history, but Tampa's time is now.
Lightning in Five
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. (WC) Winnipeg Jets (99 points)
Season Series: Ducks won all three matchups, but two went to Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Anaheim 9/1 (4th best); Winnipeg 25/1 (16th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "It's time to see what I can do- to test the limits and break through." -Elsa
The Breakdown: Yet again, the Ducks have put together a monster regular season to earn the West's top seed. But in one of the most topsy-turvy stats I've ever seen, Anaheim won 27 more games than they lost in regulation- and yet scored just 10 more goals than they allowed throughout the season. Yes, apparently that's possible...by being very clutch in one-goal games and having very very off bad nights where they got shellacked. Since winning the Cup in 2007, the Ducks have had plenty of playoff disappointments following big regular seasons. Usual suspects Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry lead the offense along with playoff veteran Ryan Kesler, playing in his first season for Anaheim. Frederik Anderson will start in goal for the series, with John Gibson also playing a big role during the regular season. But with an offense that wasn't in the NHL's top 10 in scoring, and a defense that was in the NHL bottom 10 for goals allowed, this is one of the more confusing, pedestrian top seeds we have seen in a while.
You're not going to find many marquis names on Winnipeg (perhaps hulking defenseman Dustin Byfuglien qualifies) but they have a goalie that has played his tail off in closing out the year. Don't ask me how to pronounce Ondrej Pavelec...just know that if he picks up where he left off in finishing the regular season, the Ducks are in deep doodoo. When looking for playoff upsets, nothing is more compelling than the hot goalie.
Elsa's quote applies to both teams for different reasons. Due to their underwhelming stats, folks are seeing the Ducks as ripe for the picking. They need to prove they're not in for another letdown. The Jets, meanwhile, are in their first playoff series since relocating back to Winnipeg in 2011. Expect those fans to be juuuuust a little pumped to cheer on the upset.
The Pick: A very tough series to pick, but Winnipeg just seems of have a bit too many eggs in its goaltender's basket. If Pavelec keeps it going and steals this series away, all power to him and the Jets. But the Ducks are a team of veterans (a reason their success in one-goal games may not be quite as fluky as people think) and are more complete from top to bottom. Winnipeg will win one at home for its deserving fans, but Anaheim closes the book on this one quickly.
Ducks in Five.
#2P Vancouver Canucks (101 points) vs. #3P Calgary Flames (97 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Canucks won coming in OT
Stanley Cup Odds: Vancouver 16/1 (9th best); Calgary 25/1 (16th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote:"I don't know why, but I've always loved the idea of summer...and sun... and all things hot..." -Olaf
The Breakdown: If you take a look at the Flames roster, and then the Kings roster, and then told folks that Calgary beat out LA for a playoff spot...most hockey aficionados may give themselves a mild concussion from so much head-scratching. Nobody's every heard of anybody on the Flames (though Jiri Hudler is nearly a point-per-game forward) and their best overall player Mark Giordano has been out for months with a biceps injury. But Calgary is a balanced team that finds a way to accomplish the most important of tasks: finding the back of the net. They are 6th in the NHL in goals scored, and experienced goalie Jonas Hiller will start the series.
Vancouver has the more explosive-yet-topheavy attack, with the Sedin teams and Radim Vrbata each eclipsing 60 points on the season. The Canucks special teams- which tend to make or break teams this time of year- have been stellar. The power play and penalty kill each rank in the NHL top 10. Goalie Eddie Lack has impressive peripheral numbers, but he lacks any significant playoff experience.
The Pick: See the Frozen quote above. No hockey playoffs are complete without at least one "wait...what?" first round result. Take the Flames. And the sun. And all things hot. Calgary finds a way to out-fun their Canadian brethren.
Flames in Seven.
#1C St. Louis Blues (109 points) vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild (100 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Blues win coming in a shootout
Stanley Cup Odds: Blues 8.5/1 (3rd best); Wild 9/1 (5th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "And you...is there sorcery in you, too? Are you a monster, too?" -Duke
The Breakdown: Whoa, nellie, look at those Stanley Cup odds! A first round matchup consisting of two 100-point teams is always a treat, and this one looks to be a classic. The Blues have once again put together an unbelievable squad, in the NHL's top-5 in goals scored, goals allowed, and power play. Vladamir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen, David Backes, and T.J. Oshie are all a handful to deal with, while Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex Pietrangelo leads what many consider to be the best defense in the sport. It's always scary to thrust a rookie into the hotbed that is the NHL playoffs, but Jake Allen has been tremendous throughout the regular season and will get the nod.
The Wild also boast some big names in Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Ryan Suter...but their most important player was midseason trade acquisition Devan Dubnyk. In just half a season, he complied 27 wins an a sub-1.80 goals against average. Jaw-dropping numbers.
The Pick: The Wild have really come on strong to finish the season, and those lofty Cup odds are no fluke. But they got a real tough first-round draw in this St. Louis squad. As long as Allen doesn't get the willies in his first playoff action, the Blues should squeak by.
Blues in Seven
#2C Nashville Predators (104 points) vs. #3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks lead 3-1, with two games needing OT
Stanley Cup Odds: Predators 12/1 (7th best); Blackhawks 7/1 (2nd best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "You don't have to live in fear...cause for the first time in forever, I will be right here." -Anna
The Breakdown: Poor, poor Nashville...The Predators sat atop the NHL for so much of the regular season and seemingly withstood a midseason injury to franchise goalie Pekka Rinne..only to slip up at the end and lose their final six games. Their penance is a first-round date with the Blackhawks, with superstar Patrick Kane finally returning to Chicago's lineup (inspiring the Frozen quote above.) Rinne can be the best in the world when he's on, but the Predator goalie has struggled mightily to be himself lately. Chicago's Corey Crawford has proven himself to be more than capable in his own right, and the Blackhawks surrounding personnel simply outmatches what Nashville brings to the table. Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, & co. are poised for another deep run.
The Pick: It's hard to show such disrespect to a Nashville team that had such an impressive regular season. But Chicago's ability to stay elite even without their superstar showed how truly scary they will be now that he's back.
Blackhawks in Six.
It's finally, finally here.
Tonight begins the 2015 NHL Playoffs. The season started in October with 30 teams dreaming the ultimate dream of raising the Stanley Cup, and that list has now been whittled down to 16. Included in these 16 are a Rangers team looking to return to the Cup Final after falling short against the Kings last year; as well as an Islanders team looking to write a fairytale ending to its final season at Nassau Coliseum.
These hockey playoffs are the crapshoot of all crapshoots. The upcoming basketball playoffs will also invite 16 teams to the dance...but in reality there are only 4-5 true contenders. In the NHL, seeding is just a number. As the 'Reset' button is pushed on everything from the past 6 months and everybody is now 0-0, it can be a hot goalie, clicking power play, playing on home ice, etc. that makes an underdog team greater than the sum of its parts.
It's why the Bruins and defending-champion Kings were so devastated to lose out on their playoff spots in the final week. These teams weren't playing for a boost in morale & for the right to get blown off the ice by the top seeds in their conference. No. If you're in this tournament, you can authentically win this tournament. Simple as that.
