One for eight.
One out of eight.
12.5%.
Hours upon hours of (thoroughly enjoyable, but still) time and effort put into the round one preview and picks...only to embarrass myself in front of dozens and dozens of readers.
The first round of the hockey playoffs made college basketball's March Madness look like March Meh. The highest point total (Tampa) of a generation? Gone. The remaining three division winners (Washington, Calgary, Nashville)? Vamoose. The only result that could have been "expected" were the Bruins dispatching the Maple Leafs...and of course even that one took seven games.
What's left in all of the rubble are eight teams. Tell me if this sounds familiar, but the Boston sports team has emerged as the heavy favorite. Flanking the Bruins in the is the land of misfit toys... the three C's of Columbus, Carolina, and (Con's) Islanders. A stunning development that is equally matched in the Western Conference. The quartet of Dallas, St. Louis, Colorado, and San Jose has not won a championship in 18 years.
Long story short, save for the 2010-11 Bruins triumph and the sneaky 2005-06 Hurricanes title... there is guaranteed to be a new sheriff in town to rule the hockey universe. So how did we get here? What made the picks so horribly pitiful? Many theories are in play...but in watching the games and acquiring more background info on the teams, it appeared I put too much stock into "entire body of work" rather than "who is sizzling at the best time." Let's zoom through the eight prior matchups real quick:
Entire Season:
Tampa Bay: 128 points
Columbus: 98 points
Final 10 Regular Season Games:
Tampa Bay: 8-2
Columbus: 7-3
Entire Season:
Boston: 107 points
Toronto: 100 points
Final 10 Regular Season Games:
Boston: 6-4
Toronto: 3-7
Entire Season:
Washington: 104 points
Carolina: 99 points
Final 10 Regular Season Games:
Washington: 6-4
Carolina: 6-4
Entire Season:
NY Islanders: 103 points
Pittsburgh: 100 points
Final 10 Regular Season Games:
NY Islanders: 6-4
Pittsburgh: 6-4
So, hmmmm. Besides the Maple Leafs being a foreseeable clunker, what we see here are essentially coinflips if we went by end-of-season production. How about out west?
Entire Season:
Nashville: 100 points
Dallas: 93 points
Final 10 Regular Season Games:
Nashville: 7-3
Dallas: 6-4
Entire Season:
Winnipeg: 99 points
St. Louis: 99 points
Final 10 Regular Season Games:
Winnipeg: 4-6
St. Louis: 8-2
Entire Season:
Calgary: 107 points
Colorado: 90 points
Final 10 Regular Season Games:
Calgary: 6-4
Colorado: 7-3
Entire Season:
San Jose: 101 points
Vegas: 93 points
Final 10 Regular Season Games:
San Jose: 3-7
Vegas: 3-7
Again, seems to be a case of the final 10 games drawing the teams much closer than the original body of work. Of course, it was the "struggling-down-the-stretch" Sharks and Golden Knights that gave us a series for the ages. In any case, the April Madness that has occurred had a couple of writings on the wall that can serve a purpose for later rounds of the tournament. Which, speaking of...
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
Boston Bruins (107 points) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (98 points)
Last Round: Bruins def. Maple Leafs in 7; Blue Jackets def. Lightning in 4
Stanley Cup Odds: Bos 3:1 ; CBJ 7:1
Avengers Parallel: Captain America vs. Captain Marvel
As we will soon find out, this is probably the only Avengers "battle" that won't be laughed at. Such is life when you disrespect the underdogs a little too much. Nevertheless, this is going to be a doozie. It seems like forever ago when the Blue Jackets finished off the most shocking sweep in NHL history. They are "rewarded" with the new favorite to win it all-- and they cede home ice to Boston while doing so.
Not unlike the college basketball tourney, there is a fine line to draw here while sizing up the series. Has Columbus already staked its legacy in knocking off the Lightning? Have they been (understandably) read too much of their own headlines the past couple weeks and will now be complacent? It's hard to believe that is the case. If the Tampa Series had been an unimaginable walk in the park (we'll get to that first-round series in a sec), I'd be dubious about the Jackets. But falling behind 3-0 on the road in game one and completing that comeback? It was their statement that this wasn't a too little, too late scenario with their pieced-together supersquad.