While that part may be simple, picking out who the heck is gonna win this thing is the polar opposite. The puck drops tonight on four of the eight first round series, so let's take a look at what's in store.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1M New York Rangers (113 points) vs. (WC) Pittsburgh Penguins (98 points)
Season Series: Rangers won 3 of 4, Pittsburgh's only win came via shootout
Stanley Cup Odds: New York 5/1 (best); Pittsburgh 16/1 (9th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "I don't have a skull. Or bones..." -Olaf
The Breakdown: Is this finally 'The Year' for the Blueshirts? Last year they came darn close, with marathon playoff series leading to a Cup defeat at the hands of the Kings. But with nearly all the key pieces back for the Rangers and some important pieces also added, things are trending upwards in a big way. The Rangers depth on offense (Rick Nash, Derek Brassard, Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan, Mats Zaccarello) and defense (Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Keith Yandle) are scary enough. And on top of that you have to stare down Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes? These guys are Cup favorites for a reason.
The Penguins have been among the East's elite for the past decade, but injuries have decimated the squad. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are always a risk to steal a game or two, but the Rangers have Pittsburgh outmatched in nearly every element of the game.
The Pick: Unless Lundqvist lays an egg in Game 1 and the "We Want (Cam) Talbot!!" hoopla tears the team apart, the Rangers should dust off the beatup Pens rather quickly.
Rangers in Five
#2M Washington Capitals (101 points) vs. #3M New York Islanders (101 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with three of for games needing Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Washington 18/1 (12th best); New York 20/1 (14th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "Oh Anna... if there was only someone out there who loved you." -Hans
The Breakdown: Ever since the Islanders opened the year winning four straight, it's been a dream season for the Nassau Coliseum's swan song. The Isles even flirting with the top position in the conference for a short period. But it's been a rough finish to the year. Kyle Okposo sustained a midseason eye injury and following his return, did not maintain his torrid pre-injury production. Current injuries to forward Mikhail Grabovski and defenseman Travis Hamonic are also quite concerning. But the biggest worry of all is that goaltender Jaroslav Halak may be showing signs of burnout. The Islanders had some horrific losses down the stretch- which featured blown third period leads and a staggering amount of goals surrendered in the final minute of periods. But despite all the bad, the Islanders made the tournament thanks to the brilliance of franchise player John Tavares. Putting together an MVP caliber season, Tavares netted 86 points while Okposo was second on the team with...51. Tavares improves anybody who plays alongside him, and scoring (top 5 in the NHL) isn't the issue. Ryan Strome, Anders Lee, Frans Nielson, Nikolay Kulemin, Brock Nelson & co. will do their part.
It's all about whether the Islander defense can stiffen up and counteract the terrifying Alex Ovechkin-led Capital attack. Washington is a balanced squad- in the top 10 in both goals scored and goals allowed. Ovechkin is flanked by fellow stay Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, and Troy Brouwer. Islander defenders will have a tough task locking the Caps down 5-on-5, and even more trouble with the top-ranked Capitals powerplay unit. With Hamonic out, expect Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy to have preposterously high ice time numbers. Goalie Braden Holtby has been a workhorse for Washington, with 73(!!) starts this season. He has been stellar throughout, and Washington is hoping that those same Halak-type burnout questions do not manifest themselves.
The Pick: Washington comes in playing much better hockey- that's indisputable. But as the season point totals indicate, these squads are neck and neck. Call it pageantry, call it lunacy...but doesn't the Islanders script for the final season at the Coliseum just beg for a postseason showdown with the Rangers? If both teams take care of business, that matchup will be secured. Few doubt that the Rangers will hold up their end of the bargain...and here's one that believes the underdog Islanders find a way.
Islanders in Seven
#1A Montreal Canadiens (110 points) vs. (WC) Ottawa Senators (99 points)
Season Series: Senators won 3-1
Stanley Cup Odds: Montreal 10/1 (6th best); Ottawa 18/1 (11th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "Who marries someone that they just met?" -Kristoff
The Breakdown: Nobody wanted to play these streaking Senators. Ottawa seemed dead in the water a few weeks ago, only to sizzle off a 21-6 conclusion to the season. It's a strange squad whose leading scorer is a defenseman (Erik Karlsson) and second leading scorer is a rookie (Mark Stone). But they also happen to have a goalie who went 20-1-2 on the season. And that is not a typo. Andrew Hammond is the straw that stirs this drink for Ottawa. But he has no playoff experience, and they guy standing across from him in Montreal's net...
...is likely the MVP of the league this season. Carey Price has gone wire to wire as the best goalie in the league, putting up a transcendent season. 44 wins and a sub-2.00 goals against average is staggering to see. But much depends on the health of leading scorer Max Pacioretti, who suffered a nasty injury earlier in the season.
The Pick: Many folks are all about this upset, but Price will outshine the young Hammond. Ottawa should hold its head very high for making it this far, but
Canadiens in Six
#2A Tampa Bay Lightning (108 points) vs. #3A Detroit Red Wings (100 points)
Season Series: Lightning won 3-1, with one game needing Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Tampa Bay 12/1 (8th best); Detroit 20/1 (13th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "This is awkward... I'm awkward, you're gorgeous - wait what?" -Anna
The Breakdown: Detroit has been a staple in these playoffs for the last 600 years, but this isn't a classic WIngs squad. Injuries, uncertainties in net, and transitional growing pains have left this a very vulnerable Detroit squad. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk have plenty of experience, but will need plenty of help around.
The Lightning, conversely, look primed for a deep run. Steven Stamkos leads an explosive offense and Ben Bishop has been tremendous between the pipes.
The Pick: Detroit has the storied history, but Tampa's time is now.
Lightning in Five
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1P Anaheim Ducks (109 points) vs. (WC) Winnipeg Jets (99 points)
Season Series: Ducks won all three matchups, but two went to Overtime
Stanley Cup Odds: Anaheim 9/1 (4th best); Winnipeg 25/1 (16th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "It's time to see what I can do- to test the limits and break through." -Elsa
The Breakdown: Yet again, the Ducks have put together a monster regular season to earn the West's top seed. But in one of the most topsy-turvy stats I've ever seen, Anaheim won 27 more games than they lost in regulation- and yet scored just 10 more goals than they allowed throughout the season. Yes, apparently that's possible...by being very clutch in one-goal games and having very very off bad nights where they got shellacked. Since winning the Cup in 2007, the Ducks have had plenty of playoff disappointments following big regular seasons. Usual suspects Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry lead the offense along with playoff veteran Ryan Kesler, playing in his first season for Anaheim. Frederik Anderson will start in goal for the series, with John Gibson also playing a big role during the regular season. But with an offense that wasn't in the NHL's top 10 in scoring, and a defense that was in the NHL bottom 10 for goals allowed, this is one of the more confusing, pedestrian top seeds we have seen in a while.
You're not going to find many marquis names on Winnipeg (perhaps hulking defenseman Dustin Byfuglien qualifies) but they have a goalie that has played his tail off in closing out the year. Don't ask me how to pronounce Ondrej Pavelec...just know that if he picks up where he left off in finishing the regular season, the Ducks are in deep doodoo. When looking for playoff upsets, nothing is more compelling than the hot goalie.
Elsa's quote applies to both teams for different reasons. Due to their underwhelming stats, folks are seeing the Ducks as ripe for the picking. They need to prove they're not in for another letdown. The Jets, meanwhile, are in their first playoff series since relocating back to Winnipeg in 2011. Expect those fans to be juuuuust a little pumped to cheer on the upset.
The Pick: A very tough series to pick, but Winnipeg just seems of have a bit too many eggs in its goaltender's basket. If Pavelec keeps it going and steals this series away, all power to him and the Jets. But the Ducks are a team of veterans (a reason their success in one-goal games may not be quite as fluky as people think) and are more complete from top to bottom. Winnipeg will win one at home for its deserving fans, but Anaheim closes the book on this one quickly.
Ducks in Five.
#2P Vancouver Canucks (101 points) vs. #3P Calgary Flames (97 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Canucks won coming in OT
Stanley Cup Odds: Vancouver 16/1 (9th best); Calgary 25/1 (16th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote:"I don't know why, but I've always loved the idea of summer...and sun... and all things hot..." -Olaf
The Breakdown: If you take a look at the Flames roster, and then the Kings roster, and then told folks that Calgary beat out LA for a playoff spot...most hockey aficionados may give themselves a mild concussion from so much head-scratching. Nobody's every heard of anybody on the Flames (though Jiri Hudler is nearly a point-per-game forward) and their best overall player Mark Giordano has been out for months with a biceps injury. But Calgary is a balanced team that finds a way to accomplish the most important of tasks: finding the back of the net. They are 6th in the NHL in goals scored, and experienced goalie Jonas Hiller will start the series.
Vancouver has the more explosive-yet-topheavy attack, with the Sedin teams and Radim Vrbata each eclipsing 60 points on the season. The Canucks special teams- which tend to make or break teams this time of year- have been stellar. The power play and penalty kill each rank in the NHL top 10. Goalie Eddie Lack has impressive peripheral numbers, but he lacks any significant playoff experience.
The Pick: See the Frozen quote above. No hockey playoffs are complete without at least one "wait...what?" first round result. Take the Flames. And the sun. And all things hot. Calgary finds a way to out-fun their Canadian brethren.
Flames in Seven.
#1C St. Louis Blues (109 points) vs. (WC) Minnesota Wild (100 points)
Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Blues win coming in a shootout
Stanley Cup Odds: Blues 8.5/1 (3rd best); Wild 9/1 (5th best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "And you...is there sorcery in you, too? Are you a monster, too?" -Duke
The Breakdown: Whoa, nellie, look at those Stanley Cup odds! A first round matchup consisting of two 100-point teams is always a treat, and this one looks to be a classic. The Blues have once again put together an unbelievable squad, in the NHL's top-5 in goals scored, goals allowed, and power play. Vladamir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen, David Backes, and T.J. Oshie are all a handful to deal with, while Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex Pietrangelo leads what many consider to be the best defense in the sport. It's always scary to thrust a rookie into the hotbed that is the NHL playoffs, but Jake Allen has been tremendous throughout the regular season and will get the nod.
The Wild also boast some big names in Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Ryan Suter...but their most important player was midseason trade acquisition Devan Dubnyk. In just half a season, he complied 27 wins an a sub-1.80 goals against average. Jaw-dropping numbers.
The Pick: The Wild have really come on strong to finish the season, and those lofty Cup odds are no fluke. But they got a real tough first-round draw in this St. Louis squad. As long as Allen doesn't get the willies in his first playoff action, the Blues should squeak by.
Blues in Seven
#2C Nashville Predators (104 points) vs. #3C Chicago Blackhawks (102 points)
Season Series: Blackhawks lead 3-1, with two games needing OT
Stanley Cup Odds: Predators 12/1 (7th best); Blackhawks 7/1 (2nd best)
Relevant Frozen Quote: "You don't have to live in fear...cause for the first time in forever, I will be right here." -Anna
The Breakdown: Poor, poor Nashville...The Predators sat atop the NHL for so much of the regular season and seemingly withstood a midseason injury to franchise goalie Pekka Rinne..only to slip up at the end and lose their final six games. Their penance is a first-round date with the Blackhawks, with superstar Patrick Kane finally returning to Chicago's lineup (inspiring the Frozen quote above.) Rinne can be the best in the world when he's on, but the Predator goalie has struggled mightily to be himself lately. Chicago's Corey Crawford has proven himself to be more than capable in his own right, and the Blackhawks surrounding personnel simply outmatches what Nashville brings to the table. Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, & co. are poised for another deep run.
The Pick: It's hard to show such disrespect to a Nashville team that had such an impressive regular season. But Chicago's ability to stay elite even without their superstar showed how truly scary they will be now that he's back.
Blackhawks in Six.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Super Bowl XLIX Pick-off
Welp... it all comes down to tonight. After sitting through an interminable two weeks of Deflategate, Patriots fans urging everyone that "there's nothing to see here" regarding Deflategate, Marshawn Lynch not talking, Richard Sherman baby mama drama, and the 'Firework v. Roar' Katy Perry halftime opening song debate....Super Bowl Sunday is finally here! Not much more of a preamble is needed- we've already waited long enough, plus I gotta keep an eye on the barbecue to make sure the sausages don't char. Without further adieu!
SUPER BOWL XLIX
No. 1 New England Patriots (14-4) vs. No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: Pick'em!
The Lowdown: It's the matchup that everyone's been waiting to see, despite the noteworthy unlike-ability of both these squads. Nobody outside of New England enjoys seeing the Patriots win due to their checkered past (not even going into it...enough is enough) and overall frosty demeanor. Seattle, in their own right, followed their miracle victory last week by crying as if they were middle-aged mothers who just found out they were in attendance at an Oprah's "Favorite Things" taping.
These two top seeds certainly their bumps on the way to the Big Game. The Pats got all they could handle from the Ravens in the Divisional Round, falling behind by 14 points on two different occasions. But unlikely as that eventual victory was, the Seahawks totally out-did them with a complete Houdini act against Green Bay in the NFC Championship. There came a point in the fourth quarter where about two dozen things had to break right for Seattle to win. And just like dominos, each one came through.
But then again, there's a reason these two were the top seeds in their conference, and a reason both are the final teams standing. New England has Tom Brady orchestrating a potent pass offense, with some serious help from tight end Rob Gronkowski. A great offense is nothing new for the Pats- but their revamped defense has been a welcomed change for their squad. Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Devin McCourty...all the sudden it's not so easy to chuck the ball on them anymore.
Well, Seattle doesn't care very much about tossing the ball anyway. Running back Marshawn Lynch- as knuckle-headed as he ay be from time to time- is the force behind everything the Seahawks do on offense. He is a punishing runner, capable receiver, and someone who is a nightmare to tackle for four straight quarters. Quarterback Russell Wilson works in the pass and runs of his own to complete the offense. But much like last season's historic unit, Seattle's identity is in its defense. The same defense that refused to let the NFC Championship get out of control when Wilson threw interception after interception early in the game. The same defense that terrified Peyton Manning and the Broncos straight out of the building in last year's Super Bowl. Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Michael Bennett...there are stars every place you look.
So with the two potent defenses taking the field, many folks are going south on the 47.5 over/under line. The key to the game will be Lynch's ability to gash New England's defensive front vs. Brady's ability to maneuver his way around Seattle's suffocating secondary.
The Pick: Very little drama in this one. I thought the Colts had a chance to take down New England, and maybe they would have if that Pats hadn't cheated (one last trolling job to take into the long offseason.) Seattle played some of the worst football they were capable of ever playing two weeks ago, yet still found a way. Though they won't quite have their vicious homefield advantage in the Super Bowl, early reports are that the Seahawks:Patriots fan ratio is tilted heavy towards the west coasters. I saw what this defense did in eviscerating Denver last year, and I saw them somehow keep the Seahawks in a game from hell two weeks ago. New England is a great team...and Seattle is just an itty bitty bit better. The last time the Patriots played a Super Bowl in Arizona,I got definitive proof there is indeed an all-loving God looking over the universe things didn't go as planned. Same story, new chapter. Look on the bright side, Patriots fans....at least it's not Eli Manning part 3.0
Seahawks 16, Patriots 10
SUPER BOWL XLIX
No. 1 New England Patriots (14-4) vs. No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: Pick'em!