For Boston, it's been there done that. Tampa revealed itself to be soft and non-resilient when things got tough. The Bruins will make no such mistakes with their playoff experience and pedigree. Even so, will it be enough? Columbus came into the tournament having the desperation of a team full of upcoming free agents, but lacking the solidarity that they could perform as a full squad. Now they have both. And though I may squirm later on looking back at it, I don't think their all-in train is done quite yet.
The Pick: Blue Jackets in 6 games
New York Islanders (103 points) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (99 points)
Last Round: Islanders def. Penguins in 4; Hurricanes def. Capitals in 7
Stanley Cup Odds: NYI 7:1 ; CAR 7:1
Avengers Parallel: Ant Man vs. Rocket Raccoon
Well here's where the chaos ensues. The thought of Ant Man fighting Rocket Raccoon may break box office records in its own right, as it would be a trainwreck you couldn't avert your eyes from. But unreal as it may seem, one of these teams is going to the Eastern Conference final. These are the two teams that had opponents saying "man I hope we draw them at some point." No star power, no real success the last decade, hell...one doesn't even have a real home arena.
But now? The Islanders trailed less that five total minutes in their four-game evisceration of the Penguins while the Hurricanes went on the road in a game seven to dispatch the defending champions. Similar to Columbus, the Islanders have had the blessing and curse of kicking their feet up for a full week while Carolina and Washington beat the hell out of each other. But playing their best hockey, did they really want all that time off to lose their mojo? In what will be a much different feeling this round, the Islanders will have no excuses early in the series. They have exponentially more rest and home ice advantage.
They better use it to their advantage. As we saw in round one, Carolina's home fans and atmosphere are nothing to be trifled with. The defending champs looked downright shook as the Hurricanes outscored Washington 12-3 in the Raleigh matchups. The Islanders marched into Pittsburgh and pounded what looked like an uninterested, demoralized Penguin team. No matter the scenario going in, they will enjoy no such luxury in Carolina.
Count me as one that thinks that rest will prevail and that Carolina won't have quite enough in the tank for another grueling series. Additionally, when in doubt you go with the goaltending. Robin Lehner held the Penguins to six total goals in four games. The Islanders will take their first few gut punches and moments of adversity, and the Barclays Center won't quite measure up to Nassau Coliseum. If the Columbus train isn't quite finished, neither is this Long Island little engine that could.
The Pick: Islanders in 7 games
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
St. Louis Blues (99 points) vs. Dallas Stars (93 points)
Last Round: Blues def. Jets in 6; Stars def. Predators in 6
Stanley Cup Odds: STL 4:1 ; DAL: 9:1
Avengers Parallel: Vision vs. Hawkeye
With the Blue Jackets being so utterly scary in their potential, this series seems to have the "safest" favorite in St. Louis. So if the first round were any indication, the Blues should just start packing their golf clubs now. I can't speak enough of how impressive these teams were in round one, flipping the bird to "home ice advantage" and taking out two of the top contenders entering the tournament.
Now that they're facing off, keep an eye on the goaltending. Dallas' Ben Bishop and St. Louis' Jordan Binnington each give their teams belief they can win any game. With a matchup like that, give me the veteran that has more playoff scars to dwell on. With a west full of upstart teams, I might as well shoot for the moon...because even if you fall short, you still have a place in the Stars.
The Pick: Stars in 6 games
San Jose Sharks (101 points) vs. Colorado Avalanche (90 points)
Last Round: Sharks def. Golden Knights in 7; Avalanche def. Flames in 5
Stanley Cup Odds: SJ 5:1 ; COL 8:1
Avengers Parallel: Drax vs. Winter Soldier
Much like the Islanders/Hurricanes series above, do you prefer the team that's had the rest or the team that's been locked in? The Sharks' game 7 against Vegas will be remembered forever, but at what price? (Warning more disrespect coming:) but surveying the Western teams remaining, the forever-knocking-on-the-door Sharks may finally see their path opening up.
Standing in the way first are the young, "why not us?" Avalanche. Their youth and pep will have to serve them well early in the series, as stealing a game in San Jose will be key to springing the upset. I expect this one to be fun, fast, and probably treat us to multiple overtime games. But in the end, the grizzled vets of the Sharks find enough in their (hehe...) tank.
The Pick: Sharks in 5 games
Enjoy the games!
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