The Lowdown: It's the matchup that everyone's been waiting to see, despite the noteworthy unlike-ability of both these squads. Nobody outside of New England enjoys seeing the Patriots win due to their checkered past (not even going into it...enough is enough) and overall frosty demeanor. Seattle, in their own right, followed their miracle victory last week by crying as if they were middle-aged mothers who just found out they were in attendance at an Oprah's "Favorite Things" taping.
These two top seeds certainly their bumps on the way to the Big Game. The Pats got all they could handle from the Ravens in the Divisional Round, falling behind by 14 points on two different occasions. But unlikely as that eventual victory was, the Seahawks totally out-did them with a complete Houdini act against Green Bay in the NFC Championship. There came a point in the fourth quarter where about two dozen things had to break right for Seattle to win. And just like dominos, each one came through.
But then again, there's a reason these two were the top seeds in their conference, and a reason both are the final teams standing. New England has Tom Brady orchestrating a potent pass offense, with some serious help from tight end Rob Gronkowski. A great offense is nothing new for the Pats- but their revamped defense has been a welcomed change for their squad. Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Devin McCourty...all the sudden it's not so easy to chuck the ball on them anymore.
Well, Seattle doesn't care very much about tossing the ball anyway. Running back Marshawn Lynch- as knuckle-headed as he ay be from time to time- is the force behind everything the Seahawks do on offense. He is a punishing runner, capable receiver, and someone who is a nightmare to tackle for four straight quarters. Quarterback Russell Wilson works in the pass and runs of his own to complete the offense. But much like last season's historic unit, Seattle's identity is in its defense. The same defense that refused to let the NFC Championship get out of control when Wilson threw interception after interception early in the game. The same defense that terrified Peyton Manning and the Broncos straight out of the building in last year's Super Bowl. Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Michael Bennett...there are stars every place you look.
So with the two potent defenses taking the field, many folks are going south on the 47.5 over/under line. The key to the game will be Lynch's ability to gash New England's defensive front vs. Brady's ability to maneuver his way around Seattle's suffocating secondary.
The Pick: Very little drama in this one. I thought the Colts had a chance to take down New England, and maybe they would have if that Pats hadn't cheated (one last trolling job to take into the long offseason.) Seattle played some of the worst football they were capable of ever playing two weeks ago, yet still found a way. Though they won't quite have their vicious homefield advantage in the Super Bowl, early reports are that the Seahawks:Patriots fan ratio is tilted heavy towards the west coasters. I saw what this defense did in eviscerating Denver last year, and I saw them somehow keep the Seahawks in a game from hell two weeks ago. New England is a great team...and Seattle is just an itty bitty bit better. The last time the Patriots played a Super Bowl in Arizona,
Seahawks 16, Patriots 10
Sunday, January 18, 2015
Conference Title Pickoff: Who's Desert-Bound?
Unbelievable as it is, there are just three games remaining in this NFL season (3.5 games if you count the Pro Bowl.) Four teams are left standing, and each will put up their dukes this evening and have it out. Unsurprisingly, both top seeds are sizable favorites in their home stadiums. But both of today's underdogs have superstar quarterbacks, one of whom has won a Super Bowl in his own right.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 2 Green Bay Packers (13-4) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Kickoff: 3pm
The Line: Seattle by 8
The Lowdown: These two squads return to the scene of September 4, 2014's NFL season opener. Following that 36-16 beatdown by Seattle, talks of a repeat Seahawks championship season got a'brewin. Those talks simmered a bit as Seattle stumbled to lose 3 of its next 5 games, but the Hawks regained their mojo in dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage. The results? Seattle has won 10 of its last 11, including a 31-17 thumping of Carolina in last week's divisional round. Though that game was more tightly contested than the final score would indicate, therein lies the beauty of how Seattle is so effective. Things don't have to go perfectly nor pretty for the Hawks to find a way. Playing in front of their home crowd, they chip away and chip away, patiently rushing the ball with Marshawn Lynch and wearing out their opponent. Though he doesn't get the superstar accolades of his three quarterback counterparts this weekend, Russell Wilson brutalized the Panthers with third down dagger after third down dagger last week. And when push comes to shove, it's nearly impossible to go 60 minutes against this defense without a killer mistake (i.e. Kam Chancellor's game-sealing interception return touchdown of Cam Newton last week.) Seattle is confident as can be, and as mentioned, simply outclassed Green Bay earlier this season.
The Pack, meanwhile, come in with folks still talking about their game against Dallas and Dez Bryant's catch/no-catch debate. Though everyone has their own opinion on that play, it's tough to say Rodgers wouldn't have found a way to pull out that victory. He was near flawless in the second half after a rocky start. Questions still linger about his injured calf, which still isn't 100% and is certainly playing a factor in the lofty 8 point spread of this matchup. With MVP favorite Rodgers firing on all cylinders, this line would probably be cut in half. But all the uncertainty surrounding his health affects everything the Packers try to do on offense. Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb are worthy offensive adversaries to take of Seattle's Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, & co. But if the centerpiece isn't there with a full canvas of his abilities, Green Bay will be in a real tough spot.
The Pick: Seattle really has this professional football stuff all figured out. Their rushing offense pounds opponents into submission, their defense pounds opponents into submission, and their quarterback is Mr. Cool in taking whatever the defense gives him and rolling along. Granted, their homefield advantage is over-discussed, but it also can't be denied. Though 8 points seems like quite a bit, it seems everytime I take that mindset into a game, the favorite proves why everyone bets so confidently in them. Unless Wilson uncharacteristically takes a mindset of "forget Brady, Luck, and Rodgers...I'LL SHOW YOU who the superstar quarterback is!" resulting in forcing passes and suffering turnovers, Seattle will do what has made it so successful two years running. The "repeat" talk got going in September. And it will reach a fever pitch tonight.
Seahawks 34, Packers 21
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at No. 1 New England Patriots (13-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: New England by 6.5
The Lowdown: Let this blog by the millionth place where you'll see the pun that this game is All About Luck. The Colts young quarterback has brought his team to the AFC Championship with staggeringly little help surrounding him. Indy is utterly fruitless in trying to run the football, they struggle mightily to stop the run, and their defensive secondary is marginal thanks to star corner Vontae Davis. But besides that, it's Andrew throwing left, Andrew throwing tight, Andrew throwing middle, and Andrew throwing deep. Playing in the weak AFC South, the Colts have feasted on a rather fluffy schedule this season in getting to the playoffs. But now that they're here? They've conquered every obstacle thrown their way. Yes, the Bengals were injured and stinky in round one- and Denver played one of the most confusingly inept games in the history of football last week- resulting in the firing of Broncos coach John Fox and possible retirement talk for Peyton Manning. But none of that is of the Colts' concern.
What is of their concern, however, is that Luck has gotten whipped by the Patriots in each of his career matchups against them. Last year's playoffs...this year's regular season...things have gotten ugly. Indianapolis has Andrew, and the Patriots have shown to have a quarterback and a whole lot more.
Speaking of New England, the Pats nearly ran into a buzzsaw last week against Baltimore. The Ravens came out quick and never relented, building two different 14 point leads in the game. But the Patriots never panicked, chipped away any chance they got, and at the end of the day they squeezed out the victory. It seemed like a true coin flip as to who the better team was, but now the question becomes whether Indy is better than that Ravens team. It's a tough call. But based on the Patriots' rampant success against the Colts during the Luck era, clearly New England enjoys the matchups that Indy has presented them.
The Pick: Despite knowing that Baltimore would be a live underdog, I shared my thoughts last week that this did not seem like a "one-and-done" Patriots team this time around. Revis and Browner on defense, Gronkowski on offense, etc. On the flip side of things, does this year's New England squad have the moxy of a Super Bowl bound team? Well, they sure seem more qualified than this Colts team. The Patriots have a better all-around offense, comparable all-around defense, and decided edges in coaching and homefield. But ya know what? The Broncos enjoyed all those edges against this Colts team last week. Expect a close game where Indy covers the spread. And when in doubt as to who will win, just remember that one team has Andrew Luck playing quarterback and one team does not have Andrew Luck playing quarterback. Somehow, someway:
Colts 27, Patriots 24
Thanks for reading. Enjoy the games!
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 2 Green Bay Packers (13-4) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Kickoff: 3pm
The Line: Seattle by 8
The Lowdown: These two squads return to the scene of September 4, 2014's NFL season opener. Following that 36-16 beatdown by Seattle, talks of a repeat Seahawks championship season got a'brewin. Those talks simmered a bit as Seattle stumbled to lose 3 of its next 5 games, but the Hawks regained their mojo in dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage. The results? Seattle has won 10 of its last 11, including a 31-17 thumping of Carolina in last week's divisional round. Though that game was more tightly contested than the final score would indicate, therein lies the beauty of how Seattle is so effective. Things don't have to go perfectly nor pretty for the Hawks to find a way. Playing in front of their home crowd, they chip away and chip away, patiently rushing the ball with Marshawn Lynch and wearing out their opponent. Though he doesn't get the superstar accolades of his three quarterback counterparts this weekend, Russell Wilson brutalized the Panthers with third down dagger after third down dagger last week. And when push comes to shove, it's nearly impossible to go 60 minutes against this defense without a killer mistake (i.e. Kam Chancellor's game-sealing interception return touchdown of Cam Newton last week.) Seattle is confident as can be, and as mentioned, simply outclassed Green Bay earlier this season.
The Pack, meanwhile, come in with folks still talking about their game against Dallas and Dez Bryant's catch/no-catch debate. Though everyone has their own opinion on that play, it's tough to say Rodgers wouldn't have found a way to pull out that victory. He was near flawless in the second half after a rocky start. Questions still linger about his injured calf, which still isn't 100% and is certainly playing a factor in the lofty 8 point spread of this matchup. With MVP favorite Rodgers firing on all cylinders, this line would probably be cut in half. But all the uncertainty surrounding his health affects everything the Packers try to do on offense. Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb are worthy offensive adversaries to take of Seattle's Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, & co. But if the centerpiece isn't there with a full canvas of his abilities, Green Bay will be in a real tough spot.
The Pick: Seattle really has this professional football stuff all figured out. Their rushing offense pounds opponents into submission, their defense pounds opponents into submission, and their quarterback is Mr. Cool in taking whatever the defense gives him and rolling along. Granted, their homefield advantage is over-discussed, but it also can't be denied. Though 8 points seems like quite a bit, it seems everytime I take that mindset into a game, the favorite proves why everyone bets so confidently in them. Unless Wilson uncharacteristically takes a mindset of "forget Brady, Luck, and Rodgers...I'LL SHOW YOU who the superstar quarterback is!" resulting in forcing passes and suffering turnovers, Seattle will do what has made it so successful two years running. The "repeat" talk got going in September. And it will reach a fever pitch tonight.
Seahawks 34, Packers 21
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at No. 1 New England Patriots (13-4)
Kickoff: 6:30pm
The Line: New England by 6.5
The Lowdown: Let this blog by the millionth place where you'll see the pun that this game is All About Luck. The Colts young quarterback has brought his team to the AFC Championship with staggeringly little help surrounding him. Indy is utterly fruitless in trying to run the football, they struggle mightily to stop the run, and their defensive secondary is marginal thanks to star corner Vontae Davis. But besides that, it's Andrew throwing left, Andrew throwing tight, Andrew throwing middle, and Andrew throwing deep. Playing in the weak AFC South, the Colts have feasted on a rather fluffy schedule this season in getting to the playoffs. But now that they're here? They've conquered every obstacle thrown their way. Yes, the Bengals were injured and stinky in round one- and Denver played one of the most confusingly inept games in the history of football last week- resulting in the firing of Broncos coach John Fox and possible retirement talk for Peyton Manning. But none of that is of the Colts' concern.
What is of their concern, however, is that Luck has gotten whipped by the Patriots in each of his career matchups against them. Last year's playoffs...this year's regular season...things have gotten ugly. Indianapolis has Andrew, and the Patriots have shown to have a quarterback and a whole lot more.
Speaking of New England, the Pats nearly ran into a buzzsaw last week against Baltimore. The Ravens came out quick and never relented, building two different 14 point leads in the game. But the Patriots never panicked, chipped away any chance they got, and at the end of the day they squeezed out the victory. It seemed like a true coin flip as to who the better team was, but now the question becomes whether Indy is better than that Ravens team. It's a tough call. But based on the Patriots' rampant success against the Colts during the Luck era, clearly New England enjoys the matchups that Indy has presented them.
The Pick: Despite knowing that Baltimore would be a live underdog, I shared my thoughts last week that this did not seem like a "one-and-done" Patriots team this time around. Revis and Browner on defense, Gronkowski on offense, etc. On the flip side of things, does this year's New England squad have the moxy of a Super Bowl bound team? Well, they sure seem more qualified than this Colts team. The Patriots have a better all-around offense, comparable all-around defense, and decided edges in coaching and homefield. But ya know what? The Broncos enjoyed all those edges against this Colts team last week. Expect a close game where Indy covers the spread. And when in doubt as to who will win, just remember that one team has Andrew Luck playing quarterback and one team does not have Andrew Luck playing quarterback. Somehow, someway:
Colts 27, Patriots 24
Thanks for reading. Enjoy the games!
Saturday, January 10, 2015
Divisional Round Saturday Playoff Pick'em
Greetings, all! And welcome to perhaps the highest quality weekend of football the NFL has to offer. Eight teams remain in the win-or-go-home playoffs, and following byes last week, all the top-seeds join the fun this time around.
The Wild Card weekend was a bit disappointing in regards to the brand of football played, but it still had its moments. Folks are still left in amazement over the penalty flag picked up in Dallas that helped spring the Cowboys comeback over Detroit, Baltimore's Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass using nothing but his toned thighs, and Arizona's Ryan Lindley set a new standard as to what constitutes an un-winnable starting quarterback.
At the end of the day, it was a 3-1 week picking against the spread. Carolina, Indianapolis, and Detroit came through while Pittsburgh was the lone blemish. This week's slate of games presents all kinds of challenges in terms of lofty spreads, injured superstars, and which team- if any- will keep us from seeing juggernaut matchups of Denver/New England and Seattle/Green Bay next week. So how will it all go down? Splendid for you to ask!
SATURDAY 1/10
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at No. 1 New England Patriots (12-4)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: New England by 7
The Lowdown: Patriots haters (present company happily included) will once again need to rally around the Ravens to take down Goliath. Baltimore has had some recent playoff success at Foxboro, are just two years removed from their own Super Bowl Championship. Quarterback Joe Flacco has a well-documented, mystifying ability to play at a level way higher than his regular season norm, and he out-gunned Pittsburgh's favored passing attack on the road last week. Running back Justin Forsett anchors a capable running game, and the Ravens' defense is quite stout in stopping the run as well. In an ideal world, Baltimore will ride Forsett like Secretariat. The less time Tom Brady has to carve up their vulnerable secondary, the better. Speaking of Brady, he had an MVP-type year after a very rocky start to the season. Though they didn't light up the scoreboard each and every week like in years past, the New England defense has their fans feeling like it's once again the glory days of the Bill Belichick era. Revis, Browner, McCourty, etc...suddenly you can't just chuck it at will on them. Just as he is every other game, Rob Grownkowski will be the key player, in his ability to dominate both before and after the catch. The Ravens struggled to make the playoffs, were underdogs on the road in the Wild Card round, and seem perfectly fine playing that role once again.
The Pick: Really looking forward to this one. Had Pittsburgh beaten Baltimore this week, it would have been one-man-team Andrew Luck and his Colts making the rough trip to New England. The vast majority of fans would agree that Baltimore presents the tougher matchup for these Patriots. But there's always the peril that once the divisional round arrives, folks desperately grasp for reason to predict the upsets rather than looking at games for what they are. This does not at all have the look of a one-and-done Patriots team. The defense is as good as its been in years, Grownkowski is 100% healthy, and as far as Darrelle Revis...just ask Jets fans the difference one guy can make on defense. Take Baltimore with the points, because 7 seems irrational. But as far as who's winning...well, I guess some dreams are indeed just meant for sleepytime.
Patriots 21, Ravens 20
No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Kickoff: 8:15pm
The Line: Seattle by 11.5
The Lowdown: The cat chasing the bird...it's a familiar storyline. A point spread as astronomical as 11.5 means there must be some unique storylines in play. And, well, there are. Carolina was a losing team during the regular season whose franchise player Cam Newton had been banged up, then got more banged up in a car accident, and looked rather ho-hum playing against the aforementioned Ryan Lindley & co. last week. Seattle, meanwhile, is the defending Super Bowl champions who have nearly all of their core players back, and also the most pronounced home field advantage in pro sports. Quarterback Russell Wilson, running back Marshawn Lynch, and the NFL's best defense have looked utterly dominant during their 9-1 stretch to finish the season. Carolina's only hope is that their potent rushing attack can set up some long pass pays over the top, and that their defense can hold down Wilson & co. The Panthers will need to be patient and determined in stopping Lynch, as Seattle often wears out its opponents late in the game. Seattle's one weakness is a not-so-great receiving corps, so if Carolina can play near-perfect football and keep things close, it may be able to get the crowd a bit nervous and rouse up thoughts of a stunner.
The Pick: A five-alarm upset alert is in order. Seattle is the better team from soup to nuts, but there's been a strange aura about Seattle since its dominating Super Bowl win over Denver last season. It wasn't the prototypical 12-4 season, as the Hawks were indeed sitting at just 3-3 at one point this season. Though it's great to get hot and roll off a bunch of games in a row, it may also create a speck of doubt if things don't go their way throughout this game. There have been troubling storylines with Lynch this year- his enormous fines for not talking to postgame media, his resulting bizarre/unpleasant interviews with that media, contract disagreements, his resentment of Percy Harvin being traded to the Jets mid-season. There's not a whole bunch of holes you can poke in a 12-4 defending champion, but Carolina has that moxy to them. Their NFC South division has been trashed all year, folks feel they don't belong, and very few think they can keep this one close, let alone win. But except for some receivers departing, these are the same guys who went 12-4 last year. While that season ended with disappointment in the divisonal round, Cam & co. flip the script and shock the nation.
Panthers 16, Seahawks 10
You know what? I need to get my brain in order and can't attempt to top that one by going into Sunday's games. Stay tuned- those will be up tomorrow. Enjoy Saturday's slate!
The Wild Card weekend was a bit disappointing in regards to the brand of football played, but it still had its moments. Folks are still left in amazement over the penalty flag picked up in Dallas that helped spring the Cowboys comeback over Detroit, Baltimore's Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass using nothing but his toned thighs, and Arizona's Ryan Lindley set a new standard as to what constitutes an un-winnable starting quarterback.
At the end of the day, it was a 3-1 week picking against the spread. Carolina, Indianapolis, and Detroit came through while Pittsburgh was the lone blemish. This week's slate of games presents all kinds of challenges in terms of lofty spreads, injured superstars, and which team- if any- will keep us from seeing juggernaut matchups of Denver/New England and Seattle/Green Bay next week. So how will it all go down? Splendid for you to ask!
SATURDAY 1/10
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at No. 1 New England Patriots (12-4)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: New England by 7
The Lowdown: Patriots haters (present company happily included) will once again need to rally around the Ravens to take down Goliath. Baltimore has had some recent playoff success at Foxboro, are just two years removed from their own Super Bowl Championship. Quarterback Joe Flacco has a well-documented, mystifying ability to play at a level way higher than his regular season norm, and he out-gunned Pittsburgh's favored passing attack on the road last week. Running back Justin Forsett anchors a capable running game, and the Ravens' defense is quite stout in stopping the run as well. In an ideal world, Baltimore will ride Forsett like Secretariat. The less time Tom Brady has to carve up their vulnerable secondary, the better. Speaking of Brady, he had an MVP-type year after a very rocky start to the season. Though they didn't light up the scoreboard each and every week like in years past, the New England defense has their fans feeling like it's once again the glory days of the Bill Belichick era. Revis, Browner, McCourty, etc...suddenly you can't just chuck it at will on them. Just as he is every other game, Rob Grownkowski will be the key player, in his ability to dominate both before and after the catch. The Ravens struggled to make the playoffs, were underdogs on the road in the Wild Card round, and seem perfectly fine playing that role once again.
The Pick: Really looking forward to this one. Had Pittsburgh beaten Baltimore this week, it would have been one-man-team Andrew Luck and his Colts making the rough trip to New England. The vast majority of fans would agree that Baltimore presents the tougher matchup for these Patriots. But there's always the peril that once the divisional round arrives, folks desperately grasp for reason to predict the upsets rather than looking at games for what they are. This does not at all have the look of a one-and-done Patriots team. The defense is as good as its been in years, Grownkowski is 100% healthy, and as far as Darrelle Revis...just ask Jets fans the difference one guy can make on defense. Take Baltimore with the points, because 7 seems irrational. But as far as who's winning...well, I guess some dreams are indeed just meant for sleepytime.
Patriots 21, Ravens 20
No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Kickoff: 8:15pm
The Line: Seattle by 11.5
The Lowdown: The cat chasing the bird...it's a familiar storyline. A point spread as astronomical as 11.5 means there must be some unique storylines in play. And, well, there are. Carolina was a losing team during the regular season whose franchise player Cam Newton had been banged up, then got more banged up in a car accident, and looked rather ho-hum playing against the aforementioned Ryan Lindley & co. last week. Seattle, meanwhile, is the defending Super Bowl champions who have nearly all of their core players back, and also the most pronounced home field advantage in pro sports. Quarterback Russell Wilson, running back Marshawn Lynch, and the NFL's best defense have looked utterly dominant during their 9-1 stretch to finish the season. Carolina's only hope is that their potent rushing attack can set up some long pass pays over the top, and that their defense can hold down Wilson & co. The Panthers will need to be patient and determined in stopping Lynch, as Seattle often wears out its opponents late in the game. Seattle's one weakness is a not-so-great receiving corps, so if Carolina can play near-perfect football and keep things close, it may be able to get the crowd a bit nervous and rouse up thoughts of a stunner.
The Pick: A five-alarm upset alert is in order. Seattle is the better team from soup to nuts, but there's been a strange aura about Seattle since its dominating Super Bowl win over Denver last season. It wasn't the prototypical 12-4 season, as the Hawks were indeed sitting at just 3-3 at one point this season. Though it's great to get hot and roll off a bunch of games in a row, it may also create a speck of doubt if things don't go their way throughout this game. There have been troubling storylines with Lynch this year- his enormous fines for not talking to postgame media, his resulting bizarre/unpleasant interviews with that media, contract disagreements, his resentment of Percy Harvin being traded to the Jets mid-season. There's not a whole bunch of holes you can poke in a 12-4 defending champion, but Carolina has that moxy to them. Their NFC South division has been trashed all year, folks feel they don't belong, and very few think they can keep this one close, let alone win. But except for some receivers departing, these are the same guys who went 12-4 last year. While that season ended with disappointment in the divisonal round, Cam & co. flip the script and shock the nation.
Panthers 16, Seahawks 10
You know what? I need to get my brain in order and can't attempt to top that one by going into Sunday's games. Stay tuned- those will be up tomorrow. Enjoy Saturday's slate!
Friday, January 2, 2015
2015 Playoff Pickoff- Wild Card Edition
Greetings and welcome back! It's playoff time in the NFL, and at long last it's time to offer up some picks that are sure to lose but sure to simultaneously be a whole lot of fun! First, a quick look back at my preseason playoff picks and how they fared during the regular season in 2014:
Predicted AFC playoff squads:
1. Broncos
2. Patriots
3. Bengals
4. Texans
5. Chargers
6. Colts
Real AFC playoff squads:
1. Patriots
2. Broncos
3. Steelers
4. Colts
5. Bengals
6. Ravens
Not an albatross! Texans were a big whiff and I didn't foresee the AFC North dominance, but the Chargers blew it on the last day when they had a playoff spot in the palm of their lightning bolts. But what can ya do? I'm grasping for as many straws/taking as many pats on the back as I can for the AFC picks because, the NFC on the other hand...
Predicted NFC playoff squads
1. Seahawks
2. Bears (twitching)
3. Eagles
4. Saints
5. Packers
6. Cardinals
Real NFC playoff squads
1. Seahawks
2. Packers
3. Cowboys
4. Panthers
5. Cardinals
6. Lions
Just 3 outta 6, and anybody on the planet could have predicted two of those correct teams (Seattle and Green Bay.) And those Bears....oy.
So the regular season may not have gone as planned, but that's nothing a perfect playoff pickoff (PPP) can't heal! It all starts with the four wildcard games this weekend, which all bring something great to the table and should be a real treat. Let's do this dance:
SATURDAY 1/3
No. 5 Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at No. 4 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: Carolina by 6.5
The Lowdown: Things start off with the NFL playoff's version of the Land of Misfit Toys. There is no misprint in the records above- Carolina lost more games than it won this year, but was still able to capture the NFC South crown. The Cardinals, meanwhile, got off to a scorching 9-1 start before losing both their starting quarterback AND backup quarterback. Arizona stumbled to a 2-4 finish to the season and now has something called a Ryan Lindley throwing the ball for them. Carolina had a nasty stretch where it didn't win a game from October 5-December 7 (0-6-1) but has since caught fire in going 4-0 down the stretch (albeit against very weak teams.) Nonetheless, with the division title and this playoff spot on the line, Carolina went into Atlanta's dome and eviscerated the Falcons 34-3 last week. Cam Newton had a very rocky season that had many questioning his health- and that was before a car crash late in the season that caused him to miss a game. But Cam looked like the old Cam in the season finale, and if you're a believer in momentum, it's not hard to see why Carolina is favored by a healthy margin in this game. Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are widely under-appreciated at wide receiver, but the Ryan Lindley has just shown so little in being able to deliver the football. The Panthers defensive secondary is a strength, as well.
The Pick: Well, whoever wins this game is almost certain to have 'double-digit-underdog' status when visiting either Seattle or Green Bay next week. You can't help but feel for the Cardinals, who entering the season had to hear all about Seattle and San Fran in their division. They went about their business in dominating fashion, only to lose players at the keystone position. It's good to see they were able to make the playoffs, but the Ryan Lindley is not engineered to win playoff games on the road against good defenses. Carolina manages the game, establishes their run game with Cam, Jonathan Stewart, & co., and grinds one out. Lay the points and take the Cam.
Panthers 24, Cardinals 13
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Kickoff: 8:15pm
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3
The Lowdown: Two of the familiar-est of foes meet in primetime. The AFC North rivals drop the gloves for the third time this season. If you're looking for some consistency, you got it: the Ravens won by 20 (26-6) at the matchup in Baltimore while the Steelers win by 20 (43-23) in Pittsburgh. This rival goes back a long way, and has largely been predicated on defense throughout the years. That likely won't be the case this time around, as Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and Baltimore's Joe Flacco look to feast on what has been weak defensive secondaries. Even more pressure will be on the Steelers to throw with news that superstar running back Le'Veon Bell will miss this game with a knee injury. A home team being favored by just three points indicates that oddsmakers see the teams as basically even. Neither team fears the other, both have Super Bowl winning quarterback/coach combos, and this could very well be the game of the weekend.
The Pick: Boy, the Steelers have had a weird season. Besides the Ravens, the Steelers have lost to the Bucs, Browns, Jets (really), and Saints- four teams that didn't sniff the playoffs this year. Meanwhile, they've issued beatdowns to playoff teams Carolina, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. Baltimore is a team you certainly don't want to mess with come January- and that was before they got wildman Steve Smith at receiver. Despite this, I like the Ben-led Pittsburgh attack just a little more than Baltimore's. Even without Bell in the backfield, Pittsburgh finds a way to solve their hated rival.
Steelers 34, Ravens 28
SUNDAY 1/4
No. 5 Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Kickoff: 1pm
The Line: Indianapolis by 3.5
The Lowdown: A big hint for this one appears to be October's regular season meeting, won by the Colts 27-0. Indy has Andrew Luck at quarterback, and not much anywhere else. Luck made the Colts one of the league's best pass attacks, while Cincy's Andy Dalton still seems to be something different every single week. It doesn't help the Bengals that Dalton's favorite target A.J. Green is banged up. Cincy may very well hitch its wagon to rookie running back Jeremy Hill, who has torched nearly everyone's he has encountered this season. Running the ball will take the pressure off Dalton and also keep Luck off the field. Because when he's on the field, he throws it early, deep, and often. Since a tough 0-2 stretch to open the season, the Colts have gone 11-3, with one of those losses a half-effort to Dallas late in the season after already clinching. Luck may not have much around him, but he evidently doesn't need it, either.
The Pick: Simply put, Dalton has shown nothing in his career to say he can be trusted in this one. He has melted in the playoffs each time he's been there so far, and I don't think this is a game where his weaknesses can be hidden. Luck comes out firing from the start, and this one gets decided early.
Colts 31, Bengals 10
No. 6 Detroit Lions (11-5) at No. 3 Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: Dallas by 6.5
The Lowdown: Two teams that everyone just kept expecting to fall out of the race, but never slowed down nor relented. Despite all the criticism he is destined to receive for all of time, Tony Romo leads a Cowboys offense that is actually quite terrifying. DeMarco Murray delivered insane production at running back, ditto for Dez Bryant at receiver. Throw in some Jason Witten and one of the league's best offensive lines, and Detroit can be in for some trouble. Don't shortchange the Lions offense, though, as Matt Stafford enjoys the pleasure of throwing to Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate over and over again. The Lions defense is also amongst the league's best against the run, and Ndamukong Suh avoided the suspension many expected after he tried to snap Aaron Rodgers' leg like a wishbone last week. Two high powered offenses give this game a real "expect anything and everything feel."
The Pick: Well, you never want to be the guy who picks all the home favorites on wild card weekend. What would be wild about that? The solution: find Tony Romo's game! I kid, I kid, of course. But take the Lions. At the very least, they'll cover that lofty spread, right? And I think they'll do even more.
Lions 20, Cowboys 17
Thanks for reading- enjoy the games!!
Predicted AFC playoff squads:
1. Broncos
2. Patriots
3. Bengals
4. Texans
5. Chargers
6. Colts
Real AFC playoff squads:
1. Patriots
2. Broncos
3. Steelers
4. Colts
5. Bengals
6. Ravens
Not an albatross! Texans were a big whiff and I didn't foresee the AFC North dominance, but the Chargers blew it on the last day when they had a playoff spot in the palm of their lightning bolts. But what can ya do? I'm grasping for as many straws/taking as many pats on the back as I can for the AFC picks because, the NFC on the other hand...
Predicted NFC playoff squads
1. Seahawks
2. Bears (twitching)
3. Eagles
4. Saints
5. Packers
6. Cardinals
Real NFC playoff squads
1. Seahawks
2. Packers
3. Cowboys
4. Panthers
5. Cardinals
6. Lions
Just 3 outta 6, and anybody on the planet could have predicted two of those correct teams (Seattle and Green Bay.) And those Bears....oy.
So the regular season may not have gone as planned, but that's nothing a perfect playoff pickoff (PPP) can't heal! It all starts with the four wildcard games this weekend, which all bring something great to the table and should be a real treat. Let's do this dance:
SATURDAY 1/3
No. 5 Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at No. 4 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: Carolina by 6.5
The Lowdown: Things start off with the NFL playoff's version of the Land of Misfit Toys. There is no misprint in the records above- Carolina lost more games than it won this year, but was still able to capture the NFC South crown. The Cardinals, meanwhile, got off to a scorching 9-1 start before losing both their starting quarterback AND backup quarterback. Arizona stumbled to a 2-4 finish to the season and now has something called a Ryan Lindley throwing the ball for them. Carolina had a nasty stretch where it didn't win a game from October 5-December 7 (0-6-1) but has since caught fire in going 4-0 down the stretch (albeit against very weak teams.) Nonetheless, with the division title and this playoff spot on the line, Carolina went into Atlanta's dome and eviscerated the Falcons 34-3 last week. Cam Newton had a very rocky season that had many questioning his health- and that was before a car crash late in the season that caused him to miss a game. But Cam looked like the old Cam in the season finale, and if you're a believer in momentum, it's not hard to see why Carolina is favored by a healthy margin in this game. Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are widely under-appreciated at wide receiver, but the Ryan Lindley has just shown so little in being able to deliver the football. The Panthers defensive secondary is a strength, as well.
The Pick: Well, whoever wins this game is almost certain to have 'double-digit-underdog' status when visiting either Seattle or Green Bay next week. You can't help but feel for the Cardinals, who entering the season had to hear all about Seattle and San Fran in their division. They went about their business in dominating fashion, only to lose players at the keystone position. It's good to see they were able to make the playoffs, but the Ryan Lindley is not engineered to win playoff games on the road against good defenses. Carolina manages the game, establishes their run game with Cam, Jonathan Stewart, & co., and grinds one out. Lay the points and take the Cam.
Panthers 24, Cardinals 13
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Kickoff: 8:15pm
The Line: Pittsburgh by 3
The Lowdown: Two of the familiar-est of foes meet in primetime. The AFC North rivals drop the gloves for the third time this season. If you're looking for some consistency, you got it: the Ravens won by 20 (26-6) at the matchup in Baltimore while the Steelers win by 20 (43-23) in Pittsburgh. This rival goes back a long way, and has largely been predicated on defense throughout the years. That likely won't be the case this time around, as Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and Baltimore's Joe Flacco look to feast on what has been weak defensive secondaries. Even more pressure will be on the Steelers to throw with news that superstar running back Le'Veon Bell will miss this game with a knee injury. A home team being favored by just three points indicates that oddsmakers see the teams as basically even. Neither team fears the other, both have Super Bowl winning quarterback/coach combos, and this could very well be the game of the weekend.
The Pick: Boy, the Steelers have had a weird season. Besides the Ravens, the Steelers have lost to the Bucs, Browns, Jets (really), and Saints- four teams that didn't sniff the playoffs this year. Meanwhile, they've issued beatdowns to playoff teams Carolina, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. Baltimore is a team you certainly don't want to mess with come January- and that was before they got wildman Steve Smith at receiver. Despite this, I like the Ben-led Pittsburgh attack just a little more than Baltimore's. Even without Bell in the backfield, Pittsburgh finds a way to solve their hated rival.
Steelers 34, Ravens 28
SUNDAY 1/4
No. 5 Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Kickoff: 1pm
The Line: Indianapolis by 3.5
The Lowdown: A big hint for this one appears to be October's regular season meeting, won by the Colts 27-0. Indy has Andrew Luck at quarterback, and not much anywhere else. Luck made the Colts one of the league's best pass attacks, while Cincy's Andy Dalton still seems to be something different every single week. It doesn't help the Bengals that Dalton's favorite target A.J. Green is banged up. Cincy may very well hitch its wagon to rookie running back Jeremy Hill, who has torched nearly everyone's he has encountered this season. Running the ball will take the pressure off Dalton and also keep Luck off the field. Because when he's on the field, he throws it early, deep, and often. Since a tough 0-2 stretch to open the season, the Colts have gone 11-3, with one of those losses a half-effort to Dallas late in the season after already clinching. Luck may not have much around him, but he evidently doesn't need it, either.
The Pick: Simply put, Dalton has shown nothing in his career to say he can be trusted in this one. He has melted in the playoffs each time he's been there so far, and I don't think this is a game where his weaknesses can be hidden. Luck comes out firing from the start, and this one gets decided early.
Colts 31, Bengals 10
No. 6 Detroit Lions (11-5) at No. 3 Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
Kickoff: 4:30pm
The Line: Dallas by 6.5
The Lowdown: Two teams that everyone just kept expecting to fall out of the race, but never slowed down nor relented. Despite all the criticism he is destined to receive for all of time, Tony Romo leads a Cowboys offense that is actually quite terrifying. DeMarco Murray delivered insane production at running back, ditto for Dez Bryant at receiver. Throw in some Jason Witten and one of the league's best offensive lines, and Detroit can be in for some trouble. Don't shortchange the Lions offense, though, as Matt Stafford enjoys the pleasure of throwing to Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate over and over again. The Lions defense is also amongst the league's best against the run, and Ndamukong Suh avoided the suspension many expected after he tried to snap Aaron Rodgers' leg like a wishbone last week. Two high powered offenses give this game a real "expect anything and everything feel."
The Pick: Well, you never want to be the guy who picks all the home favorites on wild card weekend. What would be wild about that? The solution: find Tony Romo's game! I kid, I kid, of course. But take the Lions. At the very least, they'll cover that lofty spread, right? And I think they'll do even more.
Lions 20, Cowboys 17
Thanks for reading- enjoy the games!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
